Thursday, December 20, 2018

Armchair GM: Trading Will Smith?

I think it's a generally accepted opinion that the Giants biggest need this offseason is to upgrade their offense, specifically their OF offense.  While Madison Bumgarner is often cited as their biggest trade chip, other teams appear to be as interested or more so in their surplus of LH relief pitchers.  The Giants have 2 of the better ones in baseball in Will Smith, who served as their Closer through much of last year, and Tony Watson, who was a reliable setup man.  In addition they have Ty Blach who was pretty good in a swingman role.  Steven Okert had a resurgent season in AAA and looked good in a SSS late season callup.  The enigmatic Josh Osich is also on the 40 man roster and is out of options but struggled again last season despite stuff that seems like it should get MLB hitters out.  On top of all that, the Giants added a lefty reliever through the Rule 5 Draft in Travis Bergen, who pitched at AA level last year. They also picked up another lefty reliever, Sam Moll, with AAA and MLB experience in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 Draft but don't have to keep him on either the 25 or 40 man rosters to keep him in the organization.  So that's a total of 6 lefty relievers on the 40 man roster and another on the AAA roster. Smith and Watson are entering the final season of their contracts.  Osich is out of options.  Bergen has to stay on the active roster or be offered back to the BJ's.  I am not sure about Okert's option status.

Enter the Cardinals into the rumor mill.  They reportedly consider 1B/OF Jose Martinez expendable after trading for Paul Goldschmidt and are reportedly interested in trading Martinez for Will Smith.  Martinez is a late bloomer who has mashed for the past two seasons for the Cardinals:

2017:  .309/.379/.518, 14 HR, 10.4 BB%, 19.5 K%, 307 PA.
2018:  .305/.364/.457, 30 2B, 17 HR, 8.3 BB%, 17.6 K%, 590 PA.

The rap on Martinez is poor fielding at both 1B and OF, but he reportedly has a strong throwing arm. Despite the poor fielding numbers, he was worth 1.6 and 2.3 fWAR in 2017 and 2018 respectively.

Now, it seems that one side or the other wants more in the trade than just a 1 for 1 of Martinez for Smith.  Some analysts think the Giants might want Tyler O'Neill who is younger, has more years of control and is a better defender in the OF instead of Martinez.  Here are O'Neill's numbers from last season:

AAA:  .311/.385/.693, 26 HR, 10.6 BB%, 24.9 K%, 273 PA.
MLB:  .254/.303/.500, 9 HR, 4.9 BB%, 40.1 K%, 142 PA.

As you can see, O'Neill hits for more power but has a higher K rate and a much shorter MLB track record than Martinez.

We also don't know that the Cardinals don't want more than Will Smith in return for Martinez.

Could the Giants get more for Smith by trading with another team?  The Brewers are probably out after acquiring Alex Claudio from the Rangers.  Almost every other contending team could use a good lefty reliever and it's too much to run down the whole list.  Other possibilities that come to mind are the Nationals who might be willing to trade Michael Taylor who is a superb defender but a questionable bat.  The Astros have not been willing to part with Kyle Tucker for JT Realmuto so it's doubtful they would give him up for a lefty reliever.  What about Derek Fisher a prospect with a lot tools and a high ceiling but who has struggle to find traction at the MLB level so far?  It seems like what the Cardinals can offer is more promising than either the Nationals or Astros.

So, you are the GM!  Do you pull the trigger on a Will Smith for Jose Martinez trade or hold out for Tyler O'Neill or keep shopping with other teams? Personally if a straight up Smith for Martinez trade is on the table, I'd do it.  Martinez may be 30 yo and a poor defender, but he's a proven MLB bat with 4 years of contract control left while Smith is due for free agency after the 2019 season. I might even be willing to include more in the deal if it's the Cardinals who want more.

23 comments:

  1. Belt saves an error a game scooping at 1st base, Martinez gets none of them.
    LF? Giants won in 2010 with Burrell -0.4 (Huff was -0.2 at 1B), in 2012 with Pence -0.4 in RF, and in 2014 with Morse -2.0 -- Martinez could bring back memories!
    Then the Red Sox won 2 of 3 in Dodgerland with another lead-gloved OFer named Martinez running back and forth between LF & RF depending on who was batting.
    It ain't pretty but it can be done....

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  2. I love the way Statcast breaks down outfielder catch probabilities. As a LF in 2017, Martinez had 22 opportunities and caught 4 of them... However, nearly half (10) of those chances were "5 stars," which means he probably never had a chance anyway. In 2018 as a RF, he caught 10 of 27 chances, with a much more even distribution of difficulty. There's no doubting he's a defensive liability, but his overall numbers don't differ that much from Matt Kemp, Jesse Winker, Melky Cabrera, or even Yasiel Puig. I don't love that he's already 30, but it's hard to say a right-handed hitter with his profile wouldn't be a solid boost to the lineup. As long as Zaidi brings in someone who is a no-doubt RF (Josh Reddick, maybe?), I think Martinez could be hidden just fine in LF... if it came down to it, I'd trade one year of Smith for 4 years of Martinez.

    Cove Chatter

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    1. I agree Cove - 1 year of Smith for 4 years of Martinez looks good on paper. Don't know what the Astros would take for Josh Reddick - Watson? Panik? but it's intriguing. With defensive speed in CF and RF Martinez could be 'hidden' in LF. I like his batting numbers better than Tyler O'Neil especially K rate -- maybe Belt could help him improve his BB%. Could be SFs #3 hitter: Duggar, high OBP RF, Martinez, Belt Posey, Crawford, Longoria, Panik. I want to see if Mac W (only one year younger) is back but on the other hand - here's a proven solution.

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    2. Has anyone got some ATT Park stats for Martinez? Will he hit HRs to left or fly out to center -- how did he play in the outfield against the Giants?

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  3. If I am Farhan; I go with my internal options for outfield, stay the course with our infield; look for more off the bench Panda etc.
    Get another starter; hope for a healthy year from the roster.
    Plan on making a run for the division.
    Concentrate on the 2019 draft.
    If the team; is out of contention by July 1 > then move to complete re build.
    I believe if healthy we can contend.
    I am against making deals for the sake of just making moves for optics.
    That's what I would do.

    Richard in Winnipeg

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    1. A proven power bat with reasonably low K rate in the middle of the order - that's pretty tempting. SP: I hope they get Kikuchi for some new blood on the mound. Cahill just went off the board to the Angels for 1 year $9M + incentives - same WAR as Holland so might have set the price for Derek. I think Holland on a 2-year $20M would be a good buy. If SF stocks up on LH starters it won't leave a hole if/when they trade Bumgarner. Worst case scenario in 2019 is Bumgarner keeps dropping in value for whatever reason. Best case scenario is he's 12-1 at the All-Star Break - that means either SF is contending (good) or you've got a VERY valuable trade piece (also good).

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    2. I have to say Richard, I'm more against watching the same group play mediocre (or worse) baseball for the third straight season...

      Cove Chatter

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    3. Cove, every team goes through injuries > would you be able to provide numbers for the Nl west of total player games lost to injuries through the 8 positions starting players and starting pitchers lost starts due to injury?
      I ask that as ; as mediocre might not define San Fran particularly last year!

      Richard in Winnipeg.

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    4. They were a little better than mediocre last year without the injuries but don't forget they don't have their best offensive player from last year, Andrew McCutchen, either.

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  4. The only OF on the Cardinals that interests me is Marcell Ozuna. Id rather give up more for a guy like Ozuna than a good player like Smith or Watson for Martinez or O’neill. If we are going to trade decent players we need to bring back the future. I don’t see Martinez or O’neill being the future except as short term band-aids. If we cannot get good future players who will be everyday players for years to come I would rather hold onto Smith and Watson until the trade deadline where we might get better value for a competing team. Smith might be someone to get a compensatory pick if we just keep him.

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    1. 1. Ozuna will be a free agent after this season so I'm not sure what "the future" is you are referring to. 2. Will Smith is not going to be given a 1 yr/$18 M qualifying offer so I'm not sure what compensatory pick you are referring too.

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  5. Well never mind - Cards have signed Andrew Miller as LHP in pen. Maybe they want Will Smith too but hey - maybe we'll swap him for D Santana - OR follow Richard from Winnipeg and go with the OF we got and see what happens.

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  6. Yes, this signing might help move the left handed relief market along, so that teams that lost out on Miller will either look at signing Zac Britton, or trading with the Giants for Will Smith. These GMs are making moves like they're stuck in molasses.

    LG

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  7. There needs to be a clear commitment to either winning this year or rebuilding. So far it looks like its a rebuild so any player they acquire for Smith or others needs to be a part of the rebuild plans. This is where Farhan needs to earn his money and get back young controllable talent instead of a 30 year old DH who wont help make a big enough difference this year and wont be a factor in 2-3 years.

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    1. What signs of a rebuild have you seen so far?

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    2. True Dr B - it just looks like a depth/platoon build. Just imagine Posey with his power back, Mac W hitting like May last year, Belt OBP .500 and 30HRs, Panda/Longoria platooning OPS .800+ at 3B, Samardjiza and Bumgarner throwing 200 innings with ERA under 3.00 - these guys are all still here. Cueto returns in September and on top of all that we've got one of the league's best and deepest bullpens. Come on!

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    3. That's a whole lot of things that have to go right at the same time. I think they can compete in 2019 but I also think they have to add at least 1 proven OF bat and 1 proven SP to put it within reason.

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    4. Not that Keith Law knows everything, but here's an exchange from yesterday's Klawchat:

      Arnold: The Giants selected two players in the Rule 5 draft, Drew Ferguson and Travis Bergen. Is either of them likely to ever be a useful major league piece?

      Keith Law: Nope.

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    5. Signs of a rebuild: no major or miner acquisitions to help bolster the team for 2019, talk of trading major pieces (our ace and closer), 2 rule 5 draft picks for the first time ever, have I missed anything? I guess a better question is what signs have you seen that tell you they arent rebuilding because so far that is the only impression I’m getting. Except of course the words that came out of Larry Baers mouth stating that the Giants would never “rebuild”

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    6. Like, maybe if you believe that letting it all die on the vine is the first step in rebuilding....

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  8. Reds put out 10's of millions of payroll for 2019 3-star splash and ho-hum Kyle Farmer (control through 2024)giving up 2 prospects RHP Josiah Gray #20 and MI Jeter Downs #7.
    Dodgers get payroll space, shed some 1-year contracts, spread the acquisition cost of Homer Bailey over a couple years, and maybe lose a distraction.
    With or without Farhan, Dogs know what their doing -- win for them getting space for the Big Nat.
    Possible a pyrrhic win for Reds to get out of the cellar in 2019 but lose some potential.
    OTOH, July flips?

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