Bryce Johnson, OF. DOB: 10/27/1995. B-S, T-R. 6'1", 190 lbs. Drafted 2017 Round 6.
2018 A+: .249/.339/.324, 18 2B, 6 3B, 1 HR, 31 SB, 10.6 BB%, 22.7 K%, 511 PA.
Bryce Johnson is a slap and boogie hitter with almost no power. Despite his lack of power, he has a knack for taking a walk and he is fast which means he has a chance to make it to MLB as a CF/leadoff hitter. On the other hand, he'll probably have to develop at least some gap power to keep pitchers honest enough to maintain that walk rate. Should get the chance to take it to the next level in AA Richmond for 2019.
Thursday, January 31, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #37 Johneshwy Fargas
Johneshwy Fargas, OF. DOB: 12/15/1994. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 180 lbs. Drafted 2013 Round 11.
2018 A+: .288/.354/.421, 9 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 47 SB, 6.7 BB%, 15.6 K%, 315 PA.
After he hit .194 in his second try in San Jose then .205 after a demotion to Augusta in 2017, I've gotta admit to admit I gave up on Johneshwy Fargas. I also have to admit I don't know for sure if Fargas is still in the Giants organization. 2018 was his 6'th pro season and I think that qualifies him for minor league free agency. He's still listed on the SJ roster, so I'm running with it. Third time in San Jose was a charm for Johneshwy(I think we've settled on Jon-esh-wee as the pronunciation of his name) and he posted the best statistical season of his pro career. Now, if he can just not do a faceplant in Richmond, we can start dreaming about a leadoff hitter who gets on base at a .350 clip and steals 60 bases.
2018 A+: .288/.354/.421, 9 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 47 SB, 6.7 BB%, 15.6 K%, 315 PA.
After he hit .194 in his second try in San Jose then .205 after a demotion to Augusta in 2017, I've gotta admit to admit I gave up on Johneshwy Fargas. I also have to admit I don't know for sure if Fargas is still in the Giants organization. 2018 was his 6'th pro season and I think that qualifies him for minor league free agency. He's still listed on the SJ roster, so I'm running with it. Third time in San Jose was a charm for Johneshwy(I think we've settled on Jon-esh-wee as the pronunciation of his name) and he posted the best statistical season of his pro career. Now, if he can just not do a faceplant in Richmond, we can start dreaming about a leadoff hitter who gets on base at a .350 clip and steals 60 bases.
Wednesday, January 30, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #36 Carlos Sano
Carlos Sano, RHP. DOB: 2/24/1993. 6'4", 205 lbs. International Free Agent 2017.
2018 A+: 5-5, 3.81, 87.1 IP, 8.76 K/9, 3.71 BB/9, 0.52 GB/FB.
Carlos Sano is the Mystery Man. He just showed up out of nowhere at age 25. He is from the Dominican Republic where most ballplayers sign pro contracts at age 16 or 17. I have looked far and wide and can find no evidence of Carlos Sano playing anywhere before he showed up in Augusta in May, 2018. What was he doing for those 8 or 9 years? Why had nobody signed him in all that time? After 2 Appearances and 5 IP for Augusta he was promoted to San Jose where he pitched very well. You don't do that without experience at a fairly high level of play.
Whoever and whatever he is, Sano is an intriguing prospect. He's got terrific size(from video footage, he obviously weighs significantly more than 205 lbs) with fast, loose arm motion. His FB goes mid 90's with a solid slider and a firm changeup. He should move up to AA for 2019 which is a much more pitching-friendly environment than the Cal League. He's got a major league body with major league stuff. Most likely projects as a multi-inning reliever in the mold of Yusmeiro Petit with a bit more velocity
2018 A+: 5-5, 3.81, 87.1 IP, 8.76 K/9, 3.71 BB/9, 0.52 GB/FB.
Carlos Sano is the Mystery Man. He just showed up out of nowhere at age 25. He is from the Dominican Republic where most ballplayers sign pro contracts at age 16 or 17. I have looked far and wide and can find no evidence of Carlos Sano playing anywhere before he showed up in Augusta in May, 2018. What was he doing for those 8 or 9 years? Why had nobody signed him in all that time? After 2 Appearances and 5 IP for Augusta he was promoted to San Jose where he pitched very well. You don't do that without experience at a fairly high level of play.
Whoever and whatever he is, Sano is an intriguing prospect. He's got terrific size(from video footage, he obviously weighs significantly more than 205 lbs) with fast, loose arm motion. His FB goes mid 90's with a solid slider and a firm changeup. He should move up to AA for 2019 which is a much more pitching-friendly environment than the Cal League. He's got a major league body with major league stuff. Most likely projects as a multi-inning reliever in the mold of Yusmeiro Petit with a bit more velocity
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #35 Patrick Ruotolo
Patrick Ruotolo, RHP. DOB: 1/16/1995. 5'10", 220 lbs. Drafted 2016 Round 27.
2018 A+: 3-0, 1.47, 18.1 IP, 12.76 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 6 Saves.
2018 AA: 1-1, 2.42, 26 IP, 12.46 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 4 Saves.
Patrick Ruotolo is on the Closer fast track to the majors. So far, he has dominated every level he has pitched at. Some sites list Ruotolo at 240 lbs. He is a short, chunky Righty who just rares back and brings it over-the-top. The FB runs 92-94 MPH but batters have trouble picking it up. Some of his teammates call it his "invisi-ball". He backs that up with a 12-6 breaking ball that looks like it is probably a spike or knuckle curve. He is working on a change up and makes it a point to throw it at least once per outing. He should start 2019 in either AA Richmond or AAA Sacramento. Ruotolo has not gotten a lot of attention from people who make prospect lists, but if he continues to dominate the way he has, it wouldn't be shocking to see him in San Francisco by the end of the season.
2018 A+: 3-0, 1.47, 18.1 IP, 12.76 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 6 Saves.
2018 AA: 1-1, 2.42, 26 IP, 12.46 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 4 Saves.
Patrick Ruotolo is on the Closer fast track to the majors. So far, he has dominated every level he has pitched at. Some sites list Ruotolo at 240 lbs. He is a short, chunky Righty who just rares back and brings it over-the-top. The FB runs 92-94 MPH but batters have trouble picking it up. Some of his teammates call it his "invisi-ball". He backs that up with a 12-6 breaking ball that looks like it is probably a spike or knuckle curve. He is working on a change up and makes it a point to throw it at least once per outing. He should start 2019 in either AA Richmond or AAA Sacramento. Ruotolo has not gotten a lot of attention from people who make prospect lists, but if he continues to dominate the way he has, it wouldn't be shocking to see him in San Francisco by the end of the season.
Monday, January 28, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #34 Sam Wolff
Sam Wolff, RHP. DOB: 4/14/1991. 6'1", 204 lbs. Drafted 2013 Round 6(Rangers).
2018 AA: 1-2, 6.91, 27.1 IP, 12.51 K/9, 5.27 BB/9, 2.89 FIP, 3.68 xFIP.
2018 AFL: 1-0, 0.00, 10 IP, 12.60 K/9, 1.80 BB/9.
The Giants acquired Sam Wolff when they traded Matt Moore to the Rangers last offseason. Wolff was known to be injured(Flexor Tendon surgery) and not expected to return before midseason 2018. His calling card is a mid-high 90's FB with rumors of triple digits. He got roughed up a bit in EL but may have run into some bad luck in a small sample size as his FIP and XFIP were much better than his ERA. Things went much better in the AFL where he pitched 10 shutout innings. He has a non-roster invitation to spring training. I would project that he starts the season in AAA with potential for a midseason callup if things go well and if the need arises at the MLB level.
2018 AA: 1-2, 6.91, 27.1 IP, 12.51 K/9, 5.27 BB/9, 2.89 FIP, 3.68 xFIP.
2018 AFL: 1-0, 0.00, 10 IP, 12.60 K/9, 1.80 BB/9.
The Giants acquired Sam Wolff when they traded Matt Moore to the Rangers last offseason. Wolff was known to be injured(Flexor Tendon surgery) and not expected to return before midseason 2018. His calling card is a mid-high 90's FB with rumors of triple digits. He got roughed up a bit in EL but may have run into some bad luck in a small sample size as his FIP and XFIP were much better than his ERA. Things went much better in the AFL where he pitched 10 shutout innings. He has a non-roster invitation to spring training. I would project that he starts the season in AAA with potential for a midseason callup if things go well and if the need arises at the MLB level.
RIP Peter Magowan
Sad to hear of the passing of Peter Magowan, the man who saved the Giants, at least for the city of San Francisco. It's amazing to me that people born after, oh, about 1985 or so which includes my 2 adult daughters, are blissfully unaware that once upon a time one of the richest, most stable franchises in Major League Baseball came this close to moving to St. Petersburg FL which would have been essentially the same as shipping them off to oblivion. I mean, make no mistake. If that happened, I would probably be Dodgers or more likely an Angels or Padres fan today. Yuck!
Fortunately, MLB had the sense to block the sale of the Giants to the Florida group and that's when Peter Magowan put together a group of very wealthy investors committed to keeping them in San Francisco. Magowan was a visionary who negotiated a then-record contract with free agent Barry Bonds and put the franchise on his back. Unlike many players who sign big, longterm free agent contracts, Barry performed up to every penny he was paid and way more. If you want to see an amazing stat line, go look up Barry Bonds from 1993, his first season in San Francisco, and he basically did that every single year for the next 12 seasons.
Back to Peter Magowan. Magowan also had a vision for bringing the Giants to downtown San Francisco and for privately financing the stadium, both ideas that were way ahead of their time. In the process, he built what might be the most perfect ballpark in baseball. PacBell/AT&T/Oracle Park is cozy yet spacious, classic yet quirky. It has one of the great views from almost any angle in all of sports. On top of all that, it's been wildly successful financially. Whatever you think of the current state of the Giants, make no mistake. They are in great shape for the foreseeable future. Peter Magowan deserves the biggest share of the credit for that.
What's interesting about Peter Magowan is while he was a visionary who took risks and made big investments, he also had a penurious side and insisted the Giants adhere to strict budgets. You have to wonder whether the Giants would have been quite so generous with their longterm contracts, even for their "homegrown" players, if Peter Magowan was still been running the team.
So, RIP Peter Magowan. I believe there should be a plaque in Cooperstown, NY with your name on it. Peter Magowan should go down in history as one of the greatest owners in MLB history.
Fortunately, MLB had the sense to block the sale of the Giants to the Florida group and that's when Peter Magowan put together a group of very wealthy investors committed to keeping them in San Francisco. Magowan was a visionary who negotiated a then-record contract with free agent Barry Bonds and put the franchise on his back. Unlike many players who sign big, longterm free agent contracts, Barry performed up to every penny he was paid and way more. If you want to see an amazing stat line, go look up Barry Bonds from 1993, his first season in San Francisco, and he basically did that every single year for the next 12 seasons.
Back to Peter Magowan. Magowan also had a vision for bringing the Giants to downtown San Francisco and for privately financing the stadium, both ideas that were way ahead of their time. In the process, he built what might be the most perfect ballpark in baseball. PacBell/AT&T/Oracle Park is cozy yet spacious, classic yet quirky. It has one of the great views from almost any angle in all of sports. On top of all that, it's been wildly successful financially. Whatever you think of the current state of the Giants, make no mistake. They are in great shape for the foreseeable future. Peter Magowan deserves the biggest share of the credit for that.
What's interesting about Peter Magowan is while he was a visionary who took risks and made big investments, he also had a penurious side and insisted the Giants adhere to strict budgets. You have to wonder whether the Giants would have been quite so generous with their longterm contracts, even for their "homegrown" players, if Peter Magowan was still been running the team.
So, RIP Peter Magowan. I believe there should be a plaque in Cooperstown, NY with your name on it. Peter Magowan should go down in history as one of the greatest owners in MLB history.
Sunday, January 27, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #33 Aaron Bond
Aaron Bond, OF. DOB: 2/16/1997. B-L, T-R. 6'5", 195 lbs. Drafted 2017 Round 12(JC).
2018 Low A: .205/.301/.218, 2B, 3 SB, 12.8 BB%, 30.9 K%, 94 PA.
2018 Short Season: .268/.320/.585, 6 2B, 5 3B, 14 HR, 8 SB, 7.0 BB%, 28.9 K%, 201 PA.
Aaron Bond has a lot to give a fan like me to dream on. He's tall, athletic, wiry strong with an incredibly projectable frame. As we have seen with other prospects, he struggled in his first try at full season ball in Augusta, but then caught fire after a transfer to Salem-Keizer and the much more hitter-friendly environment in the NWL.
Statistically, his plate discipline does not look terrible, but the strikeout rate is high, again not unusual for a young, tall prospect. My guess is he will get another chance to figure out Augusta in 2019, hopefully with better results. His ceiling is incredibly high, but also a high risk for not every getting close to it.
2018 Low A: .205/.301/.218, 2B, 3 SB, 12.8 BB%, 30.9 K%, 94 PA.
2018 Short Season: .268/.320/.585, 6 2B, 5 3B, 14 HR, 8 SB, 7.0 BB%, 28.9 K%, 201 PA.
Aaron Bond has a lot to give a fan like me to dream on. He's tall, athletic, wiry strong with an incredibly projectable frame. As we have seen with other prospects, he struggled in his first try at full season ball in Augusta, but then caught fire after a transfer to Salem-Keizer and the much more hitter-friendly environment in the NWL.
Statistically, his plate discipline does not look terrible, but the strikeout rate is high, again not unusual for a young, tall prospect. My guess is he will get another chance to figure out Augusta in 2019, hopefully with better results. His ceiling is incredibly high, but also a high risk for not every getting close to it.
Scouting the 2019 Draft: Matthew Allan
Matthew Allan, RHP, HS. DOB: 4/17/2001. 6'3", 210 lbs.
Allan is a sturdy looking RHP from the Florida HS ranks. He made a name for himself on the showcase circuit this summer by hitting 97 MPH with his FB. He also sport a promising curveball and changeup. His size and strength allow him to bring the heater without the appearance of much effort. Only negative is there doesn't appear to be much, if any, physical projection, which may not be that much of a negative since he's plenty big and strong enough now. MLB Pipeline has him ranked as their #17 draft prospect. I wouldn't put him any higher than that.
Allan is a sturdy looking RHP from the Florida HS ranks. He made a name for himself on the showcase circuit this summer by hitting 97 MPH with his FB. He also sport a promising curveball and changeup. His size and strength allow him to bring the heater without the appearance of much effort. Only negative is there doesn't appear to be much, if any, physical projection, which may not be that much of a negative since he's plenty big and strong enough now. MLB Pipeline has him ranked as their #17 draft prospect. I wouldn't put him any higher than that.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #32 Tyler Herb
Tyer Herb, RHP. DOB: 4/28/1992. 6'3", 200 lbs. Drafted 2014 Round 29(Mariners).
2018: AAA: 2-8, 5.35, 70.2 IP, 7.51 K/9, 3.57 BB/9.
After 27 AA Starts over the prior 2 seasons, Tyler Herb appeared ready to take on the very tough PCL in 2018. He got off to a rough start allowing 12 ER in 19.1 IP over 4 Starts. He went on the DL for 2 months, made 4 rehab appearances for one of the AZL Giants teams then back to Sacramento. He got roughed up in his first start back in AAA allowing 6 ER in 5 IP, in El Paso. He had another disaster start on 8/23 in Fresno allowing 9 ER in 4 IP. His other 7 Starts after returning to AAA actually went pretty well with an ERA of 3.20 over 42.1 IP. The big concern for me is the dramatic drop in GB/FB which has always been around 2.00 down to just 1.02 in 2018.
Herb was not protected in the Rule 5 draft but also not selected. He is likely to start the season in AAA where he will try to stay healthy and resurrect his sinker. He'll be SP depth for the Giants in 2019.
2018: AAA: 2-8, 5.35, 70.2 IP, 7.51 K/9, 3.57 BB/9.
After 27 AA Starts over the prior 2 seasons, Tyler Herb appeared ready to take on the very tough PCL in 2018. He got off to a rough start allowing 12 ER in 19.1 IP over 4 Starts. He went on the DL for 2 months, made 4 rehab appearances for one of the AZL Giants teams then back to Sacramento. He got roughed up in his first start back in AAA allowing 6 ER in 5 IP, in El Paso. He had another disaster start on 8/23 in Fresno allowing 9 ER in 4 IP. His other 7 Starts after returning to AAA actually went pretty well with an ERA of 3.20 over 42.1 IP. The big concern for me is the dramatic drop in GB/FB which has always been around 2.00 down to just 1.02 in 2018.
Herb was not protected in the Rule 5 draft but also not selected. He is likely to start the season in AAA where he will try to stay healthy and resurrect his sinker. He'll be SP depth for the Giants in 2019.
Saturday, January 26, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #31 Jacob Heyward
Jacob Heyward, OF. DOB: 8/1/1995. B-R, T-R. 6'3", 215 lbs. Drafted 2016 Round 18.
2018 A+: .258/.357/.415, 26 2B, 12 HR, 12.8 BB%, 21.8 K%, 0.98 GB/FB, 477 PA.
Jacob Heyward is Jason Heyward's li'l bro. He's always had really strong walk rates with some power and speed, but his overall production has been a bit on the underachieving side. He seemed to find some traction in the second half of last season with slash lines of .289/.369/.489 in July and .275/.379/.500 in August with 7 of his 12 dingers and 13 of his 26 doubles over those last 2 months. He got a 2 game cameo promotion to AAA in September. His likely assignment for 2019 is AA Richmond which will be a challenge. He's got some tools, has strong plate discipline and gets the ball in the air. That should work in his favor and also get the attention of GM Farhan Zaidi.
2018 A+: .258/.357/.415, 26 2B, 12 HR, 12.8 BB%, 21.8 K%, 0.98 GB/FB, 477 PA.
Jacob Heyward is Jason Heyward's li'l bro. He's always had really strong walk rates with some power and speed, but his overall production has been a bit on the underachieving side. He seemed to find some traction in the second half of last season with slash lines of .289/.369/.489 in July and .275/.379/.500 in August with 7 of his 12 dingers and 13 of his 26 doubles over those last 2 months. He got a 2 game cameo promotion to AAA in September. His likely assignment for 2019 is AA Richmond which will be a challenge. He's got some tools, has strong plate discipline and gets the ball in the air. That should work in his favor and also get the attention of GM Farhan Zaidi.
Fantasy Focus: Impact Rookies- Danny Jansen
Danny Jansen, C, Blue Jays. DOB: 4/15/1995. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Drafted 2013 Round 16.
2018 AAA: .275/.390/.473, 21 2B, 12 HR, 5 SB, 12.2 BB%, 13.6 K%, 0.81 GB/FB, 360 PA.
2018 MLB: .247/.347/.432, 6 2B, 3 HR, 9.5 BB%, 17.9 K%, 0.68 GB/FB, 95 PA.
By trading Russell Martin to the Dodgers, the Blue Jays handed the keys to their starting C job over to Danny Jansen who made an impression in a short MLB debut last year. Jansen has put up solid offensive numbers through the minors and even better K and BB ratios. He gets the ball in the air. He's almost a lock for about 15 dingers with 20 being easily within reach. The pitch framing era has made the catching position a fantasy wasteland and Jansen is a rare bright spot. Target him late. He'll give you solid numbers with the possibility of a lot more.
2018 AAA: .275/.390/.473, 21 2B, 12 HR, 5 SB, 12.2 BB%, 13.6 K%, 0.81 GB/FB, 360 PA.
2018 MLB: .247/.347/.432, 6 2B, 3 HR, 9.5 BB%, 17.9 K%, 0.68 GB/FB, 95 PA.
By trading Russell Martin to the Dodgers, the Blue Jays handed the keys to their starting C job over to Danny Jansen who made an impression in a short MLB debut last year. Jansen has put up solid offensive numbers through the minors and even better K and BB ratios. He gets the ball in the air. He's almost a lock for about 15 dingers with 20 being easily within reach. The pitch framing era has made the catching position a fantasy wasteland and Jansen is a rare bright spot. Target him late. He'll give you solid numbers with the possibility of a lot more.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #30 Abiatal Avelino
Abiatal Avelino SS/2B. DOB: 2/14/1995. B-R, T-R. International Free Agent 2011(Yankees).
2018 AA(Yankees): .337/.392/.553, 7 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 15 SB, 8.5 BB%, 17.5 K%, 211 PA.
2018 AAA(Yankees): .252/.291/.372, 6 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 10 SB, 4.8 BB%, 21.0 K%, 290 PA.
2018 AAA(Giants): .154/.154/.154, 13 PA.
2018 MLB(Giants): .273/.273/.273, 11 PA.
The reason Avelino is in the top 50 is 1. He is eligible and on the 40 man roster and 2. He can legitimately play SS which gives him a leg up in competition for a utility IF role. Don't expect much from the bat.
*********************************************************************************
Mike Gerber was #31, but he's been DFA'd. I just moved everyone behind him up one notch and added Yorlis Rodriguez at #50.
2018 AA(Yankees): .337/.392/.553, 7 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 15 SB, 8.5 BB%, 17.5 K%, 211 PA.
2018 AAA(Yankees): .252/.291/.372, 6 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 10 SB, 4.8 BB%, 21.0 K%, 290 PA.
2018 AAA(Giants): .154/.154/.154, 13 PA.
2018 MLB(Giants): .273/.273/.273, 11 PA.
The reason Avelino is in the top 50 is 1. He is eligible and on the 40 man roster and 2. He can legitimately play SS which gives him a leg up in competition for a utility IF role. Don't expect much from the bat.
*********************************************************************************
Mike Gerber was #31, but he's been DFA'd. I just moved everyone behind him up one notch and added Yorlis Rodriguez at #50.
Friday, January 25, 2019
Spring Training Preview: Non-Roster Invitations
The 2 biggest name and likely dollar free agents are still on the market, but spring training invitations have gone out and been announced. The Giants invited 18 non-roster players to camp headed by last years #2 overall draft pick, Joey Bart. It isn't unusual for teams to invite their previous year's first round draft pick to camp, especially if they are out of a major college program. It also probably doesn't hurt that Bart is a catcher and catchers are needed early in camp for bullpen sessions. Other highly ranked Giants prospects getting invitations include RHP Shaun Anderson(DrB's #7), LHP Garrett Williams(DrB's #13) and SS Ryan Howard(DrB's #10), LHP Conner Menez(DrB's HM) and RHP Sam Wolff(DrB's #35). All of these players have or will receive profiles in DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects series so I won't be repetitive here.
The Giants signed several minor league free agents over the winter, several of whom may have a serious shot at making the Opening Day roster:
Jamie Callahan, RHP. DOB: 8/24/1994. 6'2", 230 lbs. Drafted 2012, Round 2 #87 overall(Red Sox).
2018 AAA(Mets): 0-1, 9.72 ERA, 8.1 IP, 9.72 K/9, 4.32 BB/9. Callahan battled a shoulder injury last year and was released by the Mets early in the offseason, but before that was deemed to be ready for a big league trial by multiple analysts. When healthy, he's a hard thrower with a FB in the mid-90's. A straight over-the-top delivery gives him a big downward plane.
Enderson Franco, RHP. DOB: 12/29/1992. 6'2", 180 lbs.
2018 AA(Braves): 6-9, 3.95, 127.2 IP, 9.16 K/9, 2.96 BB/9. Franco has kicked around with several different organizations since 2010. He was once a minor league phase Rule 5 draftee. He put it all together at AA level in 2018 with solid numbers across the board. He apparently works his mid-90's heater up in the zone. He has a strong flyball tendency but has consistently kept the ball in the park and maintained a remarkable pop-up rate of at least 18%.
Kieran Lovegrove, RHP. DOB: 7/28/1994. 6'4", 185 lbs. Drafted 2012 Round 3, #110 overall(Indians).
2018(3 levels, Indians): 4-0, 2.73, 59.1 IP, 66 K, 31 BB. Hard throwing righty who has touched triple digits with his FB. Has battled control issues.
Carlos Navas, RHP. DOB: 8/13/1992. 6'1", 170 lbs.
2018 AA(Reds): 4-3, 3.19, 73.1 IP, 10.92 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, 4 Saves. Zaidi knows him from the A's, Navas' original organization. Scouting reports I could find say he's not a hard thrower but a fierce competitor who challenges hitters and has found success out of the bullpen.
Keyvius Sampson, RHP. DOB: 1/6/1991. 6'2", 225 lbs. Drafted 2009, Round 4(Padres)
Sampson was once a highly touted prospect for the Padres but control issues derailed his career. He returns after a 2-year stint in Korea. Maybe he has learned to control the strike zone there?
Hamlet Marte, C. DOB: 2/3/1994. B-R, T-R. 5'10", 180 lbs.
2018 A+(Dodgers): .272/.347/.486, 15 2B, 12 HR, 10.0 BB%, 23.0 K%. Rattled around the lower levels of the Rockies system for 7 seasons. Longshot for a MLB job out of spring training but could land as high as AAA to start the season. Zaidi knows him from a 1 season stint in the Dodgers organization last year.
Cameron Rupp, C. DOB: 9/28/1988. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 260 lbs. Drafted 2010, Round 3(Phillies)
Veteran catcher with MLB experience whose career fell on hard times. Has some pop in his bat.
Zach Green, 1B/3B. DOB: 3/7/1994. B-R, T-R. 6'3", 210 lbs. Drafted 2012, Round 3(Phillies).
2018 AA(Phillies): .296/.375/.578, 23 2B, 17 HR, 9.0 BB%, 25.6 K%, 312 PA.
2018 AAA(Phillies): .248/.312/.432, 12 2B, 3 HR, 7.2 BB%, 35.5 K%, 138 PA. Power corner IF guy who has enough arm to play 3B. Strikeouts have been his Achilles Heel. Likely starts season in AAA.
Levi Michael, 2B. DOB: 2/9/1991. B-R, T-R. Drafted 2011 Round 1(Twins).
2018 AA(Mets): .305/.391/.470, 30 2B, 10 HR, 13 SB, 7.8 BB%, 20.8 K%, 447 PA. Former first round draft pick fairly well known to most readers here. Last year's numbers were the best of his pro career after kind of stalling out at AA level.
Donovan Solano, 2B. DOB: 12/17/1987. B-R, T-R. 5'10", 165 lbs.
2018 AAA(Dodgers): .318/.353/.430, 21 2B, 4 HR, 4 SB, 4.7 BB%, 11.8 K%, 340 PA. MLB experience with the Marlins and Yankees(mostly Marlins) but has not played at the MLB level since 2016. 2014 was his last regular work as a major leaguer. Not much to get excited about here. Another Dodgers connection.
Anthony Garcia, OF. DOB: 1/4/1992. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 180 lbs. Drafted 2009, Round 18(Cardinals).
2018 AAA(A's): .254/.357/.479, 31 2B, 25 HR, 11.5 BB%, 18.9 K%, 0.84 GB/FB, 566 PA.
If you are looking for the next Max Muncy in this bunch, you may have found him right here. Long time minor league masher with solid K and BB ratios whose bat has been comped to none other than Paul Goldschmidt and several other very successful MLB hitters. As you might guess, defense is an issue.
Henry Ramos, OF. DOB: 4/15/1992. B-S, T-R. 6'2", 220 lbs. Drafted 2010, Round 5(Red Sox).
2018: .297/.352/.465, 22 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 8 SB, 7.9 BB%, 17.6 K%, 393 PA. Heliot Ramos' older bro. Another import from the Dodgers organization where he spent his last 2 seasons. Switch-hitter with even splits creates added versatility.
The Giants signed several minor league free agents over the winter, several of whom may have a serious shot at making the Opening Day roster:
Jamie Callahan, RHP. DOB: 8/24/1994. 6'2", 230 lbs. Drafted 2012, Round 2 #87 overall(Red Sox).
2018 AAA(Mets): 0-1, 9.72 ERA, 8.1 IP, 9.72 K/9, 4.32 BB/9. Callahan battled a shoulder injury last year and was released by the Mets early in the offseason, but before that was deemed to be ready for a big league trial by multiple analysts. When healthy, he's a hard thrower with a FB in the mid-90's. A straight over-the-top delivery gives him a big downward plane.
Enderson Franco, RHP. DOB: 12/29/1992. 6'2", 180 lbs.
2018 AA(Braves): 6-9, 3.95, 127.2 IP, 9.16 K/9, 2.96 BB/9. Franco has kicked around with several different organizations since 2010. He was once a minor league phase Rule 5 draftee. He put it all together at AA level in 2018 with solid numbers across the board. He apparently works his mid-90's heater up in the zone. He has a strong flyball tendency but has consistently kept the ball in the park and maintained a remarkable pop-up rate of at least 18%.
Kieran Lovegrove, RHP. DOB: 7/28/1994. 6'4", 185 lbs. Drafted 2012 Round 3, #110 overall(Indians).
2018(3 levels, Indians): 4-0, 2.73, 59.1 IP, 66 K, 31 BB. Hard throwing righty who has touched triple digits with his FB. Has battled control issues.
Carlos Navas, RHP. DOB: 8/13/1992. 6'1", 170 lbs.
2018 AA(Reds): 4-3, 3.19, 73.1 IP, 10.92 K/9, 1.96 BB/9, 4 Saves. Zaidi knows him from the A's, Navas' original organization. Scouting reports I could find say he's not a hard thrower but a fierce competitor who challenges hitters and has found success out of the bullpen.
Keyvius Sampson, RHP. DOB: 1/6/1991. 6'2", 225 lbs. Drafted 2009, Round 4(Padres)
Sampson was once a highly touted prospect for the Padres but control issues derailed his career. He returns after a 2-year stint in Korea. Maybe he has learned to control the strike zone there?
Hamlet Marte, C. DOB: 2/3/1994. B-R, T-R. 5'10", 180 lbs.
2018 A+(Dodgers): .272/.347/.486, 15 2B, 12 HR, 10.0 BB%, 23.0 K%. Rattled around the lower levels of the Rockies system for 7 seasons. Longshot for a MLB job out of spring training but could land as high as AAA to start the season. Zaidi knows him from a 1 season stint in the Dodgers organization last year.
Cameron Rupp, C. DOB: 9/28/1988. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 260 lbs. Drafted 2010, Round 3(Phillies)
Veteran catcher with MLB experience whose career fell on hard times. Has some pop in his bat.
Zach Green, 1B/3B. DOB: 3/7/1994. B-R, T-R. 6'3", 210 lbs. Drafted 2012, Round 3(Phillies).
2018 AA(Phillies): .296/.375/.578, 23 2B, 17 HR, 9.0 BB%, 25.6 K%, 312 PA.
2018 AAA(Phillies): .248/.312/.432, 12 2B, 3 HR, 7.2 BB%, 35.5 K%, 138 PA. Power corner IF guy who has enough arm to play 3B. Strikeouts have been his Achilles Heel. Likely starts season in AAA.
Levi Michael, 2B. DOB: 2/9/1991. B-R, T-R. Drafted 2011 Round 1(Twins).
2018 AA(Mets): .305/.391/.470, 30 2B, 10 HR, 13 SB, 7.8 BB%, 20.8 K%, 447 PA. Former first round draft pick fairly well known to most readers here. Last year's numbers were the best of his pro career after kind of stalling out at AA level.
Donovan Solano, 2B. DOB: 12/17/1987. B-R, T-R. 5'10", 165 lbs.
2018 AAA(Dodgers): .318/.353/.430, 21 2B, 4 HR, 4 SB, 4.7 BB%, 11.8 K%, 340 PA. MLB experience with the Marlins and Yankees(mostly Marlins) but has not played at the MLB level since 2016. 2014 was his last regular work as a major leaguer. Not much to get excited about here. Another Dodgers connection.
Anthony Garcia, OF. DOB: 1/4/1992. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 180 lbs. Drafted 2009, Round 18(Cardinals).
2018 AAA(A's): .254/.357/.479, 31 2B, 25 HR, 11.5 BB%, 18.9 K%, 0.84 GB/FB, 566 PA.
If you are looking for the next Max Muncy in this bunch, you may have found him right here. Long time minor league masher with solid K and BB ratios whose bat has been comped to none other than Paul Goldschmidt and several other very successful MLB hitters. As you might guess, defense is an issue.
Henry Ramos, OF. DOB: 4/15/1992. B-S, T-R. 6'2", 220 lbs. Drafted 2010, Round 5(Red Sox).
2018: .297/.352/.465, 22 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 8 SB, 7.9 BB%, 17.6 K%, 393 PA. Heliot Ramos' older bro. Another import from the Dodgers organization where he spent his last 2 seasons. Switch-hitter with even splits creates added versatility.
Scouting the 2019 Draft: Nick Lodolo
Nick Lodolo, LHP, College(TCU). DOB: 2/5/1998. 6'6", 180 lbs.
2018 College: 7-4, 4.32, 77 IP, 10.87 K/9, 3.27 BB/9.
The Pirates drafted Nick Lodolo out of HS in 2016 in the Supplemental First Round. He passed up a $1.75 bonus offer to go to college. He immediately became a weekend starter for the Horned Frogs with decent results. His K rate improved his sophomore campaign but ERA remained the same. He is set up nicely to take a big step forward his junior year.
Lodolo is a tall and thin but with a frame that should fill out and gain strength. He has a rapid tempo windup and delivery with whippy arm action. The FB sits 92-94 MPH and has reached 97. His best secondary pitch is a changeup that has some tail to it. The curveball tends to flatten out.
I like Lodolo quite a bit better than Graeme Stinson or Zach Thompson from the college pitching ranks because of his projectability. I also probably like him a bit better than Brennan Malone or Daniel Espino from the HS ranks due to the development he's gotta in college without sacrificing upside. That would put him just outside the current top 10 on my draft board.
2018 College: 7-4, 4.32, 77 IP, 10.87 K/9, 3.27 BB/9.
The Pirates drafted Nick Lodolo out of HS in 2016 in the Supplemental First Round. He passed up a $1.75 bonus offer to go to college. He immediately became a weekend starter for the Horned Frogs with decent results. His K rate improved his sophomore campaign but ERA remained the same. He is set up nicely to take a big step forward his junior year.
Lodolo is a tall and thin but with a frame that should fill out and gain strength. He has a rapid tempo windup and delivery with whippy arm action. The FB sits 92-94 MPH and has reached 97. His best secondary pitch is a changeup that has some tail to it. The curveball tends to flatten out.
I like Lodolo quite a bit better than Graeme Stinson or Zach Thompson from the college pitching ranks because of his projectability. I also probably like him a bit better than Brennan Malone or Daniel Espino from the HS ranks due to the development he's gotta in college without sacrificing upside. That would put him just outside the current top 10 on my draft board.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #29 Tyler Beede
Tyler Beede, RHP. DOB: 5/23/1993. 6'3", 210 lbs. Drafted 2014 Round 1, #14 overall.
2018 AAA: 4-9, 7.05, 74 IP, 9.12 K/9, 6.81 BB/9.
2018 MLB: 0-1, 8.22, 7.2 IP, 10.57 K/9, 9.39 BB/9.
I really had no idea where to rank Tyler Beede after last year's disastrous performance or whether I should rank him at all! I decided to slot him here at #29 because there seemed to be a tier break. After mulling his situation for several months I have settled on a theory as to why his career went off the rails so badly and how he might get it back on. I have seen Tyler Beede pitch twice in person, once for San Jose in 2015 just before his promotion to AA and in SJ's season opener in 2018 when he was reassigned at the last minute to avoid a potential rainout of Sacramento's opener. I also watched him pitch on TV in his MLB debut. Here is my theory in a nutshell: The kid just has too many pitches!
Young Beedah came out of college with a classic 3-pitch arsenal: 4 Seam FB, Curveball and changeup. The FB was low-mid 90's and the curveball and changeup were both considered plus pitches. The concern was with his command. After pitching a few innings in rookie and short season ball after the draft, the Giants placed him in A+ San Jose for his first full pro season, an aggressive placement, but expected for a first round draft pick coming out of a major college program. Here's where things got a bit strange. For the first several starts for San Jose, the Giants asked him to exclusively throw 2 new pitches, a 2-seam FB and a cutter. Reports at the time indicated that once he mastered those 2 pitches, they would allow him to add in is previous repertoire.
I saw his 9'th start of the 2015 season. I believe I saw all 5 of his pitches in that game and he was dominant with 11 K's and 1 BB in 7 IP. That would be the best start of his pro career by a fair margin. His next start was in AA and it looked like he might be in the majors by midseason of 2016. That was not to be. Although he has had some decent stretches the command and stuff are erratic with maddeningly inconsistent results. In his Opening Day start for San Jose last season, he seemed to have the same pitch mix. Although he threw some good looking pitches, it was hard to see them fitting into any game plan and many were kind of flat, not crisp. Same thing in is MLB debut which did not go well. Although his K numbers for the Giants look good, it seemed like he did not have any reliable putaway pitch.
The current hot trend in pitching analytics is to eliminate less effective pitches and pare down pitching repertoires to each pitcher's best 2-3 for SP's and 1-2 for RP's. Don't give hitter's breaks by offering them more hittable pitches? The other hot trend is to get away from 2-seamer's and sinkers which tend to groove right into the new uppercut launch angles and go above the bat with 4-seamers up in the zone. So, here is DrB's Rx for Tyler Beede: Figure out your 3 best pitches(likely the original 4-seam, curve and change) and junk the other two. He might need to throw the curve and change more often(another hot trend).
I don't know if Tyler Beede's pro career is salvageable at this point, but I think that is his best shot. He obviously cannot be counted on for any contribution at the MLB level in 2019.
2018 AAA: 4-9, 7.05, 74 IP, 9.12 K/9, 6.81 BB/9.
2018 MLB: 0-1, 8.22, 7.2 IP, 10.57 K/9, 9.39 BB/9.
I really had no idea where to rank Tyler Beede after last year's disastrous performance or whether I should rank him at all! I decided to slot him here at #29 because there seemed to be a tier break. After mulling his situation for several months I have settled on a theory as to why his career went off the rails so badly and how he might get it back on. I have seen Tyler Beede pitch twice in person, once for San Jose in 2015 just before his promotion to AA and in SJ's season opener in 2018 when he was reassigned at the last minute to avoid a potential rainout of Sacramento's opener. I also watched him pitch on TV in his MLB debut. Here is my theory in a nutshell: The kid just has too many pitches!
Young Beedah came out of college with a classic 3-pitch arsenal: 4 Seam FB, Curveball and changeup. The FB was low-mid 90's and the curveball and changeup were both considered plus pitches. The concern was with his command. After pitching a few innings in rookie and short season ball after the draft, the Giants placed him in A+ San Jose for his first full pro season, an aggressive placement, but expected for a first round draft pick coming out of a major college program. Here's where things got a bit strange. For the first several starts for San Jose, the Giants asked him to exclusively throw 2 new pitches, a 2-seam FB and a cutter. Reports at the time indicated that once he mastered those 2 pitches, they would allow him to add in is previous repertoire.
I saw his 9'th start of the 2015 season. I believe I saw all 5 of his pitches in that game and he was dominant with 11 K's and 1 BB in 7 IP. That would be the best start of his pro career by a fair margin. His next start was in AA and it looked like he might be in the majors by midseason of 2016. That was not to be. Although he has had some decent stretches the command and stuff are erratic with maddeningly inconsistent results. In his Opening Day start for San Jose last season, he seemed to have the same pitch mix. Although he threw some good looking pitches, it was hard to see them fitting into any game plan and many were kind of flat, not crisp. Same thing in is MLB debut which did not go well. Although his K numbers for the Giants look good, it seemed like he did not have any reliable putaway pitch.
The current hot trend in pitching analytics is to eliminate less effective pitches and pare down pitching repertoires to each pitcher's best 2-3 for SP's and 1-2 for RP's. Don't give hitter's breaks by offering them more hittable pitches? The other hot trend is to get away from 2-seamer's and sinkers which tend to groove right into the new uppercut launch angles and go above the bat with 4-seamers up in the zone. So, here is DrB's Rx for Tyler Beede: Figure out your 3 best pitches(likely the original 4-seam, curve and change) and junk the other two. He might need to throw the curve and change more often(another hot trend).
I don't know if Tyler Beede's pro career is salvageable at this point, but I think that is his best shot. He obviously cannot be counted on for any contribution at the MLB level in 2019.
Thursday, January 24, 2019
Hot Stove Update: Dodgers Sign AJ Pollock
The Dodgers today agreed to terms with OF AJ Pollock on a 4 yr/$55 M contract with a $10 M player option and $5 M buyout for a 5'th season. Pollock can also opt out after 3 years if he meets certain vesting thresholds for Plate Appearances. After shipping out Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig in a trade with the Reds, the Dodgers were looking for a RH bat who would also be in upgrade on Kemp and Puig in the OF. AJ Pollock fits that bill to a T. When healthy, Pollock is an excellent player having averaged 4.4 fWAR for every 162 MLB games he has played(compared to 5.4 for Bryce Harper). Pollock has missed significant time with injuries over the past 3 seasons, but his injuries do not seem to be the type that tend to recur or cause permanent loss of tools. When you compare Pollock's price with what Bryce Harper will probably get, and this is a very nice bargain for the Dodgers.
As you all know, I believe AJ Pollock should have been the Giants primary target this offseason for all the same reasons this was a good signing for the Dodgers. I don't know if Pollack would have signed with the Giants at any price, and I don't know what else Farhan Zaidi has up his sleeve. Just playing a little armchair GM here, Pollock is a player I would have overpaid to sign.
Scouting the 2019 Draft: Zach Thompson
Zach Thompson, LHP. DOB: 10/28/1997. 6'2", 225 lbs.
2018 College(Kentucky): 2-1, 4.94, 12.19 K/9, 5.81 BB/9.
Zach Thompson is a big-bodied lefty. He sports a solid 4-pitch mix starting with a FB that sits in the low 90's and touches 96. He missed 2 months of the 2018 college season with a "non-surgical" elbow injury. He seemed healthy pitching in the Cape Cod League and Team USA in the summer.
Thompson utilizes an extreme drop and drive delivery which looks a lot like Clayton Kershaw's. It's a sign of the weakness of this college pitching crop that Thompson is ranked near the top. If the draft were held today, I am not sure he would even make my first round, but it's also not hard to envision him having a Casey Mize type junior season and jump into the top 10 or even top 5 by draft day. Staying healthy all season is the key.
2018 College(Kentucky): 2-1, 4.94, 12.19 K/9, 5.81 BB/9.
Zach Thompson is a big-bodied lefty. He sports a solid 4-pitch mix starting with a FB that sits in the low 90's and touches 96. He missed 2 months of the 2018 college season with a "non-surgical" elbow injury. He seemed healthy pitching in the Cape Cod League and Team USA in the summer.
Thompson utilizes an extreme drop and drive delivery which looks a lot like Clayton Kershaw's. It's a sign of the weakness of this college pitching crop that Thompson is ranked near the top. If the draft were held today, I am not sure he would even make my first round, but it's also not hard to envision him having a Casey Mize type junior season and jump into the top 10 or even top 5 by draft day. Staying healthy all season is the key.
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #28 C.J. Hinojosa
C.J. Hinojosa, SS. DOB: 7/15/1994. B-R, T-R. 5'10", 175 lbs. Drafted 2015 Round 11, #336 overall.
2918 AA: .261/.327/.360, 14 2B, 3 HR, 5 SB, 8.5 BB%, 9.9 K%, 283 PA.
C.J. Hinojosa put up very similar numbers as Ryan Howard at the same level but in much fewer PA's due to a 50 game drug suspension. C.J. has now had almost 1000 PA's at AA so should be ready to move up to AAA for 2019. One possible barrier is he did not have a good AFL after going there to get more PA's after the shortened season. He has played multiple IF positions and profiles more as a utility IF than a starter.
2918 AA: .261/.327/.360, 14 2B, 3 HR, 5 SB, 8.5 BB%, 9.9 K%, 283 PA.
C.J. Hinojosa put up very similar numbers as Ryan Howard at the same level but in much fewer PA's due to a 50 game drug suspension. C.J. has now had almost 1000 PA's at AA so should be ready to move up to AAA for 2019. One possible barrier is he did not have a good AFL after going there to get more PA's after the shortened season. He has played multiple IF positions and profiles more as a utility IF than a starter.
Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Drew Pomeranz
The Giants signed LHP Drew Pomeranz to a heavily incentivized contract for 2018. He is coming off a disastrous season with the Red Sox which was plagued by arm injuries and loss of command. Before that, he had 2 excellent seasons with identical ERA's of 3.32 and 170.2 and 173.2 IP respectively for the A's and Padres in 2016 and the Red Sox in 2017. The contract calls for a base salary of $1.5 M with a whole series of esclators involving days on the roster, IP and Starts.
Despite a 6'6", 240 lb frame, Pomeranz has never been a hard thrower. His top average FB velocity was 91.5 in 2015. His best pitch has always been the curveball which doomed his tenure with the organization that drafted him #5 overall, the Rockies. It was only after he landed in a more pitcher-friendly environment, Oakland, and worked with current Giants pitching coach, Curt Young, that he found traction on his MLB career. Looking at his Pitch Type Info chart on Fangraphs, he rarely throws a changeup and his cutter usage % is is single digits. He's essentially a 2-pitch, FB/Curve pitcher and the FB is a soft tosser. Even though his contract is incentivized toward starting, I'm thinking his repertoire looks more like a lefty reliever.
This is a low cost, low risk move which could pay big dividends if Curt Young and the pitcher-friendly environment enable him to resurrect his career one more time. That will likely depend almost entirely on his health. Nice signing by Farhan Zaidi.
*********************************************************************************
I am sure there are some readers who are deeply disappointed that Mike Gerber was DFA'd to make room on the 40 man roster for Drew Pomeranz. That move leaves the Giants with just 5 OF's on the 40 man roster, Steven Duggar, Drew Ferguson, Chris Shaw, Austin Slater and Mac Williamson. Zaidi indicated that to reporters that he is still optimistic about upgrading the OF situation before the season.
Despite a 6'6", 240 lb frame, Pomeranz has never been a hard thrower. His top average FB velocity was 91.5 in 2015. His best pitch has always been the curveball which doomed his tenure with the organization that drafted him #5 overall, the Rockies. It was only after he landed in a more pitcher-friendly environment, Oakland, and worked with current Giants pitching coach, Curt Young, that he found traction on his MLB career. Looking at his Pitch Type Info chart on Fangraphs, he rarely throws a changeup and his cutter usage % is is single digits. He's essentially a 2-pitch, FB/Curve pitcher and the FB is a soft tosser. Even though his contract is incentivized toward starting, I'm thinking his repertoire looks more like a lefty reliever.
This is a low cost, low risk move which could pay big dividends if Curt Young and the pitcher-friendly environment enable him to resurrect his career one more time. That will likely depend almost entirely on his health. Nice signing by Farhan Zaidi.
*********************************************************************************
I am sure there are some readers who are deeply disappointed that Mike Gerber was DFA'd to make room on the 40 man roster for Drew Pomeranz. That move leaves the Giants with just 5 OF's on the 40 man roster, Steven Duggar, Drew Ferguson, Chris Shaw, Austin Slater and Mac Williamson. Zaidi indicated that to reporters that he is still optimistic about upgrading the OF situation before the season.
Hot Stove Update: Giants Don't Sign Nick Markakis
Pretty much everyone agrees the Giants biggest need in the Hot Stove League is an OF who is either a clear upgrade or at least a stabilizing factor. Check off another available one who won't be coming here. The Greek God of Plate Discipline, Nick Markakis, reportedly took less money and years than he was offered elsewhere to re-up with his old team, the Braves, for 1 year/$4 M with a $2 M buyout of a $6 M option for 2020. Markakis was never the ideal fit for the Giants which would be a RH batter expected to hit 30 HR's while he is a LH batter whose modest power would likely disappear in Oracle Park. He is, however, extremely durable with at least 670 PA's in his last 6 seasons and 11 out of his 13 MLB seasons. He also keeps the line moving while reliably walking over 10% of his PA's and striking out in less than 15%. He's exactly what the Braves need to hold down a position while more of their prospects mature. Meanwhile the Giants offseason drags on. Assuming they are out on Bryce Harper and AJ Pollock, at some point they are probably just as well off to hope for breakouts from the guys they have, as Alex P put it.
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #27 Jake Wong
Jake Wong, RHP. DOB: 9/3/1996. 6'2", 215 lbs. Drafted 2018 Round 3, #80 overall.
2018 College: 9-3, 2.81, 89.2 IP, 8.83 K/9, 2.91 BB/9.
2018 Short Season: 0-2, 2.30, 27 IP, 8.89 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 1.86 GB/FB.
Jake Wong's college career blossomed in his junior season at Grand Canyon University when he became a full time starter and his K rate took a jump while his walk rate improved. He works off a hard FB that sits 92-94 when starting and has touched 96 MPH. The FB sets up a variety of breaking balls with sharp downward break due to his upright overhand delivery. He also had a promising changeup which he did not use a lot of in college.
On video he has a strong muscular frame with a rock-solid lower half. Some scouts may see a lack of physical projection as a negative, but what he already has is probably good enough. The windup is a simple rock and fire, upright with a tight, fast arm circle. The ball explodes out of his hand. One video I found from 2016 showed him dominating a string of TCU hitters with fastballs on the 4 corners of the zone and and the diving breaking balls.
Wong made 11 Starts for the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes but only pitched a total of 27 innings as the Giants were conservative with their SP draftees. His numbers were promising in a hitter-friendly league with his command and groundball numbers most impressive.
He looks like he should be ready for an aggressive placement in San Jose for 2019.
2018 College: 9-3, 2.81, 89.2 IP, 8.83 K/9, 2.91 BB/9.
2018 Short Season: 0-2, 2.30, 27 IP, 8.89 K/9, 1.98 BB/9, 1.86 GB/FB.
Jake Wong's college career blossomed in his junior season at Grand Canyon University when he became a full time starter and his K rate took a jump while his walk rate improved. He works off a hard FB that sits 92-94 when starting and has touched 96 MPH. The FB sets up a variety of breaking balls with sharp downward break due to his upright overhand delivery. He also had a promising changeup which he did not use a lot of in college.
On video he has a strong muscular frame with a rock-solid lower half. Some scouts may see a lack of physical projection as a negative, but what he already has is probably good enough. The windup is a simple rock and fire, upright with a tight, fast arm circle. The ball explodes out of his hand. One video I found from 2016 showed him dominating a string of TCU hitters with fastballs on the 4 corners of the zone and and the diving breaking balls.
Wong made 11 Starts for the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes but only pitched a total of 27 innings as the Giants were conservative with their SP draftees. His numbers were promising in a hitter-friendly league with his command and groundball numbers most impressive.
He looks like he should be ready for an aggressive placement in San Jose for 2019.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #26 Seth Corry
Seth Corry, LHP. DOB: 11/3/1998. 6'2", 195 lbs. Drafted 2017 Round 3 #96 overall.
2018 R: 3-1, 2.61, 38 IP, 9.95 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 1.44 GB/FB.
2018 Short Season: 1-2, 5.49, 19.2 IP, 7.78 K/9, 6.86 BB/9, 1.30 GB/FB.
Seth Corry was the last of 3 consecutive HS prospects the Giants selected at the top of the 2017 draft. He is out of Utah with a strong, sturdy body with a raw but promising repertoire of pitches. He's run very hot and cold as a pro with dominant performances when he has command of his pitches and very high BB rates when he doesn't. There was more of that in 2018 but he seemed to have more good appearances than bad, so in that sense maybe made progress. He has a low 90's FB. His curveball is his best pitch and his changeup shows promise with fade and tumble according to Baseball Census scouting report. On video, the delivery is more "tall and fall" than drop and drive with a high 3/4 release, but on lateral views he does get good extension toward the plate.
It seems like pitcher-friendly Augusta would be a good place for him to continue putting his game together in 2019. At age 20 and with 3 more seasons before he is Rule 5 Draft eligible, he still has time on his side.
2018 R: 3-1, 2.61, 38 IP, 9.95 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 1.44 GB/FB.
2018 Short Season: 1-2, 5.49, 19.2 IP, 7.78 K/9, 6.86 BB/9, 1.30 GB/FB.
Seth Corry was the last of 3 consecutive HS prospects the Giants selected at the top of the 2017 draft. He is out of Utah with a strong, sturdy body with a raw but promising repertoire of pitches. He's run very hot and cold as a pro with dominant performances when he has command of his pitches and very high BB rates when he doesn't. There was more of that in 2018 but he seemed to have more good appearances than bad, so in that sense maybe made progress. He has a low 90's FB. His curveball is his best pitch and his changeup shows promise with fade and tumble according to Baseball Census scouting report. On video, the delivery is more "tall and fall" than drop and drive with a high 3/4 release, but on lateral views he does get good extension toward the plate.
It seems like pitcher-friendly Augusta would be a good place for him to continue putting his game together in 2019. At age 20 and with 3 more seasons before he is Rule 5 Draft eligible, he still has time on his side.
Monday, January 21, 2019
Hot Stove Update: Reds Get Sonny Gray
The Cincinnati Reds made a trade today for Sonny Gray, the RHP the Yankees announced they would be trading way back in November or before. The deal actually involves 3 teams and is quite confusing. The Yankees sent Gray and LHP Reiver Sanmartin to the Reds for 2B Shed Long and a Competitive Balance round draft pick. The Yankees immediately flipped Long to the Mariners for OF Josh Stowers who was Seattle's second round pick in the 2018 draft. Gray apparently agreed to a contract extension which will be 3 yrs/$30.5 M with a $12 M team option for 2023. There are also $500 K in incentives in the contract.
So, a lot to unpack here. Let's start with the main actor, Sonny Gray. He had a terrible season last year for the Yankees but had a dramatic home-road split and maintained his FB velocity, so he seems like a solid bounceback candidate. The Yankees had seen enough, though, and announced in the early stages of the Hot Stove season that they intended to trade him. Both the A's and Giants seemed like logical destinations as they could both use additional SP and both play in pitcher-friendly ballparks. Gray used to play for the A's and Farhan Zaidi used to be their Assistant GM. Giants Pitching Coach Curt Young had the same position with the A's when Gray was on Oakland. The Reds apparently wanted him more and gave up their MLB Pipeline #7 prospect, Long, and the CB draft pick which I am sure was too rich for Zaidi to top.
Then there is the extension. I honestly cannot imagine why the Reds would insist on a contract extension for a pitcher who was so bad last year, but it sure sounded like they would not have made the deal if Gray did not agree to the extension. For Gray, $30.5 M is a lot of money and gives him financial security, but a strong bounceback season might have set him up for a much bigger payday next year. The Reds could make out OK on this deal, but there is a ton of risk in it and you really have to wonder how Gray will fare pitching half his games in Great American Ballpark, not exactly Oracle Park East.
Let's take a look at the prospects in the trade:
Shed Long 2B. DOB: 8/22/1995. B-L, T-R. 5'8", 184 lbs.
2018 AA: .261/.353/.412, 12 HR, 19 SB, 10.9 BB%, 23.6 K%. Solid hitter but reportedly not a stellar defender.
Reiver Sanmartin LHP. DOB: 4/15/1996. 6'2", 160 lbs.
2018(4 levels): 5-7, 2.81, 67.1 IP, 4 BB, 58 K's, GO/AO= 1.67. Sanmartin pitched 5 innings at AA, his highest level so far. He's an extreme control artist with a strong groundball rate.
Josh Stowers OF. DOB: 2/25/1997. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 200 lbs.
2018 Short Season: .260/.380/.410, 15 2B, 5 HR, 20 SB, 15.2 BB%, 23.4 K%, 244 PA. Athletic OF who can play CF.
Gotta say, the Yanks come out of this smelling like a rose(don't they always?) while the Reds got what they wanted, but maybe shouldn't have. As usual, I am mystified why Jerry DiPoto got involved except that's what he does.
As has been the case all Hot Stove season, the Giants stayed on the sidelines.
So, a lot to unpack here. Let's start with the main actor, Sonny Gray. He had a terrible season last year for the Yankees but had a dramatic home-road split and maintained his FB velocity, so he seems like a solid bounceback candidate. The Yankees had seen enough, though, and announced in the early stages of the Hot Stove season that they intended to trade him. Both the A's and Giants seemed like logical destinations as they could both use additional SP and both play in pitcher-friendly ballparks. Gray used to play for the A's and Farhan Zaidi used to be their Assistant GM. Giants Pitching Coach Curt Young had the same position with the A's when Gray was on Oakland. The Reds apparently wanted him more and gave up their MLB Pipeline #7 prospect, Long, and the CB draft pick which I am sure was too rich for Zaidi to top.
Then there is the extension. I honestly cannot imagine why the Reds would insist on a contract extension for a pitcher who was so bad last year, but it sure sounded like they would not have made the deal if Gray did not agree to the extension. For Gray, $30.5 M is a lot of money and gives him financial security, but a strong bounceback season might have set him up for a much bigger payday next year. The Reds could make out OK on this deal, but there is a ton of risk in it and you really have to wonder how Gray will fare pitching half his games in Great American Ballpark, not exactly Oracle Park East.
Let's take a look at the prospects in the trade:
Shed Long 2B. DOB: 8/22/1995. B-L, T-R. 5'8", 184 lbs.
2018 AA: .261/.353/.412, 12 HR, 19 SB, 10.9 BB%, 23.6 K%. Solid hitter but reportedly not a stellar defender.
Reiver Sanmartin LHP. DOB: 4/15/1996. 6'2", 160 lbs.
2018(4 levels): 5-7, 2.81, 67.1 IP, 4 BB, 58 K's, GO/AO= 1.67. Sanmartin pitched 5 innings at AA, his highest level so far. He's an extreme control artist with a strong groundball rate.
Josh Stowers OF. DOB: 2/25/1997. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 200 lbs.
2018 Short Season: .260/.380/.410, 15 2B, 5 HR, 20 SB, 15.2 BB%, 23.4 K%, 244 PA. Athletic OF who can play CF.
Gotta say, the Yanks come out of this smelling like a rose(don't they always?) while the Reds got what they wanted, but maybe shouldn't have. As usual, I am mystified why Jerry DiPoto got involved except that's what he does.
As has been the case all Hot Stove season, the Giants stayed on the sidelines.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #25 Camilo Doval
Camilo Doval RHP. DOB: 7/4/1997. 6'2", 185 lbs. International Free Agent 2015.
2018 Low A: 0-3, 3.06, 53 IP, 13.25 K/9, 4.58 BB/9, 11 Saves.
Camilo Doval's first 3 appearances of 2019 were disastrous as he allowed a total of 11 R, 8 ER and 8 BB's in just 1.1 IP. Take out those first 3 games and his ERA the rest of the way was 1.74 and his BB/9 was 3.31. He eventually took over the Closer role. So Doval actually had a much better season statistically for Augusta in 2019 than his overall pitching line would indicate. What's even more exciting is he is one of 3 pitchers in the Giants organization to record at least 1 pitch in triple digits in 2019. On video Doval has a compact, athletic frame with a simple windup that has just a tad of Tim Lincecum in it with a hip turn generating torque from this torso. He has long arm extension in back reminiscent of Madison Bumgarner, then unleashes a very low 3/4, almost sidearm delivery. His pitches are FB, slider, cutter with the cutter grading out highest by Fangraphs scouting report. I suppose as long has he remains on the Closer track, that repertoire is all he needs.
He should move up to San Jose in 2019 where I can't wait to see him pitch in person. Again, from the Closer track he could be a really fast mover in the system, but by my calculations has 2 more seasons before the Giants have to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.
2018 Low A: 0-3, 3.06, 53 IP, 13.25 K/9, 4.58 BB/9, 11 Saves.
Camilo Doval's first 3 appearances of 2019 were disastrous as he allowed a total of 11 R, 8 ER and 8 BB's in just 1.1 IP. Take out those first 3 games and his ERA the rest of the way was 1.74 and his BB/9 was 3.31. He eventually took over the Closer role. So Doval actually had a much better season statistically for Augusta in 2019 than his overall pitching line would indicate. What's even more exciting is he is one of 3 pitchers in the Giants organization to record at least 1 pitch in triple digits in 2019. On video Doval has a compact, athletic frame with a simple windup that has just a tad of Tim Lincecum in it with a hip turn generating torque from this torso. He has long arm extension in back reminiscent of Madison Bumgarner, then unleashes a very low 3/4, almost sidearm delivery. His pitches are FB, slider, cutter with the cutter grading out highest by Fangraphs scouting report. I suppose as long has he remains on the Closer track, that repertoire is all he needs.
He should move up to San Jose in 2019 where I can't wait to see him pitch in person. Again, from the Closer track he could be a really fast mover in the system, but by my calculations has 2 more seasons before the Giants have to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.
Sunday, January 20, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #24 Juan De Paula
Juan De Paula, RHP. DOB: 9/22/1997. 6'3", 165 lbs. International Free Agent 2014(Mariners).
2018 Short Season(Yankees): 2-2, 1.71, 47.1 IP, 8.75 K/9, 4.94 BB/9.
2018 Low A(Giants): 0-1, 1.80, 5 IP, 16.20 K/9, 1.80 BB/9.
Juan De Paula was acquired very late in the 2018 minor league season from the Yankees in the Andrew McCutchen trade. Gotta admit, I thought of De Paula as just another random live arm right up to researching this profile. Then I got a good look at him on video. Wow! That is one of the more projectable frames I've seen! He looks like he weighs a good 15 lbs more than his listed 165. Arms and legs are long for his body, but he's got wiry strength in his upper legs and trunk. There is still plenty of room to put on another 20-30 lbs. The arm action is loose and whippy.
Scouting reports have him in the low-mid 90's with the FB with a sharp slider and slower curve to go with it. Command is an issue but he sure had a tremendous debut for the Giants in the 1 start he made under their organizational umbrella. I would think he will be assigned to Augusta where he will try to convince the Giants he's worth adding to the 40 man roster next year before the Rule 5 Draft.
2018 Short Season(Yankees): 2-2, 1.71, 47.1 IP, 8.75 K/9, 4.94 BB/9.
2018 Low A(Giants): 0-1, 1.80, 5 IP, 16.20 K/9, 1.80 BB/9.
Juan De Paula was acquired very late in the 2018 minor league season from the Yankees in the Andrew McCutchen trade. Gotta admit, I thought of De Paula as just another random live arm right up to researching this profile. Then I got a good look at him on video. Wow! That is one of the more projectable frames I've seen! He looks like he weighs a good 15 lbs more than his listed 165. Arms and legs are long for his body, but he's got wiry strength in his upper legs and trunk. There is still plenty of room to put on another 20-30 lbs. The arm action is loose and whippy.
Scouting reports have him in the low-mid 90's with the FB with a sharp slider and slower curve to go with it. Command is an issue but he sure had a tremendous debut for the Giants in the 1 start he made under their organizational umbrella. I would think he will be assigned to Augusta where he will try to convince the Giants he's worth adding to the 40 man roster next year before the Rule 5 Draft.
Saturday, January 19, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #23 Diego Rincones
Diego Rincones, OF. DOB: 6/14/1999. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 175 lbs. International Free Agent 2015.
Short Season: .315/.357/.455, 15 2B, 7 HR, 3.6 BB%, 11.6 K%, 0.78 GB/FB, 277 PA.
Diego Rincones flew under the radar for a couple of seasons while fellow Dominican Dandies Sandro Fabian and Alexander Canario got the national attention. Rincones grabbed some of that attention by raking the NWL including an epic performance in the midseason All-Star game which gained him MVP honors for the game. Detractors will point to his extremely low walk rate and defensive limitations which likely confine him to LF. Fans will point to the low K rate and strong flyball tendency which gives upside to this power.
Augusta seems like an appropriate assignment for him to begin 2019 where we'll see if the extra short season in Salem-Keizer enables him to handle the hostile hitting environment there.
Short Season: .315/.357/.455, 15 2B, 7 HR, 3.6 BB%, 11.6 K%, 0.78 GB/FB, 277 PA.
Diego Rincones flew under the radar for a couple of seasons while fellow Dominican Dandies Sandro Fabian and Alexander Canario got the national attention. Rincones grabbed some of that attention by raking the NWL including an epic performance in the midseason All-Star game which gained him MVP honors for the game. Detractors will point to his extremely low walk rate and defensive limitations which likely confine him to LF. Fans will point to the low K rate and strong flyball tendency which gives upside to this power.
Augusta seems like an appropriate assignment for him to begin 2019 where we'll see if the extra short season in Salem-Keizer enables him to handle the hostile hitting environment there.
Friday, January 18, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #22 Manuel Geraldo
Manuel Geraldo, SS. DOB: 9/23/1996. B-S, T-R. 6'1", 170 lbs. International Free Agent 2013.
2018 Low A: .294/.337/.385, 9 HR, 24 SB, 5.7 BB%, 23.0 K%, 3.95 GB/FB, 525 PA.
Third time was a charm for Manuel Geraldo in Augusta as he was finally able to complete a season there and put up better than decent numbers in the process. I've loved Geraldo as a prospect ever since he was a 17 yo rook in the DSL. I've always thought that when he grew into his frame, he could hit for some power and felt he was toolsy enough to play SS at the highest levels.
The problem for Geraldo is it took him just too dang long to grow into his frame, so after 2 seasons on the DSL and 3 tries in Augusta, he was suddenly eligible for the 2018 Rule 5 Draft. The Giants did not add him to the 40 man roster but thankfully he was not selected by another team so now has another season to prove his worth to the organization before hitting minor league free agency. The logical progression would be San Jose for 2019. He has an extreme tendency to hit the ball on the ground, but the 9 dingers and extra meat on his bones suggest he would benefit from getting the ball in the air a lot more.
2018 Low A: .294/.337/.385, 9 HR, 24 SB, 5.7 BB%, 23.0 K%, 3.95 GB/FB, 525 PA.
Third time was a charm for Manuel Geraldo in Augusta as he was finally able to complete a season there and put up better than decent numbers in the process. I've loved Geraldo as a prospect ever since he was a 17 yo rook in the DSL. I've always thought that when he grew into his frame, he could hit for some power and felt he was toolsy enough to play SS at the highest levels.
The problem for Geraldo is it took him just too dang long to grow into his frame, so after 2 seasons on the DSL and 3 tries in Augusta, he was suddenly eligible for the 2018 Rule 5 Draft. The Giants did not add him to the 40 man roster but thankfully he was not selected by another team so now has another season to prove his worth to the organization before hitting minor league free agency. The logical progression would be San Jose for 2019. He has an extreme tendency to hit the ball on the ground, but the 9 dingers and extra meat on his bones suggest he would benefit from getting the ball in the air a lot more.
Hot Tip
Hey team! It seems our friend Kyle Goings AKA Covechatter is a published author. Check out his announcement on his blog linked to the left.
Here's to a successful publication, Covechatter!
Here's to a successful publication, Covechatter!
Hot Stove Update: Reliever Market Moving. Giants Stay on Sidelines
The Yankees rounded out their Greatest Bullpen of All Time with the signing of Adam Ottavino to a 3 yr/$27 M contract. Ottavino has pitched most of his career for the Rockies with mixed success and will be moving to another extremely hitter-friendly environment. Last year was one of his best seasons running up a 2.43 ERA in 77.2 IP and a K/9 of 13.0. His BB/9's of 6.6 and 4.2 in 2017 and 2018 respectively may be a cause for concern going forward. The Giants have not been in the market for a high end reliever this Hot Stove season so this signing has very little impact on them except it takes Ottavino out of the NL West.
*********************************************************************************
The Angels signed former Indians Closer, Cody Allen, to 1 yr/$8.5 M contract with $2.5 M of additional money available depending on number of games finished. Allen is coming off a down season in which he still saved 27 games but had a high ERA of 4.70 and his average FB velocity dipped by approximately 1 MPH. He's looking to rebound for a bigger payday next season. Again, the Giants were never a factor in this market.
*********************************************************************************
Speaking of the Giants, there was a blip on their radar yesterday as the Sonny Gray rumors heated up. Gray is widely believed to be pursued by multiple teams with the Giants being brought into the discussion. Oracle Park would be a perfect place for Gray to try to get his career moving again and the Giants need to add at least 1 more veteran SP, so this rumor could have legs. I think Gray is a great bounceback candidate, but there's enough risk here that I would not want to see the Giants give up much. Gray recently agreed to a $7.5 M contract to avoid arbitration.
*********************************************************************************
The Angels signed former Indians Closer, Cody Allen, to 1 yr/$8.5 M contract with $2.5 M of additional money available depending on number of games finished. Allen is coming off a down season in which he still saved 27 games but had a high ERA of 4.70 and his average FB velocity dipped by approximately 1 MPH. He's looking to rebound for a bigger payday next season. Again, the Giants were never a factor in this market.
*********************************************************************************
Speaking of the Giants, there was a blip on their radar yesterday as the Sonny Gray rumors heated up. Gray is widely believed to be pursued by multiple teams with the Giants being brought into the discussion. Oracle Park would be a perfect place for Gray to try to get his career moving again and the Giants need to add at least 1 more veteran SP, so this rumor could have legs. I think Gray is a great bounceback candidate, but there's enough risk here that I would not want to see the Giants give up much. Gray recently agreed to a $7.5 M contract to avoid arbitration.
Thursday, January 17, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #21 Sandro Fabian
Sandro Fabian, OF. DOB: 3/6/1998. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 180 lbs. Internation Free Agent 2014.
2018 A+: .200/.260/.325, 19 2B, 3B, 10 HR, 5.8 BB%, 23.8 K%, 1.14 GB/FB, 450 PA.
After a strong finish to a rough first full season in Augusta in 2017, the Giants challenged Sandro Fabian with a promotion to A+ San Jose for 2018. Although he showed flashes of power with 10 dingers and raised his BB% from 2.0 to 5.8, the optimistic take on his season is it was a learning experience and he got in a full season's worth of work. That sets up 2019 to be a pivotal season for him whether it's at AA or a repeat of A+. I'm thinking there is no way he should be promoted to face a league historically so bad for Giants hitting prospects, so I'll vote for the Jalen Miller treatment and hope to see much better numbers on his second rodeo.
2018 A+: .200/.260/.325, 19 2B, 3B, 10 HR, 5.8 BB%, 23.8 K%, 1.14 GB/FB, 450 PA.
After a strong finish to a rough first full season in Augusta in 2017, the Giants challenged Sandro Fabian with a promotion to A+ San Jose for 2018. Although he showed flashes of power with 10 dingers and raised his BB% from 2.0 to 5.8, the optimistic take on his season is it was a learning experience and he got in a full season's worth of work. That sets up 2019 to be a pivotal season for him whether it's at AA or a repeat of A+. I'm thinking there is no way he should be promoted to face a league historically so bad for Giants hitting prospects, so I'll vote for the Jalen Miller treatment and hope to see much better numbers on his second rodeo.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #20 Jacob Gonzalez
Jacob Gonzalez, 3B. DOB: 6/26/1998. B-R, T-R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Drafted 2017 Round 2, # overall.
2018 Low A: .227/.296/.331, 20 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 7 SB, 6.1 BB%, 21.1 K%, 507 PA.
Jacob Gonzalez had a rough first full season in Augusta, no way around that. A ball is a huge jump from rookie ball. The SAL in general and Augusta in particular is a tough league for hitters, and young players drafted out of HS are often not ready for the grind of playing every day for 5 months in the heat of the summer. Jacob hit .252 for the first half, which is still not great, but given the context is nothing to be ashamed of. His numbers cratered over the last 2 months of the season. His secondary numbers, particularly his K rate are not bad for the context either. He did show some pop his the bat with the 8 dingers.
Jacob gets praise in scouting reports for his raw power, physicality, pitch selection and approach at the plate. More an open question is his hit tool and ability to stay at 3B. He has two big things going against him IMO. He was already on the old side for his draft class(over 1 full year older than Heliot Ramos) and He suddenly has all kinds of competition for playing time at 3B in the lower minors. Jacob, David Villar, Sean Roby and Yorlis Rodriguez are all going to be competing for full season 3B gigs in San Jose and Augusta. One or two of those players could get some innings at 1B and/or LF to make room at 3B. I think there is still enough upside for Jacob that the Giants should make sure they have an appropriate place to play in 2019 which promises to be a pivotal year for Jacob Gonzalez, I would say close to make or break.
2018 Low A: .227/.296/.331, 20 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 7 SB, 6.1 BB%, 21.1 K%, 507 PA.
Jacob Gonzalez had a rough first full season in Augusta, no way around that. A ball is a huge jump from rookie ball. The SAL in general and Augusta in particular is a tough league for hitters, and young players drafted out of HS are often not ready for the grind of playing every day for 5 months in the heat of the summer. Jacob hit .252 for the first half, which is still not great, but given the context is nothing to be ashamed of. His numbers cratered over the last 2 months of the season. His secondary numbers, particularly his K rate are not bad for the context either. He did show some pop his the bat with the 8 dingers.
Jacob gets praise in scouting reports for his raw power, physicality, pitch selection and approach at the plate. More an open question is his hit tool and ability to stay at 3B. He has two big things going against him IMO. He was already on the old side for his draft class(over 1 full year older than Heliot Ramos) and He suddenly has all kinds of competition for playing time at 3B in the lower minors. Jacob, David Villar, Sean Roby and Yorlis Rodriguez are all going to be competing for full season 3B gigs in San Jose and Augusta. One or two of those players could get some innings at 1B and/or LF to make room at 3B. I think there is still enough upside for Jacob that the Giants should make sure they have an appropriate place to play in 2019 which promises to be a pivotal year for Jacob Gonzalez, I would say close to make or break.
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #19 Jose Marte
Jose Marte, RHP. DOB: 6/14/1996. 6'3", 180 lbs. International Free Agent 2015.
2018 Low A: 7-7, 4.70, 118.2 IP, 8.49 K/9, 3.79 BB/9, 1.45 GB/FB, 3.99 FIP, 3.97 xFIP.
Scouting reports on Jose Marte aren't easy to find, but the ones out there have always sounded better than his performances on the field. Here is one I found on a site called Prospects1500 by Roger Munter: "Marte has electric stuff- a fastball that gets up to 97 as a starter and a slider that can really bite when it's working. Consistency and stamina are the next hurdles." Here is David Lee, a long time sports reporter from Augusta being interviewed by Roger: "Jose Marte is my guy in Augusta's rotation this year. He hit 97 pretty much every time I saw him and had the arm strength to consistently sit mid-90's in the later innings. The secondaries were behind the fastball and his command page because he is raw, but there's plenty to like her and he's one to watch going forward, even if it's just as a velo guy in the bullpen."
I found one video posted on Youtube by David Lee. Marte is a lot bigger than 180 lbs with big strong legs that let him drive off the rubber. He's got smooth, loose arm action and the ball explodes out of his hand. There is another posted by Prospects Live that looks pretty much the same. The delivery from the side looks a lot like Reyes Moronta.
Marte need to develop more consistency and bring his secondary stuff along to be a starter at higher levels. Otherwise he should make it as a reliever. He should move up to San Jose as a SP in 2019.
2018 Low A: 7-7, 4.70, 118.2 IP, 8.49 K/9, 3.79 BB/9, 1.45 GB/FB, 3.99 FIP, 3.97 xFIP.
Scouting reports on Jose Marte aren't easy to find, but the ones out there have always sounded better than his performances on the field. Here is one I found on a site called Prospects1500 by Roger Munter: "Marte has electric stuff- a fastball that gets up to 97 as a starter and a slider that can really bite when it's working. Consistency and stamina are the next hurdles." Here is David Lee, a long time sports reporter from Augusta being interviewed by Roger: "Jose Marte is my guy in Augusta's rotation this year. He hit 97 pretty much every time I saw him and had the arm strength to consistently sit mid-90's in the later innings. The secondaries were behind the fastball and his command page because he is raw, but there's plenty to like her and he's one to watch going forward, even if it's just as a velo guy in the bullpen."
I found one video posted on Youtube by David Lee. Marte is a lot bigger than 180 lbs with big strong legs that let him drive off the rubber. He's got smooth, loose arm action and the ball explodes out of his hand. There is another posted by Prospects Live that looks pretty much the same. The delivery from the side looks a lot like Reyes Moronta.
Marte need to develop more consistency and bring his secondary stuff along to be a starter at higher levels. Otherwise he should make it as a reliever. He should move up to San Jose as a SP in 2019.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #18 Sean Hjelle
Sean Hjelle, RHP. DOB: 5/7/1997. 6'11", 225 lbs. Drafted 2018 Round 2 #45 overall.
2018 College: 7-5, 3.44, 99 IP, 8.24 K/9, 1.99 BB/9.
2018 Short Season: 0-0, 5.06, 21.1 IP, 9.28 K/9, 1.69 BB/9, 1.20 GB/FB, 4.63 FIP, 3.39 xFIP.
In case you are still wondering, Sean Hjelle pronounces his last name "Jelly". He's a truly unique pitcher in that if he makes it to the major leagues, he will be the tallest MLB player in history. On top of all that, he's shown unusually strong command at an early age for any pitcher, when tall pitchers often struggle with command. It was not secret the Giants targeted him for their second pick in the 2018 draft out of Kentucky where he had a solid if unspectacular junior season. His pro debut was marred by a high ERA in the hitter-friendly NWL with a high HR/FB being the chief culprit. FIP and xFIP liked him a lot more than ERA.
His scouting report has a FB that sits in the low 90's with a sharp downward breaking knuckle curve and an average changeup which should get better with more use. His delivery is high 3/4, almost over-the-top with a tight arm circle. It's not an "iron mike" delivery but still. has strong downward plane due to his height. He still has an enormous amount of room to fill out which would seem to make him a candidate for more velocity down the road.
A+ San Jose seems like an appropriate assignment for 2019 and I can't wait to see this guy pitch in person so I'm planning to be out there if on a day he's starting in one of the SoCal ballparks. With a solid Cal League season, he could be ranked a lot higher on next year's list.
2018 College: 7-5, 3.44, 99 IP, 8.24 K/9, 1.99 BB/9.
2018 Short Season: 0-0, 5.06, 21.1 IP, 9.28 K/9, 1.69 BB/9, 1.20 GB/FB, 4.63 FIP, 3.39 xFIP.
In case you are still wondering, Sean Hjelle pronounces his last name "Jelly". He's a truly unique pitcher in that if he makes it to the major leagues, he will be the tallest MLB player in history. On top of all that, he's shown unusually strong command at an early age for any pitcher, when tall pitchers often struggle with command. It was not secret the Giants targeted him for their second pick in the 2018 draft out of Kentucky where he had a solid if unspectacular junior season. His pro debut was marred by a high ERA in the hitter-friendly NWL with a high HR/FB being the chief culprit. FIP and xFIP liked him a lot more than ERA.
His scouting report has a FB that sits in the low 90's with a sharp downward breaking knuckle curve and an average changeup which should get better with more use. His delivery is high 3/4, almost over-the-top with a tight arm circle. It's not an "iron mike" delivery but still. has strong downward plane due to his height. He still has an enormous amount of room to fill out which would seem to make him a candidate for more velocity down the road.
A+ San Jose seems like an appropriate assignment for 2019 and I can't wait to see this guy pitch in person so I'm planning to be out there if on a day he's starting in one of the SoCal ballparks. With a solid Cal League season, he could be ranked a lot higher on next year's list.
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #17 Heath Quinn
Heath Quinn, OF. DOB: 6/7/1995. B-R, T-R. 6'3", 220 lbs. Drafted 2016 Round 3, #95 overall.
2018 A+: .300/.376/.485, 24 2B, 14 HR, 10.3 BB%, 24.1 K%, 0.83 GB/FB, 407 PA.
Some of us were surprised when Heath Quinn fell to the Giants in the third round of the 2016 draft. I know I had the bat as first round quality. He likely fell due to concerns about athleticism and position. That made his injury plagued faceplant in 2017 extremely disappointing, putting him in serious bust territory. He had a nice bounceback season in 2018 getting in 400 PA's despite another early season injury. 2019 promises to be a critical year in his development as he should move up to AA Richmond and the much more challenging hitting environment in the Eastern League. He has a strong arm but speed limitations likely make him strictly a LF with the Giants as long as the dimensions of Oracle Park remain the same. Still love the bat, though.
2018 A+: .300/.376/.485, 24 2B, 14 HR, 10.3 BB%, 24.1 K%, 0.83 GB/FB, 407 PA.
Some of us were surprised when Heath Quinn fell to the Giants in the third round of the 2016 draft. I know I had the bat as first round quality. He likely fell due to concerns about athleticism and position. That made his injury plagued faceplant in 2017 extremely disappointing, putting him in serious bust territory. He had a nice bounceback season in 2018 getting in 400 PA's despite another early season injury. 2019 promises to be a critical year in his development as he should move up to AA Richmond and the much more challenging hitting environment in the Eastern League. He has a strong arm but speed limitations likely make him strictly a LF with the Giants as long as the dimensions of Oracle Park remain the same. Still love the bat, though.
Monday, January 14, 2019
Hot Stove Update: Giants Bring Back Derek Holland
The Giants re-signed LHP Derek Holland for 1 yr/$7 M. The deal comes with a team option for $6.5 M for 2020 with incentives which could bring the total value to $15.5 M over 2 years. Given some of the contracts pitchers signed early in the offseason, I am really surprised the Giants were able to get Holland back at such a low price. I probably didn't hurt that he desperately wanted to stay with the Giants. Derek Holland had a terrific season last year in a comeback of sorts. Bobby Evans signed him to a minor league contract with $1.75 M if he made the majors. He's run hot and cold throughout his career, so the challenge is for him to keep it going in 2019. The risk here is minimal to the Giants so good move to bring him back. Q: Shouldn't Bobby Evans get the credit for finding Derek Holland at a bargain basement price and get the biggest value out of his performance?
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #16 Jalen Miller
Jalen Miller, 2B. DOB: 12/19/1996. B-R, T-R. 5'11", 190 lbs. Drafted 2015 Round 3, #95 overall.
2017 A+: .227/.283/.346, 25 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 6 SB, 6.6 BB%, 21.3 K%, .281 BABIP, .118 ISO, 1.09 GB/FB, 19.0 LD%, 42.2 GB%, 38.8 FB%, 35.71 XBH%, 470 PA.
2018 A+: .276/.321/.434, 35 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 11 SB, 4.9 BB%, 21.8 K%, .335 BABIP, .159 ISO, 0.94 GB/FB, 21.8 LD%, 37.9 GB%, 40.3 FB%, 36.71 XBH%, 554 PA.
This was Jalen Miller's second gig in San Jose at age 21. The doubters will point to his BABIP and BB%. They may well be right, but I would counter that he also objectively hit the ball harder and got it in the air more. Another caution would be that he started out hot but cooled off considerably over the last 3 months of the season and much of his production came from 1 very hot month in May.
Whatever the case, it's time for him to move up to AA where he'll still be fairly young for the level. He can also afford to repeat there if he has to. Comp is Howie Kendrick although Miller gets the ball in the air a lot more than Kendrick. We'll see if that turns out to be a good thing. One big thing in his favor is he's managed to stay healthy his whole pro career which has given him plenty of PA's to learn from. He's turning out to be not quite as toolsy as it seemed when he was drafted, but there may still be more power in there.
2017 A+: .227/.283/.346, 25 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 6 SB, 6.6 BB%, 21.3 K%, .281 BABIP, .118 ISO, 1.09 GB/FB, 19.0 LD%, 42.2 GB%, 38.8 FB%, 35.71 XBH%, 470 PA.
2018 A+: .276/.321/.434, 35 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 11 SB, 4.9 BB%, 21.8 K%, .335 BABIP, .159 ISO, 0.94 GB/FB, 21.8 LD%, 37.9 GB%, 40.3 FB%, 36.71 XBH%, 554 PA.
This was Jalen Miller's second gig in San Jose at age 21. The doubters will point to his BABIP and BB%. They may well be right, but I would counter that he also objectively hit the ball harder and got it in the air more. Another caution would be that he started out hot but cooled off considerably over the last 3 months of the season and much of his production came from 1 very hot month in May.
Whatever the case, it's time for him to move up to AA where he'll still be fairly young for the level. He can also afford to repeat there if he has to. Comp is Howie Kendrick although Miller gets the ball in the air a lot more than Kendrick. We'll see if that turns out to be a good thing. One big thing in his favor is he's managed to stay healthy his whole pro career which has given him plenty of PA's to learn from. He's turning out to be not quite as toolsy as it seemed when he was drafted, but there may still be more power in there.
Sunday, January 13, 2019
Scouting the 2019 Draft: Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll, OF, HS. DOB: 8/21/2000. B-L, T-L. 5'11", 160 lbs.
Corbin Carroll is a 4+ tool HS OF who is a bit shy on size and power, at least at this point. He seems to do everything else very well and even shows gap power. He's been compared to undersized, athletic OF's Jacoby Ellsbury and Andrew Benintendi. Fred Lynn might be another comp for us oldsters. Carroll's two best tools are hit(60) and run(70). He projects as a true CF.
By the PG numbers, Carroll runs the 60 yd dash in 6.33 secs, which is....really fast! He hits 91 MPH on OF throws even though he only reaches 80 on the mound. He has reached an Exit Velocity of 97 MPH which is enough to get it over the fence in most ballparks.
Even if the power doesn't fully develop, Carroll's speed and hit tool make him an excellent CF/leadoff hitter prospect more along the lines of an Adam Eaton. He's committed to UCLA, and I'm a bit on the fence about whether it would be better for him to go to college, but it will be hard to pass on a signing bonus if he's a top 12-15 pick which it seems he could be, or even higher. MLB Pipeline has him ranked as the #14 Draft Prospect while Fangraphs has him all the way up at #4!
*********************************************************************************
DrB's Updated 2019 Draft Board:
1. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, HS. 5-Tool athlete with MLB bloodline who can stick at SS.
2. Adley Rutschman, C, College(Oregon St.). Excellent catching prospect whose bat had a huge sophomore breakout.
3. CJ Abrams, SS, HS. 4+ tool prospect with best wheels in draft. Power lags a bit.
4. Shea Langeliers, C, College(Baylor). Solid catching prospect with potential for a plus bat.
5. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, College(Cal). Top College power bat in draft. Numbers guys will like him better than scouts.
6. Josh Jung, 3B, College(Texas Tech). Disciplined bat with power potential. Has arm to play 3B at highest level.
7. Kameron Misner, OF, College(Missouri). Best all around tools among college draft prospects. Stock could rise if he continues to put up solid stats.
8. Bryson Stott, SS, College(UNLV). Solid college bat who can stick at SS.
9. Corbin Carroll, OF, HS. Undersized speedy athletic OF with a strong hit tool in the mold of Ellsbury and Benintendi. Hit tool seems solid enough to take a chance on drawing him with a high pick. Projects as a true CF.
10. Riley Greene, OF, HS. Top HS bat in the draft with advanced hit tool with power. Lack of speed puts pressure on the bat.
11. Brennan Malone, RHP, HS. Ideal pitcher's size and frame with projectablility in a fastball that already touches 97 MPH.
12. Daniel Espino, RHP, HS. Very similar to Brennan Malone, but just a tad smaller. Has touched 99 MPH in a showcase game which topped Hunter Greene's previous record.
Corbin Carroll is a 4+ tool HS OF who is a bit shy on size and power, at least at this point. He seems to do everything else very well and even shows gap power. He's been compared to undersized, athletic OF's Jacoby Ellsbury and Andrew Benintendi. Fred Lynn might be another comp for us oldsters. Carroll's two best tools are hit(60) and run(70). He projects as a true CF.
By the PG numbers, Carroll runs the 60 yd dash in 6.33 secs, which is....really fast! He hits 91 MPH on OF throws even though he only reaches 80 on the mound. He has reached an Exit Velocity of 97 MPH which is enough to get it over the fence in most ballparks.
Even if the power doesn't fully develop, Carroll's speed and hit tool make him an excellent CF/leadoff hitter prospect more along the lines of an Adam Eaton. He's committed to UCLA, and I'm a bit on the fence about whether it would be better for him to go to college, but it will be hard to pass on a signing bonus if he's a top 12-15 pick which it seems he could be, or even higher. MLB Pipeline has him ranked as the #14 Draft Prospect while Fangraphs has him all the way up at #4!
*********************************************************************************
DrB's Updated 2019 Draft Board:
1. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, HS. 5-Tool athlete with MLB bloodline who can stick at SS.
2. Adley Rutschman, C, College(Oregon St.). Excellent catching prospect whose bat had a huge sophomore breakout.
3. CJ Abrams, SS, HS. 4+ tool prospect with best wheels in draft. Power lags a bit.
4. Shea Langeliers, C, College(Baylor). Solid catching prospect with potential for a plus bat.
5. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, College(Cal). Top College power bat in draft. Numbers guys will like him better than scouts.
6. Josh Jung, 3B, College(Texas Tech). Disciplined bat with power potential. Has arm to play 3B at highest level.
7. Kameron Misner, OF, College(Missouri). Best all around tools among college draft prospects. Stock could rise if he continues to put up solid stats.
8. Bryson Stott, SS, College(UNLV). Solid college bat who can stick at SS.
9. Corbin Carroll, OF, HS. Undersized speedy athletic OF with a strong hit tool in the mold of Ellsbury and Benintendi. Hit tool seems solid enough to take a chance on drawing him with a high pick. Projects as a true CF.
10. Riley Greene, OF, HS. Top HS bat in the draft with advanced hit tool with power. Lack of speed puts pressure on the bat.
11. Brennan Malone, RHP, HS. Ideal pitcher's size and frame with projectablility in a fastball that already touches 97 MPH.
12. Daniel Espino, RHP, HS. Very similar to Brennan Malone, but just a tad smaller. Has touched 99 MPH in a showcase game which topped Hunter Greene's previous record.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #15 Alexander Canario
Alexander Canario, OF. DOB: 5/7/2000. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 165 lbs. International FA 2016.
2017 DSL: .294/.391/.464, 17 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 18 SB, 12 BB%, 14.6 K%, 274 PA.
2018 AZL: .250/.357/.403, 5 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 8 SB, 13 BB%, 24.5 K%, 208 PA.
Alexander Canario has drawn some national attention as one of the more tooled up prospects in the Giants system. He also shows an ability to draw a walk which is relatively rare for a kid his age, especially one from the DSL. He's still got some physical projectability. Scouting reports give him "elite" bat speed but note his rawness as a player.
He's a bit higher on some lists. Maybe my expectations for him for the AZL were a bit unreasonable. He continued to draw walks. He hit a few HR's. The jump from the DSL to AZL is a big one and many prospects have a bigger drop-off. I just want to see a bit more of the hit tool on display before I move him up into my top 10. The other question is where do the Giants send him in 2019? I'm not convinced he is ready to face the rigors of Augusta and the SAL, so I would favor keeping him in extended spring training and then to Salem-Keizer to face older competition in a more hitter-friendly and less physically taxing environment. On the other hand maybe what he needs is more real-game PA's which would favor starting him in Augusta and then move to S-K if he struggles, which he likely will. Ceiling is a 20/20 offensive player who can cover CF, but there's still a lot of risk here.
2017 DSL: .294/.391/.464, 17 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 18 SB, 12 BB%, 14.6 K%, 274 PA.
2018 AZL: .250/.357/.403, 5 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 8 SB, 13 BB%, 24.5 K%, 208 PA.
Alexander Canario has drawn some national attention as one of the more tooled up prospects in the Giants system. He also shows an ability to draw a walk which is relatively rare for a kid his age, especially one from the DSL. He's still got some physical projectability. Scouting reports give him "elite" bat speed but note his rawness as a player.
He's a bit higher on some lists. Maybe my expectations for him for the AZL were a bit unreasonable. He continued to draw walks. He hit a few HR's. The jump from the DSL to AZL is a big one and many prospects have a bigger drop-off. I just want to see a bit more of the hit tool on display before I move him up into my top 10. The other question is where do the Giants send him in 2019? I'm not convinced he is ready to face the rigors of Augusta and the SAL, so I would favor keeping him in extended spring training and then to Salem-Keizer to face older competition in a more hitter-friendly and less physically taxing environment. On the other hand maybe what he needs is more real-game PA's which would favor starting him in Augusta and then move to S-K if he struggles, which he likely will. Ceiling is a 20/20 offensive player who can cover CF, but there's still a lot of risk here.
Saturday, January 12, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #14 David Villar
David Villar, 3B. DOB: 1/27/1997. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 205 lbs. Drafted 2018, Round 11, #316 Overall.
2016 College: .239/.305/.390, 14 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 8.41 BB%, 27.43 K%, 41 XBH%, 226 PA.
2016 New England Collegiate League: .276/.388/.575, 7 HR, 11.65 BB%, 22.33 K%, 50 XBH%, 103 PA.
2017 College: .290/.417/.449, 13 2B, 7 HR, 15.41 BB%, 23.21 K%, 32 XBH%, 266 PA.
2017 Northwoods League: .312/.399/.545, 15 2B, 13 HR, 8.42 BB%, 20.51 K%, 39 XBH%, 273 PA.
2018 College: .374/.463/.648, 24 2B, 12 HR, 10.37 BB%, 21.48 K%, 44 XBH%, 270 PA.
2018 Short Season: .279/.332/.549, 22 2B, 13 HR, 6.48 BB%, 27.13 K%, 56 XBH%, 247 PA.
How can I list a new 11'th round draft pick this high? Simply put, I think the Giants might have gotten the steal of the 2018 draft with David Villar who had a breakout college season although his college career followed a normal progression. He did not play in the most prestigious summer league but put up strong numbers in the two he did play in. He then kept right on mashing in his first pro season after the draft. Between college and the pros he smacked 46 2B and 25 HR's in 542 PA's.
Villar is from a respectable college program that also featured LHP Shane McClanahan. He likely fell in the draft due to a bad body which is reminiscent of Dan Uggla, but he plays 3B. We don't have to look any further than Pablo Sandoval to find a bad bodied player who could pick it at 3B. Villar seems to have enough arm to make the throws to first from behind the bag. On video, his swing is simple, short without a lot of extra movement, yet he is able to generate impressive power with simple body rotation.
I expect Villar to keep raking his way up the through the organization starting with A+ San Jose in 2019.
2016 College: .239/.305/.390, 14 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 8.41 BB%, 27.43 K%, 41 XBH%, 226 PA.
2016 New England Collegiate League: .276/.388/.575, 7 HR, 11.65 BB%, 22.33 K%, 50 XBH%, 103 PA.
2017 College: .290/.417/.449, 13 2B, 7 HR, 15.41 BB%, 23.21 K%, 32 XBH%, 266 PA.
2017 Northwoods League: .312/.399/.545, 15 2B, 13 HR, 8.42 BB%, 20.51 K%, 39 XBH%, 273 PA.
2018 College: .374/.463/.648, 24 2B, 12 HR, 10.37 BB%, 21.48 K%, 44 XBH%, 270 PA.
2018 Short Season: .279/.332/.549, 22 2B, 13 HR, 6.48 BB%, 27.13 K%, 56 XBH%, 247 PA.
How can I list a new 11'th round draft pick this high? Simply put, I think the Giants might have gotten the steal of the 2018 draft with David Villar who had a breakout college season although his college career followed a normal progression. He did not play in the most prestigious summer league but put up strong numbers in the two he did play in. He then kept right on mashing in his first pro season after the draft. Between college and the pros he smacked 46 2B and 25 HR's in 542 PA's.
Villar is from a respectable college program that also featured LHP Shane McClanahan. He likely fell in the draft due to a bad body which is reminiscent of Dan Uggla, but he plays 3B. We don't have to look any further than Pablo Sandoval to find a bad bodied player who could pick it at 3B. Villar seems to have enough arm to make the throws to first from behind the bag. On video, his swing is simple, short without a lot of extra movement, yet he is able to generate impressive power with simple body rotation.
I expect Villar to keep raking his way up the through the organization starting with A+ San Jose in 2019.
Scouting the 2019 Draft: Daniel Espino
Daniel Espino, RHP, HS. DOB: 1/5/2001. 6'2", 200 lbs.
Espino is a hard throwing HS righty who can sit in the mid-90's and hit 99 MPH at the Under Armour All-America Game which topped Hunter Greene's previous record. He backs that up with a solid slider and curveball and a nascent changeup. On video, he's got big, strong upper legs and butt that allows him to drop and drive. The arm action is long and smooth with a strong follow-through. He's committed to LSU so could be a challenging sign if he drops too far in the draft.
*********************************************************************************
Going forward, I won't update my draft board unless I profile a prospect that bumps someone out of the top 10. I would currently project Espino in the 12-25 range of draft picks.
Espino is a hard throwing HS righty who can sit in the mid-90's and hit 99 MPH at the Under Armour All-America Game which topped Hunter Greene's previous record. He backs that up with a solid slider and curveball and a nascent changeup. On video, he's got big, strong upper legs and butt that allows him to drop and drive. The arm action is long and smooth with a strong follow-through. He's committed to LSU so could be a challenging sign if he drops too far in the draft.
*********************************************************************************
Going forward, I won't update my draft board unless I profile a prospect that bumps someone out of the top 10. I would currently project Espino in the 12-25 range of draft picks.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #13 Garrett Williams
Garrett Williams, LHP. DOB: 9/15/1994. 6'1", 200 lbs. Drafted 2016 Round
2018 A+: 3-9, 6.05, 81.2 IP, 8.04 K/9, 6.72 BB/9, 2.16 GB/FB.
2018 AFL: 3-0, 1.88, 24 IP, 27 K, 11 BB.
Garrett Williams runs hot and cold. He had a terrific season across 2 levels in 2017 in which he kept his BB/9 below 3 which is quite good. Then, he did a faceplant in AA at a level he should have been ready for. Then, just as I was ready to write him off as a prospect, he turned in a fine performance in the Arizona Fall League which is generally a league that is more favorable to hitters than pitchers.
Williams has always had the upside with a 3 pitch mix including a sinking fastball that sits low 90's, a sharp breaking curveball and a change up all with late movement. The arm angle is low 3/4. The Baseball Census scouting report notes that if his elbow drops, his pitches flatten out and become much more hittable.
He might start out 2019 back in AA but if he can keep the good vibes from the AFL rolling, he could get an early promotion to AAA and who knows after that?
2018 A+: 3-9, 6.05, 81.2 IP, 8.04 K/9, 6.72 BB/9, 2.16 GB/FB.
2018 AFL: 3-0, 1.88, 24 IP, 27 K, 11 BB.
Garrett Williams runs hot and cold. He had a terrific season across 2 levels in 2017 in which he kept his BB/9 below 3 which is quite good. Then, he did a faceplant in AA at a level he should have been ready for. Then, just as I was ready to write him off as a prospect, he turned in a fine performance in the Arizona Fall League which is generally a league that is more favorable to hitters than pitchers.
Williams has always had the upside with a 3 pitch mix including a sinking fastball that sits low 90's, a sharp breaking curveball and a change up all with late movement. The arm angle is low 3/4. The Baseball Census scouting report notes that if his elbow drops, his pitches flatten out and become much more hittable.
He might start out 2019 back in AA but if he can keep the good vibes from the AFL rolling, he could get an early promotion to AAA and who knows after that?
Friday, January 11, 2019
Hot Stove Update: Dodgers Trade for Russell Martin
A day after officially losing Yasmani Grandal to free agency, the Dodgers made a trade for Russell Martin, who was their catcher a long, long time ago. Martin is now 36 yo and slashed .194/338/.325, 10 HR, 352 PA. If Martin is the Dodgers replacement for Grandal, that's a big drop-off, but they could still be in the hunt for JT Realmuto. BJ's are paying all but $3.1 M of Martin's $20 M salary. Dodger sent to prospects to the BJ's I have never heard of.
*********************************************************************************
The Yankees signed 2B DJ LeMahieu for 2 yrs/$24 M. LeMahieu has put up strong offensive numbers in Coors Field but has rather extreme home/road splits. Yankee Stadium might be the only other crib in MLB where he can come close to his Coors Field numbers.
*********************************************************************************
The Mets struck again, signing 2B Jed Lowrie for 2 yrs/$20 M. It appears Lowrie will play a Utility role with the Mets unless someone who is currently on the roster is traded as they already have Robinson Cano at 2B, Ahmed Rosario at SS and Todd Frazier at 3B.
*********************************************************************************
2B Brian Dozier signed a 1 yr/$9 M contract with the Nationals. Dozier was one of the very best players in all of baseball as a perennial 30/20 threat, but his numbers collapsed last season both with the Twins and Dodgers. His poor performance last season could have been related to a bone bruise to his knee(ouch!), so this seems like a nice upside play for the Nationals and an opportunity for Dozier to rebuild some of his value.
*********************************************************************************
If Farhan Zaidi is wanting to do the full Dumpster Dive, he might want to consider claiming an old Giant off waivers. Andrew Susac was waived by the Orioles, yes the Orioles, today to make roster room for IF Hanser Alberto. I've had my eye on Susac this offseason as a potential deep sleeper/upside play. He's had injury problems and hit just .115 in 26 PA for the Orioles last season but take a look at his AAA line: .256/.405/.456, 7 2B, 6 HR, 19.6 BB%, 26.6 K%, 158 PA. That is a line I think Zaidi may find worth taking a second look at.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #12 Travis Bergen
Travis Bergen, LHP. DOB: 10/8/1993. 6'1", 205 lbs.
2018 A+: 0-1, 1.71, 21 IP, 13.29 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, 1 Save.
2018 AA: 4-1, 0.50, 35.2 IP, 10.85 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 7 Saves.
Travis Bergen was the Giants other Rule 5 draft pick, actually the first rounder vs Drew Ferguson in the second round. Bergen is a lefty reliever who put up fantastic numbers at two minor league levels in 2018 after not pitching much in previous seasons. The Giants have plenty of lefty relievers so this pick was widely seen as a depth pick to help set up a potential trade of Will Smith and/or Tony Watson. Lefty relievers who can put up those kinds of numbers in AA can probably go straight to MLB, so there is a good chance that Bergen is good enough to stick on the active MLB roster.
Fangraphs scouting report says he started out his pro career as strictly a lefty specialist but the Blue Jays changed his stride to come more directly to home plate which has made him more effective against RH batters. Now he projects as a lefty who can face multiple batters. Fangraphs also has him with a low 90's FB, a plus curveball and a "tumbling" changeup. That changeup is likely what will ultimately determine if he is indeed a lefty who can be trusted to face RH batters. Heck, that repertoire might even enable him to be stretched out and start!
Whether he sticks with the Giants probably depends on their success in finding a great return in trade for Smith/Watson. Gotta like the numbers and scouting report. Now all he has to do is get some appearances and translate it into MLB success.
2018 A+: 0-1, 1.71, 21 IP, 13.29 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, 1 Save.
2018 AA: 4-1, 0.50, 35.2 IP, 10.85 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 7 Saves.
Travis Bergen was the Giants other Rule 5 draft pick, actually the first rounder vs Drew Ferguson in the second round. Bergen is a lefty reliever who put up fantastic numbers at two minor league levels in 2018 after not pitching much in previous seasons. The Giants have plenty of lefty relievers so this pick was widely seen as a depth pick to help set up a potential trade of Will Smith and/or Tony Watson. Lefty relievers who can put up those kinds of numbers in AA can probably go straight to MLB, so there is a good chance that Bergen is good enough to stick on the active MLB roster.
Fangraphs scouting report says he started out his pro career as strictly a lefty specialist but the Blue Jays changed his stride to come more directly to home plate which has made him more effective against RH batters. Now he projects as a lefty who can face multiple batters. Fangraphs also has him with a low 90's FB, a plus curveball and a "tumbling" changeup. That changeup is likely what will ultimately determine if he is indeed a lefty who can be trusted to face RH batters. Heck, that repertoire might even enable him to be stretched out and start!
Whether he sticks with the Giants probably depends on their success in finding a great return in trade for Smith/Watson. Gotta like the numbers and scouting report. Now all he has to do is get some appearances and translate it into MLB success.
Thursday, January 10, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #11 Drew Ferguson
Drew Ferguson, OF. DOB: 8/3/1992. B-R, T-R. 5'11", 180 lbs. Drafted 2015 Round 9, #559 overall(Astros).
2018 AAA: .305/.436/.429, 11 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 6 SB, 15.8 BB%, 20.9 K%, 292 PA.
Drew Ferguson was the Giants 2'nd selection in this year's Rule 5 Draft which means he'll either be on the 25 man active roster all season or he won't be in the organization at all by Opening Day. How do you rank someone like that on a list like this? I think Ferguson not only has a great chance to stick on the Giants Active Roster, but also has a chance to work his way into a starting OF job and bat leadoff in the lineup. He may not have any one outstanding tool, but he does everything well and has one outstanding skill: He gets on base! If his injury shortened stat line from 2018 does not convince you, here is his career minor league line: .297/.393/.455. Another reason I think he has a great chance to stick is unlike many Rule 5 draftees, he has significant AAA experience which means he should be ready to stick on a MLB Active Roster.
My comp? He's a right-handed version of Adam Eaton. How's that? Great Rule 5 draft pick, IMO! Could he become the Giants best leadoff hitter since....Brett Butler? I've been thinking about what the Giants OF might look like if the season started tomorrow. How about Drew Ferguson in RF, Steven Duggar in CF and Mac Williamson in LF with Mike Gerber and Austin Slater coming off the bench? It's risky, but if you squint, you can see a pretty good MLB OF emerging out of that.
2018 AAA: .305/.436/.429, 11 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 6 SB, 15.8 BB%, 20.9 K%, 292 PA.
Drew Ferguson was the Giants 2'nd selection in this year's Rule 5 Draft which means he'll either be on the 25 man active roster all season or he won't be in the organization at all by Opening Day. How do you rank someone like that on a list like this? I think Ferguson not only has a great chance to stick on the Giants Active Roster, but also has a chance to work his way into a starting OF job and bat leadoff in the lineup. He may not have any one outstanding tool, but he does everything well and has one outstanding skill: He gets on base! If his injury shortened stat line from 2018 does not convince you, here is his career minor league line: .297/.393/.455. Another reason I think he has a great chance to stick is unlike many Rule 5 draftees, he has significant AAA experience which means he should be ready to stick on a MLB Active Roster.
My comp? He's a right-handed version of Adam Eaton. How's that? Great Rule 5 draft pick, IMO! Could he become the Giants best leadoff hitter since....Brett Butler? I've been thinking about what the Giants OF might look like if the season started tomorrow. How about Drew Ferguson in RF, Steven Duggar in CF and Mac Williamson in LF with Mike Gerber and Austin Slater coming off the bench? It's risky, but if you squint, you can see a pretty good MLB OF emerging out of that.
Wednesday, January 9, 2019
Hot Stove Update: Grandal Settles for One Year Deal
Wow! Yasmani Grandal, who turned down a QO from the Dodgers for $17.9 M and a reported 4 yr/$60 M deal from the Mets, saw his market come crashing down and he settled for a 1 yr/$18.25 M deal with the Brewers. Grandal was widely considered the top catcher on the FA market and the second best available after TJ Realmuto. He's had a stellar run as the Dodgers main catcher for 4 years. A near-meltdown in the 2018 postseason may have depressed his value a bit but 4 yr/$60 M seemed about right. It's possible Grandal just wanted out of LA where he was booed mercilessly in the postseason and just wasn't diggin' the Mets win-now plan and preferred to take less money to play for a team he knew for sure was contending, but he sure did leave a large pot of guaranteed money on the table and ended up taking essentially the same deal he turned down from LA.
This is a huge upgrade at catcher for the Brewers who have to be ecstatic about their chances of going all the way to the World Series in 2019.
*********************************************************************************
This has been a weird offseason in which some teams seem to overpay for players while other players are signing for way less than projected. I guess if you are desperate for starting pitching, you'll overpay but this one is a surprise. The Rangers reportedly signed Shelby Miller to a guaranteed major league deal for $2 M with incentives that could bring the total value up to $5 M. Wow! I really thought Miller would likely have to accept a minor league deal or no more than a MLB minimum deal. I like Miller for comeback candidate but his record for both poor health and poor performance the last 2 seasons would not seem to justify that much guaranteed money.
*********************************************************************************
The White Sox signed OF Jon Jay and RHP Kelvin Herrera. Jay gets a 1 yr/$4 M contract while Herrera gets a 2 yr/$17 M deal with a $10 M team option for 2021 with a $1 M buyout giving him a total of $18 M in guaranteed money. Jay give the ChiSox a solid bench/platoon option in the OF while Herrera teams up with Alex Colome for a dramatically upgraded bullpen.
This is a huge upgrade at catcher for the Brewers who have to be ecstatic about their chances of going all the way to the World Series in 2019.
*********************************************************************************
This has been a weird offseason in which some teams seem to overpay for players while other players are signing for way less than projected. I guess if you are desperate for starting pitching, you'll overpay but this one is a surprise. The Rangers reportedly signed Shelby Miller to a guaranteed major league deal for $2 M with incentives that could bring the total value up to $5 M. Wow! I really thought Miller would likely have to accept a minor league deal or no more than a MLB minimum deal. I like Miller for comeback candidate but his record for both poor health and poor performance the last 2 seasons would not seem to justify that much guaranteed money.
*********************************************************************************
The White Sox signed OF Jon Jay and RHP Kelvin Herrera. Jay gets a 1 yr/$4 M contract while Herrera gets a 2 yr/$17 M deal with a $10 M team option for 2021 with a $1 M buyout giving him a total of $18 M in guaranteed money. Jay give the ChiSox a solid bench/platoon option in the OF while Herrera teams up with Alex Colome for a dramatically upgraded bullpen.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #10 Ryan Howard
Ryan Howard, SS. DOB: 7/25/1994. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 195 lbs. Drafted 2016 Round 5, #155 overall.
2018 AA: .273/.336/.396, 32 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 9 SB, 8.2 BB%, 11.6 K%, 475 PA.
Howard's BA took a dip from .306 in 2917 at San Jose, but his OBP and SLG% was steady. Meanwhile, he improved his BB% from 4.1 and his K% from 14.3 and his ISO from .091 to .123 mostly on a big spike in doubles from 21 to 32 in 90 fewer PA's. Here's an interesting comp line:
.257/.333/.347, 27 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 10 SB, 9.7 BB%, 11.4 K%, 599 PA.
That is Joe Panik's AA line from 2013. He went on to hit .321 in 326 PA in AAA in 2014 and .305 in 287 PA for the Giants. Howard will likely start 2019 in AAA Sacramento but could be called up anytime he's needed and should be able to handle MLB pitching. He's stayed at SS longer than Panik did but his future is likely more at 2B or 3B. Obviously he could be a utility guy too. I could easily have ranked him above Aramis Garcia and Chris Shaw, but gave the nod to their MLB experience.
2018 AA: .273/.336/.396, 32 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 9 SB, 8.2 BB%, 11.6 K%, 475 PA.
Howard's BA took a dip from .306 in 2917 at San Jose, but his OBP and SLG% was steady. Meanwhile, he improved his BB% from 4.1 and his K% from 14.3 and his ISO from .091 to .123 mostly on a big spike in doubles from 21 to 32 in 90 fewer PA's. Here's an interesting comp line:
.257/.333/.347, 27 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 10 SB, 9.7 BB%, 11.4 K%, 599 PA.
That is Joe Panik's AA line from 2013. He went on to hit .321 in 326 PA in AAA in 2014 and .305 in 287 PA for the Giants. Howard will likely start 2019 in AAA Sacramento but could be called up anytime he's needed and should be able to handle MLB pitching. He's stayed at SS longer than Panik did but his future is likely more at 2B or 3B. Obviously he could be a utility guy too. I could easily have ranked him above Aramis Garcia and Chris Shaw, but gave the nod to their MLB experience.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #9 Chris Shaw
Chris Shaw, LF. DOB: 10/20/1993. B-L, T-R. 6'3", 226 lbs. Drafted 2015 Round 1, #31 overall.
2018 AAA: .259/.308/.505, 21 2B, 2 3B, 24 HR, 5.0 BB%, 34.1 K%, 1.01 GB/FB, 422 PA.
2018 MLB: .185/274/.278, 2 2B, HR, 11.3 BB%, 37.1 K%, 0.86 GB/FB, 62 PA.
Chris Shaw was the top power bat in the Giants organization until Joey Bart was drafted. Shaw's strikeouts spiked when he reached AAA and have not come back down. That is also when the Giants committed to playing him exclusively in LF, so maybe he is concentrating on his fielding? Anyway, I have him in the top 10 due to belief in his power, not looking terrible in LF during his Sept. callup and just the fact he has a few MLB innings under his belt. He should start the 2019 season in AAA and work on cutting down on the K's.
2018 AAA: .259/.308/.505, 21 2B, 2 3B, 24 HR, 5.0 BB%, 34.1 K%, 1.01 GB/FB, 422 PA.
2018 MLB: .185/274/.278, 2 2B, HR, 11.3 BB%, 37.1 K%, 0.86 GB/FB, 62 PA.
Chris Shaw was the top power bat in the Giants organization until Joey Bart was drafted. Shaw's strikeouts spiked when he reached AAA and have not come back down. That is also when the Giants committed to playing him exclusively in LF, so maybe he is concentrating on his fielding? Anyway, I have him in the top 10 due to belief in his power, not looking terrible in LF during his Sept. callup and just the fact he has a few MLB innings under his belt. He should start the 2019 season in AAA and work on cutting down on the K's.
Tuesday, January 8, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #8 Aramis Garcia
Aramis Garcia, C. DOB: 1/12/1993. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 220 lbs. Drafted 2014 Round 2, #52 overall.
2018 AA: .233/.287/.395, 14 2B, 3B, 11 HR, 6.1 BB%, 23.2 K%, .272 BABIP, 1.07 GB/FB, 328 PA.
2018 AAA: .237/.268/.263, 4.9 BB%, 29.3 K%, 41 PA.
2018 MLB: .286/.308/.492, 4 HR, 3.1 BB%, 47.7 K%, 65 PA.
Aramis Garcia is ranked this high because of the position he plays and for showing some toonder in his bat in a small sample during a late season callup. His development was essentially delayed a year by a facial fracture suffered on the basepaths in 2016. He seems fully recovered now. He's a guy who has tended to be streaky and to take a month or two to adjust to a new level. His ratios have been up and down and all over the place in the minors. I speculate that his 2018 AA BB% and K% are close to what his MLB career will look like once he gets established. The power is for real, though. It's just a question of getting to contact and flyball ratios that will let him use it.
Ideally, I think at least another half season of salt in AAA would do him good and that's where I expect we'll see him to start 2018. His biggest challenges with the Giants are a couple of guys named Buster Posey and Joey Bart, so Aramis may ultimately find his success with another team.
2018 AA: .233/.287/.395, 14 2B, 3B, 11 HR, 6.1 BB%, 23.2 K%, .272 BABIP, 1.07 GB/FB, 328 PA.
2018 AAA: .237/.268/.263, 4.9 BB%, 29.3 K%, 41 PA.
2018 MLB: .286/.308/.492, 4 HR, 3.1 BB%, 47.7 K%, 65 PA.
Aramis Garcia is ranked this high because of the position he plays and for showing some toonder in his bat in a small sample during a late season callup. His development was essentially delayed a year by a facial fracture suffered on the basepaths in 2016. He seems fully recovered now. He's a guy who has tended to be streaky and to take a month or two to adjust to a new level. His ratios have been up and down and all over the place in the minors. I speculate that his 2018 AA BB% and K% are close to what his MLB career will look like once he gets established. The power is for real, though. It's just a question of getting to contact and flyball ratios that will let him use it.
Ideally, I think at least another half season of salt in AAA would do him good and that's where I expect we'll see him to start 2018. His biggest challenges with the Giants are a couple of guys named Buster Posey and Joey Bart, so Aramis may ultimately find his success with another team.
Monday, January 7, 2019
Armchair GM: 3 Trades the Giants Did Not Make
Outfield has been a weak link for the Giants now for at least two seasons. For them to have any hope of competing in 2019, they need to significantly upgrade at least one and more realistically two of their starting OF positions. Of course one way to do that is to flex their financial muscle and sign Bryce Harper for whatever it takes. I love Bryce Harper but don't see him as a great fit for AT&T Park and I'm not sure his track record justifies that type of franchise player investment. A more reasonable free agent target might be AJ Pollock who I think is a good fit for the ballpark, but even I would not spring for the 6 years he is rumored to be asking for.
Another way of addressing the need is through trades. The problem with trades is the Giants probably don't have enough of the type of prospects teams would be looking to get in return for established MLB outfielders. That leaves "buy low" options which are supposed to be Farhan Zaidi's forte. Three trades this offseason so far prove that "buy low" options are available and the price in prospects is something the Giants should be able to easily meet.
Trade #1: Brewers trade OF Domingo Santana to the Mariners for OF Ben Gamel and RHP Noah Zavolas. After a breakout 2017 in which Santana hit 30 HR's and stole 15 bases, he got shunted to the bench and then to the minors in 2018 after the BrewCrew obtained Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Santana strikes out a ton but has strong walk rates and has the obvious power potential. His Steamer projection for 2019: .237/.329/.406, 19 HR, 11.3 BB%, 32.8 K%. Maybe not exactly what you are hoping for, but a large upgrade on anybody on the Giants current roster. That is a deal the Giants easily have the resources to top.
Trade #2: Brewers Trade OF Keon Broxton to the Mets for RHP Bobby Wahl, RHP Adam Hill and 2B Felix Valerio. Broxton had a 20/20 season in 2017 in 463 PA before also being shunted to the bench and the minors in 2018. He's a tremendous athlete who is not the offensive force Domingo Santana is. He also strikes out a ton but also has strong walk rates and is a tremendous defender in CF. He would be a defensive force in either RF or CF in AT&T Park. Again, the package the Mets gave up does not include anyone you are likely to read about on top prospect articles and lists.
Trade #3: Astros Trade OF J.D. Davis to the Mets with IF Cody Bohanek for IF Luis Santana, OF Ross Adolph and C Scott Manea. Davis is not the athlete that either Domingo Santana or Keon Broxton are but he has "light tower" power. He has mashed his way up the Astros ladder, but has struggled in 2 MLB tries albeit small samples. He doesn't cover much ground in the OF but has a cannon for an arm and of course the power. His K rates are high but not as high as Santana or Broxton and his BB rates are solid. He may not be better prospect than Mac Williamson, but unlike Mac he has 2 options left so could be stashed in AAA if Mac were to beat him out for the starting LF job. Again, the cost on prospects was negligible for the Mets.
There are undoubtedly other OF available in similar deals out there and maybe some of them look more promising to Farhan Zaidi, or maybe he has bigger fish to fry that he's keeping to himself. On the other hand, these are 3 deals that look like upgrades on the Giants current roster that they have the resources to make and obviously did not require waiting out the market. I will compare future Giants signings and trades against these 3 in judging the success or failure of this offseason.
Another way of addressing the need is through trades. The problem with trades is the Giants probably don't have enough of the type of prospects teams would be looking to get in return for established MLB outfielders. That leaves "buy low" options which are supposed to be Farhan Zaidi's forte. Three trades this offseason so far prove that "buy low" options are available and the price in prospects is something the Giants should be able to easily meet.
Trade #1: Brewers trade OF Domingo Santana to the Mariners for OF Ben Gamel and RHP Noah Zavolas. After a breakout 2017 in which Santana hit 30 HR's and stole 15 bases, he got shunted to the bench and then to the minors in 2018 after the BrewCrew obtained Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Santana strikes out a ton but has strong walk rates and has the obvious power potential. His Steamer projection for 2019: .237/.329/.406, 19 HR, 11.3 BB%, 32.8 K%. Maybe not exactly what you are hoping for, but a large upgrade on anybody on the Giants current roster. That is a deal the Giants easily have the resources to top.
Trade #2: Brewers Trade OF Keon Broxton to the Mets for RHP Bobby Wahl, RHP Adam Hill and 2B Felix Valerio. Broxton had a 20/20 season in 2017 in 463 PA before also being shunted to the bench and the minors in 2018. He's a tremendous athlete who is not the offensive force Domingo Santana is. He also strikes out a ton but also has strong walk rates and is a tremendous defender in CF. He would be a defensive force in either RF or CF in AT&T Park. Again, the package the Mets gave up does not include anyone you are likely to read about on top prospect articles and lists.
Trade #3: Astros Trade OF J.D. Davis to the Mets with IF Cody Bohanek for IF Luis Santana, OF Ross Adolph and C Scott Manea. Davis is not the athlete that either Domingo Santana or Keon Broxton are but he has "light tower" power. He has mashed his way up the Astros ladder, but has struggled in 2 MLB tries albeit small samples. He doesn't cover much ground in the OF but has a cannon for an arm and of course the power. His K rates are high but not as high as Santana or Broxton and his BB rates are solid. He may not be better prospect than Mac Williamson, but unlike Mac he has 2 options left so could be stashed in AAA if Mac were to beat him out for the starting LF job. Again, the cost on prospects was negligible for the Mets.
There are undoubtedly other OF available in similar deals out there and maybe some of them look more promising to Farhan Zaidi, or maybe he has bigger fish to fry that he's keeping to himself. On the other hand, these are 3 deals that look like upgrades on the Giants current roster that they have the resources to make and obviously did not require waiting out the market. I will compare future Giants signings and trades against these 3 in judging the success or failure of this offseason.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #7 Shaun Anderson
Shaun Anderson, RHP. DOB: 10/29/1994. 6'4", 225 lbs. Drafted 2016 Round 3, #88 Overall(Red Sox).
2018 AA: 6-5, 3.45, 94 IP, 8.90 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 1.31 GB/FB.
2018 AAA: 2-2, 418, 47.1 IP, 6.46 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 1.32 GB/FB.
Shaun Anderson is a horse! Have I ever said that before? He was the other half of the return for Eduardo Nunez from the BoSox. Big strong kid with the stamina to go deep into games. Anderson doesn't have one pitch that blows people away but he has an advanced mix of 3 above average pitches which he can command. Scouting report comes from Baseball Census who saw him in the same game I did late 2017 in San Bernardino where he allowed just 1 baserunner in 6 IP with 7 K's. His FB sits in the low 90's but has late downward break. His slider also shows late life and the changeup is a nice complementary piece he can use against LH batters. His numbers slipped a bit after a second half promotion to AAA, but 1. It was later in the season. 2. The PCL is very tough on pitchers. 3. Many of the guys he faced had been playing all season in AAA and/or the majors and they were all getting better over the season too.
I expect Anderson to start the 2019 season in AAA Sacramento. A promotion to the Giants will depend on his performance and team needs. I see him as a guy who can eat innings as a #4 SP in MLB.
2018 AA: 6-5, 3.45, 94 IP, 8.90 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 1.31 GB/FB.
2018 AAA: 2-2, 418, 47.1 IP, 6.46 K/9, 2.09 BB/9, 1.32 GB/FB.
Shaun Anderson is a horse! Have I ever said that before? He was the other half of the return for Eduardo Nunez from the BoSox. Big strong kid with the stamina to go deep into games. Anderson doesn't have one pitch that blows people away but he has an advanced mix of 3 above average pitches which he can command. Scouting report comes from Baseball Census who saw him in the same game I did late 2017 in San Bernardino where he allowed just 1 baserunner in 6 IP with 7 K's. His FB sits in the low 90's but has late downward break. His slider also shows late life and the changeup is a nice complementary piece he can use against LH batters. His numbers slipped a bit after a second half promotion to AAA, but 1. It was later in the season. 2. The PCL is very tough on pitchers. 3. Many of the guys he faced had been playing all season in AAA and/or the majors and they were all getting better over the season too.
I expect Anderson to start the 2019 season in AAA Sacramento. A promotion to the Giants will depend on his performance and team needs. I see him as a guy who can eat innings as a #4 SP in MLB.
Sunday, January 6, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #6 Gregory Santos
Gregory Santos, RHP. DOB: 8/28/1999. 6'2", 190 lbs. Acquired in 2017 trade from Red Sox for Eduardo Nunez. IFA 2015.
2018 Short Season: 2-5, 4.53, 49.2 IP, 8.34 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, .377 BABIP, 2.54 GB/FB, 3.45 FIP, 3.43 xFIP.
Gregory Santos is the type of prospect that can flip a trade years after it's made. He was a 17 year old pitching in the Dominical Summer League when the Red Sox gave him up for Eduardo Nunez who went on to be a really good player for them. When the Giants brought Santos to the US for the 2018 season, they skipped him over Arizona and sent him to Salem-Keizer where he was competing against much older players, mostly college draftees and AZL graduates. Although his ERA was not much to look at, his peripherals look good, especially that groundball rate. He survived a really bad scare when he was hit on the head by a comeback liner and suffered a concussion but did come back to appear healthy before the end of the season.
A scouting report from 2080 website states that Santos has grown from his listed size to "roughly" 6'4", 225 lbs. A video clip from the same site tends to back that up. The FB sits at 94-96 MPH and is backed up by a sharp slider and a changeup that still needs work. 2019 will be just his age 19 season. I expect he will be in the starting rotation for the Augusta Greenjackets to start the season. He's a kid to dream on.
2018 Short Season: 2-5, 4.53, 49.2 IP, 8.34 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, .377 BABIP, 2.54 GB/FB, 3.45 FIP, 3.43 xFIP.
Gregory Santos is the type of prospect that can flip a trade years after it's made. He was a 17 year old pitching in the Dominical Summer League when the Red Sox gave him up for Eduardo Nunez who went on to be a really good player for them. When the Giants brought Santos to the US for the 2018 season, they skipped him over Arizona and sent him to Salem-Keizer where he was competing against much older players, mostly college draftees and AZL graduates. Although his ERA was not much to look at, his peripherals look good, especially that groundball rate. He survived a really bad scare when he was hit on the head by a comeback liner and suffered a concussion but did come back to appear healthy before the end of the season.
A scouting report from 2080 website states that Santos has grown from his listed size to "roughly" 6'4", 225 lbs. A video clip from the same site tends to back that up. The FB sits at 94-96 MPH and is backed up by a sharp slider and a changeup that still needs work. 2019 will be just his age 19 season. I expect he will be in the starting rotation for the Augusta Greenjackets to start the season. He's a kid to dream on.
Saturday, January 5, 2019
Hot Stove Update: Giants Pass on Keon Broxton, Acquire Breyvic Valera
Farhan Zaidi has been President of Baseball Oper.....oh hell! Can we just call him the GM and be done with it? Anyway, Farhan Zaidi has been on the job for, what, less than two months? He's already in danger of becoming a parody of himself! It's no secret the Giants need outfielders. They need young, athletic outfielders who can go get balls in the enormous gaps in AT&T Park. They need outfielders with some power at the plate. When the Hot Stove fired up this offseason, the Brewers had 2 young, athletic outfielders with some power who were available in trade. Both seemed like potential fits for the Giants. Both have now been traded for....well.....pretty much nothing, and not to the Giants! Today, Broxton went to the Mets for RHP Bobby Wahl and prospects RHP Adam Hill and SS Felix Valerio. If you've never heard of any of those 3 players, don't feel bad, nobody else has either. OK, yes, Broxton had a rough season last year both in the majors and in AAA and he strikes out at an alarming rate, but he also posted 11, that's right 11, Defensive Runs Saved in just 134 CF innings last year! He also had an IsoP of .231, and he cost the Mets pretty much nothing.
Meanwhile, who did Farhan Zaidi make a trade for? Breyvic Valera, who I'm guessing you also had not heard of before today. He had been put on waivers by the Orioles, yes the Orioles! Zaidi traded for Valera last season then flipped him to the O's in the Manny Machado trade, so there's that. Maybe he's the key to a trade Zaidi has up his sleeve down the road? I guess we'll see. For now, he takes up the 39'th of 40 MLB roster spots, which doesn't leave a whole lot of room for other acquisitions, unless of course the GM has another trade up his sleeve.
*********************************************************************************
In other Hot Stove news, the Yankees re-signed LHP Zach Britton to a 3 year/$39 M contract. Britton was once one of the most dominant closers in MLB but has spent much of the last 2 seasons on the DL. OK, I'm a little frustrated with Farhan Zaidi right now, but I gotta admit, I'm not wishing he would make more deals like this one!
Meanwhile, who did Farhan Zaidi make a trade for? Breyvic Valera, who I'm guessing you also had not heard of before today. He had been put on waivers by the Orioles, yes the Orioles! Zaidi traded for Valera last season then flipped him to the O's in the Manny Machado trade, so there's that. Maybe he's the key to a trade Zaidi has up his sleeve down the road? I guess we'll see. For now, he takes up the 39'th of 40 MLB roster spots, which doesn't leave a whole lot of room for other acquisitions, unless of course the GM has another trade up his sleeve.
*********************************************************************************
In other Hot Stove news, the Yankees re-signed LHP Zach Britton to a 3 year/$39 M contract. Britton was once one of the most dominant closers in MLB but has spent much of the last 2 seasons on the DL. OK, I'm a little frustrated with Farhan Zaidi right now, but I gotta admit, I'm not wishing he would make more deals like this one!
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #5 Melvin Adon
Melvin Adon, RHP. DOB: 6/9/1994. 6'3", 235 lbs. International Free Agent 2014.
2018 A+: 2-5, 4.87, 77.2 IP, 8.23 K/9, 3.94 BB/9, 1.97 GB/FB.
2018 AFL: 0-1, 2.92, 12.1 IP, 21 K, 3 BB, GO/AO= 1.67.
Melvin Adon is this high on the list for one reason: He can throw a baseball 100 MPH for 6 or 7 innings. Even in today's game where hitting triple digits is not unusual, doing it deep into games as a starter is. The problem for Adon is he doesn't always command the pitch and we haven't even gotten to his secondary stuff which is even more of a challenge for him. The slider is a plus pitch when he commands it, but he does it inconsistently. After struggling all season as a SP for the San Jose Giants, Adon went down to the Arizona Fall League and was lights out pitching out of the bullpen.
I saw Melvin Adon pitch in April 2018 for the SJ Giants in San Bernardino and he looked overweight, soft and out of shape. I just looked at video of him pitching in the AFL late in November and he had slimmed down noticeably. He has a loose arm with a fluid motion that is somewhat similar to Madison Bumgarner's except from the right side. The ball comes in like a laser and explodes into the catcher's glove.
I guess the big question is whether to continue to try to develop him as a SP or try to fast-track him as a reliever. Personally, I would like to see the Giants send him to AA as a SP and see if he can carry the mojo he found in Arizona to the pitcher-friendly Eastern League and have a breakout. It's a lot easier to convert a pitcher from starting to relieving than the other way and it's too early to give up on his ability to carry that velocity deep into games.
2018 A+: 2-5, 4.87, 77.2 IP, 8.23 K/9, 3.94 BB/9, 1.97 GB/FB.
2018 AFL: 0-1, 2.92, 12.1 IP, 21 K, 3 BB, GO/AO= 1.67.
Melvin Adon is this high on the list for one reason: He can throw a baseball 100 MPH for 6 or 7 innings. Even in today's game where hitting triple digits is not unusual, doing it deep into games as a starter is. The problem for Adon is he doesn't always command the pitch and we haven't even gotten to his secondary stuff which is even more of a challenge for him. The slider is a plus pitch when he commands it, but he does it inconsistently. After struggling all season as a SP for the San Jose Giants, Adon went down to the Arizona Fall League and was lights out pitching out of the bullpen.
I saw Melvin Adon pitch in April 2018 for the SJ Giants in San Bernardino and he looked overweight, soft and out of shape. I just looked at video of him pitching in the AFL late in November and he had slimmed down noticeably. He has a loose arm with a fluid motion that is somewhat similar to Madison Bumgarner's except from the right side. The ball comes in like a laser and explodes into the catcher's glove.
I guess the big question is whether to continue to try to develop him as a SP or try to fast-track him as a reliever. Personally, I would like to see the Giants send him to AA as a SP and see if he can carry the mojo he found in Arizona to the pitcher-friendly Eastern League and have a breakout. It's a lot easier to convert a pitcher from starting to relieving than the other way and it's too early to give up on his ability to carry that velocity deep into games.
Friday, January 4, 2019
Scouting the 2019 Draft: Bryson Stott
Bryson Stott, SS, College(UNLV). 10/6/1997. B-L, T-R. 6'3", 195 lbs.
2017 College: .294/.359/.379, 11 2B, 2 3B, HR, 4 SB, 9.28 BB%, 10.13 K%, 237 PA.
2017 Northwoods League: .352/.442/.451, 17 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 26 SB, 14.33 BB%, 8.77 K%, 342 PA.
2018 College: .365/.442/.556, 30 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 14 SB, 10.88 BB%, 6.12 K%, 294 PA.
2018 Cape Cod League: .275/.383/.325, 2 2B, 4 SB, 14.89 BB%, 17.02 K%, 47 PA.
Bryson Stott seems to remind a lot of people of Brandon Crawford. He does look similar at first glance with a similar running style with his head down. He's a bit taller with longer arms and legs and a bit more room to fill out. His batting lines are different too with more doubles, more walks, more SB's and a lot fewer K's. He reportedly has the defensive chops to stay at SS, somewhat rare for a college SS, but what I can't tell from scouting reports or videos is if he has the same balance, creativity on difficult plays and dominant arm strength as Crawford. My reaction from what I've seen is probably not, but then very few major league SS's can do what Crawford does on the field. Now, here's my rant about scouting videos that always show infielders take two crow hops before throwing the ball and run halfway across the infield before throwing after charging a slow roller. In summary, it appears to me that Stott is a better hitter than Brandon Crawford but likely not as good a defender. The question is, is he good enough on defense? Probably, but even if he isn't, the bat is probably good enough to play at another position. MLB Pipeline has him ranked at #12 while Fangraphs has him all the way up at #3.
*********************************************************************************
DrB's Updated 2019 Draft Board:
1. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, HS. 5-tool athlete with MLB bloodline who can stick at SS.
2. Adley Rutschman, C, College(Oregon St). Excellent catching prospect whose bat had a huge sophomore breakout.
3. CJ Abrams, SS, HS. 4+ tool prospect with best wheels in draft. Power lags a bit.
4. Shea Langeliers, C, College(Baylor). Solid catching prospect with potential for a plus bat.
5. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Collge(Cal). Top college power bat in draft. Numbers guys will like him better than the scouts.
6. Josh Jung, 3B, College(Texas Tech). Disciplined bat with power potential. Has arm to play 3B at highest level.
7. Kameron Misner, OF/1B, College(Missouri). Best all around tools among college draft prospects. Stock could rise if he continues to put up solid stats.
8. Bryson Stott, SS, College(UNLV). Solid college bat who can stick at SS
9. Riley Greene, OF, HS. Top HS bat in the draft with advanced hit tool with power. Lack of speed puts pressure on the bat.
10. Brennan Malone, RHP, HS. Ideal pitcher's size and frame with projectability in a fastball that already touches 97 MPH.
11. Graeme Stinson, LHP, College(Duke). Jumbo sized lefty with "plus-plus" slider. Low risk/high floor prospect, but I see him as a likely reliever in the pros.
12. Carter Stewart, RHP, JC. Has tools to be an ace. Will need to overcome health concerns after "failing" physical with the Braves last year.
2017 College: .294/.359/.379, 11 2B, 2 3B, HR, 4 SB, 9.28 BB%, 10.13 K%, 237 PA.
2017 Northwoods League: .352/.442/.451, 17 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 26 SB, 14.33 BB%, 8.77 K%, 342 PA.
2018 College: .365/.442/.556, 30 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 14 SB, 10.88 BB%, 6.12 K%, 294 PA.
2018 Cape Cod League: .275/.383/.325, 2 2B, 4 SB, 14.89 BB%, 17.02 K%, 47 PA.
Bryson Stott seems to remind a lot of people of Brandon Crawford. He does look similar at first glance with a similar running style with his head down. He's a bit taller with longer arms and legs and a bit more room to fill out. His batting lines are different too with more doubles, more walks, more SB's and a lot fewer K's. He reportedly has the defensive chops to stay at SS, somewhat rare for a college SS, but what I can't tell from scouting reports or videos is if he has the same balance, creativity on difficult plays and dominant arm strength as Crawford. My reaction from what I've seen is probably not, but then very few major league SS's can do what Crawford does on the field. Now, here's my rant about scouting videos that always show infielders take two crow hops before throwing the ball and run halfway across the infield before throwing after charging a slow roller. In summary, it appears to me that Stott is a better hitter than Brandon Crawford but likely not as good a defender. The question is, is he good enough on defense? Probably, but even if he isn't, the bat is probably good enough to play at another position. MLB Pipeline has him ranked at #12 while Fangraphs has him all the way up at #3.
*********************************************************************************
DrB's Updated 2019 Draft Board:
1. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, HS. 5-tool athlete with MLB bloodline who can stick at SS.
2. Adley Rutschman, C, College(Oregon St). Excellent catching prospect whose bat had a huge sophomore breakout.
3. CJ Abrams, SS, HS. 4+ tool prospect with best wheels in draft. Power lags a bit.
4. Shea Langeliers, C, College(Baylor). Solid catching prospect with potential for a plus bat.
5. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Collge(Cal). Top college power bat in draft. Numbers guys will like him better than the scouts.
6. Josh Jung, 3B, College(Texas Tech). Disciplined bat with power potential. Has arm to play 3B at highest level.
7. Kameron Misner, OF/1B, College(Missouri). Best all around tools among college draft prospects. Stock could rise if he continues to put up solid stats.
8. Bryson Stott, SS, College(UNLV). Solid college bat who can stick at SS
9. Riley Greene, OF, HS. Top HS bat in the draft with advanced hit tool with power. Lack of speed puts pressure on the bat.
10. Brennan Malone, RHP, HS. Ideal pitcher's size and frame with projectability in a fastball that already touches 97 MPH.
11. Graeme Stinson, LHP, College(Duke). Jumbo sized lefty with "plus-plus" slider. Low risk/high floor prospect, but I see him as a likely reliever in the pros.
12. Carter Stewart, RHP, JC. Has tools to be an ace. Will need to overcome health concerns after "failing" physical with the Braves last year.
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #4 Logan Webb
Logan Webb, RHP. DOB: 11/18/1996. 6'2", 220 lbs. Drafted 2014 Round 4 #118 overall.
2018 A+: 1-3, 1.82, 74 IP, 9.00 K/9, 4.38 BB/9, 1.22 GB/FB.
2018AA: 1-2, 3.82, 30.2 IP, 7.36 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 1.64 GB/FB.
Logan Webb was a 2-sport athlete from Rocklin HS, CA who played QB on the football team and pitched for the baseball team. He signed with the Giants after they selected him. He's a hard thrower with a mid-90's FB that tops out at 96 MPH with hard sink. He backs that up with a sharp breaking slider and a show-me change which could develop if he used it more. After a promising start to his pro career, he struggled in 2016 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He came back strong in late 2017 with Salem-Keizer and moved up to San Jose in 2018. The Giants limited him to 3 inning starts early in the season, gradually stretching him out and promoting him to AA late in the season. He continued to show a groundball tendency with pedestrian K rates. His BB rates were not quite as good as pre-TJ.
On Video, Webb has a big frame and pounds the zone with a simple delivery that wastes little motion and features quick arm action. Look for him to start the 2019 season in AA with a possible promo to AAA if comes out strong. I am thinking we could see a breakout as he is a full year beyond TJ surgery and will start the season in a pitcher-friendly environment. It's not impossible that we could see him in SF before the end of the season, although the Giants do have some pitching depth and are likely to have more by the start of the season. I see Webb as a solid #3-4 SP at his peak.
2018 A+: 1-3, 1.82, 74 IP, 9.00 K/9, 4.38 BB/9, 1.22 GB/FB.
2018AA: 1-2, 3.82, 30.2 IP, 7.36 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 1.64 GB/FB.
Logan Webb was a 2-sport athlete from Rocklin HS, CA who played QB on the football team and pitched for the baseball team. He signed with the Giants after they selected him. He's a hard thrower with a mid-90's FB that tops out at 96 MPH with hard sink. He backs that up with a sharp breaking slider and a show-me change which could develop if he used it more. After a promising start to his pro career, he struggled in 2016 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He came back strong in late 2017 with Salem-Keizer and moved up to San Jose in 2018. The Giants limited him to 3 inning starts early in the season, gradually stretching him out and promoting him to AA late in the season. He continued to show a groundball tendency with pedestrian K rates. His BB rates were not quite as good as pre-TJ.
On Video, Webb has a big frame and pounds the zone with a simple delivery that wastes little motion and features quick arm action. Look for him to start the 2019 season in AA with a possible promo to AAA if comes out strong. I am thinking we could see a breakout as he is a full year beyond TJ surgery and will start the season in a pitcher-friendly environment. It's not impossible that we could see him in SF before the end of the season, although the Giants do have some pitching depth and are likely to have more by the start of the season. I see Webb as a solid #3-4 SP at his peak.
Thursday, January 3, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #3 Marco Luciano
Marco Luciano, SS. DOB: 9/10/2001. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 180 lbs. International FA July 2, 2018.
It's too early for any stat lines on Marco Luciano, so we'll settle for $2.6 M, the amount of his signing bonus. Luciano was rated as the #2 international prospect in the 2018 signing class which opened July 2. He is the first international prospect since Lucius Fox to get a 7-figure bonus from the Giants because that signing cost them a 2 year penalty in which they could not spend more than $300 K on any one international prospect. I'm just going to quote Fangraphs scouting report verbatim:
"Luciano's broad, square, muscular shoulders look like they belong to a D1 high school football prospect. He has one of the better frames in the class and plenty of room to add power to a body that already produces a lot of it. Luciano has explosive hands and a natural uppercut swing. He hits many more balls out during BP than is typical for a hitter this age and has taken peers deep in games too. Luciano's feet and actions are workable on the infield but he struggles with throwing velocity and accuracy when he's forced to throw from a lower arm slot, as shortstops often are. If he can't correct it, he'll need to move to the outfield. Luciano's power separates him from most of the rest of the class and he's a potential star if he can stay at short."
I'll just add that in pictures and video, Luciano has huge hands that remind me of Willie Mays and long thin limbs with narrow hips that remind me of Hunter Pence. Then, of course there are the shoulders and I'm not sure where I've seen those before! Fangraphs gives him a + for Athleticism and a + for Frame.
I"ll add in some quotes from the MLB Pipeline scouting report:
"Scouts consider Luciano among the top overall hitters in the class. Others believe he is the best pure hitter overall."
"He hits line drives into the gaps and can also hit the ball over the fence with authority. Luciano is not the prototypical swing-and-miss power hitter and projects to be a solid middle-of-the-lineup hitter."
Here are a couple more from BA's Ben Badler in an interview with McCovey Chronicles discussing his own eyewitness impressions:
"...with Luciano putting on a huge show in BP with over-the-fence power to all fields and he performed well in games as well."
"He hit an opposite-field home run in that game; it was pretty incredible to see a 16 year old kid swinging a wood bat go oppo in a game like that."
"It's a powerful, explosive swing with good balance, good path that generates such easy power. Given the way he's built, I think that power is only going to tick up over the next few years."
So there you have it. It's pretty rare that you have a prospect with so much projection that you rank him in the top tier without seeing him play any pro games, but I think reading those scouting reports will convince you Marco Luciano is in that elite class. Now, just keep him away from bars in the DR and from glass tables!(References to Angel Villalona and Gustavo Cabrera, not to Marco).
It's too early for any stat lines on Marco Luciano, so we'll settle for $2.6 M, the amount of his signing bonus. Luciano was rated as the #2 international prospect in the 2018 signing class which opened July 2. He is the first international prospect since Lucius Fox to get a 7-figure bonus from the Giants because that signing cost them a 2 year penalty in which they could not spend more than $300 K on any one international prospect. I'm just going to quote Fangraphs scouting report verbatim:
"Luciano's broad, square, muscular shoulders look like they belong to a D1 high school football prospect. He has one of the better frames in the class and plenty of room to add power to a body that already produces a lot of it. Luciano has explosive hands and a natural uppercut swing. He hits many more balls out during BP than is typical for a hitter this age and has taken peers deep in games too. Luciano's feet and actions are workable on the infield but he struggles with throwing velocity and accuracy when he's forced to throw from a lower arm slot, as shortstops often are. If he can't correct it, he'll need to move to the outfield. Luciano's power separates him from most of the rest of the class and he's a potential star if he can stay at short."
I'll just add that in pictures and video, Luciano has huge hands that remind me of Willie Mays and long thin limbs with narrow hips that remind me of Hunter Pence. Then, of course there are the shoulders and I'm not sure where I've seen those before! Fangraphs gives him a + for Athleticism and a + for Frame.
I"ll add in some quotes from the MLB Pipeline scouting report:
"Scouts consider Luciano among the top overall hitters in the class. Others believe he is the best pure hitter overall."
"He hits line drives into the gaps and can also hit the ball over the fence with authority. Luciano is not the prototypical swing-and-miss power hitter and projects to be a solid middle-of-the-lineup hitter."
Here are a couple more from BA's Ben Badler in an interview with McCovey Chronicles discussing his own eyewitness impressions:
"...with Luciano putting on a huge show in BP with over-the-fence power to all fields and he performed well in games as well."
"He hit an opposite-field home run in that game; it was pretty incredible to see a 16 year old kid swinging a wood bat go oppo in a game like that."
"It's a powerful, explosive swing with good balance, good path that generates such easy power. Given the way he's built, I think that power is only going to tick up over the next few years."
So there you have it. It's pretty rare that you have a prospect with so much projection that you rank him in the top tier without seeing him play any pro games, but I think reading those scouting reports will convince you Marco Luciano is in that elite class. Now, just keep him away from bars in the DR and from glass tables!(References to Angel Villalona and Gustavo Cabrera, not to Marco).
Wednesday, January 2, 2019
DrB's 2019 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #2 Heliot Ramos
Heliot Ramos, OF. DOB: 9/7/1999. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 195 lbs. Drafted 2017 Round 1, #19 overall.
2018 A: .245/.313/.396, 24 2B, 8 3B, 11 HR, 8 SB, 6.5 BB%, 25.4 K%, 1.54 GB/FB, 535 PA.
I feel like there is a widespread perception that Heliot Ramos had a bad season in 2018. Maybe expectations were a bit irrationally exuberant after he dominated the AZL after the draft at age 17. But the AZL is a hitter's paradise in a hot, dry climate. It's based at the Giants training facility in Scottsdale which is more like a resort. All of the ballparks are within a 1 hour bus ride. It's a short season. Contrast that with Augusta, GA. I have relatives who live near Augusta. It's basically a sauna in the summer. Frequent rainouts. The SAL is scattered across multiple southeastern states. It's the quintessential minor league life with long bus rides and the works. On top of all that, Ramos was just 18 years old the entire season. The age police may say that's totally age appropriate for the league, but 18 year olds who can keep their head above water for a full season in A ball don't grow on trees. The Giants have had some pretty good prospects over the years who couldn't cut it in Augusta at age 19 or even 20. Think back to Christian Arroyo and Ryder Jones. Here is Pablo Sandoval's slash line from Augusta at age 19: .265/.309/.322. Miguel Cabrera reached the major leagues at age 20. Here is his Class A slash line at age 18(Midwest League): .268/.328/.382.
Here are my positives from Heliot Ramos' 2018: 1. 535 PA at age 18 on A ball is a huge achievement giving him a tremendous jumpstart in experience. 2. 36% XBH. Compare that with Miggy Cabrera's 26% at the same age, same level. 3. Lowered his K rate from 31% to 25% despite the much tougher competition and environment.
The only question I have is whether Heliot should repeat the level or be promoted to San Jose for 2019. I have gone back and forth on that one. I actually changed my mind while I researched and wrote this profile. When I comped his line with Pablo Sandoval and Miguel Cabrera and realized they were both promoted and did just fine, it was clear that Heliot should be promoted too. Recall also that Christian Arroyo was promoted to San Jose after washing out in Augusta and did just fine. He's young enough that repeating a level won't be the end of his career, but let him repeat at a higher level if that becomes necessary.
The longer term question about Heliot is if he can stick in CF. Scouts are divided on that. He may need to for the bat to play. I think he will gain power as he matures but will likely peak at about 20-25 dingers per season with more gap power than HR power. The challenge for him is avoiding the dreaded "tweener" label.
2018 A: .245/.313/.396, 24 2B, 8 3B, 11 HR, 8 SB, 6.5 BB%, 25.4 K%, 1.54 GB/FB, 535 PA.
I feel like there is a widespread perception that Heliot Ramos had a bad season in 2018. Maybe expectations were a bit irrationally exuberant after he dominated the AZL after the draft at age 17. But the AZL is a hitter's paradise in a hot, dry climate. It's based at the Giants training facility in Scottsdale which is more like a resort. All of the ballparks are within a 1 hour bus ride. It's a short season. Contrast that with Augusta, GA. I have relatives who live near Augusta. It's basically a sauna in the summer. Frequent rainouts. The SAL is scattered across multiple southeastern states. It's the quintessential minor league life with long bus rides and the works. On top of all that, Ramos was just 18 years old the entire season. The age police may say that's totally age appropriate for the league, but 18 year olds who can keep their head above water for a full season in A ball don't grow on trees. The Giants have had some pretty good prospects over the years who couldn't cut it in Augusta at age 19 or even 20. Think back to Christian Arroyo and Ryder Jones. Here is Pablo Sandoval's slash line from Augusta at age 19: .265/.309/.322. Miguel Cabrera reached the major leagues at age 20. Here is his Class A slash line at age 18(Midwest League): .268/.328/.382.
Here are my positives from Heliot Ramos' 2018: 1. 535 PA at age 18 on A ball is a huge achievement giving him a tremendous jumpstart in experience. 2. 36% XBH. Compare that with Miggy Cabrera's 26% at the same age, same level. 3. Lowered his K rate from 31% to 25% despite the much tougher competition and environment.
The only question I have is whether Heliot should repeat the level or be promoted to San Jose for 2019. I have gone back and forth on that one. I actually changed my mind while I researched and wrote this profile. When I comped his line with Pablo Sandoval and Miguel Cabrera and realized they were both promoted and did just fine, it was clear that Heliot should be promoted too. Recall also that Christian Arroyo was promoted to San Jose after washing out in Augusta and did just fine. He's young enough that repeating a level won't be the end of his career, but let him repeat at a higher level if that becomes necessary.
The longer term question about Heliot is if he can stick in CF. Scouts are divided on that. He may need to for the bat to play. I think he will gain power as he matures but will likely peak at about 20-25 dingers per season with more gap power than HR power. The challenge for him is avoiding the dreaded "tweener" label.
Tuesday, January 1, 2019
Scouting the 2019 Draft: Kameron Misner
Kameron Misner, OF, College(Missouri). DOB: 1/9/1998. B-L, T-L. 6'4", 220 lbs.
2017 College: .282/.360/.446, 12 2B, 3B, 7 HR, 17 SB, 9.39 BB%, 22.45 K%, 245 PA.
2017 New England Collegiate League: .378/.479/.652, 13 2B, 8 HR, 14 SB, 16.57 BB%, 11.83 K%, 169 PA.
2918 College: .360/.497/.576, 9 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 13 SB, 20.00 BB%, 16.25 K%, 160 PA.
MLB Pipeline states Kameron Misner has the "best all-around tools in the 2019 college crop..." Misner backs up the tools with on-field performance. He has impressive speed and athleticism for a guy his size. He's played mostly LF and 1B in college but has the arm to play RF and enough speed to play CF. On video, he has a short quick swing and appears to do a good job of keeping his elbows in. He may be flying under the radar a bit because his missed the last 2 months of 2018 as well as the 2018 summer leagues after breaking his foot on a foul ball. If he shows up healthy for his junior season and keeps on hitting, his stock could rise to the top 5. MLB Pipeline currently has him ranked #11 while Fangraphs left him completely off their board. I'm thinking that may be an oversight rather than intentional as several early mock drafts have him in the 10-19 range. My comps are Cody Bellinger or a lefty version of Evan White from last year's draft. Farhan Zaidi is very stats oriented but is also reputed to insist on tools, so I could see him really loving this kid.
*********************************************************************************
DrB's Updated 2019 Draft Board:
1. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, HS. 5-tool athlete with MLB bloodline who can stick at SS.
2. Adley Rutschman, C, College(Oregon St). Excellent catching prospect whose bat had a huge sophomore breakout.
3. CJ Abrams, SS, HS. 4+ tool prospect with best wheels in draft. Power lags a bit.
4. Shea Langeliers, C, College(Baylor). Solid catching prospect with potential for a plus bat.
5. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, College(Cal). Top college power bat in the draft. Numbers guys will like him better than the scouts.
6. Josh Jung, 3B, College(Texas Tech). Disciplined bat with power potential. Has arm to play 3B at highest level.
7. Kameron Misner, OF/1B, College(Missouri). Best all round tools among college draft prospects. Stock could rise if he continues to put up solid stats.
8. Riley Greene, OF, HS. Top HS bat in the draft with an advanced hit too with power. Lack of speed pus a lot of pressure on the bat.
9. Brennan Malone, RHP, HS. Ideal pitcher's size and frame with projectability in a fastball that already touches 97 MPH.
10. Graeme Stinson, LHP, College(Duke). Jumbo sized lefty with "plus-plus" slider. Low risk/high floor prospect, but I see him as a likely reliever in the pros.
11. Carter Stewart, RHP, JC. Has tools to be an ace. Will need to overcome health concerns after "failing" physical with Braves last year.
2017 College: .282/.360/.446, 12 2B, 3B, 7 HR, 17 SB, 9.39 BB%, 22.45 K%, 245 PA.
2017 New England Collegiate League: .378/.479/.652, 13 2B, 8 HR, 14 SB, 16.57 BB%, 11.83 K%, 169 PA.
2918 College: .360/.497/.576, 9 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 13 SB, 20.00 BB%, 16.25 K%, 160 PA.
MLB Pipeline states Kameron Misner has the "best all-around tools in the 2019 college crop..." Misner backs up the tools with on-field performance. He has impressive speed and athleticism for a guy his size. He's played mostly LF and 1B in college but has the arm to play RF and enough speed to play CF. On video, he has a short quick swing and appears to do a good job of keeping his elbows in. He may be flying under the radar a bit because his missed the last 2 months of 2018 as well as the 2018 summer leagues after breaking his foot on a foul ball. If he shows up healthy for his junior season and keeps on hitting, his stock could rise to the top 5. MLB Pipeline currently has him ranked #11 while Fangraphs left him completely off their board. I'm thinking that may be an oversight rather than intentional as several early mock drafts have him in the 10-19 range. My comps are Cody Bellinger or a lefty version of Evan White from last year's draft. Farhan Zaidi is very stats oriented but is also reputed to insist on tools, so I could see him really loving this kid.
*********************************************************************************
DrB's Updated 2019 Draft Board:
1. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, HS. 5-tool athlete with MLB bloodline who can stick at SS.
2. Adley Rutschman, C, College(Oregon St). Excellent catching prospect whose bat had a huge sophomore breakout.
3. CJ Abrams, SS, HS. 4+ tool prospect with best wheels in draft. Power lags a bit.
4. Shea Langeliers, C, College(Baylor). Solid catching prospect with potential for a plus bat.
5. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, College(Cal). Top college power bat in the draft. Numbers guys will like him better than the scouts.
6. Josh Jung, 3B, College(Texas Tech). Disciplined bat with power potential. Has arm to play 3B at highest level.
7. Kameron Misner, OF/1B, College(Missouri). Best all round tools among college draft prospects. Stock could rise if he continues to put up solid stats.
8. Riley Greene, OF, HS. Top HS bat in the draft with an advanced hit too with power. Lack of speed pus a lot of pressure on the bat.
9. Brennan Malone, RHP, HS. Ideal pitcher's size and frame with projectability in a fastball that already touches 97 MPH.
10. Graeme Stinson, LHP, College(Duke). Jumbo sized lefty with "plus-plus" slider. Low risk/high floor prospect, but I see him as a likely reliever in the pros.
11. Carter Stewart, RHP, JC. Has tools to be an ace. Will need to overcome health concerns after "failing" physical with Braves last year.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
