Tuesday, December 25, 2018

Down on the Farm: DrB's Preliminary 2019 Top 50 Giants Prospects

Hey team!  Hope everybody had a wonderful Christmas Day.  When I first stared my annual Top 50 Giants Prospects many years ago, my big goal was secrecy until the day it was unveiled.  I've gradually incorporated more community feedback into making the list.  The last couple of years, I've put up a preliminary list and used the feedback to produce a better final list.  Here is my 2019 PRELIMINARY list.  I welcome questions, comments and suggestions.  I will definitely take all into into due consideration when making up the final list which I plan to put out New Year's Eve or New Year's Day.

1.  Joey Bart, C.
2.  Heliot Ramos, OF
3.  Marco Luciano, SS
4.  Logan Webb, RHP
5.  Melvin Adon, RHP
6.  Gregory Santos, RHP
7.  Shaun Anderson, RHP
8.  Aramis Garcia, C
9.  Chris Shaw, LF
10.  Ryan Howard, IF
11.  Drew Ferguson, OF
12.  Travis Bergen, LHP
13.  Garrett Wiliams, LHP
14.  David Villar, 3B
15.  Alexander Canario, OF
16.  Jalen Miller, 2B
17.  Heath Quinn, OF
18.  Sean Hjelle, RHP
19.  Jose Marte, RHP
20.  Jacob Gonzalez, 3B
21.  Sandro Fabian, OF
22.  Manuel Geraldo, SS
23.  Diego Rincones, OF
24.  Juan DePaula, RHP
25.  Camilo Doval, RHP
26.  Seth Corry, LHP
27.  Jacob Wong, RHP
28.  CJ Hinojosa, IF
29.  Tyler Beede, RHP
30.  Abiatal Avelino, SS
31.  Mike Gerber, OF
32.  Jacob Heyward, OF
33.  Tyler Herb, RHP
34.  Peter Maris, IF
35.  Sam Wolff, RHP
36.  Patrick Ruotolo, RHP
37.  Carlos Sano, RHP
38.  Johneshwy Fargas, OF
39.  Bryce Johnson, OF
40.  Chase Johnson, RHP
41.  Brandon Van Horn, SS
42.  DJ Myers, RHP
43.  Kelvin Beltre, IF
44.  JJ Santa Cruz, LHP
45.  Orlando Garcia, 2B
46.  Norwith Gudino, RHP
47.  Garrett Cave, RHP
48.  Solomon Bates, RHP
49.  Blake Rivera, RHP
50.  Aaron Bond, OF

Honorable Mention:  Conner Nurse RHP, Sean Roby 3B, Frankie Tostado 1B, Aaron Phillips RHP, Yorlis Rodriguez 3B, Jose Layer OF, Abdiel Layer IF, Dalton Combs OF, Sam Moll LHP, Kyle McPherson 2B, John Gavin LHP, Olbis Parra RHP......Will probably add more later....suggestions? Who did I forget completely about?

I tried to account for both ceiling and proximity to the majors and achieve a balance.  Again open to suggestions.  There is a clear top tier of Bart, Ramos and Luciano.  I think the next break comes around #28 after CJ Hinojosa which is where I chose to slide Tyler Beede.  I seriously considered leaving Beede off entirely and putting him in the HM list, but then thought there is enough chance of a bounceback to keep him in the list somewhere and that seemed to be a natural break where I could slip him in.


  1. If Ramos gets off to a slow start in 2019 he deserves to tumble from the no. 2 slot.

    1. You can say the same for Joey Bart or any other prospect, but that’s for next year’s list.

    2. True enough - put another way, I hope Ramos turns it up in 2019 to justify his lofty ranking. I'm skeptical since he scuffled badly at times this past season.

    3. When I look at the context, I think Heliot Ramos did just fine in 2018.

    4. Ramos was one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League.

  2. I've liked Webb from the first time I saw him on video at 18 y/o in the Giants system. Aside from the consistent, strong stats he's put up (not dominant but consistently good) I like his mound presence on video. Looks like a big leaguer with good stuff. Excited to see how he develops at the mlb level in the next year or two.

  3. I think Olbis Parra deserves a mention if not in top 50. Reliever who pitched 2.24 ball over 64 innings. 50k vs 9bb. I have watched this kid since he was in dominican league and he seems to dominate when given large sample sizes.

    I am not a fan on Kelvin Beltre. I would be comfortable putting Parra in his spot if given the choice.

    1. Beltre is a tough one. In addition to his longstanding difficulty staying on the field, it seems from reports I've read that all the injuries have taken their toll on his tools and possibly attitude.

      Agree Parra deserves mention. I probably rank Aaron Phillips higher(2 years younger, K/BB 120/16 in 101.2 IP.

      I really hate leaving Conner Nurse and Yorlis Rodriguez out of the Top 50 too.

  4. LOVE the Webb placement. But isn’t Canario a little low? Highly variable outcome guy, but jeez TONS of upside.

    1. I guess I was a bit disappointed in Canario's performance in the AZL.

    2. I still think canario is a top 10, age and time still on his side to develop 5 tools playing CF, not the best performance in AZ like you mention but is really hard to ignore the talent, imo.

  5. I like your list pretty well. I think I'd value Canario's upside a bit more - he's definitely Top 10 for me. Garcia is hard to peg; he looks like he fits the profile of a ML backup catcher (with slightly more possible), and there's real value in that. #8 seems like a good landing place.

    Ryan Howard also seems like a competent ML backup INF, but again I think I'd bump up Jalen Miller above him based on the upside.

    And Aaron Bond might be the sleeper prospect of the entire list.

    1. I feel like Ryan Howard's bat could play in the majors right now whereas I am a bit leery of how Jalen Miller is going to fare in AA. Agree on Aaron Bond. I will look for a way to move him up higher on the list.

  6. Agree 100% of Aaron Bond. In my opinion, he has a better chance of making it to the "show" than do Hayward, Fargas or Johnson.

  7. Luis Matos? I guess the question is, does the top 30 international prospect crack your Giants top 50?

    1. Don't know much about him. I'll try to do a little online scouting and see if I can add him. Notice I do have Marco Luciano at #3 and he has yet to play a pro game.

  8. I like this John Russell guy (Pen RHP) as a HM or maybe 30s/40s.

    Did you mean to leave Dan Slania off? And Sam Coonrod?

    1. Definitely Slania. Coonrod was added to the 40 man, so I'll take another look at him.

    2. I mean definitely leaving Slania off.

    3. Looks like Coonrod is strictly bullpen since TJ, protected so he'll most likely get a chance.

      One more - HM most likely due to no stateside but Luis Toribio has impressed early.

    4. I'll cover Toribio in the Dominican Dandies post.

  9. DrB, since we are talking prospects, do you think we have the prospects to possibly trade for a guy like Nick Castellanos assuming he would be available? I think his upside is huge and much younger than a guy like Jose Martinez. His D has not been great at 3B but his OF stats look decent enough for LF. I think his right handed pop would be great for AT&T.

    1. Giants have the prospects (even making Bart & Ramos untouchable). And they have the money to pay him.

      The D is going to be fair at best. Lots of chatter about him being ideal in a platoon. Still, if the Giants plan on completing in ‘19, this type of bat is needed.

    2. I'm guessing the Tigers can get a package for Castellanos they like better from another team.

    3. Just saw a MLBTR chat response to a question about Castellanos where the host called him the worst fielding OF in baseball. In other words, probably not someone we want patrolling any of the OF's at AT&T Park.

  10. Any particular reason you have Ferguson rated higher than Bergen? Gergen was picked first, so wouldn’t that indicate that without any new information, Bergen should be the higher of the two?

    1. Not necessarily.

      1. It's my list, not Farhan Zaidi's.

      2. Giants may think the market is strong for their veteran lefty relievers and wanted to make sure they created depth in case of a trade.

      3. Relief pitching is alway popular on Rule 5 Draft day because they are more likely to have room in the bullpen to roster them as required. The Giants may have calculated that Bergen was less likely to fall to the second round than Ferguson due to the demand for lefty relievers.

      4. Bergen may be more likely to stick on the 25 man roster but I think Ferguson's ceiling is a lot higher. Go back and read my Impact Rookies profile on him. I really like this guy!