Monday, December 17, 2018

Down on the Farm: Community Ranking

So, now that we're downstream from the Winter Meetings, I'm turning my attention to the annual Top 50 Prospects list.  I think it's pretty clear there is a top tier of Joey Bart, Heliot Ramos and Marco Luciano.  We can discuss exact order, but those 3 are a long ways ahead of #4 and I think it's pretty clear that's the order.  #4 is a toughie though.  Once you traverse the yawning gap from 3 to 4, you run into a huge clump of second tier prospects from multiple positions and up and down the entire farm system.  I thought I would enlist the community to help sort it out.  Do you favor prospects who are already on the 40 man roster?  Do you favor young guys with tools down in the lower minors?  Here are some names that come to mind listed roughly by level of play:

Aramis Garcia, C
Chris Shaw, OF
Mike Gerber OF
Abiatal Avelino, IF
Ray Black, RHP
Ryan Howard IF
CJ Hinojosa IF
Shaun Anderson RHP
Logan Webb RHP
Drew Ferguson OF
Travis Bergen LHP
Garrett Williams LHP
Jalen Miller, 2B
Heath Quinn, OF
Melvin Adon, RHP
Jacob Gonzalez 3B
Manuel Geraldo SS
Sandro Fabian OF
David Villar, 3B
Alexander Canario OF
Gregory Santos, RHP
Juan De Paula, RHP
Camilo Doval, RHP
Sean Hjelle, RHP
Diego Rincones, OF

That's probably enough.  Who would be your top 5 out of that bunch?  If you want to rank all of them, that's OK too.  Please explain your answers.  Where does Tyler Beede fit in, if at all?

22 comments:

  1. This is the great challenge of ranking prospects! I'm not sure there is a right or wrong way to go about it, and as you always remind folks in your yearly ranking, the numbers shouldn't be something to get hung up on. I would say Shaw & Garcia deserve a spot in that 2nd tier. Despite their obvious flaws, each showed some potential at the highest level. Anderson probably needs to be there, as does Logan Webb. After that, I think it's really a toss up based on personal preference. Hjelle gets a lot of love from some sites, not much from others. Santos & Canario look pretty impressive for their age. De Paula got a top 5 ranking in the NY-Penn League. It's tough!

    Here's my "next 5" Up
    4. Shaun Anderson = The future's game selection opened my eyes. Potential for him to be a RHP version of Andrew Suarez?
    5. Logan Webb = I don't think he's far off from being the Giants next big pitching prospect. Just needs to sustain his AA numbers again this year.
    6. Chris Shaw = Hard to rank him much higher with his defense & strikeouts, but we saw the power is real, & probably best in the system.
    7. Gregory Santos = I think he gets ignored some, but he's already accomplished quite a bit at 19 years old. Hopefully no long-lasting effects from the concussion.
    8. Aramis Garcia = We pretty much know his game, but when a guy gets promoted and responds like he did last year, that's worth a boost in the rankings for me. There are worse things than a steady backup MLB catcher.

    Hope this helps. Looking forward to your list!

    Cove Chatter

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  2. I will have four in my top five.

    Melvin Adon, RHP
    Shaun Anderson RHP
    Logan Webb RHP
    Travis Bergen LHP

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    Replies
    1. So I take it you wouldn't have Ramos or Luciano even in your top 5? Can't say I agree with that take.

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    2. I meant top five from the list. A you said top three is well separated rom the rest.

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    3. OK, I'm still a bit confused. Is there someone I didn't list who you would put in there?

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  3. 4. Logan Webb
    5. Chris Shaw
    6. Gregory Santos
    7. Aramis Garcia
    8. Alexander Canario

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  4. Like CC I'd rank Anderson and Webb pretty high. Its just shuffling deck chairs but I'd put it Anderson-Webb-Shaw-Garcia and round out the top 10 with Canario (very exciting but want to see him in full season before too much hype), Hjelle, Santos.

    Tyler Beede to me drops to low 20s. That's about where Chris Stratton went after struggling to break through, and he hasn't really done anything different.

    Ramblings:
    Stateside debut I look forward to: Luis Toribio
    Sleeper RH RP: John Russell has advanced to High-A, 90 IP, 5.6 H/9, 11.5 K/9 and 4.11 K/BB. 16th rounder in 2017 out of UConn.
    Aaron Bond as a sleeper?
    Jalen Miller is an interesting one... the stat line isn't that great, but he did hit for power (14 HRs), stayed healthy (led the entire Gints minors in PAs), and will be in Richmond for a big test as a 21/22 year old with athletic tools.

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  5. It’s Logan Webb right? He’s literally the only guy where you can squint your eyes and see a front end starter a la Matt Cain. With his innings limit over this year I can see him jumping all the way to #2 on our list as a 50FV starter who is knocking on the door.

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    Replies
    1. Oh, I don't know about that. If we are squinting here, I can easily see Melvin Adon and Gregory Santos having higher ceilings than Webb. But I agree, Webb is currently a much more complete prospect than either Adon or Santos.

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  6. If you favor guys who are better than 50-50 to see some 25-man time this year, with the exception of Howard and Hinojosa, the rest of your "top" eleven above are all likely to see some MLB time this year:
    Aramis Garcia, C
    Chris Shaw, OF
    Mike Gerber OF
    Abiatal Avelino, IF
    Ray Black, RHP
    Ryan Howard IF
    Logan Webb RHP
    Drew Ferguson OF
    Travis Bergen LHP

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    Replies
    1. Proximity is only one factor to consider. If a guy has a 100% chance of appearing in an MLB game this season but also a 100% chance to never get regular playing time then he wouldn't be much of a prospect, right?

      So, if you think Mike Gerber is a lock to get at least 10 MLB PA's this season, great. But convince me he also has at least a 50% chance of at least 600(equivalent of 1 full season as a starter) over the course of his MLB career.

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    2. Gerber's got 47 MLB PAs at 25 yo, played >100 innings in Detroit's outfield errorlessly but unspectacularly (a third of them in CF).
      IF he can stay healthy and cut down on his Ks, he could get to 600 PAs.
      He's not a great fit for AT&T but Zaidi likes him, and he's not just a corner OFer which SF is not so long on.
      I'd make a 50-50 bet on his getting to 600 PA before the "young studs" whoever they are arrive!
      BTW, his Marcels projection is fairly comparable to Shaw and Williamson.
      Fabian, Canario, and Rincones are so young, and Heath Quinn has to stay healthy.
      Drew Ferguson may be a better prospect than Gerber but Gerber's played MLB.
      3 of them (Mac, Gerber, Ferguson, Slater, Duggar, Shaw) have to succeed unless Zaidi pulls a rabbit out of the hat and he may run out of rabbits.
      Is either Pollach or Brantley a game changer?
      Harper is.

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    3. I like Pollock a lot. Much better fit for AT&T Park than Harper and it's not like Harper has been injury free in his career.

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  7. Tried not to look at other's rankings..but the next 5 for me. and a few of the guys I watched play in Richmond last year are the following:

    4. Anderson
    5. Webb
    6. Adon (his stuff and perfromance in the AFL after being converted to reliever is too much to ignore
    7. Garcia
    8. Canario (Just guessing here)
    9. Ray Black ( I know age and health are a question but if he can stay healthy)
    10. Chris Shaw (Not convinced but power hard to deny)
    11. Heath Quinn (REally like the way he came back last year--Average and Power)
    12. Jalen Miller
    13. Jacob Gonzales - Dont want to forget this guy..tailed off big time in the 2nd half last year..but before that had player well..has the size and pedigree
    14. Intrigued by all of Rincones, Villar and Bond ..hoepfully the hitting and power (for the latter two) will keep playing as they move up

    SteveVA

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    Replies
    1. I'd probably put Ryan Howard in somewhere above #14, though.

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    2. Q: Is Ray Black still a prospect? He might have logged too much time on the roster?

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  8. Hey Dr. B..Yeah..I fell asleep on Howward..saw him enough in Richmond..a very, very solid all around player..Will definitelty be a MLer..Probably a Utility type but possibly a Matt Duffy??..I just dont have a good feel for Santos..I know he was impressive in his shrt SF stint before the head shot injury...I just want to see some more.......Just have a big soft spot for Ray Black and his amazing stuff..been through alot..

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  9. Top 5 outside of your top 3.
    1. Logan Webb (You saw this one before a lot off us)
    2. Melvin Adon ( As an RP, Doc) :)
    3. Heath Quinn
    4. Alexander Canario
    5. Gregory Santos
    Garret Williams easily makes this list if he bounces back and becomes more accurate with his pitches. I like Diego Rincones a lot too. Maybe Fabian, but his K% and his BB% is kind of worrisome.

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  10. Other than With almost-there major league skills and potential starter level, short of 5-tool can't miss (Ramos, Bart, Luciano, ?), I'd put proximity at the top, obviously not the only criteria. Good performers who have made it "out of A" are valuable but still far, as in years, from making it, many a slip 'twixt ...
    Even Eloy Jimenez has regressed to a "fringy left fielder" suitable for AL only. Would you bet your best prospect on Vlad Jr? Probably, but he's only 19 and projects to the AL also.

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  11. I would go with the following in no particular order:

    Gary Brown
    Roger Kieschnick
    Angel Villalona
    Thomas Neal


    Am I close? LOL

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