We are starting to get into territory where it is harder to draw conclusions because not enough time has elapsed to see the ultimate development of the drafted players, but we'll forge ahead anyway. For Giants fans, this draft became very difficult to swallow last year as #14 overall pick, Tyler Beede, suffered a complete collapse which lasted all season and his future, while possibly not completely hopeless is looking none too bright.
Giants fans are not the only ones frustrated with this draft as the top 2, Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek also appear to be headed to bustville. Top pick Aiken was not signed by the Astros after concerns were raised during his physical. Those concerns were proven to be well founded when he underwent TJ surgery after being removed from his first and only start for IMF Academy. He had a so-so season for the Indians Midwest League team in 2018. Kolek was always a TJ waiting to happen as he threw in triple digits but didn't have a lot else going for him. #3 Carlos Rodon got to the majors quickly but has struggled to establish himself with the White Sox.
Kyle Schwarber had close to an immediate impact for the Cubs but struggles for a place to play due to defensive deficiencies. Aaron Nola(#7) and Kyle Freeland(#8) appear to be college pitching successs stories and the best player in the draft, once again, was taking just 1 pick ahead of the Giants as Trea Turner went to the Padres who flipped him to the Nationals.
Then we come to Tyler Beede at #14. This is where you can start to question John Barr's draft philosophy as he has shown a strong tendency to favor players with long resumes and Beede had been on scouting radars for a long time. He was the Blue Jays first round pick 3 years before out of HS. The rap on Beede was poor command which is another area where the Giants have tended to possibly over-believe in their own ability to "fix" pitchers with command issues.
Touki Toussaint was probably the most popular fan pick still on the board at this point, but he was a HS pitcher with command issues of his own. Sean Newcomb, a late rising college lefty went to the Angels at #15 and Touki went to the D'Backs at #16. Ironically, both Newcomb and Touki are now with the Braves after being traded by their drafting team. While Beede could still make a comeback and justify his draft position, it's currently looking like either Newcomb or Touki would have been better choices. Brandon Finnegan at #17 made an immediate impact, but has struggled since. After that the drop-off is rather dramatic.
The next 7 picks were Erick Fedde RHP, Nick Howard RHP, Casey Gillaspie 1B, Bradley Zimmer OF, Grant Holmes RHP, Derek Hill OF, and Cole Tucker SS.
Matt Chapman has had surprising success with the A's out of the #25 slot. Luke Weaver and Jack Flaherty show promise from #27 and #34 respectively. Michael Kopech has wowed prospect watchers with triple digit heat but predictably underwent TJ surgery late in 2018.
There is still plenty of hope in the 2014 draft for Giants fans as Aramis Garcia(2), Dylan Davis(3), Logan Webb(4), Sam Coonrod(5), Austin Slater(8), Stetson Woods(9) and Jordan Johnson(23) remain in the organization with varying degrees of success. Garcia has a great shot at a significant MLB career given the weakness in the current cohort of MLB catchers. Webb showed great promise out of TJ surgery in 2018 and could be ready to help as soon as midseason 2019. Austin Slater has had his moments, but is a guy who might benefit from a re-tool of his swing to give him more power.
Conclusion: Final returns are not in yet, but this is looking like a draft where the Giants could have done better, specifically Sean Newcomb or Touki Toussaint were likely better picks than Tyler Beede in the first round.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
DrB - I've enjoyed this series, thanks for posting them.
ReplyDeleteI was pretty hyped about Touki at the time, its still too early to tell what will happen though. But Beede took a serious dive this year after a long build up where Giants fans have been pretty patient and hopeful with him, and Touki has now made his debut. The point of taking the college kid over the HS kid is to get more immediate results. I think this has been the error of the past few years (although yes, the Giants rarely enjoy premium draft position).
One thing I haven't been a fan of with Barr is his affinity for college players at the top of the draft. At this point in 2014 in his drafting he's at 5 out of 7 since 2008 (Wheeler/Arroyo being the exceptions). Specifically not drafting for elite athleticism (maybe with the exception of Gary Brown). This was finally addressed in 2017 with the pick of Heliot Ramos.
Barr has been pretty good with position players, especially getting the core group. His record on pitching... Ain't good.
Hey Shankbone! I know the conventional wisdom is that HS draftees have higher ceilings but college players have lower floors. I am not so sure that is true.
DeleteAllan Simpson studied all draftees in the first 5 rounds from 1965-1995 and found that college players were more likely to reach the major leagues. He published those results in 2002 in Baseball America. Then a fellow named Rick Karcher studied draftees from 1996-2011 and found that college position players were the most likely to reach the major leagues and were the most likely to play for more than 3 years. College pitchers were the second most likely in both categories. I believe our friend, Covechatter, did his own study and found the same results.
I know these studies do not definitively answer the ceiling vs floor question but they provide fairly strong evidence that on average it's a better bet to draft college players than HS in the first 5 rounds of the draft.
...but we all loved Touki and I don't think any of us would have been disappointed if the Giants had drafted him at #14. At this point, it looks like he is likely to have a much better career than Tyler Beede.
DeleteI wouldn't argue with those studies at all! It would appear that you should go all in on college hitters most the time. Fun fact - Ty Blach is the highest WAR of a drafted pitcher in the past 10 years of Barr drafts (homegrown - we did trade away Wheeler, Hembree and Crick).
DeleteI'm sure you'll touch on it if you do the 2015 version, its early but it appears the Giants erred on Bickford, the Bums took a chance on TJ surgery with Walker Buehler, and they look to reap benefits now. Kind of funny because the Giants have a history of snagging those types, just not at the top of the draft. And they obviously spend quite a lot of time at Vanderbilt.
On one hand, its hard to draft in the teens, as this series demonstrates. On the other hand, there is a big wasteland starting after the 2011 Panik draft, and especially not having the rotation depth from the draft to count on has had some consequences. The Giants not drafting shiny HS players - the major currency for teams - have left them with less trade options as well. For every Mookie Betts that comes along (5th round 2011 - big overslot bonus) there are a dozen who are trade fodder. But if you don't draft you aren't in that lottery, and you also lose out on that particular currency for the low chance hit or the need to trade.
I'm glad they hung onto Ramos, and I hope if the opportunity presents itself they will go that route more often.
These are great articles DrB.
ReplyDeleteI am striving to understand how a draft from an ‘analytic’ approach differs from a traditional scouting approach.
It is hard to tell which picks are more influenced by which philosophy— any thoughts?
That is a very complicated question. The simple answer is there is no difference. Both "camps" teach draft the "best player available". How you identify that player is the big question.
DeleteI could be way off base here, but my idea of the "traditional" approach is you send out a bunch of scouts who grade players on "tools" and "projection" which is basically something the scout sees in his/her mind. The "analytic" approach uses that method too, but augments it with data about on-field performance and "trends" such as the stat that says college picks are more likely to reach the major leagues and more likely to have careers of longer than 3 years.
What gets confusing is how individual organizations put all that into practice. Back in the early days of Moneyball, the A's drafted almost exclusively college players and players believed to have "high floors" and "low ceilings". In the last few drafts they have taken almost the opposite approach and taken an extreme "tools" approach, at least in the first round.
Looking at the Dodgers picks since 2014 when Zaidi became GM, I don't see a pattern. It's a mix of college and HS players. There are several non-signings. Whether those are "blown" picks or strategic decisions is unclear. I will say that having attended a couple of Rancho Cucamonga Quakes games in the last 2 years, it seems clear to me that the Dodgers farm system is filled with classic "Moneyball" type players: Beefy guys who hit for power but are not necessarily great runners or fielders. But then they also drafted Jeren Kendall in the first round, a guy who is all tools and very shaky stats. So take that!
It's easy to criticize draft picks but truth is there is seldom a sure thing.
ReplyDeleteGiants got incredibly lucky in the 1st round from Cain to Posey, and that's why they won 3 WS, with some shrewd additions. They outdrafted the Dodgers in the first round: Kershaw, Seager, Buehler.
It's a crap shoot, and the odds are high enough with the 1st pick (sometimes "obvious" or works out ok: Harper, Strasbourg, Price, Cole) but many weren't Harper or even Cole.
It's really the "late" finds that make the team but why are some 3rd and 4th and 5th or later?
That's not superior scouting because a Crawford or a Belt or a Wilson or a Romo or even a Duffy would have been drafted much higher than they were.
The team has tried each year to stay relevant, not always succeeding, since 2014 but they were OH so close in 2016 (a closer please) and even 2018 they were in play until September with the WORST luck EVER all freakin' year.
They are only a couple key players short: 1 OFer, 1 RH hitter, 1 SP, and some luck which has been absent since 2014. It's our turn!
They're due, they have budget flexibility to fill the holes without rolling big on Harper (besides he's not a good fielder or RH hitter however good).
Do spend some, but some RH bats and a pitcher or two don't have to cost $40M a year which they have to spend UNDER the CBT.
That's why the Giants signed Zaidi: to be smart.