Saturday, December 8, 2018

Scouting the Offseason: Winter Meetings Preview

In the last several years of the Sabean/Evans administration, the Giants followed a fairly predictable offseason course.  They needed starting pitching?  How do you like Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija?  They needed a Closer?  Well, dang! Here's the guy we should have traded for at the deadline last year, Mark Melancon!  Third base?  Hey!  We can get Evan Longoria and still stay under the CBT threshold!  Outfielder?  Andrew McCutchen would look mighty nice in a Giants uniform!

This season is different and for more reasons than a new GM.  The Giants have some clear needs but also a strong feeling that the old approach of throwing money and hoping it will plug holes has reached a saturation point and continuing to do that will just dig the hole deeper.  The Giants need to plug holes to be competitive but they also need to find ways to upgrade the overall talent in the organization.  They need to get younger, more athletic, more powerful.  They probably can't do all that in one offseason.  It's debatable whether they can do it at all without a complete teardown and rebuild which according to Managing Partner Larry Baer is "not in our DNA."

A big question none of us know is what players currently in the organization does Farhan Zaidi believe are untouchable?  Does he believe any of them are?  The one big trade chip from the MLB roster is Madison Bumgarner.  A couple of years ago, ever trading him would have been unthinkable. Now there is some question whether they can get enough in return for him to make it worthwhile.  The 2 big trade chips on the farm are Heliot Ramos and Joey Bart.  For a team that needs to get younger, more athletic and stronger, they should be untouchable, but they aren't guys that Zaidi drafted, so does he value them as much as the previous regime and most of us do?  

Baseball's Winter Meetings are really obsolete affairs in terms of player transactions.  With modern communication and travel options, there is really no need for all of MLB management to gather in one physical location to acquire players and strike deals.  Last year, not a whole lot happened at the Winter Meetings and most of the offseason action occurred much later.  This year, a whole lot of action has already gone down.  Given the state of the Giants and how fast the hot stove heated up this year, it would be disappointing if Zaidi returns at the end of the week empty handed.  It just feels like he needs to do something fairly dramatic and different than methodically plugging holes.

Will he come away with a franchise player in Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?  Will he get an offer he can't refuse for Madison Bumgarner?  Will he go for volume and depth like he did in LA?

We'll be writing up Hot Stove Updates with as close to instant analysis as we can get while writing around a full work schedule, so stay tuned!

15 comments:

  1. I am very doubtful we could get anything of value for MadBum that is MLB ready. So why trade him now? I think the trade deadline is a safer bet because everybody knows Madison’s playoff experience. His experience may be worth more than his regular season performance in 2019. Even at the trade deadline a team in the hunt most likely wont give MLB ready talent away because they may be using that talent in their roster. Is it possible we use Madison to eat one of our bad contracts? Like hey Yankees you can have him but you must absorb some (not all) of Longo’s contract. Probably not, but desperation can do some strange things for teams wanting that trophy. Some teams would rather throw money away than prospects. That is a long shot so would it be better to just keep him all year and land draft compensation?

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    1. With the cost of pitching what it is, I think they can get at least 3 players including 1 MLB ready prospect. I would say the Paxton deal is fairly close. But the Giants are in a position where they don't have to trade him yet, so they can hold out for the deal they want.

      I don't see them using Bummy to dump a bad contract. It would be a big mistake if they did. They have to get talent back for him. In fact, I would not be shocked if they took on a bad contract or two in order to essentially buy talent.

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    2. The Brewers, Phillies and Yankees are all still in the market for a frontline pitcher. The Cubs should be. The Astros might be depending on how their FA situations end up. Even the Reds are feeling their oats and making noise about adding pitching!

      The market for frontline pitchers is down to Charlie Morton who seems quite picky about where he goes, Dallas Keuchal who is going to cost at least 4 years/$60 M and Zack Greinke and his monster contract. As this Hot Stove burns on, Bummy for 1 year/$12 M is going to look better and better to some of those teams.

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    3. The Dodger resurgent blue print was to spend wildly to improve near term performance, then fill in from their farm system as the overspend fell culminating last year when they got back below the CBT threshold.
      That wasn't Zaidi's plan but he oversaw the end of it.
      The Giants have a ton of money available if they choose to spend it. What's OPM for, anyway? Spend it!
      History says having a very competitive team on the field will keep the park full to capacity to (help) pay for the overspend.
      The Giants should not, at this point, use prospects to induce anyone to take one of their bad contracts but let them disappear over time as they began to do next year. Keep the prospects!
      Committed payroll falls drastically from 2019 to 2023: $147.7M $123.9M $93.1M $22.67M $5M.
      They "could" spend like crazy this year to get in the 10-team race to the NL playoffs, but need to be careful not to lose too many draft picks for QO players -- unless they get a bunch of them for Bumgarner to offset. They will ultimately get one for him with a QO for 2020.
      If the Giants spend $300M plus for Harper, it would behoove them to spend another thousand or so for some chain link fence to cut off triples alley, also reducing the need for 2 center fielders. Harper could handle a normal RF.
      Change the face of a team plus where they play!
      A third benefit: a new place for the bullpens and something close for the far-away fans.
      And, add some more seats! Cantilever the RF bleachers out over the arches, add ground level "dugout" seats where the bull pens are now, and maybe add some more over the top of the new bullpens.

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    4. Right on with taking on the bad contract or two to get talent - they might snag farther back talent that way (low-A/rookie ball). Somebody like Jason Kipnis might be a candidate, Cleveland may not want to drop one of their pitchers if they don't get offers they like.

      The MadBum scenario that makes sense to me is to pitch into the season, the past 2 years stats and velocity ratings may be effected by the dirtbike and broken finger injuries. A full contract year push may produce a different pitcher, definitely one with a chip on the shoulder. Sabean et al always liked contract year players, I don't think that will change much.

      Looked up the new CBA/Draft pick comp - getting a player in the Comp round 30s isn't that big a prize. And that goes away if 50MM contract isn't signed, so there isn't as much value there as before.

      Lots of Josh Hamilton rumors. Seems like a ok signing, although lately the over 30 player profile has been pretty brutal with regression. Always liked his position versatility but also the G's need to get younger. Seems like taking a shot on the Dodgers Rule 5 poach Drew Jackson would be cheaper acquisition with more upside, along with the risk of no proven mlb bat.

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    5. Unless they sign or trade for 5 MLB players during the Winter Meetings, it seems like the Giants have things lined up to take a shot at somebody in the Rule 5 Draft. I'm thinking it's probably Drew Jackson they are targeting.

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    6. Whatever, the Giants should NOT trade within the National League!
      They finished 12th last year, 12th of 15 in the NL, lost in space!
      They need to be in contention to coax butts in the seats to pay for their games.
      17+ games out of the WC. they aren't going to help themselves by trading within the league unless one of the "good" teams (Cubs, Dodgers,??) overwhelms them with overspend.
      The goal in 2019 should be, IMHO, get to the playoffs or stay in contention well into September, keep us restless interested, sell their overpriced tickets, and $20 beers. Give us a glimmer of hope. Cheers for beers!
      There are hungry teams in the AL although the Mariners aren’t one of them any more other than a prospect laden 3-team deal where they give up Haniger, not gonna happen, and we’re probably better off with the prospects.
      Don’t give up prospects! Too many have come and gone. Buy the pieces to contend, don’t trade the few pale blue chips in the system.
      Spend, spend, spend, but not for QOs except maybe Harper. No “can’t stay healthy” risks like Brantley or Pollock. Get studs not duds!
      This ain’t Rocket Science, BB 101, what you get is worth more to you than what you spend.

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    7. Well, there you go! You make it sound so....easy.

      There are actually more teams in the NL that appear to be good fits as potential trading partners than in the AL. Phillies, Brewers, Braves, Cubs and Padres all have needs that potentially align with the Giants and surpluses at positions the Giants should be looking for.

      Yeah, it's not rocket science, but there are 29 other GM's with teams of analysts and scouts who are all trying to accomplish the same thing and they are all darn good at what they do. You can find synergistic needs but it's almost impossible to consistently "win" trades these days. The players all have agents who not only know what their player is worth in terms of production but know what other teams are offering, which GM's are blind to due to anti-collusion rules. Yeah, acquiring talent and roster building is hard as hell. There is a reason why there's just 30 guys doing it and we aren't among them.

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    8. Better to move now on Bum and get what we can before his value declines even more, No One on this Team is untouchable!

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    9. No, not rocket science, which depends on mathematics, laws of nature, probability distributions, and knowable material tolerances. Baseball trading involves predictions about human performance and development, with far greater unknowability. It’s harder than rocket science, with a failure rate way beyond anything that would be tolerable by NASA. Look at DrB’s draft analyses, anyone who doubts its extreme difficulty; or look at the analytic attempts of pro pundits for the media, or more laughably, of swaggering fans on, say, the McC blog.

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  2. Tyson Ross gets 1 year $6M ($5.75M plus achievable 250K bonus).
    Fair comp to Derek Holland, at least a floor.
    Will Holland get 2 yrs, $15M? (MLBTR prediction, which have been low this year)
    Would Giants pay that?
    Haha, do it quick! Something the Giants don't appear to be doing!

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    1. Gotta say, that's a bit more than I expected Tyson Ross to get.

      I would say 2 years/$15 M must be Derek Holland's absolute floor after that.

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  3. Giants claim outfielder Mike Gerber off waivers.
    Did they see something that 14 AL teams and 3 NL teams didn't?
    As Krukow says, Looks pretty good from here!

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  4. i see the giants shopping the bargain bin in winter meetings

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