Wow! I don't know for sure that someone is not trolling us with this, but MLB Trade Rumors reports the latest MLB proposal to the MLBPA contains a complete reworking of the arbitration system with at least part of the calculation of value based on fWAR or Fangraphs WAR. First a little background:
Fangraphs did not invent the concept of WAR, Wins Above Replacement. That would be Bill James who introduced Win Shares a few decades ago. It idea was to analyze baseball stats and quantify correlation to run production or prevention. That's easy, you may say. Just look up Runs and RBI's for hitters and ERA for pitchers and you're done. Ummm...not so fast. Unless you hit a solo HR, you don't score a run without another player driving you in and you don't get an RBI without another player getting on base ahead of you. Suddenly, stats like OBP and SLG%, K/9, BB/9 became the go-to stats in baseball discussions and that did not count the value of baserunning and defense.
Fangraphs, a baseball publication linked to the left here, made two major contribution to WAR:
1. The pioneered the inclusion of defensive metrics in the calculation.
2. Their longtime editor, Dave Cameron, who I believe now works for the Padres, pioneered and championed the translation of WAR into monetary value finding extraordinary correlations between WAR and free agent yearly salaries.
This proposal by MLB is probably a non-starter with elements that both the players and owners would ultimately find unacceptable but what a feather in Dave Cameron and Fangraphs hats! Something they basically invented and championed and took a lot of heat for in online discussions has now reportedly been proposed by MLB, no less, as the basis for arbitration awards in the next CBA. Ha ha! Maybe Dave Cameron leaked that story to MLBTR? Just kidding!
Here's a hat tip.
Last spring I heard from a reliable source that the possibility for a strike was high. There are lots of issues on the table from rule changes to the pension fund, but I have not heard much about any negotiations. A lockout seems to be likely, given the history. Wondering when will negotiations become more transparent. I notice that there is silence on FA signings. Me thinks that owners don't want to commit money to contracts that they don't know exactly what the terms are or if the terms will change under a new agreement.
ReplyDeleteA lockout doesn't have much teeth until about 2 weeks before the regular season starts so neither side has much incentive to make concessions until then. If you are not willing to go to the brink, you are not a good negotiator. On the other hand, both sides have a whole lot to lose when the gravy train stops so once the prospect of losing regular season games looms they will both have incentives to get something done.
DeleteIt seems a lot of FA's don't want to wait until March to know where they will be playing and do want the "security" of a contract. Signings may pik up.
ReplyDeleteLook for BB9 to sign!
I doubt if Boras will be in a hurry to sign his herd — he has a bunch
ESPN's Jeff Passan addressed this in ESPN+'s paid site, but it is recapped extensively by MLBTR for free:
Deletehttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/corey-seager-marcus-semien-rumors-sign-before-cba-lockout.html#comments
The Comments are not particularly kind to Passan, e.g. "So does Passan explain why he thinks free agents will sign prior to dec 1? Because that goes against the thought process of every other free agency before the cba is signed" but there is a lot of thought in it.