We have been saying all along that one of the Giants major free agency needs is to add another OF bat, preferably one that hits LH. Most analysts say that OF has to be a CF, but the CF free agent market is as dry as a bone now that Brandon Nimmo and Kevin Kiermeier have signed. What if the OF the Giants need is already on the roster in the person of Lamonte Wade Jr.? Let's break it down:
Here is a list of the potential OF upgrades left on the market:
Micheal Conforto OF. DOB: 3/1/1993. B-L, T-R. 6'1", 215 lbs.
2021: .232/.344/.384, 14 HR, 12.3 BB%, 21.7 K%, fWAR= 1.4.
2022: DNP(Injury). Shoulder injury occurring in an offseason workout requiring surgery).
2023(Steamer Projection): .244/.340/.418, 14 HR, 11.1 BB%, 21.7 K%, 479 PA, fWAR= 1.6.
2021 was already a down year for Conforto who was already looking at a possible 1 year "pillow" contract before his injury and shoulder surgery. He could be one of the biggest bargains of 2023 but Steamer thinks it's going to be another down year and possibly the downside of his career.
Brandon Drury OF/IF. DOB: 8/21/1992. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 230 lbs.
2022: .263/.320/.492, 28 HR, 6.7 BB%, 22.2 K%, 568 PA, fWAR= 3.0.
2023(Steamer Projection): .248/.303/.428, 21 HR, 6.4 BB%, 21.5 K%, 563 PA, fWAR= 1.6.
Drury had a great season but his prior cumulative fWAR was 0.6 and his offensive numbers regressed significantly in the second half after his trade from the bandbox in Cincy to the Padres. Steamer does not believe the breakout is sustainable.
Andrew Benintendi OF. DOB: 7/6/1994. B-L, T-L. 5'9", 180 lbs.
2022: .304/.373/.399, 5 HR, 8 SB, 10.0 BB%, 14.8 K%, 521 PA, fWAR= 2.8.
2023(Steamer Projection): .268/.338/.409, 13 H, 9 SB, 567 PA, fWAR= 2.3.
Hard to know what to make of Benintendi who is coming off a season with strong plate discipline but his power, which was never his strong suit anyway, cratered. Steamer projects a modest rebound in power but is Oracle Park and the NL West the place for that to happen?
Jurickson Profar OF. DOB: 2/20/1993. B-B, T-R. 6'0", 184 lbs.
2022: .243/.331/.391, 15 HR, 5 SB, 11.1 BB%, 15.7 K%, 658 PA, fWAR= 2.5.
2023(Steamer Projection): .242/.326/.390, 15 HR, 7 SB, 580 PA, fWAR= 1.5.
Another player coming off a career year. Steamer thinks the slash line is sustainable but projects a regression in playing time.
Joey Gallo OF. DOB: 11/19/1993. B-L, T-R. 6'5", 250 lbs.
2021: .199/.351/.458, 38 HR, 18.0 BB%, 34.6 K%, 616 PA, fWAR= 4.2.
2022: .160/.280/.357, 19 HR, 13.7 BB%, 39.8 K%, 410 PA, fWAR= 0.6.
2023(Steamer Projection): .188/.311/.396, 20 HR, 14.3 BB%, 35.6 K%, 429 PA, fWAR= 1.1.
Gallo doesn't seem to be on anyone's radar but an extreme true outcomes guy might may have some intrigue for FZ. He should be looking for a 1 year "pillow" contract. I would point out that the Steamer projection would be for 27 HR over 600+ PA's. A one-dimensional player like this has to hit close to 40 HR's to have any value. The only place he's done that is with the Rangers. Again, Oracle Park and the NL West might be particularly unfriendly to a player like him. Hey! Pair him up with Bart at the bottom of the lineup and they could be The Joeys!
I could go on but if you can think of an available outfielder with a better projection, let me know.
So, what about in-house options?
Lamonte Wade Jr. OF/1B. DOB: 1/1/1994. B-L, T-L. 6'1", 205 lbs.
2021: .253/.326/.482, 18 HR, 6 SB, 8.7 BB%, 23.4 K%, BABIP= .289, 381 PA, fWAR= 1.6.
2022: .207/.305/.359, 8 HR, 10.4 BB%, 20.3 K%, BABIP= .233, 251 PA, fWAR= 0.2.
2023(Steamer Projection): .228/.324/.390, 11 HR, BABIP- .266, 363 PA, fWAR= 0.7.
Wade Jr. showed flashes of his 2021 form last season but was never able to find traction after two very long IL stays for a bone bruise on his knee. Although his average exit velocity was down, his peak of 109.3 MPH was the same as his 2021 peak. Projecting a BABIP closer to his 2021 and a rebound in exit velocity with good health and you get a player who is as good or better for a small fraction of the price of signing a free agent.
Blake Sabol C/OF. DOB: 1/7/1998. B-L, T-R. 6'4", 225 lbs.
2022 AA: .281/.347/.486, 14 HR, 9 SB, 9.2 BB%, 26.0 K%, 412 PA.
2022 AAA: .296/.426/.543, 5 HR, 16.8 BB%, 21.8 K%, 101 PA.
2023(Steamer Projection): .243/.314/.403, 8.7 BB%, 25.9 K%, 143 PA, fWAR= 0.7.
Note the fWAR goes up to 2.8 with 600 PA's.
Once Judge and Nimmo were signed, but OF FA market cratered. At this point in-house options are probably as good or better and probably better than emptying out the farm system for Bryan Reynolds. The Giants should concentrate time, energy and resources to what's left of the pitching market to bolster the rotation and bullpen.
Superb analysis!
ReplyDeleteNo hope for Heliot?
Is 2023 make-or-break?
For what they project, Steamer might as well have no projection.
Has the One-Time Wunderkind flamed out at 23?
2023 is a make or break year for Heliot. It's not looking good from here.
DeleteI'm sold.
ReplyDeleteI think you can extend that to the leading SS's still on the board, not because they're not good but because they're not worth the long -term expense.
I’m interested in analysis on Sean Manaea
ReplyDeleteFor those who want Zaidi's scalp, go to the Giants MLB Top Prospects List in 2018 and see what he inherited:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mlb.com/prospects/giants/
To make it simple: (1) Heliot Ramos, (4) Austin Slater, (16) Gregory Santos, (19) Melvin Adon, & (20) Seth Corry are still, at a minimum, associated with the Giants.
Not much there, you think?
If you look at the 2022 30 Top Prospects, since FZ, (18) Heliot & (24) Santos are still on the list but have made appearances for SF with Santos likely to stick. We’re not sure about Ramos.
Of the other 28, an FZ pick, (22) Hunter Bishop, is probably the least likely to be much of anything.
The rest are bona fide prospects and a lot of them are quite good..
Currently playing for or associated with the Giants but not signed by FZ are, Brandon Crawford, Logan Webb, Camilo Doval, Joey Bart, Tyler Rogers, David Villar, Bryce Johnson, Randy Rodriguez, & Keaton Winn. 9 players. Next year one will be gone (Crawford), and at least one (pick him) will be gone.
5 or 6 inherited in 2019 still producing. Somewhat.
The team FZ "took over" had had consecutive losing seasons in 2017 (64-98) and 2018 (73-89) and wasn't much better in 2019 (77-85).
How much of the 2021 team did he inherit: Posey, Crawford, Belt, & Longoria (Moronta was but a shadow of the Moronta of 2017 & 2018). Neither Belt nor Longoria played 100 games in the season.
The last hurrah of the "old guys" – Belt didn't make it to the NLDS, Longoria delivered a winning HR, and FZ's acquisition at the deadline led the team in hitting. Webb pitched well.
The o;d guys, they're all gone, everyone next year.
The 2022 team had it's up & downs: started well, ended well, and was a M*A*S*H unit between – never well.
Don't blame Zaidi for those guys who didn't want to come to SF, repeated constantly: Harper, Stanton, Judge. Or even Nimo.
To paraphrase Gertrude Stein on Oakland: "There is no there, there" – what Zaidi got in SF was "There is no here, here."
It’s a sports fan right to grouse, but pick carefully: the problem is SF is not Zaidi.
There are definitely scattered bright spots in the Giants farm system and I would say it is marginally better than when FZ took over. It's hardly a gushing pipeline of talent and a significant portion of what's there is made up of players acquired when Bobby Evans was still GM. The failure(so far) of 3 consecutive first round draft picks is holding the system back.
DeleteGood point, especially Bishop and probably Bednar, but premature on Bailey. Crawford? Hope he pitches better than he hits!
DeleteSeriously, first round Giants picks have been generally poor since Panik in 2011! Jury is out on Ramos (2017) and Bart (2018) but not trending like you would want for a 1st round pick.
With no first round in 2016, Giants (almost) made up for it with the 2nd round until 2018 when Evans decided the Giants just had to have Andrew McCutchen...