Most analysts agree the Giants have two more big needs to fill before the season starts: A RH bat for the OF and another SP. If you start by assuming the Giants can afford to spend up to the CBT threshold, or at least close to it, they have plenty of room to spend. On the other hand, a rumor circulated this week that the Giants are not interested in signing a 9-figure contract with any player this winter, which completely changes the field of what players they may be interested in signing. With that in mind, let's to a comp for two free agent OF's at the opposite ends of the projected cost spectrum and see who you would sign if you were FZ and Giants ownership.
Kris Bryant 3B/OF(actually any position other than C and P). DOB: 1/4/1992. B-R, T-R. 6'5", 230 lbs.
2021(2 teams): .265/.353/.481, 25 HR, 10 SB, 10.6 BB%, 23.0 K%, 3.6 fWAR.
2022(Steamer): .251/..343/.445, 23 HR, 7 SB, 10.8 BB%, 23.2 K%, 2.7 fWAR.
Projected FA Contract(MLBTR): 6 yrs/$160 M.
Strengths: Versatility, power, can carry a team for long stretches, relative youth for a FA, relatively affordable.
Weaknesses: Below average defender at all positions, can have long cold stretches, frequent injuries over past several years, projected length and total cost of contract.
Tommy Pham OF. DOB: 3/8/1988. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 223 lbs.
2021(Padres): .229/.340/.383, 15 HR, 14 SB, 13.9 BB%, 22.8 K%, 1.5 fWAR.
2022(Steamer): .258/.354/.429, 18 HR, 15 SB, 12.2 BB%, 21.8 K%, 2.2 fWAR.
Projected FA Contract(MLBTR): Honorable Mention out of top 50. FA's in 40-50 range getting 1-2 years at $6-9 M/yr. Let's say 1 yr/$8 M.
Strengths: Versatility(does not play IF, but can play all 3 OF's positions), Great OBP skills, relatively poor 2021 may be due to offseason stabbing injury and resulting deconditioning which should be in past with full offseason to prep, possible motivation to bounce back, power and speed when healthy, low cost, short term commitment.
Weaknesses: 2020 was also a poor season(small sample), lack of power over last 2 seasons, advancing age(34 in Jan, 2022).
Q: If you are FZ and Giants ownership, which of these two FA's do you sign?:
Kris Bryant
Tommy Pham
Neither
Neither
ReplyDeletePrefer Mr Suzuki to both.
Great. Maybe you could share why?
DeleteI think you can get Seiyo for half the money of Bryant, with more upside? A guy in his prime vs a guy in his gentle decline phase. Comes with more risk and less versatility, but he’s assuredly a better OFer, too.
DeleteThe D, $$$, and age are the factors that informed my preference for Suzuki.
DeleteAlso contract length.
That said, I'm all in with whatever Z decides.
The success stories for Asian hitters begin with Ichiro and end with Matsui and there's a yawning chasm in between. This Suzuki may be in their class, but I see him as significantly more risky than Bryant/Castellanos.
DeleteOne reason not to spend near the CBT threshold (which will probably be HIGHer than it was — purported to be one of the union's goals) would be it could restrain July flexibility.
ReplyDeleteBryant is no Harper — who is — but reportedly FZ went to 12 years $310,000,000 to get the guy he or ownership or both wanted. Bryant is a good fit and good teammate so maybe exceeding $100M ($150M?) for him is possible.
Bryant is a great fit and IMO is well worth the MLBTR projection, but projections on him are all over the place. If FZ insists on going cheap to prove how smart he is(not saying he is not) and impress his bosses, Tommy Pham seems like a great buy-low option.
DeleteAgreed, but isn't Pham roughly compared to Bryant as Brysnt is to Harper?
DeleteBryant might be a waste of the latter half of his contract, but if his regression is consistent with age, don't the myriad of low-cost prospect in the system to fill the outfield such as, is some sort of value order, Ramos, Matos, Bishop, Pomares, Gonzales, Rincones, Suarez, McCray, Smith, Labour, Munguia, Davis, Auerbach (?), and Fabian (?) present a fair OF future for the Giants plua what ever dumpster diving FZ does.
This is in opposition to the current theme but back end wastefulness may be compensated by front end gap filling.
Could we sign both? I think Bryant’s versatility helps make up for his lack of proficiency on the defensive side and his bat should be a plus for the next 3-4 years. I definitely want him back. Pham is a classic low-risk high upside signing who could keep the line moving and maybe even return a decent prospect at the trade deadline if he plays well. This might create a logjam in the outfield but another bat is much needed. Could Bryant play a passable 2B? Sure would open up a lot of options if he could!
ReplyDeleteSigning both is an interesting idea. I thought about making "Both" an option.
DeleteSteamer has Bryant projected at 2.7 WAR, Pham at 2.2 WAR. Pham's character is also at question after the stabbing of him outside a San Diego strip club last year. Bryant's character was outstanding the way he fit into the Giant's team concept last year. If it is a question of one or the other, Bryant. Depends on what the price tag and length of contract is though.
ReplyDeleteSince Pham is likely to sign for a tiny fraction of what Bryant will sign for, that's obviously a factor.
Deletevalue/$$ says go for Pham, and use the $$$ elsewhere
ReplyDeleteThe question is what other players constitute "elsewhere"? The options got a lot more scarce leading up to the lockout. Should a team coming off a 107 win season and a ton of room under the CBT be looking for value or for the hammer that will get them past the first round of the postseason? At this point, the Giants are less talented than they were at the end of last season. Without signing Bryant, Castellanos or Suzuki plus a #1 or #2 SP, it's tough to see how they will enter the 2022 season improved.
DeleteFarhan could throw us a curve and go after Correa, dude is a stud muffin on offense and defense. Zaidi seems willing to push the chips in for the right guy, like he did with Harper.
DeleteSF is THE place to pitch. I'd imagine we end up with 2-3 more SP's on rebound deals to fill out the rotation.
Fresh SP's for the playoffs is the next code I expect Zaidi to crack. He's the man.
Although there is an argument that the Giants should not let Brandon Crawford keep them from signing Correa, I just don't see them moving Crawford off SS after extending him for 2 more seasons and I don't see Correa signing if he's not going to play there. So I don't see the Giants signing Correa.
DeleteKris Bryant is the player I'd sign if I was FZ due his relative youth, versatility, power hitting. He was a great fit to the Giants despite being below average defensively. He showed in the NLDS that he still has an impact bat. Although Tommy Pham has the good OBP stat and plays all three OF positions that FZ would like, he will be 34 years old, coming off 2 straight subpar offense years which makes him a gamble to sign even for 1 year. There have been reports that the Giants were underwhelmed with Bryant's play and don't think his swing will age well. Who knows how Bryant's market will develop, maybe the Giants offer him a 3 or 4 year deal with a higher AAV to get him signed. I heard on that same report while the Giants will shy away from 9 figure deals, they will spend aggressively on mid tier free agents, Rodan and Suzuki come to mind. There are a lot of free agents yet to sign. I'll wait till the end of the off-season to determine how well the Giants did.
ReplyDeletePham, unless Bryant comes on a shorter or much cheaper deal than projected. I am ALL IN on platoons and flexible lineups. Bryant's poor D stood out and made me nervous.
ReplyDeleteI kinda like Baggs idea of a McCutchen reunion, Ruf-Slater-McCutchen vs lefties would be sweet and cheap!
Sign Correa move Crawford to 3rd , nothing gets by the infield , Longoria DH if he performs
ReplyDeleteSign Donny Barrels at 2nd