Late breaking news last evening: Xander Bogaerts SS, widely believed to be about to re-sign with the Red Sox agreed to a deal with the Padres for 11 yr/$280 M. Wow! Same song third verse! Bogaerts is a good player coming off the highest fWAR(6.1) of his career, helped by the first positive defensive metrics per Fangraphs since 2018. He has average power but is an on-base machine. Still, he's a SS and this contract takes him through his age 40 season which feels like defacto deferred salary. And what's going to happen to the Padres in a few season? This is a franchise that just a few years ago was crying poor mouth and holding firesales. They already have a very questionable huge contract with Fernando Tatis Jr. although Manny Machado's contract looks good so far.
So, with three of the "Big 4" SS's off the market, is this Carlos Correa or bust for the Giants? Is Correa a player you want to give a 13 yr contract to(he's 2 years younger than Bogie and Trea Turner)? In some ways, Correa seems like a better player that Aaron Judge to build around and possibly more likely to remain productive late into his contract but still, there are not a lot of 40 yo SS's around and these guys offensive value does not play nearly as well at less skilled positions. There is a very old saying in baseball: Sometimes the best deals are the ones not made.
I am sure those of you on the Judge or bust train won't be impressed here, but there are still lots of players out there who would be clear upgrades for the Giants who should be available for less money and less years.
Brandon Nimmo OF- On base machine. Versatile lefty-hitting OF. Some injury history.
Michael Conforto OF- lefty bat who needs a 1 year bounceback contract.
Andrew Benintendi OF- Power challenged but an on-base machine. Another lefty bat to balance Haniger.
Brandon Drury IF/OF- Solid bat, versatile defender.
Jurickson Profar IF/OF- Decent bat, versatile defender.
Wil Myers OF- Underrated player who has killed the Giants over the years. Just don't overpay like the Padres did last contract.
Lots of SP's still out there including Kodai Senga RHP, Chris Bassitt RHP. Giants rumored to be interested in Sean Manaea LHP. Could they help Thor get some velocity back on a Gausman/Rodon type deal?
And once again, Sean Hjelle RHP and Kyle Harrison LHP should be ready to step up from within the organization this season.
Rather than committing 11 years and over $300 M to a guy with some baggage, I guess I'm on the let the market come to FZ camp. Who knows, 2021 happened with a ragtag bunch of undervalued players. Getting into the postseason is not a high hurdle.
These are ridiculous numbers. Are they counting on inflation?
ReplyDeleteI agree, it reminds me of the first few rounds of an auction fantasy draft where everybody spends whatever it takes to get the top 20-30 players and autodrafts the rest at $1 per player.
DeleteEven if you are a billionaire, $360 M is still not a small percentage of the stash.
DeleteSwanson is still out there and would be my choice over Correa for a few reasons but mostly because he will cost much less. Nimmo or Conforto and Drury is a decent player as well who could man 1B for us on a reasonable deal. Pitching however is something nobody has really talked about and maybe this isn’t the year to spend big money since Rodon is the only one left that would qualify as top of the rotation. It may make sense to get Senga if he wants to come here but obviously none of us have a clue if he will be a good MLB pitcher. Right now for me it would take Swanson, Nimmo/Conforto, Drury and maybe Bassitt to put this team in a position where they will be watchable this season!
ReplyDeleteI guess I am pessimistic on Swanson just because I doubt he would consider playing in SF. Isn't he originally from the Southeast, went to college at Vanderbilt and pro career so far in ATL?
DeleteMoney talks and we could offer him more than ATL is willing. Might be around $225 for 9 or something like that which seems loco but we need talent and can overpay. Gotta start with someone to build around and Swanson is pretty good!
DeleteWhen you think back at the 3 WS championships most likely you remember great pitching and guys like Panda, Pence, and Posey. One overlooked strength of all 3 teams was the top 2 spots in the lineup. Whether it was Torres and Sanchez, pagan abd Scutaro, or Blanco and Panik, they all set the table. Nimmo appears to be the Best leadoff hitter left and one of the best in the game. Swanson would be a great #2 bat as well. I could live with this lineup and actually feel good about the off-season:
ReplyDeleteNimmo CF
Swanson SS
Haniger LF
Joc/Davis DH
Drury 1B
Craw 3B
Estrada 2B
Yaz/Slater RF
Bart C
Judge was never going to leave the Yankees. He and his agent simply used the Giants to get his signing price up! I wonder if FZ knew that and played along to appease the fans.
ReplyDeleteGiant fans should be grateful that he stayed with the Yankees. He was never going to be a great HR slugger (Barry) at Oracle.
We can be a very good to excellent team with superior pitching, excellent defense and decent hitting.
Let's spend the money allegedly targeted to Judge and get 3 or 4 players who can better help our overall needs.
Having one high priced slugger who may bring bring more fans in the short run...is not likely to necessarily bring SF another Championship...(again, see Barry)!
I would normally agree about letting the market come back to FZ, but the owners and FZ have said that they would pursue high end free agents, so they owe it to the fans and themselves to pursue Correa since he is a star player who could make the team better. I know they would have to figure out the Crawford situation 1st. The question is would Correa want to play in SF. Oracle Park is a tough place for hitters to succeed. I don't blame the owners or FZ for losing out on Judge. They gave him an incredible offer and Judge played the system well to get the Yankees to increase their offer, since he clearly wanted to go back to the Yankees.
ReplyDeleteThe Brandon Nimmo contract, 8 years 162 million, was an eye opener. Like everyone I’m starved for upgrades on the roster but contracts like that feel outrageous. Will be interesting to see how Farhan handles this current market given the external(internal too?) pressure he must be feeling
ReplyDeleteTalent is rare
ReplyDeletePockets are deep
Good sense does pare
Quite hard to keep
FZ will put in a good effort on Correa but lose to a 12 year/ $384M deal from another leaky pocket Owner.
DeleteHe'll toy with Rodón but will lose to a 6 year/$200M deal.
Giants will end up with some solid but unspectacular signings and we'll hear loud chants for Zaidi's scalp and idle threats not to go to SF games.
Does anyone wonder if it's actually FZ's fault he's not spending OPM? Maybe Ownership has something to say about how much of their fortunes will be frittered.
Someone wise recently said:
"Even if you are a billionaire, $360 M is still not a small percentage of the stash."
Given they own the stadium, losing a million butts-in-the-seats may well offset an extra $50M of annual payroll, especially after the bloom is off the rose midway through an outrageous contract.
FZ got the job because he convinced ownership he could build a winner without tanking and without spending tons of money. He promised he would manage through the years with “bad contracts” and come out with a strong farm, lower payroll, and a winning team. He then turned around and resigned a few guys who were part of the “bad contracts”, overpaid for a few pitchers who had career years, and couldn’t convince Posey to stay another few years. It isn’t all his fault but he wouldn’t have gotten the job if he had told the owners he wanted to spend a ton of money and tank for top picks to get better. More than not being able to land high end FA talent, FZ’s lack of ability to get the farm where he claimed he could is the reason he should be on the hot seat.
DeleteSorry, you're wrong: the Farm was zip at the end of 2018.
DeleteIt's pretty strong now.
On MLB.com, Anon, you can look at the TOP 30 prospects in 2018, B,Z, and look at it now.
Seriously, now you could argue that most of the 30 could make the Show. Only TWO of the pre-Zaidi MLB Giant Top 30 have made it and the BEST is Austin Slater!
I'm fine with giving David Villar and J D Davis a chance to contribute next year, they seemed to shine at least medium bright last year, Sean Manaea seems reasonable pickup also.
ReplyDelete