Every year MLBTR posts a list of their top 50 MLB free agents with predictions of what their contract will be both in number of years and in total money. This is a list of MLBTR's top 50 free agents who have already signed with a comparison to what the players actually received in their contracts. Coloumns will be Name, Team, Predicted Years, Actual Years, Variance of Actual Years from Predicted Years, Predicted Money($), Actual Money($), Variance of Actual Money from Predicted Money, Percent Variance(+/-). At the end, we'll post Average Variances and Average Absolute Value of Variances and see how accurate MLBTR is in prediction free agent contracts.
Corey Seager(Rangers): 10 yr. 10 yr. 0 yr. $305 M. $325 M. +$20 M. +6.6%.
Kevin Gausman(Blue Jays): 6 yr. 5 yr. -1 yr. $138 M. $110 M. -$28 M. -25.5%.
Marcus Semien(Rangers): 6 yr. 7 yr. +1 yr. $138 M. $175 M. +$37 M. +$26.8%.
Robbie Ray(Mariners): 5 yr. 5 yr. 0 yr. $130 M. $115 M. -$15 M. -11.5%.
Max Scherzer(Mets): 3 yr. 3 yr. 0 yr. $120 M. $130 M. +$10 M. +8.3%.
Marcus Stroman(Cubs): 5 yr. 3 yr. -2 yr. $110 M. $71 M. - $29 M. -26.3%.
Javier Baez(Tigers): 5 yr. 6 yr. +1 yr. $100 M. $140 M. +$40M. +40%.
Starling Marte(Mets): 4 yr. 4 yr. 0 yr. $80 M. $78 M. -$2 M. -2.5%.
Eduardo Rodriguez(Tigers): 5 yr. 5 yr. 0 yr. $70 M. $77 M. +$7 M. +10%.
Chris Taylor(Dodgers): 4 yr. 4 yr. 0 yr. $64 M. $60 M. -$4 M. -6.3%.
Raisel Iglesias(Angels): 4 yr. 4 yr. 0 yr. $56 M. $58 M. +$2 M. +3.6%.
Jonathan Gray(Rangers): 4 yr. 4 yr. 0 yr. $56 M. $56 M. 0 M. 0%.
Anthony DeSclafani(Giants): 3 yr. 3 yr. 0 yr. $42 M. $36 M. -6 M. -14.3%.
Justin Verlander(Astros): 2 yr. 2 yr. 0 yr. $40 M. $50 M. +10 M. +25%.
Avisail Garcia(Marlins): 3 yr. 4 yr. +1 yr. $36 M. $53 M. +$17 M. +47.2%.
Alex Wood(Giants): 3 yr. 2 yr. - 1 yr. $30 M. $25 M. - $5 M. -16.7%.
Steven Matz(Cardinals): 3 yo. 4 yr. +1 yr. $27 M. $44 M. +$17 M. +62.8%.
Kendall Graveman(White Sox): 3 yr. 3 yr. 0 yr. $27 M. $24 M. -$3 M. -$11.1%.
Mark Canha(Mets): 2 yr. 2 yr. 0 yr. $24 M, $26.5 M. +$2.5 M. +10.4%.
Eduardo Escobar(Mets): 2 yr. 2 yr. 0 yr. $20 M. $20 M. 0%.
Brandon Belt(Giants): 1 yr(accepts QO). 1 yr(QO). 0 yr. $18.4 M(QO). $18.4 M(QO). $0. 0%.
Noah Syndergaard(Angels): 1 yr(accepts QO). 1 yr. 0 yr. $18.4 M(QO). $21 M. +$3 M. +14.1%.
Corey Knebel(Phillies): 1 yr. 1 yr. 0 yr. $18 M. $10 M. -$8 M. -44.4%.
Alex Cobb(Giants): 2 yr. 2 yr. 0 yr. $16 M. $20 M. +$4 M. +25%.
Hector Neris(Astros): 2 yr. 2 yr. 0 yr. $14 M. $14 M. $0. 0%.
Mark Melancon(D'Backs): 2 yr. 2 yr. 0 yr. $14 M. $14 M. $0. 0%.
Corey Kluber(Rays): 1 yr. 1 yr. 0 yr. $12 M. $8 M. -$4 M. -33.3%.
Yan Gomes(Cubs): 2 yr. 2 yr. 0 yr. $10 M. $13 M. +3 M. +30%.
Andrew Heaney(Dodgers): 1 yr. 1 yr. 0 yr. $6 M. $8.5 M. +$2.5 M. +41.7%.
Average Variance= +$2.5 M
Average Variance(absolute values)= $9.2 M
Average Percent Variance(% of predicted)= 4.9%.
Average Percent Variance(absolute value, % of predicted)= 18%.
Cumulative Percent Variance= +4.1%
Cumulative Percent Variance(absolute value)= $15.4%
Conclusions: MLBTR slightly underestimated the overall market. While variance for individual contracts was fairly high, they overestimated and underestimated approximately equally so their average estimated contract is quite close. They got the number of years right most of the time and of the ones they missed on most were by just one year.
Based on MLBTR's estimates, it appears both Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood gave significant discounts to stay with the Giants while they slightly overpaid Alex Cobb to sign coming from the Angels. And of course, almost everybody thought the Giants would give Brandon Belt a QO and that he would accept.
I was thinking about doing the same analysis for Fangraphs estimates but just doing a quick review shows they were far less accurate than MLBTR and consistently underestimated the market by a large margin.
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year Doc and thanks for posting interesting takes such as the one above. My (baseball) hope for 2022 is that the Giants get Suzuki. I would take Suzuki over Castellanos as he is 2 years younger and cheaper. Risk of committing to a guy from overseas, but in this case, risk we must.
ReplyDeleteAnother bat and an arm is my New Year's wish for the Giants.
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