Scouting the Draft: 2012 Retrospective

We have only partial returns from the 2012 draft class, but enough to start to draw some conclusions. The Giants drafted #20.  Much like 2010, draft position may have cost them as there seems to be a big drop-off in talent between where they picked and the Dodgers and Cardinals at #18 and #19 respectively.  This draft has already produced 2 solid stars and a number of solid MLB regulars who probably fall short of stardom.  This draft also has it's fair share of picks we can safely call busts and more who probably will be.  The Astros made the right pick at the top with Carlos Correa while the Twins have yet to get results at the MLB level from Byron Buxton.  It is a mixed bag after that until you get to #18 where the Dodgers took Corey Seager and #19 where the Cardinals got almost immediate results from Michael Wacha.  The jury is still out on the Giants pick, Chris Stratton at #20, who has taken a long time to develop and has been inconsistent at the MLB level with flashes of brilliance.

Other picks in the top 20 who have had some measure of success at the MLB level include Mike Zunino(3), Kevin Gausman(4), Albert Almora(6), Addison Russell(11), Tyler Naquin(15).  It is fairly safe to call Kyle Zimmer(5), Mark Appel(8), Gavin Cecchini(12), Courtney Hawkins(13), Nick Traveiso(14), and DJ Davis(17) busts.  Buxton, Max Fried(7), Andrew Heaney(9) and David Dahl(9) still have a chance at stardom.

All of those players were taken ahead of the Giants pick at #20 so were off the board.  The point of this series of posts is to evaluate whether the Giants could have done better given their relatively low draft position so let's take a look at the rest of the first round:

21.  Lucas Sims, HS RHP, Braves- on the cusp of the Majors with a chance to be a star.
22.  Marcus Stroman, College RHP, Blue Jays- Immediate impact but may already be on the downside of his career.
23.  James Ramsey, OF, Cardinals- Bust.
24.  Deven Marrero, SS, Red Sox- Could be a decent MLB regular but blocked in Boston.
25.  Richie Shaffer, 3B, Rays- Bust.
26.  Stryker Trahan, C, D'Backs- Bust.
27.  Clint Coulter, C, Brewers- Bust.
28.  Victor Roache, OF, Brewers- Bust.
29.  Lewis Brinson, OF, Rangers- Could be a decent regular or even a star, but needs playing time and has to hit more consistently.
30.  Ty Hensley, RHP, Yankees- Bust.
31.  Brian Johnson, LHP, Red Sox- marginal success at MLB level.

You could make a case that the Giants should have selected Sims or Stroman instead of Chris Stratton, but even that is not clear as Stratton could still turn out better than either of those two.

As for the rest of the Giants 2012 draft, Martin Acosta in Round 2 was a bust.  Some of us still hold out high hopes for Mac Williamson(Round 3).  Steven Okert(Round 4) looks like he's finally ready to be a decent lefty reliever at the MLB level.  Ty Blach(Round 5) has established himself as a fringy 5'th SP/Long Reliever.  Trevor Brown(Round 10) has had a brief career as a back up catcher.  Ian Gardeck(Round 16) is trying to comeback after 2 TJ's.  The big sleeper and bargain in this draft was Matt Duffy(Round 18) who has established himself as a solid MLB infielder when healthy.

Conclusion:  The Giants probably did as well as they could given their draft position and made some solid picks later in the draft.  It is unlikely that a different scouting team would have done better.