Hot Stove Update: Mariners and Mets In A Blockbuster

Trader Jerry is back at it and pulled off a blockbuster trade with the Brodie Van Wagenen the new Mets GM.  Here's the deal:  M's send 2B Robinson Cano, RHP Edwin Diaz and $20 M to the Mets and receive OF Jay Bruce, RHP Anthony Swarzak, OF Jarred Kelenic, RHP Justin Dunn and RHP Gerson Bautista.  I agree with Craig Edwards of Fangraphs.  This is best analyzed by breaking it town into two separate trades:  1.  Cano and $20 M for Bruce and Swarzak.  2.  Diaz for Kelenic, Dunn and Baustista.  So lets get to it!

Trade #1:

Robinson Cano:  Cano is a big star player who is in the middle of a very large contract of 10 years/$240 M.  Cano has been terrific for the Mariners over the past 5 seasons posting fWARs of 5.6, 2.8, 6.2, 3.2 and 2.9 for a value of $198.7 M, or $78.7 M of surplus value.  He still played at a high level while on the field in 2018 putting up his 2.9 fWAR in just a little over half season worth of PA's.  He missed a big chunk of the season for a hand injury and a PED suspension(furosemide/Lasix, a diuretic).  The problem with the rest of his contract is it is for 5 years/$120 M and he is 36 years old making it very unlikely that the second half will be as productive  as the first and unlikely it will be close to break-even for the team.  What make this even more problematic for the Mets is they already have a young, cost-controlled 2B, Jeff McNeil, who put up 2.7 fWAR in 2018.  The reported plan is to move McNeil to 3B.  One more tidbit:  Mets GM Van Wagenen was Cano's agent who negotiated the original contract with the Mariners.

Jay Bruce:  Bruce is well known to most serious baseball fans.  He is a slugging RF who struggles on defense. He has a 3-true outcomes type of hitter who is highly dependent on dingers for his value.  He is coming off a terrible season which was shortened by a hip injury.  He has posted just one fWAR greater than 0.4 in the past 4 seasons.  He is one year into a 3 year/$39 M contract.  It is unclear how much of that total will be assumed by the Mariners.

Anthony Swarzak:  Swarzak is a relief pitcher also coming off a terrible season in which he posted an ERA of 6.15(although his xFIP was just 4.33).  He has 1 yr/$8 M left on a 2 year contract.

Summary:  If you count the Bruce and Swarzak contracts as sunk costs and add in the $20 M cash, the M's are giving between $54 M and $57 M in salary relief to the Mets making it a net of approximately $65 M of cost for the rest of Cano's contract or approximately $13 M per year through age 41 in 2023.  While Cano may be worth that an more for the first couple of seasons, the Mets are still likely to be underwater with it by the end of the contract.  Add in that they already had a pretty good 2B in McNeil and it's hard to justify this additional commitment.  They might have been just as well or better off simply releasing Bruce and Swarzak and eating the $35 M.  As for the M's, this part of the deal likely makes them worse in the short term but relieves them of a significant long term cost. They do still have Dee Gordon who can now return to his established position at 2B, unless they find a trading partner for Gordon.  Mariners win this part of the trade mainly due to the longterm salary relief.

Trade #2:

Edwin Diaz:  Diaz was the best Closer in MLB in 2018.  Better yet, his contract is controlled for 4 more years and he is not eligible for arbitration until 2020.

Jarred Kelenic:  #6 overall draft pick in 2018.  I really like him as a prospect and would not have been unhappy if the Giants took him at #3 overall.  He got off to a nice start to his pro career:

2018 R:  .253/.350/.431, 8 2B, 4 3B, 5 HR, 11 SB, 11.0 BB%, 19.5 K%, 200 PA.
2018 R;  .413/.451/.609, 2 2B, 2 3B, HR, 4 SB, 7.9 BB%, 21.6 K%, 51 PA.

He looks poised to move rapidly but realistically likely won't reach the majors before 2021.

Justin Dunn:  23 yo #19 overall draft pick in 2016.  Reportedly has a 4 pitch arsenal.

2018 A+:  2-3, 2.36, 45.2 IP, 10.05 K/9, 2.96 BB/9.
2018 AA:  6-5, 4.22, 89.2 IP, 10.54 K/9, 3.71 BB/9.

Ceiling is likely a #3 SP in MLB.  He could make his MLB debut as early as midseason 2019.

Gerson Bautista:  Will turn 24 yo on 5/31/2019.  He's a hard throwing relief pitcher who doesn't always know where the ball is going.

2018 AA:  1-0, 4.82, 9.1 IP, 14.46 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.
2018 AAA:  3-1, 5.22, 39.2 IP, 12.25 K/9, 4.08 BB/9, 3 Saves.
2018 MLB:  0-1, 12.46, 4.1 IP, 6.23 K/9, 10.38 BB/9.

Ceiling is MLB Closer but has considerable work to do on his control/command to reach it.

Summary:  By trading both Diaz and Colome in the past 2 days, the Mariners signal that they are in full teardown mode rather than re-tooling.  I am not convinced that is the direction they should go, but if it is, they got a very nice haul of prospects in return for a volatile asset.  Short term win for the Mets, long term win for the M's.  Let's put it this way:  I would be only slightly disappointed if the Giants got this return for Madison Bumgarner.  I really like Kelenic as a prospect.