Welp, turns out all those feel-good stories about Aaron Judge OF coming back home were a charade to get the Yankees to up their offer. 9 yr/$360 M. Pretty sure the Giants at least matched that offer. Turns out the Padres were in the mix too and reports say Judge had bigger offers than what he signed with the Yanks for.
No question this is a crushing disappointment to the Giants fanbase. I am disappointed! On the other hand, this could be a long term blessing in disguise. Judge is far from a lock to remain healthy for 9 years and the backend of this contract is as high risk as they come. Although you can make a case for Judge to remain productive into his late 30's, it's more likely he won't.
So where do FZ and the Giants go now? Do they put on a full court press for Carlos Correa SS? Do they look for more Mitch Haniger OF level players who won't be cheap but have some upside and will sign for less money and fewer years? Do they pull back and let the market come to them like they did with Joc Pederson OF/DH, Alex Cobb RHP and Jake Junis RHP? Those were actually really good pickups last Hot Stove League season. FZ just didn't finish the job with a couple of solid bullpen pieces. Does he look to the trade market?
In the meantime, let's all raise a middle finger to Aaron Judge and the Yankees.
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The Giants did sign Mitch Haniger OF to a 3 yr/$43 M contract in what looked like the first of a double-barreled signing but should have been a warning sign of bad news on the Aaron Judge front. Haniger is a really good player when he's healthy but has missed a whole lot of time over the years to a variety of injuries. Last year he was limited to 57 games by a high ankle sprain. FZ is well known to see injury history as factor that creates undervalued commodities. None of Haniger's injuries are ones that should become chronic and FZ is betting he can remain healthy for a full season and approach the 39 HR's he put up a couple of years ago. Now, if there is a comparable lefty OF bat on the market, FZ should go after that.
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MLB had it's first draft lottery last night and the Giants remained in their #16 slot so that's where they will be picking. Keep that in mind as we continue scouting the 2023 MLB draft.
It is becoming clear that the Giants now have a track record of failure to land the big fish. Harper. Judge. Soto. This includes big fish of their own (Gausman, Rodon). At this point, we should consider the limitations that Mr. Zaidi brings to the table. He cut his teeth in the Athletics organization - the patron saint of the dumpster divers. Then on to the Dodgers, where he showed a talent for finding hidden talent (Justin Turner, Chris Taylor), but Andrew Friedman had the real talent to land the big fish (Mookie Betts, Trevor Bauer) that separates the big timers from the also rans. Now, with the Giants, more of the same. He is fine in finding the overlooked (Yasztremski, Estrada) and the question marks (Gausman, Rodon, Hanniger) but not the fellow you bring in to close the deal (see Dombrowski, Dave). Not sure if it by design, or simply a limitation, but one thing is now clear: The next big fish Zaidi lands for the Giants will be the first.
ReplyDeleteYou forgot about Ohtani! The inability to sign any of these big fish in previous years is probably contributing to the failure to sign them now. The Phillies weren’t very good after signing Harper until this year bit having him on the roster may have attracted Schwarber and Castellanos and most definitely helped them get Trea Turner. Same with Hosmer in SD to a certain extent in order to attract Machado.
DeleteThis is what kills me about the short term deals. There is no continuity from year to year in the eyes of the players. I see why FZ thinks its smart but he is just looking at spreadsheets and doesn’t understand that these are people not computer chips or blocks of cheese.
It will take an extreme overpay for someone like Correa to come here and unfortunately I think he is the only big fish that would be willing to come here. Any negotiation they engage in with a big fish at this point has to feel like we are being used to drive the price up. Quite the conundrum for a guy that should probably be running a tech company instead of a baseball team.
Depending on what the Giants do with SuperShortStops, Haniger could be the best non-pitcher Giant next year.
ReplyDeleteHis 3-year deal certainly fits the FZ model but he won't get one of The SS's or Nimmo with a 3-year deal.
Although missing out on Judge is disappointing, one can imagine sighs of relief in the front office. Although the immediate lineup and box office would be improved, $360M for today's best player is a lot of money.
A whole lot!
At $6M per bWAR point, that would need 60 total points or 40 at $9M/point which is not unrealistic, but not delivering a WS win would be reminiscent of what?
Barry's amazing 12-year run totaling 104.6 WAR (8.7 average) which won 3 Divisions and 1 WS appearance. The WS flags came with Pitching, Posey (5.3 average bWAR/year), and solid, average Players.
The Yankees can celebrate but there is no apparent dynasty there – and most likely wouldn't be in SF had Judge brought his talents.
It's a Team game.
Since the Giants lost out on Judge. They should go all out on resigning Rodon. There's a risk, but at least he showed he can pitch a full season now.
ReplyDeleteThere is no joy in Mudville. Which is literally true, as Stockton was the Mudville of the poem.
ReplyDeleteNone of the shortstops excite me, in this price range.
Maybe Senga and another outfielder similar to Haniger?
'Betting' someone can remain healthy (for a full season, or any length of time)...
ReplyDeleteLottery buying kind of betting? 'Big Short' type of betting (after crunching numbers)?
Which one? Are there any inefficiencies to exploit here value-vs-injury risk front? More spending on better medical experts? Better trainers?
I also want to point that if you pay X-million dollars to a player and he is out, it's not just X- million dollars lost, but a chance at winning. And to get higher odds of production, that is, to get a more reliable outcome, you have to pay for that. (In the stock market, a company that can consistently make money is likely to be valued higher than one that does not as consistently).
So, a serious team will pay for more reliable projections.
A cheap team, a not so serious team, will find value in not as reliable projections.
Life is like that. You pay for reliability.
I’m glad they didn’t sign Judge since it probably would have bought FZ another few years. For the smartest guy in baseball to embarrass himself and the club this much it should mean one to two more years of putting up with before he’s gone. Based on the reactions from everyone on 680 today and every Giants fan I know, it will be candlestick park crowds at Oracle next year. Giants fans deserve so much more than a nerd without a wallet pulling strings.
ReplyDeleteGoing on year five under Farhan and I have seen more than enough. every team in baseball can figure out how to sign superstars and FZ fails at drafting, developing, trading, and signing high level talent. The Giants have become a joke of an organization that players use to get more money from the team they really want to play for. This needs to be the nail in Farhan’s coffin and make sure that coffin is made of cardboard like the house Farhan has built!
ReplyDeleteDon't be sad fellow Giants fans, Farhan has already found that 2nd OF he was looking for and the lefty Doc requested! Blake Sabol -_-
ReplyDeleteBlake Sabol OF/C: DOB: 1/07/1998. Age: 24. 6'4" 225lbs B-L, T-R Drafted 2019, Pittsburgh Pirates, Round: 7, Overall Pick: 214
2022 AA/AAA: .284/.363/.497, 19HR, 75 RBI, 513PA.
Rule 5 pick by the Reds from the Pirates this year, traded to Giants for cash considerations. Not sure if that means he has to go back to CIN or PIT if the Giants decide not to keep him on the roster. Seems like an interesting snag, dude raked in the minors last year. I would perhaps call this a savvy pickup in the R5 draft, but Farhan could not have had worse timing with this move... David Laurila had an interview with Sabol on FanGraphs recently, if you'd like to get to know him:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pirates-prospect-blake-sabol-has-a-plus-bat-and-pittsburgh-connections/
I like the Haniger pickup, but it has shades of the Tommy La Stella signing all over it... a guy who could be really useful with a strong bat (with more pop than La Stella) that the Giants could use in the lineup, but is one "freak" accident away from becoming a drag on the roster, not only in terms of a roster spot, but also production. I like Haniger a lot and from all accounts from the M's fans that I know he seems like a strong club house presence and leader. They're bummed he's gone. Doesn't surprise me to learn he's from Mountain View, what with the Giants pension for local guys. I expect 25-30 bombs with a .250 BA for the year, anything more would be great.
The rats are leaving the ship!
ReplyDeleteIn the years immediately before Zaidi the Giants were terrible – they finished dead last in 2017, 32 games under .500.
What new star not named Webb came up through the system to be part of the 107-win 2021 team? No one except a couple of RPs.
How close was the team in 2021? 1 run in Game 5. They took the Dodgers to the limit - without Brandon Belt, Giants leader in HRs (29) & OPS (.975), strongly among the very best players on the team. Might he alone have been enough to change the outcome?
Was the 2022 collapse FZ's fault? What should he have done to improve the "best team" in baseball? He should have known Posey would quit and the Brandons would leak badly.
The big complaint: he hasn't signed a new great star! Judge was never coming to the Giants: he was playing the Yankees for the best contract he could get – plus he'll wear the "C" Captain of the Bronx Bombers. Word is that there was a larger offer, but Judge wanted the Pinstripes.
And Faidi didn't sign Harper in 2019 to a team that had nothing to offer! Except California's tax rates.
Someone said he didn't sign Soto! Soto didn't pick anyone – he was traded by his team for a bundle.
Folks, the off-season isn't open. If FZ can convince one of the SS's and Nimmo, and a pitcher, they won't be Best in the West, but they may well be a playoff team.
Rodón? Averaged less than 6 innings per start, Giants were 16-15 in his 31 starts. Lots of BP activity.
Cashman was handed an extension just before sealing the deal with Judge from Italy no less and maybe Farhan should be handed a pink slip after failing to sign him. The team isn’t winning with any consistency and the fans are showing up less and less which isn’t going to change after this. That would get most conventional GM’s fired and for one that is this far outside the box it should be an easy call if they hadn’t made this guy king of the organization. Now we have to wait and see how long ownership is willing to stick with a guy that is poised to lose hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue because his genius plan has failed. Tick tock tick tock
ReplyDelete2017-2019: 2 years Before Zaidi (BZ) & His first year in charge
Delete64-98 73-89 77-85
2020-2022: with FZ
29-31 108-55 81-81
Take a look at SF's Top Prospects in 2018: the best were Slater and Ramos
Now? Ramos is 'way down the list and look now: there are many, 10? 20? who will be playing for the Giants in the next 4 years.
...and now Bogie to the Padres. Wow!
ReplyDelete