Thursday, November 22, 2018

Scouting the Draft: 2017 Draft Review(Picks 1-10)

We scouted the 2017 draft in quite a bit of detail, so you should recognize the names of most of the players drafted in the first round.  This was the Giants Heliot Ramos draft.  I remember the exact moment I knew the Giants had to draft Ramos.  It was when I saw a mock draft that had him going to the Dodgers.  I let out an audible "oh no!" and just said, "the Giants cannot allow Heliot Ramos to get to the Dodgers!".  Seems like someone in the Giants front office might have been thinking along those same lines.  So, let's check in on how the first rounders from the 2017 draft are doing.  We'll list their 2018 stat lines and then just for fun give a letter grade based only on performance so far.

1.  Royce Lewis, Twins, SS, HS:  Low A- .315/.368/.485, 9 HR, 22 SB, 7.3 BB%, 15 K%, 327 PA.  A+- .255/.327/.399, 5 HR, 6 SB, 208 PA.  Midseason promotions are tough for prospects because all those players who started the season at a higher level have been getting better too.  High A is an aggressive promotion for a HS prospect in their first full season.  I remember being skeptical of Lewis' bat because of a slow bat-to-ball time.  That metric might not be the best measure of a batter's hit tool.  Grade A.

2.  Hunter Greene, Reds, RHP, HS:  Low A- 3-7, 4.48, 68.1 IP, 11.72 K/9, 3.03 BB/9.  HS pitchers are the highest risk demographic on draft day.  Greene was a 2-way player in HS but the Reds drafted him as a pitcher.  Peripherals look good here and he has maintained premium velocity in the pros.  Young pitchers who throw that hard tend to blow out their elbows and Greene's season was cut short by an elbow strain.  No TJ yet, but stay tuned.  Grade B.

3.  Mackenzie Gore, Padres, LHP, HS:  Low A- 2-5, 4.45, 60.2 IP, 10.98 K/9, 2.67 BB/9.  Gore was the darling of the draft analysts who proclaimed him the steal of the draft.  Peripherals look good but the season was interrupted by 3 trips to the DL.  At least the first one was due to finger blisters.  Grade B.

4.  Brendan McKay, Rays, LHP/1B, College(Louisville):  Low A- 2-0, 1.09, 24.2 IP, 14.59 K/9, 0.73 BB/9.  A+- 3-2, 3.21, 47.2 IP, 10.20 K/9, 2.08 BB/9.  Low A- .254/.484/.333, HR, 30.8 BB%, 14.3 K%, 91 PA.  A+- .210/.317/.403, 5 HR, 11.5 BB%, 27.3 K%.  College 2-way player who the Rays are allowing to pursue his dreams.  Pitching results are more promising so far.  Grade B+.

5.  Kyle Wright, Braves, RHP, College(Vanderbilt):  AA- 6-8, 3.70, 109.1 IP, 8.64 K/9, 3.54 BB/9.  AAA- 2-1, 2.51, 28.2 IP, 8.79 K/9, 2.51 BB/9.  MLB- 0-0, 4.50, 6 IP, 7.50 K/9, 9.00 BB/9.  First 2017 draft prospect to reach the majors in his first full season, no less!  Peripherals look more like a #3 profile than top of the rotation, but he should have a solid career as an MLB starter. Grade A-.

6.  Austin Beck, A's, OF, HS:  Low A- .296/.335/.383, 2 HR, 8 SB, 5.6 BB%, 21.9 K%, 534 PA.  This is where draft philosophy gets confusion.  The A's, who pioneered the concept of drafting lower cost, higher floor college prospects have gone all in for tools, tools, tools the last 2 drafts.  Beck was a late riser on draft analysts boards and was all tools.  Those are not half bad results from his first pro season, though.  Grade B.

7.  Pavin Smith, D'Backs, 1B, College(Virginia):  A+:  .255/.343/.392, 11 HR, 3 SB, 11.3 BB%, 12.9 K%, 504 PA.  With Paul Goldschmidt rumored to be on the trading block, Pavin Smith might be the D'Backs 1B of the future.  His profile is more Joey Votto than Goldy.  Power is a bit disappointing so far.  Grade B.

8.  Adam Haseley, Phillies, OF, College(Virginia):  A+- .270/.350/.380, 5 HR, 7 SB, 5.4 BB%, 15.3 K%, 354 PA.  AA- .316/.403/.478, 6 HR, 10.1 BB%, 11.9 K%, 159 PA.  We'll call this the Andrew Benintendi profile.  5-tool college OF's with plus-plus hit.  Better results after promo to AA.  Not sure what they are up to in Philly this offseason, but I could see Haseley in their OF by midseason.  Grade A.

9.  Keston Hiura, Brewers, 2B, College(UC Irvine):  A+- .320/.382/.529, 7 HR, 4 SB, 6.1 BB%, 20.6 K%, 228 PA.  AA- .272/.339/.416, 6 HR, 11 SB, 7.2 BB%, 18.2 K%.  2018 AFL MVP.  Drafted for his bat.  Seems to have recovered from UCL tear without undergoing surgery and is reportedly doing OK on defense at 2B.  Could be the Brewers starting 2B by May 1. Grade A.

10.  Jo Adell, Angels, OF, HS:  Low A- .326/.398/.611, 6 HR, 4 SB, 10.2 BB%, 24.1 K%, 108 PA.  A+- .290/.345/.546, 12 HR, 9 SB, 5.7 BB%, 24 K%, 262 PA.  AA- .238/.324/.429, 2 HR, 2 SB, 8.5 BB%, 31.0 K%, 71 PA.  Wow!  What a prospect!  What a season!  It's almost unheard of for a HS draftee to make AA in their first full season.  I called Adell having the highest ceiling of any player in the draft going in and now he's backing that up with on-field performance.  Will he play in the same OF as Mike Trout?  Grade A+!!

No comments:

Post a Comment