Madison Bumgarner's trade market got a boost today when top pitching free agent Patrick Corbin did not sigh with the Yankees or Phillies. Instead, he went to the Nationals who were willing to commit to a 6'th year as in 6 years/$140 M. Now, Corbin had an excellent season last year, but if the Nationals want to invest in a 29 yo pitcher with declining velocity and an increasing reliance on the slider, hey, go for it! I'm just happy the Giants aren't on the hook for that!
Speaking of the Giants....There is a fairly steep drop-off between Corbin and the next best lefty starter on the market. Dallas Keuchal had 1 near-ace season, but has failed to duplicate it. The Yankees are said to still be in the market for a front end lefty SP and the Phillies definitely are. So, who has a low cost front end lefty SP to trade? That would be the Giants. With Corbin off the market and the teams most analysts think might want to trade for Bum still presumably in the market, well, Bum's trade value just went up. Not sure how much it went up, but it went up. That is reason enough to be happy for this signing.....and that Corbin won't be pitching for an NL West team!
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The Yanks #2 prospect according to mlb.com is Jonathan Loaisiga - originally signed by the G's out of Nicaragua, was injured and released. I wouldn't want to give up the promise of a MadBum comeback for him, and who knows what the Yanks would want for one year of control. Its a tough spot to be in, Zaidi has to hold fast for multiple good prospects.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely nice to get Corbin out of the NL West. That might just be a 3 win pickup.
Loaisiga has a scary injury history. What about a package of Loaisiga, Clint Frazier and Deivi Garcia for MadBum? Frazier gives you one of your corner OF's, Loaisiga is MLB ready and Garcia looks like a fast mover. Both Loaisiga and Garcia are undersized with questionable durability but could have good enough stuff to have Timmy-like careers.
DeleteThe Yankees might want to include Sonny Gray in a trade for Bumgarner. Soemthing like Gray, Frazier and Abreu or Garcia.
DeleteThat is the sort of package that would be "acceptable" - and I bet the Yankees hang up the phone. Philly's prospects down from the first few don't excite much to be honest, and I doubt they give up Sixto Sanchez, Adonis Medina, Alec Bohm or Adam Hasleley.
DeleteOne thing looking at both those teams you see a lot of IFA guys doing well. That is where the Giants haven't really locked in, its the best spot to improve immediately.
The Giants can afford to hold out for their asking price because keeping Bum is not a terrible option.
DeleteAgree the Giants need to do better in the IFA market. Maybe now that MLB(and apparently law enforcement) has cracked down on some cheaters and the penalties for blowing past the cap have been tightened, they will do better. 2018 looks very promising.
Maybe if they can get an extra prospect by taking Sonny Gray. Otherwise, I say do Gray in a separate deal.
DeleteTrading Bumgarner would shake up those who still believe that the Giants can compete in 2019.
ReplyDeleteHow 'bout trading him to NYY for Gray AND the prospects that Seattle would take for Haniger? Even if SF had to throw in an OFer not named Duggar?
I don't believe that keeping Bumgarner is a requirement for competing in 2019.
DeleteMaybe to compete to get to the playoffs, but, history would suggest Bumgarner is a requirement to win the WS!
DeleteFor argument's sake, say that the Marlins, Pirates, Reds, D'backs, and Pads are not going to make the playoffs.
Certainly four in the East, three in the Central, and LAD in the West are going after the flags plus whatever Col and SF can do to hang in there as seeds 9 and 10.
Is it honestly realistic?
If there was EVER a time to sell HIGH, IT IS NOW! Trader Jerry and Mike Hazen have it right: at least 8 teams in the NL and 6-8 in the AL think they can win and are spending and trading to do it.
If the Price Is right, trade anyone 29 or over (without a no-trade).
I believe several teams who Bum did not play for have won the WS during his career.
DeleteOops, I meant the Giants may compete without Bum for the playoffs, but, for them, they would need him to win the WS -- kinda tongue in cheek...
DeleteOK, we like tongue in cheek here. Sometimes it doesn't come through in writing.
DeleteGoldschmidt’s move from our division (!) into NL Central might prod Milwaukee, now that the Cards as well as the Cubs can threaten them, to look still harder for strong starting pitching at a cost they can afford. That too might heighten the trade market for Bumgarner, even as a rental to match StL having the rental of Goldschmidt.
ReplyDeleteWith all of these big money, long term commitments facing teams looking to land a difference making arm, I think it is likely that someone is going to step up and meet the Giants demands, whatever those demands are. A one-year, low cost deal for a pitcher with fantastic big-game pedigree is going to look very good to someone with big postseason plans.
ReplyDeleteMy call is the Giants find a trade partner and make a deal for Bumgarner before Christmas, and I am betting the return is better than most expect.
Time will tell.
WOW,is this a HOT market!
ReplyDeleteSt Louis pay a bundle for Gold-schmidt -- is a challenge to Cubs & Brewers in the Cards for the Central?
Nats send trucks of bucks to the TOP pitcher screaming BEST big 3.
Mets/Phils/Braves surely to answer.
With 7 teams aiming for 4 slots, finishing 2nd in the West is no guarantee, is winning the West a Giant wish?
As AZ throws in the towel, will the Pads and Rox join the auction to challenge in the West?
Only the "shadow" knows !!!!!!!!!!!!
DeleteAll of these major moves - Paxton, Segura, Eovaldi, Goldschmidt, ect. - ahead of the Winter Meetings is great news for the Giants. Lots of teams with big postseason plans may feel the need to make a big move. The Giants are going to get a bigger return on a Bumgarner trade than anyone thought possible.
ReplyDelete