Just like statistics can give you an idea of what to expect from a ballplayer, they might also tell you something about the behavior of they guy picking the players. Let's take a look at Farhan Zaidi's history and see if we can find a few tea leaves to read. While it is almost impossible to discern individual players he may acquire, we might be able to see some trends in his historical actions and from his statements. So, what can we look forward to this offseason?
1. No big contracts! Don't expect to see Bryce Harper or Manny Machado in a Giants uniform next year. The largest contract given out during Zaidi's 4 year tenure with the Dodgers was to Kenley Jansen for 5 years/$80 M and I'm guessing Zaidi is kicking himself for that one as I write this! If we do see Bryce in a Giants uniform next year, it's fairly safe to say that was an ownership driven signing.
2. Cheap Power. Zaidi openly says he loves power and keeps bringing up Khris Davis as his ideal trade scenario. Guess what, prior to his acquisition by the A's, Davis was a guy with a very similar profile as Justin Turner, Chris Taylor and Max Muncy. Expect to see someone along those lines manning LF next season. One guy who isn't far from that profile who is already in the Giants organization? Mac Williamson! Chris Shaw might be an internal option that catches Zaidi's fancy too.
3. Stockpile SP's who come with an injury discount. No Patrick Corbins for us! Expect to see a few bounceback candidates and guys who can pitch but need limited innings. I'll say Tyson Ross is a typical example.
4. Dumpster dive for the bullpen. Zaidi's history with the Dodgers was to skimp on the bullpen. Again, his one big signing was Jansen and I bet he regrets that! Now, that approach my come back to bite him in the postseason, but you have to get there first and Zaidi seems to be a guy who wants to invest his resources in other areas.
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If your analysis is accurate, it sounds like Zaidi goes about his business in a manner very much the opposite of Brian Sabean. Should be a fun ride watching Zaidi reshape the Giants.
ReplyDeleteGreat post Doc. I am finding myself musing on just what direction this off season will take. The point about Mac is a good one. Where do you find that kind of power? It's just a question of avoiding freakish injuries, and the risk is Mac may never stay healthy. But, he is sure an easy guy to root for.
ReplyDeleteI will say this, I will look for the silver lining in every move Zaidi makes with the hope that he sees untapped potential.
It may not make it into the summer, but for now I feel excited about the Giants future. I am prepared for a step backwards in order to take several steps forward in the near future.
So, until we get to sample the product in March, I will look to you to stir the pot with thought provoking posts like this one. Thanks.
First off - I was initially upset at Zaidi signing. He is a Canadian with no baseball background. But I knew nothing else about him. But when I examine all of the bonehead signings by Giants FO (no names) I realize he would never have made those stupid deals. What kind of bad deals? Too long a contract, too old a player, too many years, No Trade Clauses. He is thrifty and smart - Giants FO can not be sentimental. Those contracts all turned SOUR.
ReplyDeleteAs to your comments. You are exactly right - I hope Mac Williamson is given every opportunity to be the home grown power bat he was intended to be. I am more skeptical that Shaw has the tools - maybe he can receive some high end tutoring to cut down on K's.
This is going to be really fun to watch. Pour a little out for Brian Sabean, his era of Giants baseball has brought heartbreak and triumph.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see Zaidi scramble for that extra guy - that's his rep. Sabean with his most famous trade did just that - and look at what Jeff Kent turned into - he was not the highlight of that trade.
First thing on his list: get rid of Hunter Strickland. The pen is actually not in bad shape, so do addition by subtraction first, and then supplement the depth.
I think that's a great point about letting Shaw and Williamson get another shot. Cheap power indeed!
Here's a left field one: Anthony Rendon trade. The Nats might be in tear down mode with all the moneys they have spent and the bad juju results. Rendon is in his last year of arb, free agent after the year. He has quietly put together 3 straight relatively healthy years. He can fake 2B for position flex. The dude can hit... when healthy. Its hard to gauge how much he costs on trade front but the contract works against the Nats.
Giants need to improve their hitting somehow. That's the bottom line. It'll be interesting to see if he goes low BA/Power and sacrifices defense. I think a more interesting strategy is to stockpile high contact high BA hitters and build depth - the team was in it until injuries got the best of them - it wasn't pretty no doubt - but they were in that NL West dogfight for a while.
I don't expect a teardown.
Rendon bats RH (good), has one year on his contract (good, probably), is a negative fielder (bad), Boras client in final arbitration (immaterial for 2019), will get $12,300,000 (not good).
DeleteYES, get a RH OFer, do not sacrifice fielding, do make a good deal.
Rendon would be kinda nice at the right price but that's sooooo unlikely.
One other thought - Aramis Garcia displayed some power in his brief call-up. I wonder if the new FO will do whatever they can to harness that bat, to groom Garcia to be an elite power threat? ala the Dodger threesome under discussion
ReplyDeleteKNBR seems to be pushing Bum and/or Belt be traded, at least that's what was coming in the 3 o'clock hour today.
ReplyDeleteFirst off, the Giants WILL compete, they will NOT tear down. They have to get a lot to give up anyone for 2019 -- certainly not Belt for Gray and Bird. Who the H wants Greg Bird playing 1st base? I wouldn't buy a ticket for that! I'm okay with trading Bum and Belt but there needs to be a huge haul for that because those 2 are $20,000,000 in the seats! Me amongst them!
Agree - Belt is the best bat on the team. Recent stats proved that. Top 100 Prospects ONLY in return for those 2
DeleteWhile I doubt that it will happen, I would actually like to see Belt traded. I really like him and I'd even go so far as to say I'm not sure he's ever been given a fair shot with the team. BUT, Posey is more important to the team for both the chemistry and the overall performance. Posey's injury to me suggests we need to actively protect him and moving to first would be the right move. He will be as good defensively, if not better. We could sign a FA and have Aramis as the second Catcher. And we have Bart coming up fast. Just seems like a good move. Whether we'd have to give up or could get something for him is a different question, but I would think notwithstanding his injury there are some teams that would love to have him on a friendly deal (maybe we eat some salary and get some prospects).
ReplyDeleteTorn about MadBum. If we could get some really good prospects, I'd probably trade him. Right now we have an incomplete starting rotation and trading him would make it worse. But we seem to be on the cusp of the next generation. So maybe you bit the bullet and accelerate that.
In terms of position players, I like what we've got and would like to see some of the rookies get a shot. I view this transition moving to building up and relying on the farm more.