How Accurate Are MLBTR Free Agent Contract Estimates?

Every year MLBTR posts a list of their top 50 MLB free agents with predictions of what their contract will be both in number of years and in total money.  This is a list of MLBTR's top 50 free agents who have already signed with a comparison to what the players actually received in their contracts.  Coloumns will be Name, Team, Predicted Years, Actual Years, Variance of Actual Years from Predicted Years, Predicted Money($), Actual Money($), Variance of Actual Money from Predicted Money, Percent Variance(+/-).  At the end, we'll post Average Variances and Average Absolute Value of Variances and see how accurate MLBTR is in prediction free agent contracts.

Corey Seager(Rangers):  10 yr.  10 yr.   0 yr.  $305 M. $325 M. +$20 M. +6.6%.

Kevin Gausman(Blue Jays):  6 yr.  5 yr.  -1 yr.  $138 M.  $110 M.  -$28 M. -25.5%. 

Marcus Semien(Rangers):  6 yr.  7 yr.  +1 yr.  $138 M.   $175 M.  +$37 M.  +$26.8%. 

Robbie Ray(Mariners):  5 yr.  5 yr.  0 yr.  $130 M.  $115 M.  -$15 M.  -11.5%.

Max Scherzer(Mets):  3 yr.  3 yr.  0 yr.  $120 M.  $130 M.  +$10 M.  +8.3%.

Marcus Stroman(Cubs):  5 yr.  3 yr.  -2 yr.  $110 M.  $71 M.  - $29 M.  -26.3%.

Javier Baez(Tigers):  5 yr.  6 yr.  +1 yr.  $100 M.  $140 M.  +$40M.  +40%.

Starling Marte(Mets):  4 yr.  4 yr.  0 yr.  $80 M.  $78 M.  -$2 M.  -2.5%.

Eduardo Rodriguez(Tigers):  5 yr.  5 yr.  0 yr.  $70 M.  $77 M.  +$7 M. +10%.

Chris Taylor(Dodgers):  4 yr.  4 yr.  0 yr.  $64 M.  $60 M.  -$4 M.  -6.3%.

Raisel Iglesias(Angels):  4 yr.  4 yr.  0 yr.  $56 M.  $58 M.  +$2 M. +3.6%.

Jonathan Gray(Rangers):  4 yr.  4 yr.  0 yr.  $56 M.  $56 M.  0 M.  0%.

Anthony DeSclafani(Giants):  3 yr.  3 yr.  0 yr.  $42 M.  $36 M.  -6 M.  -14.3%.

Justin Verlander(Astros):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $40 M.  $50 M.   +10 M.  +25%.

Avisail Garcia(Marlins):  3 yr. 4 yr.  +1 yr.  $36 M.  $53 M.  +$17 M.  +47.2%.

Alex Wood(Giants):  3 yr.  2 yr.  - 1 yr.  $30 M.  $25 M.  - $5 M.  -16.7%.  

Steven Matz(Cardinals):  3 yo.  4 yr.  +1 yr.  $27 M.  $44 M.  +$17 M.  +62.8%.

Kendall Graveman(White Sox):  3 yr.  3 yr.  0 yr.  $27 M.  $24 M.  -$3 M.  -$11.1%.

Mark Canha(Mets):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $24 M, $26.5 M.  +$2.5 M.  +10.4%.

Eduardo Escobar(Mets):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $20 M.  $20 M.  0%.

Brandon Belt(Giants):  1 yr(accepts QO).  1 yr(QO).  0 yr.  $18.4 M(QO).  $18.4 M(QO).  $0.  0%.

Noah Syndergaard(Angels):  1 yr(accepts QO).  1 yr.  0 yr.  $18.4 M(QO).  $21 M.  +$3 M.  +14.1%.

Corey Knebel(Phillies):  1 yr.  1 yr.  0 yr.  $18 M.  $10 M.  -$8 M.  -44.4%.

Alex Cobb(Giants):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $16 M.  $20 M.  +$4 M.  +25%.

Hector Neris(Astros):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $14 M.  $14 M.  $0.  0%.

Mark Melancon(D'Backs):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $14 M.  $14 M.  $0.  0%.

Corey Kluber(Rays):  1 yr.  1 yr.  0 yr.  $12 M.  $8 M.  -$4 M.  -33.3%.

Yan Gomes(Cubs):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $10 M.  $13 M.  +3 M.  +30%.

Andrew Heaney(Dodgers):  1 yr.  1 yr.  0 yr.  $6 M.  $8.5 M.  +$2.5 M.  +41.7%.

Average Variance= +$2.5 M

Average Variance(absolute values)= $9.2 M

Average Percent Variance(% of predicted)= 4.9%.

Average Percent Variance(absolute value, % of predicted)= 18%.  

Cumulative Percent Variance= +4.1%

Cumulative Percent Variance(absolute value)= $15.4%

Conclusions:  MLBTR slightly underestimated the overall market.  While variance for individual contracts was fairly high, they overestimated and underestimated approximately equally so their average estimated contract is quite close.  They got the number of years right most of the time and of the ones they missed on most were by just one year.

Based on MLBTR's estimates, it appears both Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood gave significant discounts to stay with the Giants while they slightly overpaid Alex Cobb to sign coming from the Angels.  And of course, almost everybody thought the Giants would give Brandon Belt a QO and that he would accept.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 1

 Round 1(#10 overall):  Hunter Bishop OF.  DOB:  6/25/1998.  B-L, T-R.  6'5", 210 lbs.  

2019 Minors(2 teams):  .229/.438/.429, 5 HR, 7 SB, 38 BB, 39 K, 146 PA.

2021 Minors(3 teams):  .133/.286/.178, 8 BB, 22 K, 56 PA.

2021 AFL:  .262/.373/.381, 6 BB, 20 K, 42 AB.  

Bishop is a guy with huge tools who was drafted out of a big junior season with Arizona St.  Potential red flags in college included high K rates and struggles against stronger competition.  We probably can't make too much out of his initial pro season which produced an extreme three true outcomes batting line.  2021 was mostly lost to injury.  His bat showed signs of life in the Arizona Fall League but still with an extreme K rate and the only HR he hit was in the Fall Stars game.  It's too early to call Bishop a bust, but 2022 will be a huge, almost make-or-break year for him.

What has to be frustrating for Giants fans is that Alek Manoah RHP was taken by the Blue Jays with the next pick and he's already pitching like a near-ace in the major leagues.  Bryson Stott SS was taken 4 picks later by the Phillies and hit .301 with 10 HR's in AA ball.  The Mariners got George Kirby RHP at #20.  He looks like he should break into the majors in 2022.

*************************************************************************************

Most MLB drafts are made or broken at the top of the draft.  The Giants first two picks in this draft, Bishop and Wyatt have yet to find anything resembling traction in their professional development.  The most promising picks are a couple of bullpen arms from deep in the draft.  Of the hitters, Armani Smith shows the most promise and he's not exactly a sure thing.  Again, too early to write it off, but this draft is on bust watch.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 2

 Round 2:  Logan Wyatt 1B.  DOB:  11/15/1997.  B-R, T-L.  6'4", 230 lbs.

2021 A+:  .238/.398/.295, 20.1 BB%, 18 K%, 289 PA.

The latest "God of Walks".  The walk rates are fantastic and the K rate is also quite good.  The problem here is the complete absence of power, even doubles power.  He's a 1B/DH only guy and the power simply has to come or he doesn't have a role on a MLB roster.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Two Minor League Deals

The Giants added a couple of minor league deals reported yesterday.    Let's break it down.

Bryan Brickhouse RHP.  DOB:  6/6/1992.  6'0", 195 lbs.  

2021 AA(Dodgers):  1-3, 3.45, 60 IP, 7.65 K/9, 2.40 BB/9(10 Starts in 19 Appearances).  

Brickhouse pitched 6 seasons in the Royals organization since 2012(DNP 2016 and 2017).  He was plagued by wildness until he hooked on with the Dodgers last year and produced his best BB/9 by far.  If he sustains that, he provided depth in the upper minors with potential for a midseason callup if a need arises at the MLB level.

Jason Krizan UT.  DOB:  6/28/1989.  B-L, T-R.  6'0", 185 lbs.  

2021 AAA(Giants):  .316/.367/.492, 16 HR, 8.1 BB%, 14.6 K%, 480 PA.  

Krizan has played every position but catcher in his minor league career.  His versatility is a big plus and he provided depth at multiple positions.  Similar player to Tommy La Stella.  I could see him filling in for that role if Tommy's return from Achilles Tendon surgery is delayed.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 3

Round 3:  Grant McCray OF.  DOB:  12/07/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 170 lbs.

 2021 Rookie:  .309/.400/.455, HR, 3 SB, 9 BB, 20 K, 65 PA.

2021 A:  .250/.299/.400, 2 HR, 4 SB, 6 BB, 30 K, 88 PA.  

Son of Rodney McCray who had a brief MLB career but is more famous for crashing through a minor league OF wall.  Grant was always a project and pure projection pick.  If you squint hard you can see a starting MLB CF/leadoff hitter with some power, speed and OBP skills.  Important development year coming up.  Should be ready to play full season of A ball in San Jose.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 4

 Round 4:  Tyler Fitzgerald IF.   DOB:  9/15/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 205 lbs.  

2021 A+:  .262/.342/.495,  28 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 12 SB, 8.8 BB%, 32.2 K%, 432 PA.

Nice combination of power/speed here.  The jump in K rate from 20% to 32% is a bit alarming, but the Giants philosophy apparently is to not worry too much about K rate.  49 out of 100 hits went for extra bases.  He keeps this going at AA in he's knocking on the door.  Size projects for even more power.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 5

We'll slow it down here and review the last 5 picks individually.  

Round 5:  Garrett Frechette 1B.  DOB:  12/31/2000.   B-L, T-L.  6'3", 200 lbs.  

2021 Rookie:  .331/.388/.438, 13 2B, HR, 6.9 BB%, 27.7 K%, 188 PA.

2021 A:           .219/.268/.289, HR, 5.7 BB%, 31.7 K%, 123 PA.

Overslot bonus for HS draftee.  Fell to 5'th round due to injury and illness his senior year of HS.  Big, strong LH hitter with a sweet swing that projects for contact and power.  Struggled with a reasonable assignment in A ball, then destroyed the complex league.  Still shows just doubles power in games but also still filling out frame.  Needs to find traction in San Jose in 2022. 

Free Agent Smackdown: Kris Bryant vs Tommy Pham

Most analysts agree the Giants have two more big needs to fill before the season starts:  A RH bat for the OF and another SP.  If you start by assuming the Giants can afford to spend up to the CBT threshold, or at least close to it, they have plenty of room to spend.  On the other hand, a rumor circulated this week that the Giants are not interested in signing a 9-figure contract with any player this winter, which completely changes the field of what players they may be interested in signing.  With that in mind, let's to a comp for two free agent OF's at the opposite ends of the projected cost spectrum and see who you would sign if you were FZ and Giants ownership.

Kris Bryant 3B/OF(actually any position other than C and P).  DOB:  1/4/1992.  B-R, T-R.  6'5", 230 lbs.

2021(2 teams):  .265/.353/.481, 25 HR, 10 SB, 10.6 BB%, 23.0 K%, 3.6 fWAR.

2022(Steamer):  .251/..343/.445, 23 HR, 7 SB, 10.8 BB%, 23.2 K%, 2.7 fWAR.

Projected FA Contract(MLBTR):  6 yrs/$160 M.

Strengths:  Versatility, power, can carry a team for long stretches, relative youth for a FA, relatively affordable.

Weaknesses:  Below average defender at all positions, can have long cold stretches, frequent injuries over past several years, projected length and total cost of contract.

Tommy Pham OF.  DOB:  3/8/1988.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 223 lbs.  

2021(Padres):  .229/.340/.383, 15 HR, 14 SB, 13.9 BB%, 22.8 K%, 1.5 fWAR.

2022(Steamer):  .258/.354/.429, 18 HR, 15 SB, 12.2 BB%, 21.8 K%, 2.2 fWAR.

Projected FA Contract(MLBTR):  Honorable Mention out of top 50.  FA's in 40-50 range getting 1-2 years at $6-9 M/yr.  Let's say 1 yr/$8 M.

Strengths:  Versatility(does not play IF, but can play all 3 OF's positions), Great OBP skills, relatively poor 2021 may be due to offseason stabbing injury and resulting deconditioning which should be in past with full offseason to prep, possible motivation to bounce back, power and speed when healthy, low cost, short term commitment.

Weaknesses:  2020 was also a poor season(small sample), lack of power over last 2 seasons, advancing age(34 in Jan, 2022).  

Q:  If you are FZ and Giants ownership, which of these two FA's do you sign?:

Kris Bryant

Tommy Pham

Neither

Giants 2019 Draft Review: Rounds 6-10

10.  Jeff Houghtby 2B.  DOB:  5/13/1997.  B-L, T-R.  5'11", 175 lbs.  

Retired(5/3/2021).  Throw-away extreme underslot pick to free up money for overslot deals for other players.

9.  Simon Whiteman SS.  DOB:  1/28/1997.  B-R, T-R.  5'10", 165 lbs.  

Minors(2 levels):  .244/.357/.350, 4 HR, 34 SB.  

Another extreme underslot deal, but Whiteman is not going away quietly.  He made it to AA and held his own.  No power to speak of, but his combination of OBP and SB's is intriguing and could eventually get him to a MLB utility role. 

8.  Caleb Kilian RHP.  DOB:  6/2/1997.  6'4", 180 lbs.  

Minors(3 teams):  7-4, 2.42, 100.1 IP, 13 BB, 112 K.  

Traded to the Cubs in the Kris Bryant deal.  I really liked the Kilian pick, the only pitcher in the Giants top 10 for 2019.  He is starting to get some national attention as a legit MLB prospect.  Tremendous K/BB.  Not sure if he has enough stuff to play at higher levels but he dominated AA.

7.  Armani Smith OF.  DOB:  7/19/1998.  B-R, T-R.  6'4", 215 lbs.

Minors(2 levels):  .290/.353/.476, 12 HR, 6 SB, 351 PA.

Big bodied OF out of UCSB.  SJ was probably too low a level for him but he continued to hit in A+ Eugene.  I guess the big test, as always, will come in AA Richmond.  We'll see if the Giants are bold enough to start him out there in 2022.

6.  Dilan Rosario SS.  DOB:  6/16/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 175 lbs.  

Rookie:  .209/.292/.316, 2 HR, 178 PA.  

Overslot bonus.  I really liked his PG profile before the draft.  Struggled to find traction in his second stint in rookie ball.  Still has time on his side.

Giants 2019 Draft Review: Rounds 11-15

15.  Carter Aldrete IF.  DOB:  10/12/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 205 lbs.  

A+:  .240/.301/.393, 9 HR, 8 SB, 7.6 BB%, 31.3 K%, 288 PA.  

Mike Aldrete's nephew.  Not the numbers you want to see from a 24 yo in A+ ball.  

14.  Nick Morreale RHP.  DOB:  7/27/1997.  6'5", 220 lbs.  

Minors(2 levels):  2-0, 4.35, 31 IP, 15 BB, 44 K.  

1.46 ERA in 12.1 IP, in Rookie ball, 6.27 ERA in 18.2 IP, in A+.  K rate will probably be enough to get him another look in 2022.

13.  Harrison Freed OF.  DOB:  5/13/1998.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 205 lbs.  

A:  .233/.322/.369, 8 HR, 2 SB, 7.5 BB%, 29.2 K%.  

Very similar numbers as Carter Aldrete but at a lower level.

12.  Chris Wright LHP.  DOB:  10/14/1998.  6'1", 205 lbs.  

Minors(2 levels):  4-0, 1.00, 45 IP, 21 BB, 789 K, 21 Saves.  

Impressive season spent mostly in A+ ball as Closer for the Eugene Emeralds(Darn!  I so wanted to write Salem-Keizer).  Could be fast riser in 2022.

11. Trevor McDonald RHP.   DOB:  2/26/2001.  6'2", 180 lbs.  

Minors(2 levels):  2-4, 4.09, 67.2 IP, 31 BB, 69 K.  

HS draftee with overslot bonus.  Always understood to be a project.  All but 2.2 IP in complex ball.  Started all but 2 appearances  Appears to be on schedule but will need to break out at some point.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Alex Blandino To Minors Deal

The Giants signed infielder Alex Blandino to a minor league deal with a spring training invitation(BTW, I was under the impression that spring training invites could not be part of minor league deals during the lockout, but that is apparently not the case).  

Alex Blandino IF.  DOB:  11/6/1992.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 190 lbs.  

Majors(3 seasons):  .226/.339/.291.  

2017(AA/AAA):  .265/..382/.453, 12 HR, 473 PA.

2021(AAA):  .102/.289/.153, 76 PA.

Alex Blandino was drafted #29 overall by the Reds in 2014 out of Stanford.  Early in his pro career he showed extreme selectivity and patience at the plate with decent pop.  Unfortunately the power eventually cratered although he still draws a lot of walks along with the accompanying K's.  He has played all 4 IF positions so could be useful as a utility guy if any semblance of power showed up again.  Another project for the Giants coaching team.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Buy A Pitcher

Ripple effects of the Rule 5 draft continued as the Giants purchased minor league pitcher Tanner Andrews from the Braves for cash the day after he was selected from the Marlins organization in the Rule 5 Draft.  So who is Tanner Andrews?

Tanner Andrews RHP.  DOB:  11/15/1995.  6'3", 225 lbs.  

2019(2 levels):  8-5, 3.50, 128.2 IP, 39 BB, 110 K.  

Senior college draftee(10'th round) out of Purdue in 2018, Andrews showed nice progress through 2019.  Then COVID wiped out the 2020 season and he underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2021 after pitching just 5.2 IP.  He should be ready to pitch sometime late in 2022 and the Giants can get extra innings to look at him in the 2022 Arizona Fall League.  They will then have to either add him to the 40 man MLB roster or risk losing him in next year's Rule 5 draft or as a minor league FA.  No scouting reports I could find.

Hot Stove Update: Minor League Rule 5 Draft

MLB held the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft yesterday.  Just a few clarifications about the minor league phase before we breakdown the results.  Organizations can protect additional players in the minor league phase by placing them on the AAA roster which has 38 slots and again, I believe it is limited to players with 4 years of pro experience drafted out of college and 5 years for HS or younger international signings.  Unlike the MLB phase, drafted players do not have to be offered back and can ultimately be placed at any minor league level the following season.  With that introduction out of the way, let's break it down.

Giants minor leaguers were popular in this draft with a total of 6 taken by other organizations.  The Giants added just one player, Michael Gigliotti.  Churn effects were evident as only 2 of the departing players were drafted and developed by the Giants.  Here's the list:

Conner Menez LHP, Cubs.  A mild surprise Menez was not protected on the AAA roster.  Giants obviously felt they had seen enough of him and moved on.

Matt Seelinger RHP, Phillies.  Seelinger was acquired a couple of years ago in a trade.  Was clearly an organizational pitcher without significant MLB prospects.

John Nogowski 1B, Braves.  The Braves sure seem to like ex-Giants players.  Nogowski was signed to a 2 year minor league deal in September 2021.

Vince Fernandez OF, A's.  Fernandez went to college at UC Riverside so I was hoping the Giants coaches could help him break through.  Hits for some power but struggles to make contact.

Jon Duplantier RHP, Dodgers.  Duplantier was just signed to a minor league deal a week ago.  Now grabbed by the Dodgers.  May have the most upside of any of the players the Giants lost here.  Grrr!!!!

Let's take a closer look at Michael Gigliotti, the latest player to enter FZ's Churn:

Michael Gigliotti OF.  DOB:  2/14/1996.  B-L, T-L.  6'1", 180 lbs.  

2021(2 levels):  .228/.380/.481, 4 HR, 6 SB, 100 PA.  

I really liked Gigliotti as a speed/leadoff/CF prospect entering his junior season at Lipscomb.  He got off to a slow start to the 2017 season and ended up drafted in round 4 by the Rays.  He's maintained a high OBP and SB rate with little power in the pros but has not played above A+ level.  Players who fit his profile have become extremely rare in the major leagues.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Rounds 16-20

 20.  Najee Gaskins OF.  DOB:  9/7/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 185 lbs.  

2021(2 levels):  .261/.306/.391, 3 HR, 3 SB, 125 PA.  

Gaskins is the type of prospect hurt most by the contraction of the minor leagues.  Given the Giants depth of outfield prospects, he may find it tough to get AB's at levels above the complex leagues.  Fringe prospect at best.

19.  Kanoa Pagan RHP.  DOB:  9/29/1998.  6'2", 190 lbs.  

2021(2 levels):  0-1, 5.40, 8.1 IP, 8 BB, 6 K's.  

Pagan has struggled so far in his pro career.  Will struggle to stay in the organization after the Giants pitching-heavy draft of 2021.

18.  Cole Waites RHP.  DOB:  6/10/1998.  6'3", 180 lbs.  

2021(2 levels):  2-0, 0.68, 13.1 IP, 6 BB, 31 K, 2 Saves.  

2021(AFL):  0-0, 16.20, 8.1 IP, 8 BB, 11 K's.  1 Save.

Hard throwing.  Finished minor league season as Closer for the SJ Giants.  Struggled in AFL. Entire 2021 still adds up to small sample.  Any pitcher who throws that hard with those K rates has a shot to pitch in the majors.

17.  Connor Cannon 1B/DH.  DOB:  5/16/1998.  B-R, T-R.  6'5", 240 lbs.  

2021:  DNP(Traded to the Yankees as the PTBNL for Mike Tauchman.

Cannon has tremendous power when healthy but missed most of his college career due to injury and spend all of 2021 on the IL.  Tauchman is no longer with the Giants either but his game-saving catch of a potential walk-off HR against the Dodgers was one of the biggest turning points of the 107 win 2021 season.  If that's all the Giants get from a 17'th round draft pick, it's a successful pick.

16.  Brandon Martorano C.  DOB:  6/1/1998.  B-R, T-R.  6'2', 198 lbs.  

2021 A+:  .333/.463/.560, 2 HR, 4 SB, 95 PA.

2021 AA:  .176/.306/.361.  6 HR, 2 SB, 144 PA.

Third tier catching prospect with a bit of power(9 HR in 240 total milb PA's).  Most likely an organizational level player.

Hot Stove League Update: Lockout Can't Stop The Churn

FZ seems pretty unfazed by the lockout.  Since the lockout only applies at the MLB level, FZ is free to Churn on and that's pretty much what he does anyway.  The Churn swept up 3 new pitchers on minor league deals.  Let's take a look and see who they are:

Jon Duplantier RHP.   DOB:  7/11/1994.  6'4", 229 lbs.  

Minors:  1-0, 7.88, 8 IP, 5 BB, 5 K's.  

MLB:  0-3, 13.15, 13 IP, 8 BB, 12 K's.

Duplantier is the best known of the three signings.  He is a former 3'rd round draft pick out of Rice by the D'Backs in 2016.  By 2018 he looked like a future star but then a series of injuries derailed his career.  Can he be another FZ reclamation special? 

Gray Fenter RHP.  DOB:  1/15/1996.  6'0", 200 lbs.  

AA:  6-4, 5.47, 77.1 IP, 48 BB, 86 K.  

If you look at terrible teams who lead MLB in giving up on players who blossom for other teams, the Orioles are definitely in the discussion.  Fenter is another Orioles castoff who obviously needs to improve his walk rate.  Can Giants coaches help him do that?

Mauricio Llovera RHP.  DOB:  4/17/1996.  5'11", 224 lbs.

AAA:  2-2, 3.46, 52 IP, 24 BB, 48 K.  

MLB:  1-0, 9.45, 6.2 IP, 4 BB, 7 K.

Previously in Phillies organization.  That's all I've got.

Thoughts on the Lockout

 We live in a crazy world right now and it does not get much crazier than the MLB player lockout which started at 12:01 this morning.  Anyone who thinks that either side needs this has only to look at what happened in preceding week.  If either side seriously thought they would gain a significant advantage when an agreement is reached we would not have seen the frenzy of free agent signings we just witnessed.  It was obvious both management and players desperately wanted to get as many deals done UNDER THE EXISTING AGREEMENT as possible.  I mean, if both sides like it so much, why not just extend it for another 5 years?  Sure, there would need to be some minor changes rightfully favoring the players:  Continue raising the CBT threshold, raise the minimum wage players for players in the first 3 years of service time.  On the competition side, I personally would like to see a universal DH and a pitch clock.  Electronic strike zone is too much to hope for, but that would be nice too.  Instead we get an unnecessary work stoppage which will likely not end before the scheduled start of spring training.  

More thoughts:

1.  I do not recall a commissioner more blatantly championing the owners.  Rob Manfred was MLB's labor negotiator before he became commissioner and it's pretty clear he did not leave that role behind.  His open letter needlessly blasted the MLBPA and held them responsible for the lockout when it was the owners who implemented it.  I know the U.S. Congress has much more important things to worry about, but they had more important things to worry about when they gave MLB an antitrust carve out.  Congress and the Labor Department should demand that MLB get an more impartial commissioner or the antitrust exemption ends.

2.  Given the current climate, I don't see this ending without the start of the season being pushed back.  Both sides seem determined to get every last crumb of the best deal possible. You don't do that unless you are willing to go to the brink. In this case, the brink is Opening Day.  So figure out at what point spring training has to start to not push back Opening Day and that is the very earliest we can expect a deal.

3.  On a lighter note, I bet FZ and Kap are secretly hoping this wipes out the season and they get to play with scrubs/scabs.  Between FZ's ability to identify potential breakthrough talent and Kap's staff's ability to coach them up, the Giants would be the runaway favorites to win the World Series!  

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Sign Alex Cobb

 It's been rumored for awhile so no big surprise, but the Giants finally got a deal done with Alex Cobb RHP.   This feels like a deal in FZ's comfort zone.  It's not a churn/dumpster dive/risk-free kind of deal that FZ is famous for.  FZ gets a solid MLB performer who has a hint of upside at a price that won't blow up the payroll and doesn't become an albatross if it doesn't work out.  The deal is 2 yr/$20 M with a $10 M team option for 2023.  Cobb will reportedly receive $9 M the next 2 years with a $2 M buyout for the option year.  If the option is picked up, it's a 3 yr/$38 M package.

Alex Cobb RHP.  DOB:  10/7/2021.  6'3", 205 lbs.  

8-3, 3.76, 93.1 IP, 9.45 K/9, 3.18 BB/9, 2.92 FIP.

The biggest rap on Alex Cobb is injury history.  2018 was the last season he pitched more than 100 innings.  Last year's injuries were a blister problem and wrist soreness.  When he was healthy, he pitched great.  FZ has a history of signing pitchers with injury history to deals that turn out to be bargains.  He clearly believes injury history suppresses market value too far and it's an undervalued commodity.  If it doesn't work out with one, the money is small enough relatively speaking to not be a backbreaker and if you spread the risk over several pitchers, probabilities are enough will stay healthy to make it pay off.

Going into the offseaseon, FZ acknowledged biggest challenge was SP depth.  Assuming the Alex Wood deal is still on track, he's taken that challenge off the table and still has plenty of payroll room to go after a middle-of-the-order bat and/or a frontline SP to take heat off Logan Webb.  Here's hoping FZ has enough left in the tank to get both.

Hot Stove League Update: Kevin Gausman Gone

 Late news today as free agent signings continued at a frantic pace to beat the lockout(which really should tell everybody the lockout is completely silly and unnecessary).  Kevin Gausman is reportedly signing a 5 yr/$110 M contract with the Blue Jays.  He's getting paid and he deserves it.  I tend to think the Giants got the two best years of his career, but we'll see.  Giants do need another frontline SP.  If it's not Gausman, then who?  Marcus Stroman?  Max Scherzer(who is rumored to be close to signing with the Mets)?  Robbie Ray?  They all have their warts.  Maybe FZ is sure he can find the next Kevin Gausman on another 1 year deal?  The Hot Stove sizzles on!

Hot Stove Update: CBA Deadline Fever

There is an absolute stampede of free agent signings as we approach the CBA expiration date with the expectation of a lockout if a new deal is not worked out.  Here's what this tells me:  If either the players or management really think they are going to end up with a significant advantage in a new CBA, we would not be seeing these deals.  They obviously think the current CBA is a good deal for both sides.  Since that is the case, we would hope they would just make a few tweaks and move on:  Universal DH, more pace of game rules, raise the CBT, raise the minimum salary and make it graduated for service time over the first 3 years of service.  That's really all they need to do.  

There are too many signings to cover them all in-depth:

Marcus Semien IF.  Rangers.  7 yr/$175 M.  Rangers seem like an odd destination for Semien but that also seems like a big overpay.

Avisail Garcia OF.  Marlins.  4 yrs/$53 M.  Probably about right but Garcia has had his ups and downs.

Corey Kluber RHP.  Rays.  1 yr/$8 M with incentives.  Michael Wacha RHP.  Red Sox.  1 yr/$7 M.  The Giants struck gold with 1 year contracts for pitchers looking to rebuild value.  Now everybody is getting in on the action.  Undervalued commodities don't stay undervalued long.  Now FZ has to find the next undervalued commodity.

Rumors are optimistic about a possible reunion with Kevin Gausman RHP and the Giants.  Blue Jays seem to be main competition.  I guess when you are signing a contract like Gausman will get, future values is not a big consideration, but he will almost certainly put up better numbers in SF than he would in Toronto.

Hot Stove League Update: Mets Go Wild; Meet Arquimedes Gamboa

One of FZ's stated goals for the offseason is to acquire a RH bat for the OF.  One potential target for the role, Starling Marte, is off the market as the Mets took out their frustrations with the Steven Matz negotiations by signing 3 position players including Marte, Mark Canha OF and Eduardo Escobar IF.  Marte is coming off his career year(so far) and is 33 years old.  The deal is reportedly for 4 years/$78 M Which seems like a great deal from the Mets perspective, albeit possibly 1 year longer than ideal.  Canha and Escobar are also 33 yo. They got 2 year deals for $26 M and $20 M respectively.  

The MLBTR analysis speculates that Dominic Smith OF, J.D. Davis and/or Jeff McNeil could now be trade candidates.  Davis seems to fit the profile of the type of player FZ prefers.  

Marte, Canha and Escobar are 3 good players and probably upgrades for the Mets, but I don't see them changing the balance of power in the NL East and they do not address the Mets biggest need which is pitching.

From the pace of free agent signings, it appears both players and teams want certainty before the looming potential lockout, which raises the question of what's in a lockout for either side?  Are we really going to see an industry that is swimming in money for all sides self immolate once again?

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The Giants signed Arquimedes Gamboa SS to a minor league contract with a spring training invitation.  Here is the breakdown on Gamboa:

DOB:  9/23/1997.  B-S, T-R.  6'0", 190 lbs.  2021 Minors(2 levels):  .231/.346/.377, 10 HR, 10 SB, 382 PA.   Gamboa is a defense-first SS prospect with a bit of both power and speed.  His main claim to fame as a hitter is extreme patience at the plate producing walk rates of over 14% which gives him solid OBP's despite low BA's.  He will serve as utility IF depth in AAA, especially if the Thairo Estrada is the UT IF for the Giants next year.

The Giants also signed Peter Tago RHP to a minor league deal.  Tago was a highly regarded HS pitching prospect out of SoCal drafted by the Rockies who struggled in pro ball and has yet to see MLB action at age 29.  He posted decent numbers last year in a relief role with the White Sox at AA/AAA levels.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Rounds 21-40

For lack of anything better to write about here, I thought folks might be interested in reviewing the Giants 2019 amateur draft as this was the first draft under FZ regime.  It may not be completely fair to pin success or failure of this draft on FZ as this was a transitional year and his scouting team did not have a full cycle to evaluate players.  In addition, the new scouting director, Michael Holmes, went through a major family crisis just prior to the draft.  On top of all that, the cancelled minor league season of 2020 caused a disruption in both player development and evaluation.  But we now have the partial post-draft season plus a full 2021 season to get a bead on how the drafted players are coming along and to start to form some judgments.  

The Giants signed just 2 players from rounds 31-40.  Several more from rounds 21-30 did not sign either so we'll review rounds 21-40 here first, then break it down into smaller groupings after that.

40.  Jeff Heinrich, JC 2B.  Did Not Sign.

39.  Chris Lanzilli, College OF.  Did Not Sign.

38.  Will Rigney, HS RHP.  Did Not Sign.

37.  Cole Weiss, College 3B.  Did Not Sign.

36.  Cameron Repetti, HS 3B.  Did Not Sign.

35.  Brooks Lee, HS SS.  Did Not Sign.

34.  Morgan Colopy, HS RF.  Did Not Sign.

33.  Nolan Dempsey, College IF.  DOB:  9/9/1996.  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 175 lbs.  2021 Minors(2 levels):  .153/.254/.237.  Released 8/9/2021.

32.  Dylan Brewer, HS CF.  Did Not Sign.

31.  Tyler Wyatt, College 3B.  DOB:  12/9/1996.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 185 lbs.  2021 Minors(2 levels):  .236/.354/.527.  Released 8/15/2021. 

So a total whiff on the last 10 rounds of the draft.  I think the take-home lesson here is the draft does not need to be 40 rounds long and likely won't ever be again.

30.  Justin Crump, College RHP.   DOB:  12/1/1995.  6'3", 215 lbs.  2021 A:  4-3, 5.94, 33.1 IP, 25 BB, 38 K.  Released 8/15/2021.

29.  Brooks Crawford, College RHP.  DOB:  8/19/1996.  6'4", 215 lbs.  2021 A:  6-1, 1.96, 46 IP, 7 BB, 57 K, 4 Saves.  Great numbers but at too low level for a 2019 college draftee.  Lost 2020 season undoubtedly a factor here.

28.  Reese Sharp, HS RHP.  Did Not Sign.

27.  Connor Beichler, HS SS.  Did Not Sign.

26.  Nick Avila, College RHP.  DOB:  7/25/1997.  6'4", 195 lbs.  2021 High A:  5-7, 6.51, 76 IP, 27 BB, 78 K.  Decent K rate but otherwise discouraging numbers.  Risk of release before 2022 season starts.

25.  Richard Rodriguez,  HS SS.  Did Not Sign.

24.  Evan Lumbert, College RHP.  DOB:  5/10/1996.  6'0", 175 lbs.  2021 Rookie:  2-2, 1.59, 22.2 IP, 11 BB, 25 K, 2 Saves.  Nice numbers but Rookie League way too low for 2019 college draftee.  Risk for release before 2022 season starts.

23.  Taylor Rashi, College RHP.  DOB:  1/15/1996.  6'4", 220 lbs.  2021 High A:  6-3, 4.44, 46.2 IP, 22 BB, 68 K, 2 Saves.  Fairly impressive numbers, particularly K rate at appropriate level considering lost 2020 season.

22.  Javeyon Williams, College CF.  DOB:  6/27/1997.  B-L, T-L.  5'9", 160 lbs.  2021 Minors( 2 levels):  .209/.335/.291.  3 HR, 15 SB, 134 AB.  Released 8/12/2021.

21. Bryce Fehmel,  College RHP.  DOB:  12/16/1996. 6'2", 205 lbs.  2019 Minors(2 levels):  0-1, 2.25, 16 IP, 1 BB, 15 K.  2021:  DNP.  I was not able to find the cause of the DNP except he was on 60 day IL.  One blog post implied it was related to arm surgery.

So, 5 of 10 draftees from rounds 21-30 either did not sign or have already been released.  At least Brooks Crawford and Taylor Rashi had good seasons with opportunity to move up in the organization.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Re-sign Anthony DeSclafani

 The Giants hot stove heated up as the day started with a rumored free agent signing and ended with an actual signing of a different player and word of a near signing of yet a different player.  The move and rumored moves would go a long way toward solidifying a near-empty starting rotation and bring back two key pitchers from the 2021 campaign.  Here's the breakdown:

Signed:  Anthony DeSclafani RHP.  3 years/$36 M.  DOB:  4/18/1990.  6'2", 195 lbs.  13-7, 3.17, 167.2 IP, 8.16 K/9, 2.25 BB/9.  DeSclafani needs no introduction to Giants fans as he was a workhorse starter last year. He was good enough to generate speculation the Giants would offer him a QO which they did not.  This deal probably works better for both parties as the Giants get a much lower AAV and DeSclafani gets 3 years of security and about twice total payout than accepting a QO.  The Giants now hope he can stay healthy and settle into a #3/4 starter role and a pitcher who will roll out there every 5'th game and give them a chance to win.

Near-signed:  Alex Wood LHP.  2 year/$20 M(rumored).  DOB:  1/12/1991.  6'4", 215 lbs.  10-4, 3.83, 138/2 IP, 9.87 K/9. 2.53 BB/9.  Reports on multiple baseball news sites have Wood close to signing a new 2-year contract with the Giants for an AAV of $10 M.  When Wood is healthy, he is a very good pitcher, but he has not always been healthy.  On the other hand, none of his historical injuries seem particularly career threatening or likely to recur.  The Giants would be thrilled if he turned in 2 more season just like 2021. Lets keep our fingers crossed on this one because this would be great for us fans.

Rumor:  Alex Cobb RHP.  DOB:  10/7/1987.  6'3", 205 lbs.  8-3, 3.76, 93.1 IP, 9.45 K/9, 3.18 BB/9(Angels).  It's pretty clear that FZ considers injury history suppresses market value more than it should making pitchers with historical injures an undervalued commodity.  Cobb's history is very similar to Alex Wood's in that both pitchers have missed considerable time to the IL but are very good when healthy.  Rumors have the Giants pushing for a Cobb signing.  If it comes to pass along with a Wood signing, it would fill 3 of the 4 empty rotation slots with 3 very similar SP's who when healthy are all solid #3 starters and could be #2's at their best.  No numbers in the rumors but MLBTR's projected price for Cobb is 2 yr/$16 M.  

Analysis:  If all three of these signings come to pass, it would leave FZ with enormous flexibility for the remainder of the postseaon.  Having immediately rectified the single biggest challenge of the Hot Stove League, lack of SP depth, he can now concentrate on landing a middle-of-the-order hitter and/or ace level SP with plenty of spending room to do both.

Giants 2021 Draft Review: Rounds 1-5

5.  Rohan Handa, College LHP.  DOB:  2/28/2000.  6'3", 210 lbs.  New England Collegiate League:  0-0, 0.53, 17 IP, 8 BB, 25 K.  Handa is perhaps be the most intriguing player in the entire draft.  He is Indian-American born in Charlotte, NC, both parents from India.  He played college ball at Yale where he majored in Political Science with a minor in Statistics and Data Science.   Hmm....now what occupation would that education prepare you for?  When Yale cancelled the 2021 season due to COVID concerns the coach advised all the pitchers to work on their own at increasing velocity and not worry about anything else.  Handa worked with a private pitching and conditioning program and his velocity jumped from the high 80's up to 97 MPH.  He then pitched for the New England Collegiate League where he impressed scouts and his velocity remained in the mid-upper 90's.  I could not find any stats from the minor leagues after the draft so it appears he did not get in any games.  He will definitely be a name to follow in minor league boxscores in 2022. 

4.  Eric Silva, HS RHP.  DOB:  10/3/2002.  6'1", 185 lbs.  Rookie:  0-1, 36.00, 1 IP, 3 BB, 2 K.  Silva is this year's HS overslot play for the Giants.  He signed for $1.475 M which is almost $1 M overslot to sign him away from a UCLA commitment.  Ranked as #2 RHP draft prospect from CA and #24 in the country.  FB listed at 92 MPH but he has room to grown into his frame.  His PG scouting report:  "low 90's and dominant at WWBA; Live arm and projectable build; High level spin and feel for landing it.  Pounds the zone."  I wouldn't worry about the tiny sample size in rookie ball.  He should follow in Kyle Harrison's footsteps and pitch for San Jose next season.

3.  Mason Black, College RHP.  DOB:  12/10/1999.  6'3", 230 lbs.  College:  7-3, 3.11, 72.1 IP, 31 BB, 95 K.  Big boned and muscled.  Uses his legs to propel a drop and drive delivery that produces a high 90's FB.  The body size and delivery remind me a lot of Matt Cain.  Lit up the Cape Cod League.  Walk rate was a bit high his junior year at Lehigh which may be why he fell to the Giants in round 3.  No projection in the body but who needs projection if you are already a physical monster?  Command could improve and the secondary stuff needs development but there is a lot to work with here and the ceiling is high.

2.  Matt Mikulski, College LHP.  DOB:  5/8/1999.  6'4", 205 lbs.  Rookie:  0-0, 1.80, 5 IP, 3 BB, 5 K's.  College:  9-0, 1.45, 68.1 IP, 27 BB, 124 K.  Tall, big-boned lefty with a mid 90's FB as a SP that bumps up to high 90's as a reliever.  Maintained FB velocity late into games.  Worked on smoothing out a violent delivery which led to a dominant junior season for Fordham.  Has a slider that "misses bats" and a decent changeup.  

1.  Will Bednar, College RHP.  DOB:  6/13/2000.  6'2", 230 lbs.  Rookie/A:  0-0, 1.29, 7 IP, 1 BB, 6 K's.  College:  9-1, 3.12, 92.1 IP, 26 BB, 139 K.  Will Bednar checks all the boxes for a first round draft pick:

Dominant SP for a major college conference.

Led team to College WS win.

Strong frame with power delivery.

Mid-90's FB and plus slider with high spin rates.

Should move quickly.  MLB ETA mid-late 2022 is not out of the question.

*************************************************************************************

Draft Review Summary:  The Giants used this draft to address their biggest organizational need, pitching.  Bednar should be ready to help almost immediately.  They later added a raft of high-ceiling college arms who should not be far behind Bednar.  They managed their bonus pool to nab a highly ranked HS pitcher for the future.  Maybe not a spectacular draft but a very solid one that should immediately balance out the talent pool in the farm system.

Hot Stove League Update: Rule 5 Draft Roster Adjustments

The Giants added three prospects, Heliot Ramos OF, Sean Hjelle RHP and Randy Rodriguez RHP, to their 40 man roster to protect them from potential loss in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft which might not happen as scheduled due to collective bargaining related work stoppage.  To make room for the three prospects, they surprisinglly DFA'd Jay Jackson RHP and not so surprisingly sent last year's Rule 5 draftee, Dedniel Nunez, back to the Mets.  

The biggest surprise to me out of all this is that Jackson was let go in favor of 3 players recently added through the waiver process.  Since the Giants had the best record on baseball last year, every other team passed on picking those players up which seems to make them a good bet to clear waivers if the Giants had released them.  On the other hand, I would think there would be several teams thinking Jackson would make a nice upgrade to their MLB level bullpen.  Maybe the Giants are gambling that other teams rosters are full and there won't be any more adds before the Rule 5 Draft which would leave time for Jackson to clear waivers?  

There is still plenty of time for the Giants to drop more players from the roster as it is now full and they will need to clear space for free agent signings when they occur, which they will.  I mean, as of right now they have just one MLB quality starter.

Giants 2021 Draft Review: Rounds 6-10

10.  Vaun Brown, College OF.  DOB:  6/23/1998.  B-R,  T-R.  6'1", 190 lbs.  Rookie:  .354/.480/.620, 2 HR, 8 SB, 7 BB, 29 K, 98 PA.  College:  .387/.462/.793, 13 HR, 9 SB,  12 BB, 26 K, 111 AB.  5'th year senior at DII Florida Southern where he was coached by former Giant Lance Niekro.   Scrappy, speedy CF/leadoff type.  No projection in mature body sculpted in weight room.  We should see him in San Jose which will be a much bigger challenge than complex ball.

9.  Mat Olsen, JC RHP.  DOB:  7/8/2000.  5'11", 185 lbs.  Rookie:  0-0, 0.00, 3 IP, 0 BB, 5 K.  JC:  13-0, 2.13, 88.2 IP, 30 BB, 133 K.  Smaller frame with high-effort delivery, high arm speed which generated mid-90's velocity.  He reportedly has a tight, hard slider to go with it and helps him get the K's.  Size and effort in delivery means he may profile more as a reliever in the pros.

8.  Ian Villers, College RHP.  DOB:  9/1/2000.  6'6", 245 lbs.  Rookie:  1-0, 2.08, 8.2 IP, 0 BB, 12 K's.  College:  4-1, 2.84, 38 IP, 11 BB, 36 K.  Jumbo college reliever for Cal.  Inconsistent FB velocity but up to 97 MPH.  3 average secondary pitches. Giants coaches will probably identify the one with most potential and have him develop it as well as developing consistent velocity.

7.  Nick Sinacola, College RHP.  DOB:  10/29/1999.  6'1", 190 lbs.  Rookie:  0-0, 0.00, 6.1 IP, 0 BB, 11 K.  College:  9-3, 2.04, 79.1 IP, 23 BB, 139 K.  Terrific college numbers but average stuff with an 88-92 MPH FB and low 80's slider he throws more than 50% of the time.  There seems to be someone in Giants management that likes that profile, I mean the slider as primary pitch profile.

6.  Seth Lonsway, College LHP.  DOB:  10/7/1998.  6'3", 195 lbs.  Rookie:  0-0, 7.20, 5 IP, 0 BB, 10 K.  College:  3-5, 4.37, 68 IP, 43 BB,  98 K.  Good sized lefty with a FB that gets to 96 MPH but his calling card is a high spin 12-6 curveball that's been compared to Barry Zito's.  Tremendous K rates in college but also struggled with too many walks.  Giants coaches will try to refine his game.

Hot Stove League Update: Brandon Belt Accepts The QO

Brandon Belt will be belting HR's for the Giants in 2022 after accepting the Qualifying Offer of $18.4 M.  This seems like a great deal for both Belt and the Giants.  For Belt, it's a significant yearly raise over his just expired  contract. Belt's market obviously factored in his injury history and wanted no part of a long term deal so this is the next best thing.  For the Giants, they are only on the hook for the 1 year, so the risk is minimal.

It seems like with Belt back, the Giants have first base well covered and will turn their attention to other priorities such as pitching for the remainder of the Hot Stove League season. 

Hot Tip: Fangraphs Interview With Giants Pitching Prospect R. J. Dabovitch

 OK, team!  This is essential reading for all serious Giants fans.  Check out David Laurilia's interview with R. J. Dabovitch from today on Fangraphs.  It's linked to the left.  I am surprised R. J. revealed so much detailed information but it's definitely educational.  Check it out!

Giants 2021 Draft Review: Rounds 11-15

15.  Brooks Baldwin, College SS.  DOB:8/15/2000.  B-S, T-R.  6'2", 185 lbs.  Did Not Sign.  College:  .325/.353/.580, 15 HR, 11 SB.  Athletic switch-hitting college SS.  Redshirt Soph which are tough signs because he will still have negotiating leverage as a junior next year.

14.  Tyler Myrick, College RHP.  DOB:  6/25/1998.  6'0", 205 lbs.  Rookie:  1-1, 6.43, 7 IP, 1 BB, 16 K, 1 Save.  College:  7-4, 5.43, 71.1 IP, 27 BB, 67 K.  College SP.  Got hit around as a reliever in rookie ball but look at the K/BB.  Saw report in D1 Baseball of Myrick touching 96 MPH with the FB in early May.

13.  Jared Dupere College OF.  DOB:  1/23/1999.  B-L, T-R.  5'11", 200 lbs.  Rookie:  .263/.346/.411, 2 HR, 5 SB, 12 BB, 36 K, 107 PA.  College:  .343/.457/.781, 21 HR, 14 SB.  Stocky but athletic and fast.  Will probably start out 2022 in San Jose.

12.  Landen Roupp, College RHP.  DOB:  9/10/1998.  6'2", 205 lbs.  Rookie/A:  0-0, 2.25, 8 IP, 1 BB, 14 K.  College:  8-5, 2.58, 101 IP, 42 BB, 118 K.  College teammate of Brooks Baldwin(above) but Roupp signed.  Again, we should see him in San Jose to start next season.

11.  Donovan McIntyre, HS OF(297.5 K signing bonus).  DOB:  12/10/2002.  B-L, T-L.  6'2", 165 lbs.  Rookie:  .203/.329/.313, HR, 5 SB, 76 PA.  Speedy CF/leadoff type who may grow into some power.  Wrenzie at Around The Foghorn reports is 60 time is 6.23.  That's blazing!  

Giants 2021 Draft Review: Rounds 16-20

 This could be a long, cold winter by the Hot Stove with a work stoppage related to collective bargaining looming just about the time it starts to heat up and not a lot of incentive for either side to budge until a couple of weeks into spring training.  The 2021 season was so intense, we did not have much time to look at the draft, so this is a good time to catch up. The later draft date did not give much time for players to take the field and generate data, but there are some very early returns to look at.

The Giants used their top 9 picks on pitchers and 14 out of a total of 20.  They signed their top 14 picks and 17 of 20.  16 picks were college players with 4 coming from HS ranks.  They signed 3 of their HS picks using slot bonus manipulation as they have done in previous drafts under the FZ regime. 

We'll start with the bottom of the draft and work up.

20.  Vance Honeycutt HS SS.  DOB:  5/17/2003.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 190 lbs.  Did Not Sign.  Ideal size, strong wiry frame with room to fill out.  Commitment to North Carolina made him an unlikely sign.

19.  Irvin Murr III, HS, 3B. DOB:  3/12/2003.  B-R, T-R.  6'4", 220 lbs.  Rookie:  .109/.180/.174, HR, 50 PA.  HS shortstop. athletic and fast for his size.  Strong arm with 86 MPH IF velocity and a live bat with 96 MPH exit velocity, both measured in a 2020 showcase.  Challenge will be to make enough contact to unlock the power.  Signing Bonus $125 K.

18.  Hunter Dula, College RHP.  DOB:  3/8/1999.  6'1", 195 lbs.  Rookie: 0-1, 1.80, 10 IP, 4 BB, 17 K, 1 Save.  College:  7-2, 3.38, 64 IP, 25 BB, 64 K.  .262/.395/539, 9 HR, 14 SB.  2-way college player drafted as a pitcher despite strong offensive numbers. I found a scouting report from the Cape Cod League which has him pegged as a sinker/slider depth starter with velocity up to 94 MPH.

17.  Brett Standlee, College RHP.  DOB:  9/14/1998.  6'4", 223 lbs.  Rookie:  0-0, 1.00, 9 IP, 2 BB, 9 K, 6 Saves.  College:  4-1, 3.09, 32 IP, 9 BB, 44 K, 5 Saves.  I was not able to find a scouting report with specific information but he's a classic big, burly college closer profile from a major program(OK St.) so would guess he has velocity.  The bushy red beard fits the profile too.

16.  Julian Bosnic, College LHP.  DOB:  12/28/1999.  6'3", 218 lbs.  Did Not Sign.  College:  4-2, 2.84, 50.2 IP, 10 BB, 84 K, 4 Saves. College swingman who both started and closed.  No scouting report but eye-popping K/BB.  PG had him at 91 MPH coming out of HS.

Thoughts on CBA Negotiations: Props to Dave Cameron and Fangraphs

 Wow!  I don't know for sure that someone is not trolling us with this, but MLB Trade Rumors reports the latest MLB proposal to the MLBPA contains a complete reworking of the arbitration system with at least part of the calculation of value based on fWAR or Fangraphs WAR.  First a little background:

Fangraphs did not invent the concept of WAR, Wins Above Replacement.  That would be Bill James who introduced Win Shares a few decades ago.  It idea was to analyze baseball stats and quantify correlation to run production or prevention.  That's easy, you may say.  Just look up Runs and RBI's for hitters and ERA for pitchers and you're done.  Ummm...not so fast.  Unless you hit a solo HR, you don't score a run without another player driving you in and you don't get an RBI without another player getting on base ahead of you.  Suddenly, stats like OBP and SLG%, K/9, BB/9 became the go-to stats in baseball discussions and that did not count the value of baserunning and defense.  

Fangraphs, a baseball publication linked to the left here, made two major contribution to WAR:  

1.  The pioneered the inclusion of defensive metrics in the calculation.

2.  Their longtime editor, Dave Cameron, who I believe now works for the Padres, pioneered and championed the translation of WAR into monetary value finding extraordinary correlations between WAR and free agent yearly salaries.

This proposal by MLB is probably a non-starter with elements that both the players and owners would ultimately find unacceptable but what a feather in Dave Cameron and Fangraphs hats!  Something they basically invented and championed and took a lot of heat for in online discussions has now reportedly been proposed by MLB, no less, as the basis for arbitration awards in the next CBA.  Ha ha!  Maybe Dave Cameron leaked that story to MLBTR?  Just kidding!

Here's a hat tip.

Giants Organizational Depth Charts: Closer

 The Giants tied with the Dodgers for most Saves in MLB with 56.  They were 5'th in Blown Saves at 29, three more than the Dodgers.  They did that with either a Closer committee or rotating Closers as 8 pitchers recorded Saves.  The guy who got the most Saves(Jake McGee with 31) was not the Closer at the end of the season or in the postseason.  That would be rookie Camilo Doval who had electric stuff but finally showed he could raise his HR in a sad ending to the NLDS.  Again, I am not going to list every pitcher who might be in line for Saves. 

MLB:

Camilo Doval RHP(pre-arbitration, options).  DOB:  7/4/1997.  6'2", 185 lbs.  5-1, 3.00, 27 IP, 9 BB, 37 K, 3 Saves, 3 BS.  Doval finished the season and postseason in the Closer's chair.  Despite a FB that runs 98-103 MPH, his primary pitch is the slider which he falls in love with too much at times.  The slider is tight and all but unhittable when it's thrown right but if you throw enough sliders, you'll eventually hang one.  If the hitter is looking for it.....Doval needs to learn to trust the FB and would be truly unhittable with an average changeup.  Is he ready to take on the full time Closer roll in 2022?

Jake McGee LHP(under contract).  DOB:  8/6/1986.  6'4", 229 lbs.  3-2, 2.72, 59.2 IP, 10 BB, 58 K, 31 Saves, 5 BS.  McGee was the primary Closer for most of the season and actually did a good job despite essentially a one-pitch repertoire.  He was on the IL late in the season and by the time he came back, Kap had under standably fallen in love with Doval.  McGee seemed to be trying to throw more sliders after his late return and into the postseason.  Will that be a trend that continues?

Tyler Rogers RHP(Pre-Arbitration).  DOB 12/17/1990.  6'3", 181 lbs.  7-1, 2.22, 81 IP,  13 BB, 55 K, 13 Saves, 6 BS.  Rogers found more success as a setup/8'th inning guy than as the Closer.  Unique delivery and ball movement compensates for low 80's max velocity.  Will MLB hitters figure him out?

Dominic Leone RHP(Arbitration Eligible, MLBTR projected $1.5 M).  DOB:  10/26/1991.  5'10", 215 lbs.  4-5, 1.51, 53.1 IP, 22 BB, 50 K, 2 Saves, 2 Blown Saves.  Like many Giants in 2021, had his best season and by far.  Pitched in effectively in multiple situations including Opener.

AAA:

Norwith Gudino RHP.   DOB:  11/22/1995.  6'2", 200 lbs.  Minors(2 teams): 5-2, 3.90, 60 IP, 23 BB, 86 K, 5 Saves.  Gudino has worked his way up every so slowly from the DSL.  He was a swingman last year and had some dominant starts of 3-5 IP for the River Cats after a promotion from Richmond.  Reliever is probably an easier path to the majors for him but the versatility won't hurt him at all in FZ/Kap's eyes.

AA:

RJ Dabovitch RHP.  DOB:  1/11/1999.  6'3", 208 lbs.  Minors(2 teams):  1-1, 2.78, 32.1 IP, 13 BB, 62 K's, 10 Saves.  Definitely on the Closer Track. Fast mover.  Dominant so far.  I could see him getting called up to the majors sometime in 2022.

Patrick Ruotolo RHP.  DOB:  1/16/1995.  5'10", 250 lbs(really?).  3-1, 2.68, 37 IP, 5 BB, 50 K, 11 Saves.  Not a small guy by any stretch but does not look 250 lbs.  High effort guy.  Long time fave of Giants prospect watchers.  Will he finally get his chance in 2022?

A+:

Chris Wright LHP.  DOB:  10/14/1998.  6'1", 205 lbs.  Minors(2 teams):  4-0, 1.00, 45 IP, 21 BB, 79 K, 21 Saves.  Not much info but FZ hoards lefty relievers.

A:  

Clay Helvey RHP.  DOB:  2/14/1997.  6'3", 195 lbs.  3-5, 3.06, 53 IP, 20 BB, 83 K, 10 Saves.

Rookie:  

Brett Standlee RHP.  DOB:  9/14/1998.  6'4", 223 lbs.  0-0, 1.00, 9 IP, 2 BB, 9 K's, 6 Saves.  2021 Round 17 Draft pick.

Jose Cruz RHP.  DOB:  5/18/2000.  6'1", 178 lbs.  3-1, 4.44, 24.1 IP, 9 BB, 44 K, 5 Saves.

Giants Organizational Depth Charts: Starting Pitcher

This one is a lot easier than it usually is because 4/5's of the Giants starting rotation are now free agents.  Again, on the minor league level, I will mention significant SP prospects rather than every single one.  Again, if I miss your favorite sleeper prospect feel free to tell us about him in a comment.

MLB:

Logan Webb RHP(pre-arbitration).  DOB:  11/18/1996.  6'1", 220 lbs.  11-3, 3.03, 148.1 IP, 9.59 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 60.9 GB%.  Webb emerged as the ace of the staff by the end of the season and was nails in the postseason too joining the tradition of Giants "big game" pitchers.  He's just one guy and there's always injuries but what a terrific guy to build a staff around!

Sammy Long LHP(pre-arbitration, 2 options).  DOB:  7/8/1995.  6'2", 185 lbs.  AAA:  1-0, 2.05, 26.1 IP, 10.59 K/9, 3.08 BB/9.  MLB:  2-1, 5.53, 8.41 K/9, 3.32 BB/9.  Long was a swingman at both the AAA and MLB levels filling in where he was needed.  Has the stuff to be a MLB SP but needs to find some command somewhere, somehow.

Tyler Beede RHP( pre-arbitration, 0 options).  DOB:  5/23/1993.  6'2", 216 lbs.  AAA:  0-6, 6.86, 48.2 IP, 9.25 K/9, 8.32 BB/9. (Pitched 1 inning at MLB level and gave up 2 runs).  Coming off TJ surgery.  Pretty obvious control/command a huge issue which it often is for TJ's early in return.  Now on 60-day IL which he'll have to come off in a few days and be placed on the 40 man roster.  We'll see after that.  There are other players on the 40 man who I would DFA/waive before Beede.  2022 may be his last best shot though.

AAA:

Sean Hjelle RHP.  DOB: 5/7/1997.  6'11", 228 lbs.  AA:  3-2, 3.15, 65.2 IP, 19 BB, 69 K.  AAA:  2-6, 5.74, 52.1 IP, 29 BB, 35 K.  Still has work to do but has the basic tools to breakthrough anytime.  Pretty good bet to pitch for the Giants sometime in 2022.

Norwith Gudino RHP.  DOB:  11/22/1995.  6'2", 200 lbs.  AA:  1-1, 1.44, 25 IP, 10 BB, 39 K.  AAA:  4-1, 5.66, 35 IP, 13 BB, 47 K.  Swingman for the River Cats. Pitched will in 5 starts ranging from 3-5 IP.  

Matt Shoemaker RHP.  DOB:  9/27/1986,  6'2", 225 lbs.  AAA(Sacramento):  4-3, 4.83, 50.1 IP, 9 BB, 54 K.  Not sure if he is signed with the Giants for 2022 but I hope he is.  Veteran starting pitcher who fell on hard times.  Pitched well for the River Cats including some dominant starts.  I was a little surprised he was not brought up in Sept.

Logan Ondrusek RHP.  DOB:  2/13/1985.  6'8", 230 lbs.  AAA:  1-3, 4.78, 43.1 IP, 13 BB, 41 K.  Also not sure if he is signed for 2022.  Another reclamation project.

Ronnie Williams RHP.  DOB:  1/6/1996.  6'0", 170 lbs.  AA:  6-4, 2.45,  62.1 IP, 28 BB, 61 K.  AAA:  0-0, 4.02, 15.2 IP, 8 BB, 8 K.  

AA:  

Matt Frisbee RHP.  DOB:11/18/1996.  6'5", 215 lbs.  AA:  5-4, 3.77, 59.2 IP, 10 BB, 65 K.  AAA:  1-6, 7.64, 53 IP, 18 BB, 46 K.  Hit a wall after promotion to AAA which is not unusual in the PCL.  Can he make the adjustment or is that his ceiling?

A+:  

Seth Corry LHP.  DOB: 11/3/1998.  6'2", 195.  3-3, 5.99, 67.2 IP, 63 BB, 100 K.  Control issues returned with a vengeance.  Long way to go but has time.

Conner Nurse RHP.  DOB:  7/31/1999.  6'6", 210 lbs.  6-7, 4.86, 113 IP, 51 BB, 114 K.  Control issues held him back but also has time.

Kai-Wei Teng RHP.  DOB:  112/1/1998.  6'4", 260 lbs.  5-4, 4.33, 95.2 IP, 53 BB, 142 K.  Elite K numbers but needs to get BB's down. Getting a bit old for level.

A:  

Will Bednar RHP.  DOB:  6/13/2000.  6'2", 229 lbs.  Minors(2 levels):  0-0, 1.29, 7 IP, 1 BB, 6 K's.  #14 overall draft pick 2021.  Polished college SP with good stuff.  Should move fast.

Kyle Harrison LHP.  DOB:  8/12/2001.  6'2", 200 lbs.  4-3, 3.19, 98.2 IP, 52 BB, 157 K.  Centerpiece of 2020 draft even though he went in round 3.  Overslot signing bonus.  Dominant at times in his pro debut.  Still needs to work on lowering walk rate which is to be expected.  Future ace potential but a long way to go.

Carson Ragsdale RHP.  DOB:  5/25/1998.  6'8", 225 lbs.  8-6, 4.43, 113.2 IP, 45 BB, 167 K.  Great size. Should move up to A+ to start 2022.

Nick Swiney LHP.  DOB:  2/12/1999.  6'3", 185 lbs.  Minors(2 levels):  0-0, 0.84, 32.1 IP, 18 BB, 58 K.  Lost a lot of time on IL.  Hopefully healthy in 2022. Expect to see him at A+ Eugene.

Rookie:

Esmerlin Vinicio LHP.  DOB:  1/31/2003.  6'2", 141 lbs.  3-3, 2.64, 58 IP, 29 BB, 70 K.  International bonus baby from 2019 making with successful pro debut.

Trevor McDonald RHP.  DOB:  2/26/2001.  6'2", 180 lbs.  2-3, 3.86, 67.2 IP, 31 BB, 69 K.  Lower round HS draftee.  Giants are hoping he develops.

Manuel Mercedes RHP.  DOB:  9/21/2002.  6'3", 162 lbs.  3-3, 5.11, 56.1 IP, 25 BB, 62 K's.  Had some dominant starts but inconsistent.  Appears to have a high ceiling with usual risks of teenage pitchers.

Sonny Vargas RHP.  DOB:  11/8/2000.  6'2", 180 lbs.  6'2", 180 lbs.  5-5, 5.33, 54.1 IP, 18 BB, 69 K.  Getting a bit old for level.  COVID layoff hurt guys in this age range the most.

Giants Organizational Depth Charts: Outfield

 Making an outfield depth chart for the Giants is a challenge due to all of the mixing and matching and platoons which makes it all but impossible to break it down into separate positions.  I will list the OF's on the 40 man roster by fWAR and note the ones who are capable playing CF.  I will then list some of the more prominent OF prospects from Down On The Farm.  If I leave off your favorite sleeper prospect, feel free to give a short profile in the comments.

MLB:

Darin Ruf(LF only; Arbitration Eligible, MLBTR projected $2.6 M): .271/.385/.519, 16 HR, Def -1.6, 2.5 fWAR, 312 PA.  Since he's limited defensively to LF(and 1B), you might not have guessed that Ruf had the highest fWAR of any Giants OF in 2021 but he was ferocious at the plate and was only a slight negative on D.  No brainer for a contract tender.

Mike Yastrzemski(Mainly RF but can play CF; Arbitration Eligible, MLBTR projected $3.1 M): .224/.311/.457, 25 HR, Def -3.1, 2.2 fWAR, 532 PA).  Beyond the dingers, YtY's 2021 season was a bit of disappointing.  Injuries seemed to play a role and he seemed to get pull happy in the second half.  Projected arbitration price is low enough to tender him a contract but FZ should not let him stand in the way of a major upgrade.

Steven Duggar(Best Defensive CF; Pre-arbitration, 0 options):  .257/.330/.427, 8 HR, 7 SB, Def 5.1, 2.1 fWAR, 297 PA).  Duggar had a decent offensive season and is by far the best defensive OF on the 40 man roster.  His biggest challenge so far in his career is avoiding injury.  If he can, he deserves a shot at the fulltime CF job or at least the lefthanded half of a platoon.

Austin Slater(CF, RF, LF; Arbitration Eligible, MLBTR Projected $2.0).  .241/.320/.423, 12 HR, 15 SB, Def 4.0, 1.8 fWAR, 306 PA.  Versatile OF whose arbitration price is still reasonable.  Makes a nice CF platoon with Duggar.

Lamonte Wade Jr(LF, RF, CF; pre-arbitration, 0 options).  .253/.326/.482, 18 HR, 6 SB, Def -4.3, 1.6 fWAR, 381 PA).  Surprise breakthrough season earned him the Willie Mac Award.  Unfortunately, a couple of pretty big holes emerged in his swing that crippled him down the stretch and into the postseason.  Can he make the adjustment?

Alex Dickerson(LF, occasional RF; Arbitration eligible, MLBTR Projected $3 M).  .233/304/.420, 13 HR, Def-7.1, 0.2 fWAR, 312 PA.  Very disappointing season.  Maybe the accumulated injuries have taken their toll?  A defensive liability even in LF.  Widely believed to be a non-tender candidate.  Too bad because he seems like a really good dude.

In the Churn:  Jaylin Davis(has been churning a long time. Is he going to stick or get washed out?), Austin Dean, Luis Gonzalez(60 day IL- will need to be activated).  

AAA:

Heliot Ramos:  DOB 9/7/1999, 6'1", 190 lbs, B-R, T-R.  AA:  .237/.323/.432, 10 HR, 7 SB, 236 AB.  AAA:  .272/.323/.399, 4 HR, 8 SB, 213 AB.  Former #19 overall draft pick.  Numbers look like he he needs a bit more time in the minors but could be an option by midseason.

Bryce Johnson:  DOB:  10/27/1995, 6'1", 195 lbs, B-S, T-R.  AAA:  .286/.377/.433, 9 HR, 30 SB, 353 PA.  Surprisingly strong AAA season.  Has a chance for a MLB career as 4'th or 5'th OF.

AA:

Diego Rincones:  DOB:  6/14/1999.  6'0", 175 lbs. B-R, T-R.  A+:  .300/.385/.533, 5 HR, 90 AB.  AA:  .290/.373/.505, 10 HR, 186 AB.  Bat looks terrific.  Limited to LF where arm is best defensive weapon.  Future Value goes up if NL adopts DH.

A+: 

Ismael Munguia:  DOB:  10/19/1998, 5'10", 158 lbs. B-L, T-L.  A+:  .336/.366/.502, 9 HR, 15 SB, 333 AB.  Diminutive speedy CF type.  Terrific BA.  Projects as a possible 4'th OF.

Jairo Pomares:  DOB:  8/4/2000.  6'1", 185 lbs.  B-L, T-R.  A:  .372/.429/.693, 14 HR, 199 AB.  A+:  .262/.269/.505, 6 HR, 103 PA.  One of the "big 3" from the international class of 2018.  Destroyed the Cal league and held his own after promotion to S-K.  Projects as a big bat corner OF, but still has a way to go.

Armani Smith:  DOB:  7/19/1998.  6'4", 215 lbs.  B-R, T-R.  A:  .339/.365/.627, 4 HR, 59 AB.  A+:  .279/.351/.442, 8 HR, 258 AB.  A bit of a sleeper in the system. Tremendous size.  Projects as a slugging corner OF if he reaches ceiling.

A:  

Luis Matos:  DOB:  1/28/20002.  5'11", 160 lbs., B-R, T-R.  A:  .313/.358/.494, 15 HR, 21 SB, 451 PA.  There was not much to not like about Matos age 19 season.  Some analysts are putting him right behind Marco Luciano on Giants prospect lists.  Looking more like a potential 5-tool CF with a high ceiling.

Hunter Bishop:  DOB: 6/25/1998.  6'5", 210 lbs.  B-L, T-R.  Minors(3 teams):  .133/.286/.178, 45 AB.  Missed most of season with injury.  Former first round draft pick(first in FZ regime).  Showing signs of life in Arizona Fall League.

Grant McCray:  DOB:  12/7/2000.  6'2", 170 lbs.  B-L, T-R.  Rookie:  .309/.400/.455, 55 AB.  A:  .250/.299/.400.  Sleeper.  Tools.  I want to see what he can do with a full season in SJ next year.

Rookie:

Alexander Suarez:  DOB:  12/20/2001.  6'2", 160 lbs.  B-R, T-R.  Rookie:  .311/.379/.503, 7 HR, 16 SB, 193 AB.  Hit .308 in the DSL in 2019.  Backed that up in Arizona this season.  Looks like a terrific prospect who should be ready to move up to SJ for 2022.

Summary:  Nice mix of OF's at the MLB level with some terrific looking prospects coming up.  Room for major FA upgrade in the MLB OF.

Hot Stove Update: Cueto A Free Agent; The Churn Rolls On

No surprise here.  The Giants declined their $22 Million option on Johnny Cueto's contract and will pay him a $5 M buyout.  He is now a free agent.  He still could sign with the Giants which might be his best bet for a 1 yr opportunity to comeback and prove he's still a viable MLB option.  That may depend on how much success FZ has in filling out the rotation which right now consists of Logan Webb. 

*************************************************************************************

With so many roster spots opening up due to free agency, you knew FZ was going to kick The Churn into high gear.  He may need those spots down the road for free agent signings or to protect minor leaguers from the Rule 5 Draft, but he'll worry about that when the time comes.  Here's a quick breakdown of the three waiver wire adds from yesterday:

Hunter Harvey RHP.  DOB 12/9/1994.  6'3", 210 lbs.  AAA:  2-1, 8.10, 10 IP, 2 BB, 7 K.  MLB:  0-0, 4.15, 8.2 IP, 3 BB, 6 K.  Harvey is probably the most intriguing name here.  He's a former #22 overall draft pick by the Orioles(who else?) in 2013.  He's always had the physical tools and great stuff.  His big problem has been staying healthy.  The most number of innings he's ever pitched as a pro is 87.2 way back in 2014. Now the Giants pitcher whisperers will try to work their magic on him.  Low risk, very high reward pickup.

Austin Dean LF/1B.  DOB:  10/14/1993.  6'0", 215 lbs.  B-R, T-R.  AAA:  .213/.339/.404, HR, 12.5 BB%, 33.9 K%, 56 PA.  MLB:  .233/.342/.400, HR, 15.8 BB%, 28.9 K%, 38 PA.  Typical hitting profile for The Churn.  Slashed .337/.401/.635, 18 HR in 282 PA in AAA in 2019.  Hit 6 HR in 189 PA at MLB level same year.

Joe Palumbo LHP.  DOB:  10/26/1994.  6'1", 168 lbs.  AAA:  1-2, 13.50, 6.2 IP, 13.5 BB%, 9.45 K%.  Hey! In FZ we trust!  Churn on!

Giants Organizational Depth Charts: Shortstop

The Shortstop position seems set for the next two seasons with Brandon Crawford secured to a 2-year contract.  The only question about what happens after that is whether Marco Luciano stays at the position.

MLB:

Brandon Crawford(Under contract(2 yr/$32 M)- Crawford is coming off one of his best seasons.  Can he maintain the excellence as he enters his mid-30's?  D is usually the first to slip but he was a plus defender again last year.  Oh, and the arm is special.

Thairo Estrada(pre-arbitration, no options):  .273/.333/479, 7 HR in 132 PA.  Estrada came out of The Churn to put up impressive numbers and wrest the backup SS role from Mauricio Dubon who is also out of options and whose future with the Giants looks cloudy.  Other than Dubon, Estrada is the only guy on the 40 man roster who can back up Crawford at SS.

AAA:  Empty.  Expect the Giants to sign a minor league FA type or two.

AA:  

Will Wilson:  .251/.339/.497, 10 HR, 195 AB(A+); .189/.281/.306, 5 HR, 196 AB(AA). Wilson continues to struggle in the AFL.  Can he can get over the AA hump in 2022?

A+:

Marco Luciano:  .278/.373/.556, 18 HR, 266 AB(A); .217/.283/.295, 129 AB(A+).  Midseason promotions in are tough because not only are players moving up a level, the players who started at that level have had several months to get better too, but the exposure hopefully gives them a headstart on the next season.  Luciano is the Giants heir apparent to Brandon Crawford at the SS position.  He should be ready for MLB in 2 years if it all goes by script.

Tyler Fitzgerald:  .262/.342/.495, 19 HR, 12 SB, 382 AB.  Fitz played SS, 2B and 3B for the Emeralds and quietly had a nice season.  Ready to move up to AA where he will probably remain on the utility IF track which is not a bad place to be, especially if he can handle SS defensively at higher levels.

A:

Ghordy Santos:  .317/.378/.416, 101 AB's.  Has run hot and cold at the plate but seems to have found more consistency since bringing his game stateside.  Switch hitter which may explain the slow development of the bat.

Edison Mora:  .273/.372/.400 8 SB, 110 AB(Rookie); .242/.348/.333 99 AB(A).  7'th round draft pick from 2018(I don't remember that!).  Slow start to pro career but has shown improvement.

Rookie:

Aeverson Arteaga(ACL):  18 yo. .294/.367/.503, 9 HR, 8 SB, 197 AB.  Exciting numbers with surprising power in pro debut for 2019 international bonus baby.  Got in just 1 game for San Jose at end of season.  Another switch-hitter.

Diego Velasquez(ACL):  18 yo. .213/.282/.231.

Yeison Lemos(DCL): 19 yo. .225/.358/.349, 5 HR, 5 SB, 151 AB.

Ramon Peralta(DCL): 18 yo. .216/.345/.347, 4 HR, 10 SB, 167 AB.

Hot Stove League Update: Buster Posey To Announce Retirement

 It sure didn't take long for the first bombshell of the Hot Stove League to detonate.  Word broke today that Buster Posey will announce his retirement from baseball tomorrow.  Wow!  I probably should have seen that coming but most definitely did not.  It is hard to express in words how much Buster Posey meant to the team and to the fans over the past 12 years.  He, more than anyone else, was the heart and soul of the three championship teams.  I well remember the euphoria of him coming up in the middle of the 2010 season then leading the way to the championship.  I remember the total devastation early in 2011 of watching his career nearly end on a play that was so horrific, a whole new rule protecting catchers from intentional collisions by baserunners was introduced.  Then there was the comeback in 2012 culminating in another championship and the NL MVP.  That was the pinnacle but the dropoff was not dramatic as Buster turned in one 7 fWAR season after another until an arthritic hip that required surgery robbed him of his base at the plate.  Who knows what Buster feels in that hip now?  After what he's been through, I understand why he sees his 2021 season as his best chance to go out on his own terms and on top.

So, what comes next?  FZ may have tipped his hand when he declared in his postseason press conference Joey Bart is now ready.  Mike Krukow begs to differ but if FZ thinks so and Bart is the catcher of the future and worthy of his #2 overall draft pick pedigree, then it's time to make that commitment and see what he can do.  It's my guess Bart will face some bumpy roads. Trying to fill Buster's shoes may prove to be as tough as it was for guys trying to play CF after Willie Mays.

Giants Organizational Depth Charts: Third Base

 The Giants are set at 3B for 2022 with Evan Longoria under contract IF, and that's the issue, IF he can stay healthy.  They have a $13 M option for 2023 with a $5 M buyout which seems like a good bet for them to pick up, again, IF he stays healthy.

MLB:  

Evan Longoria(Under contract $19.5 M-AAV= $13 M):  Had a productives season when he was healthy until the last month of the regular season and into the postseason.  Time lost to injuries probably played a role in that.  He was a plus defender at the hot corner too.

Wilmer Flores($3.5 M option with $250 K buyout):  I think they will pick up the option.  Not great defensively but at least as good as Longo at the plate.

Jason Vosler(pre-arbitration/+options):  Lefty hitter with some pop who can play multiple IF positions.  Will likely ride the Sacramento shuttle again.

AAA:  Empty.  Vosler will probably start back here and David Villar could move up.

AA:  

David Villar:  .275/.374/.506, 29 2B, 20 HR, 5 SB in 385 AB.  Quietly had a great season at what is historically the toughest stop for Giants hitting prospects.  Should move up to AAA and could be in line for a mid-late season call up if the need arises.

A+:  

Sean Roby:  .241/.325/.464, 24 2B, 19 HR in 373 AB.  Solid walk rate but 30+% K rate. Is he ready for AA?  That seems to be the make or break level.

A:  

Casey Schmitt:  .247/.318/.406, 8 HR in 251 AB.  Maybe a bit disappointing numbers but this was first pro experience after 2020 draft.  Seemed like a bit of a project when he was drafted as some scouts liked him better as a pitcher.

Luis Toribio:  .229/.351/.356, 7 HR in 340 AB.  Actually played more 1B than 3B for SJ.  Lefty bat helps if future role is platoon. Disappointing BA and power numbers but solid OBP.  Power has time to develop at age 21.

Rookie:

Anthony Rodriguez(19 yo):  .224/.352/.352, 4 HR, 5 SB, 165 AB.  Never noticed him until I looked up ACL stats page.  First pro experience for 2019 international signing.  Struck out 62 times in 165 AB but also walked 29 times.  I'll call him a sleeper.

Giants Organizational Depth Charts: Second Base

This one is a bit more complex than other positions because the Giants did not really have a starting second baseman last year, partly by design and partly due to multiple IL trips for multiple players.  Donnie Barrels will turn 34 yo in December and is a free agent.  He is coming off down season compared to the previous two but still put up 1.1 fWAR and hit .338 over his last 30 games.  He's going to get a nice little payday from some team.

MLB:

Tommy La Stella(under contract):  La Stella was signed to a 3-year contract to be the bigger half of a platoon at 2B, but lost most of the season due to injuries.  He underwent Achilles tendon surgery right after the Giants postseason ended with a projected recovery time of 4 months which makes him iffy for the start of the regular season.  Another burning question for FZ is does he try to get by at 2B until Tommy returns or does he look for an upgrade and deal with the logjam when and if?

Wilmer Flores($3.5 M team option/$250 K buyout):  Flores could be the RH half of a 2B platoon although the Giants may prefer to maintain his versatility and he's not great defensively.

Thairo Estrada(pre-arbitation):  Estrada seems to have jumped ahead of Mauricio Dubon for a super-utility role including the ability to play SS.  Is he ready to get off the Sacramento shuttle for a full season role?

Mauricio Dubon(pre-arbitation):  Dubon's future suddenly looks very cloudy as the bat never fully developed.  Struggles at the plate may have a negative impact on the field.

AAA:  There are no significant 2B prospects at MLB level.  Look for a minor league FA signing or two.

AA:

Simon Whiteman stole 17 bases but hit just .236 with no power.  Probably not a true MLB caliber prospect.

A+:

Brett Auerbach slashed .256/.333/.533 with 15 HR and 18 SB for Eugene.  His ace in the hole is several games behind the plate.  A back up catcher who can play other positions or a position player who can also catch is a nice roster asset.  He should move up to AA for 2022.

A: 

Jimmy Glowenke slashed .256/.367/.444 with 13 HR's for San Jose.  He should move up to Eugene for 2022.

Rookie:

Wow!  Nothing to see here!  Most MLB 2B are converted SS who don't have quite enough arm to play SS at the MLB level anyway.

Organizational Depth Charts: First Base

Brandon Belt is a free agent so won't be listed on the depth chart.  It seems likely the Giants will make a QO.  It seems like if he accepted it would be a good deal for both him and the Giants.  They could also work out a 2-3 year contract at a lower AAV but his injury history is scary.  That's the only think hold him back from very large multi-year deal.

MLB:  

Wilmer Flores($3.5 M team option/$250 K buyout.  Expect Giants to exercise option) Flores can play multiple positions.  Giants could do worse than making him the RH side of a 1B platoon.

Darin Ruf(arbitration eligible, year 2.  Projected arbitration award- $2.6 M).  Ruf and Flores are similar players.  Both kill LHP's and are decent against RHP's.  After Belt got hurt, Ruf might have been the best hitter on the team!  Seems like a no-brainer to tender him a contract.

Lamonte Wade Jr(Pre-arbitration; Options?).  Wade Jr sure had a tremendous breakthrough season playing almost exclusively against RHP's.  A couple of big holes in his swing emerged late in the season and postseason casting a cloud over how much the Giants can count on him for 2022.  

AAA:  No MLB caliber prospects.  Jason Krizan played the most innings at 1B for the River Cats.  I think he's a minor league FA.

AA:  No MLB Caliber 1B prospects.  David Villar played mostly 3B but most likely could move over to 1B.

A+:  

Logan Wyatt- Lefty hitting 1B.  OBP .386 but with a low BA and little power.  Needs to hit for more power to be considered a serious MLB prospect at 1B.

Sean Roby- listed as 3B but played significant innings at 1B which is where his future probably lies.  Hit just .241 but with 19 HR's.  Future Value will increase significantly if NL adopts DH.

A:  No MLB caliber 1B prospects in San Jose.  Luis Toribio could move over from 3B in future.  Toribio is another prospect whose future value increases if DH adopted.

Rookie:

Garrett Frechette(ACL)- Frechette is a major sleeper prospect for the Giants with a sweet swing.  Hit .331 for his Arizona Complex League team.

Jacob Gonzalez(ACL)- Slashed .301/.360/.497 which is the right idea.  He's just getting a bit long in the tooth for Rookie ball.

If Belt turns down the QO and the Giants can't work out a deal with him(personally I would not sign him for longer than 1 year), they will likely look on the free agent or trade market for a lefty hitting 1B.  Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber or Yoshi Tsutsugo would be options.