Outfield has been a weak link for the Giants now for at least two seasons. For them to have any hope of competing in 2019, they need to significantly upgrade at least one and more realistically two of their starting OF positions. Of course one way to do that is to flex their financial muscle and sign Bryce Harper for whatever it takes. I love Bryce Harper but don't see him as a great fit for AT&T Park and I'm not sure his track record justifies that type of franchise player investment. A more reasonable free agent target might be AJ Pollock who I think is a good fit for the ballpark, but even I would not spring for the 6 years he is rumored to be asking for.
Another way of addressing the need is through trades. The problem with trades is the Giants probably don't have enough of the type of prospects teams would be looking to get in return for established MLB outfielders. That leaves "buy low" options which are supposed to be Farhan Zaidi's forte. Three trades this offseason so far prove that "buy low" options are available and the price in prospects is something the Giants should be able to easily meet.
Trade #1: Brewers trade OF Domingo Santana to the Mariners for OF Ben Gamel and RHP Noah Zavolas. After a breakout 2017 in which Santana hit 30 HR's and stole 15 bases, he got shunted to the bench and then to the minors in 2018 after the BrewCrew obtained Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Santana strikes out a ton but has strong walk rates and has the obvious power potential. His Steamer projection for 2019: .237/.329/.406, 19 HR, 11.3 BB%, 32.8 K%. Maybe not exactly what you are hoping for, but a large upgrade on anybody on the Giants current roster. That is a deal the Giants easily have the resources to top.
Trade #2: Brewers Trade OF Keon Broxton to the Mets for RHP Bobby Wahl, RHP Adam Hill and 2B Felix Valerio. Broxton had a 20/20 season in 2017 in 463 PA before also being shunted to the bench and the minors in 2018. He's a tremendous athlete who is not the offensive force Domingo Santana is. He also strikes out a ton but also has strong walk rates and is a tremendous defender in CF. He would be a defensive force in either RF or CF in AT&T Park. Again, the package the Mets gave up does not include anyone you are likely to read about on top prospect articles and lists.
Trade #3: Astros Trade OF J.D. Davis to the Mets with IF Cody Bohanek for IF Luis Santana, OF Ross Adolph and C Scott Manea. Davis is not the athlete that either Domingo Santana or Keon Broxton are but he has "light tower" power. He has mashed his way up the Astros ladder, but has struggled in 2 MLB tries albeit small samples. He doesn't cover much ground in the OF but has a cannon for an arm and of course the power. His K rates are high but not as high as Santana or Broxton and his BB rates are solid. He may not be better prospect than Mac Williamson, but unlike Mac he has 2 options left so could be stashed in AAA if Mac were to beat him out for the starting LF job. Again, the cost on prospects was negligible for the Mets.
There are undoubtedly other OF available in similar deals out there and maybe some of them look more promising to Farhan Zaidi, or maybe he has bigger fish to fry that he's keeping to himself. On the other hand, these are 3 deals that look like upgrades on the Giants current roster that they have the resources to make and obviously did not require waiting out the market. I will compare future Giants signings and trades against these 3 in judging the success or failure of this offseason.
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I’d note that Zaidi has at his side Zack Minasian, his own appointee for pro scouting, whom he got from Milwaukee. Minasian should have Zaidi’s trust, plus deep insider knowledge of Santana and Broxton, and of what the Brewers might want from the Giants in return for either. Given that special access, mightn’t one question whether Santana and Broxton were good fits for the Giants? The trade markets didn’t rank either of them high, if one is to go by the seemingly paltry return the Brewers were able to get for them; and the Brewers FO is one of the shrewdest in the NL. My own provisional inference would be that neither their employers, who knew them well, nor anyone else in MLB thought Santana or Broxton very desirable. Ditto Zaidi and Minasian.
ReplyDeleteThat's a nice appeal to an inferred authority there, Campanari.
DeleteIf you read my post carefully, you will note that I did leave open the possibility that there are other targets out there that Zaidi might find more promising or he may have bigger fish to fry that he's not tipping his hand on.
All I am saying is these are benchmark early trades against which we can judge any future trades he may make this offseason. I, for one, hope he finds a couple of great ones.
Speaking of which, the rumored Madbum trade to the Brewers has the Giants insisting on Corey Ray, a top outfield prospect with the Brewers be included. Santana would have a good acquisition and a upgrade to what they have.
ReplyDeleteIf the Giants could get Corbin Burnes, Corey Ray and a lower level lottery ticket prospect for Bumgarner, I I think I'd take it.
DeleteFrom Jayson Stark @ The Athletic via Twitter:
ReplyDelete"By my calculations the 5 NL West teams combined have added zero major-league outfielders! And only 5 major league free agents have signed with those 5 teams: Murphy (Col) Kelly (LA) Kinsler (SD) Richards (SD) Venditte (SF)"
The Giants' depth chart on RosterResouce also includes the 2 Rule 5 players the Giants "added" (Ferguson and Bergen), with a total Luxury Tax payroll of just under $166 mill.
Short of landing Harper, Pollock, and Keuchel, this is not a roster to be feared anywhere in major league baseball land.