This one is a lot easier than it usually is because 4/5's of the Giants starting rotation are now free agents. Again, on the minor league level, I will mention significant SP prospects rather than every single one. Again, if I miss your favorite sleeper prospect feel free to tell us about him in a comment.
MLB:
Logan Webb RHP(pre-arbitration). DOB: 11/18/1996. 6'1", 220 lbs. 11-3, 3.03, 148.1 IP, 9.59 K/9, 2.18 BB/9, 60.9 GB%. Webb emerged as the ace of the staff by the end of the season and was nails in the postseason too joining the tradition of Giants "big game" pitchers. He's just one guy and there's always injuries but what a terrific guy to build a staff around!
Sammy Long LHP(pre-arbitration, 2 options). DOB: 7/8/1995. 6'2", 185 lbs. AAA: 1-0, 2.05, 26.1 IP, 10.59 K/9, 3.08 BB/9. MLB: 2-1, 5.53, 8.41 K/9, 3.32 BB/9. Long was a swingman at both the AAA and MLB levels filling in where he was needed. Has the stuff to be a MLB SP but needs to find some command somewhere, somehow.
Tyler Beede RHP( pre-arbitration, 0 options). DOB: 5/23/1993. 6'2", 216 lbs. AAA: 0-6, 6.86, 48.2 IP, 9.25 K/9, 8.32 BB/9. (Pitched 1 inning at MLB level and gave up 2 runs). Coming off TJ surgery. Pretty obvious control/command a huge issue which it often is for TJ's early in return. Now on 60-day IL which he'll have to come off in a few days and be placed on the 40 man roster. We'll see after that. There are other players on the 40 man who I would DFA/waive before Beede. 2022 may be his last best shot though.
AAA:
Sean Hjelle RHP. DOB: 5/7/1997. 6'11", 228 lbs. AA: 3-2, 3.15, 65.2 IP, 19 BB, 69 K. AAA: 2-6, 5.74, 52.1 IP, 29 BB, 35 K. Still has work to do but has the basic tools to breakthrough anytime. Pretty good bet to pitch for the Giants sometime in 2022.
Norwith Gudino RHP. DOB: 11/22/1995. 6'2", 200 lbs. AA: 1-1, 1.44, 25 IP, 10 BB, 39 K. AAA: 4-1, 5.66, 35 IP, 13 BB, 47 K. Swingman for the River Cats. Pitched will in 5 starts ranging from 3-5 IP.
Matt Shoemaker RHP. DOB: 9/27/1986, 6'2", 225 lbs. AAA(Sacramento): 4-3, 4.83, 50.1 IP, 9 BB, 54 K. Not sure if he is signed with the Giants for 2022 but I hope he is. Veteran starting pitcher who fell on hard times. Pitched well for the River Cats including some dominant starts. I was a little surprised he was not brought up in Sept.
Logan Ondrusek RHP. DOB: 2/13/1985. 6'8", 230 lbs. AAA: 1-3, 4.78, 43.1 IP, 13 BB, 41 K. Also not sure if he is signed for 2022. Another reclamation project.
Ronnie Williams RHP. DOB: 1/6/1996. 6'0", 170 lbs. AA: 6-4, 2.45, 62.1 IP, 28 BB, 61 K. AAA: 0-0, 4.02, 15.2 IP, 8 BB, 8 K.
AA:
Matt Frisbee RHP. DOB:11/18/1996. 6'5", 215 lbs. AA: 5-4, 3.77, 59.2 IP, 10 BB, 65 K. AAA: 1-6, 7.64, 53 IP, 18 BB, 46 K. Hit a wall after promotion to AAA which is not unusual in the PCL. Can he make the adjustment or is that his ceiling?
A+:
Seth Corry LHP. DOB: 11/3/1998. 6'2", 195. 3-3, 5.99, 67.2 IP, 63 BB, 100 K. Control issues returned with a vengeance. Long way to go but has time.
Conner Nurse RHP. DOB: 7/31/1999. 6'6", 210 lbs. 6-7, 4.86, 113 IP, 51 BB, 114 K. Control issues held him back but also has time.
Kai-Wei Teng RHP. DOB: 112/1/1998. 6'4", 260 lbs. 5-4, 4.33, 95.2 IP, 53 BB, 142 K. Elite K numbers but needs to get BB's down. Getting a bit old for level.
A:
Will Bednar RHP. DOB: 6/13/2000. 6'2", 229 lbs. Minors(2 levels): 0-0, 1.29, 7 IP, 1 BB, 6 K's. #14 overall draft pick 2021. Polished college SP with good stuff. Should move fast.
Kyle Harrison LHP. DOB: 8/12/2001. 6'2", 200 lbs. 4-3, 3.19, 98.2 IP, 52 BB, 157 K. Centerpiece of 2020 draft even though he went in round 3. Overslot signing bonus. Dominant at times in his pro debut. Still needs to work on lowering walk rate which is to be expected. Future ace potential but a long way to go.
Carson Ragsdale RHP. DOB: 5/25/1998. 6'8", 225 lbs. 8-6, 4.43, 113.2 IP, 45 BB, 167 K. Great size. Should move up to A+ to start 2022.
Nick Swiney LHP. DOB: 2/12/1999. 6'3", 185 lbs. Minors(2 levels): 0-0, 0.84, 32.1 IP, 18 BB, 58 K. Lost a lot of time on IL. Hopefully healthy in 2022. Expect to see him at A+ Eugene.
Rookie:
Esmerlin Vinicio LHP. DOB: 1/31/2003. 6'2", 141 lbs. 3-3, 2.64, 58 IP, 29 BB, 70 K. International bonus baby from 2019 making with successful pro debut.
Trevor McDonald RHP. DOB: 2/26/2001. 6'2", 180 lbs. 2-3, 3.86, 67.2 IP, 31 BB, 69 K. Lower round HS draftee. Giants are hoping he develops.
Manuel Mercedes RHP. DOB: 9/21/2002. 6'3", 162 lbs. 3-3, 5.11, 56.1 IP, 25 BB, 62 K's. Had some dominant starts but inconsistent. Appears to have a high ceiling with usual risks of teenage pitchers.
Sonny Vargas RHP. DOB: 11/8/2000. 6'2", 180 lbs. 6'2", 180 lbs. 5-5, 5.33, 54.1 IP, 18 BB, 69 K. Getting a bit old for level. COVID layoff hurt guys in this age range the most.
Ryan Murphy?
ReplyDeleteGetting pitchers to San Francisco for comeback attempts may not be easy without the "legend" behind the plate.
ReplyDeleteWell, Kuip made sure to hammer that point home to any prospective FA pitchers out there. If I were Farhan, I would not be happy about that at all!
DeleteTristan Beck pitched in AA last year. Perhaps he begins in AAA this season with the idea being a callup sometime this year.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking forward to Hjelle and Teng soon.
Don't sleep on Ryan Murphy RHP – DOB: 10/08/1999. 6'1" 190 lbs. – 5th round pick in 2020
ReplyDeleteCombined in San Jose and Eugene – 6-4, 2.52 ERA, 107.1 innings, 72 hits, 164 SO & only 26 walks
APGiantsfan
Curious about thoughts on Prelander Berroa seemed to have a great year in A ball
ReplyDeleteThat's not encouraging!
ReplyDeleteSince the Giants won it all back in 2010, they went to the playoffs every other year through 2016. In the odd years, after each post season, they suffered a lapse: -6 games in 2011, then -18, -4, and -23, an average of almost 13 per year.
Certainly, losing Posey, 5 of the 6 SPs with the most starts, and potentially Belt, with an old team getting older, and after an absolutely phenomenal year, a record year, a significant drop will follow.
How bad?
Would we be happy with 90 wins? It made the playoffs for St Louis this year.
Unless Farhan manages to pull a bunch of rabbits out of the hat, again, 87 wins might be a good year. It got the Giants into the playoffs in 2016.
I'm gonna guess Farhan and co. will be aggressive in addressing the obvious regression to come. That'll mean signing at least 5 or 6 pitchers of various quality.
ReplyDeleteIf they can resign Gausman for something like 3/65 and Wood for 2/24, that'll be a good start. If they can't sign Gausman, they might look hard at second tier guys like Jonathan Gray and Marcus Stroman.
Then Farhan can do what he does best--sign guys to one-year "prove yourself" deals.
I think guys like Sherzer, Verlander, and Rodon will be too expensive for one year deals. I'd like them to kick the tires on Yusei Kikuchi, who I have a perhaps irrational gut feeling he can get to the next level under our pitching coaches. Has elite stuff, just needs to be able to harness it better. Also Corey Kluber for around 10 mil is a gamble worth taking.
If trade market, raid the Reds. Get Luis Castillo back or trade for Sonny Gray.
I'd be happy with this rotation:
Kevin Gausman - or Castillo, Sonny Gray
Alex Wood (L)
Logan Webb
Yusei Kikuchi (L)
Corey Kluber
I don't know that Gaussman is going to get another $20M contract at all, let alone one worth that at 3 years - perhaps on another 1 year deal to see if he can stay healthy through an entire season, and pitch in the playoffs.
DeleteAlso, I don't think it's realistic offering a 1 year deal to Scherzer OR Verlander, OR Rodon for that matter. None of these guys are even a slight bet to leave FA with less than a 3 year contract (Verlander perhaps 2, b/c age > injury history in predicting downtrends, and he's fighting against both). However, all 3 of those guys should be on Zaidi's short list of impact players to vie for with big money.
Pitching is the key to getting this team back to 2021 heights.
With a massive coffer and an undeniable needs - along with a fan base now expecting success and not another 'we'll give it a try' year - I hope that one if not more of those FA's end up here in Orange & Black.
Verlander and Scherzer would both be worth in the neighborhood of $30mil methinks, though far different contract lengths. Rodon...maybe $25M?
Love Rodon's potential but he seems like a very scary injury risk to me.
DeleteGiven what we know (or think): no Posey, 4 of 5 empty SP slots, no Belt at this posting, no Bryant, likely no Solano/Dickerson, no Chatwood/Kazmir/Watson who selected FA and not presupposing the inevitable moves Zaidi will (have to) make, what's the guess how much the Giants will regress in 2022 after adding Bart and likely Ramos and Hjelle to the returning group plus unknown additions?
ReplyDeleteA. > 91 wins
B. 87-91
C. 81-86
D. < .500
FWIW, projections for Bryant among half dozen relatively easily found on the web have a very broad range:
NY Post 6 years, $140 M
MLBTR 6 years, $160 M
Sportsnrut 5 years, $125 M
Bleacherreport 7 years, $250 M
Hmm Baby 6 years, $160 M
Sports Expert 5 years, $145
Even the outlier from Bleacher report doesn't sound bad. Welcome back, Kris!
FG's Ben Clements: 8 years, $200 M
DeleteMedian Crowdsource: 6 years, $150.0 M
Then one needs to add Scott Boras' extortion.
It's a Fit.
With "Dear Leader" gone, the return of "il Capitano" (many say he will), and Bryant and Crawford restore the strong triumvirate that strengthens the Giants.
With money left for SP's.
If 2021 taught us anything it is the folly of win projections. I'll wait to see what FZ puts together before I start speculating, especially on the pitching side. 2022 will definitely be a test of his Executive wizardry and of the "secret sauce" the Giants coaching staff seems to have found for reviving careers.
DeleteFor reference, Ben Clemens of FG has Gausman for 3/54. I think he beats that just from the Giants offer. Median crowdsource of FG has 4/76. On the other end of the spectrum mlbtraderumors has 6/138. I think that's way too much but we've seen crazier contracts than that before.
ReplyDeleteI also like Ryan Murphy and Prelander Berroa. Eric Silva was this years HS pick that they gave overslot money to. I'm also looking forward to see what Rohan Handa can do. Giants have some intriguing pitching coming along.
ReplyDeleteHa! They drafted so many pitchers this year I lost track of them. It will be fun to see how they shake out.
Delete...which reminds me...I will try to do a draft review sometime this offseason.
DeleteThat sounds great I appreciate it!
DeleteI also believe Matt Shoemaker is a free agent, although it would be nice to see him back in AAA for depth.
ReplyDeleteI saw that Shoemaker and Ondrusek are both free agents. I'd also like to see them re-sign Shoemaker. He's always had good peripheral numbers even when the ERA wasn't there.
DeleteIn addition to Shoemaker and Ondrusek, also declaring Free Agency
ReplyDeleteRHP Daniel Alvarez
RHP Silvino Bracho
RHP Tyler Cyr
RHP Trevor Hildenberger
RHP Sam Wolff
RHP Logan Ondrusek
RHP Matt Shoemaker
RHP Aaron Blair
RHP Rico Garcia
RHP Ryan Halstead
RHP Akeel Morris
RHP Raffi Vizcaino
RHP Gerson Garabito
RHP Jesus Tona
RHP Jasier Herrera
LHP Luis Amaya
LHP Phil Pfeifer
C Ronnie Freeman
C Bryan Torres
C Andres Angulo
C Bruce Maxwell
2B Jason Krizan
2B Arismendy Alcantara
2B Peter Maris
3B Mitchell Tolman
OF Braden Bishop
OF Joe McCarthy
OF Luis Alexander Basabe
OF Sandro Fabian