The 2013 draft has proven to be extremely weak. The two stars so far are Kris Bryant who went to the Cubs at #2 and Aaron Judge to the Yanks at #32. The #1 overall, Mark Appel, was ultimately one of the bigger busts in draft history. Beyond that, there are isolated islands of success but not very many. Colin Moran at #6, Hunter Renfroe at #13 and Tim Anderson at #17 have had limited success but are still far from being considered stars.
The Giants famously drafted Christian Arroyo at #25 prompting jokes and laughter from the TV commentators. Arroyo looked good coming up through the Giants farm system but did a face plant when he was rushed up from AAA to fill a gap left by injury. He was then traded to the Rays for Evan Longoria which was not a terrible trade in the short term, but probably ill-advised in the longterm. Arroyo still has a chance to be good and the Giants are stuck with Longoria's contract for 4 more years.
As you look down the draft list from Arroyo there is Judge at #32 and then pretty much nothing. It was just a very weak draft. Going through the rest of the Giants draft, Ryder Jones(2), Chase Johnson(3), Dan Slania(5), Tyler Rogers(10), Johneshwy Fargas(11), Jonah Arenado(16), Jake McCasland(26), Michael Connolly(27), Dusten Knight(28), John Riley(31), and Rayan Hernandez(34) are still in the organization. Ryan Kirby(40) did not sign out of HS and the Giants drafted him again in a later draft out of college.
Conclusion: Aaron Judge aside, the Giants probably drafted as well as they could have in the 2013 draft. It is unlikely a different scouting team would have done better. It remains to be seen if the Giants gave up on Christian Arroyo too soon.
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Great articles Doc. These scouting articles, as a whole, are very eye opening. It makes me wonder about how the Giants did with international signings during the same timeline.
ReplyDeleteThe Giants have historically not been active in the international market compared to other organizations. When they have splurged and signed players to 7 digit contracts, the results have been disappointing. Angel Villalona ran afoul of the law in the DR. Rafael Rodriguez just never gained traction on his career and eventually went bust. I still believe Gustavo Cabrera could have been a star were it not for a very unfortunate injury. Lucius Fox was traded away and might still turn out decent.
DeletePablo Sandoval is the Giants big international success story. They have ticked up their activity in recent years despite being limited to $300 K contracts due to the Fox signing. There are several interesting international prospects in the lower minors including Sandro Fabian and Manuel Geraldo. They were able to spend big again in 2018 and got 3 very promising players led by Marco Luciano who has the look of a big star if he develops.
I would also add that several organizations who have had the most success in the international market, including the Dodgers, are now under investigation for cheating and being involved in human trafficking so there's that.
DeleteWhaaaaaaaat!?!?!
DeleteYep. Just Google it.
DeleteLook up Fangraphs article 10/8/2018: The Dodger Might Be In Actual Legal Trouble."
DeleteThat is an excellent point, Doc. How dirty did you have to be to win these highly desirable international prospects?
DeleteIt's unclear to me why there is not an MLB international draft, which might curtail a lot of the immoral, illegal activity necessary to sign highly regarded Int'l prospects.
On the surface it seems very strange that foreign players are allowed access to the free market (signing with whichever team they choose, usually the highest bidder) while domestic prospects are subject to a draft.
At least there are spending limits with serious penalties for international signings now which should result in a more even distribution of talent and discourage unethical and illegal relationships between teams and buscones.
DeleteSecond is that the Dodgers are evidently a prime target of the probe.
DeleteOne particularly remarkable document shows that Dodgers executives in 2015 went so far as to develop a database that measured the perceived “level of egregious behavior” displayed by 15 of their own employees in Latin America. That is, using a scale of 1 to 5—“innocent bystander” to “criminal”—front-office executives assessed their own staff’s level of corruption. Five employees garnered a “criminal” rating.
What did Zaidi know and when did he know it...
Lucius Fox has had a very good showing in the Arizona Fall League. He is hitting .319 (14th best average in the league and right behind teammate Keston Hiura).
ReplyDeleteI'm ok with the Arroyo pick since they got something for him: Longoria. Wanted to see more of Ryder Jones but he got hurt like everybody else. Interesting to see what will happen to John Barr.
ReplyDeleteLG
The entire Lucius Fox story continues to bother me: The Giants don't usually get too involved in the international market, then they seemingly overpayed for Fox, so much so that they allowed themselves to incur the international signing penalty. He seemed to develop at an appropriate age-level rate, or reasonably close to it. Then they seemingly gave up on him way too soon and included him in an overpay for Matt Moore. Okay, I get that Moore was a potential bounce back candidate and occasionally flashed signs of that potential but unless TB insisted that Fox be included or there was no deal, kudos to TB if that was the case. They certainly are a forward thinking team and I wish Fox and their organization well.
ReplyDeleteI know I'm oversimplifying things but it almost seems like a case of Joe Schmoe G feeling the pressure to keep up with his rich and successful neighbor down the street, Richie Rich D. So he splurges on a snazzy new imported car, throwing himself into debt. Then being disappointed that his new toy isn't quite as fast and powerful as RRD's stable of stallions, JSG starts to doubt himself and his ability to actually maintain his prized new vehicle. When Timmy Boy R, the smart new college grad, book smart but cash poor, comes around and asks about Schmoe's car, TBR is able to swing a sweet deal and swap his dad's classic old Mustang, a car Schmoe is familiar with, for JSG's new imported model.
Finally, realizing he'd hadn't kept up with the times and acknowledging he had to make some major changes or eventually lose his business and family, Schmoe goes out and hires Richie Rich D's financial advisor. Then he adds some of TBR's college grad classmates to his staff. The new management team blends old school experience and wisdom with new school ideas and intrepidness and Schmoe is able to revitalize his business and life.
Thanks for indulging me in this little story... Let's hope this one comes true
How about a little adjustment? The car Joe bought was a Tesla, not well tested, on which Joe gave up after driving it for a while and talking it over with a group of experts; and the car he got from TBR was a Maserati with a good bit of mileage on it, but an excellent record of reliability. That automotive tale seems to me very much more accurate.
ReplyDeleteI am so confused! Who has which car now? LOL!
ReplyDeleteWell, in my automotive fantasy, Fox is the scarcely tested electric Tesla, and Longoria the aging Maserati, or some other Euro-luxury set of wheels, never a Mustang.
ReplyDeleteWhy the team traded Fox, none of us knows, but it certainly wasn’t without taking a good look at him. Nor do we know if the Giants gave up too soon on him.
....except Fox was traded for Matt Moore, right?
DeleteConfusing car analogy aside, you made some good comments about Lucius Fox. DId Giants overpay for LF? Whose idea to incur a penalty? Whose idea to then include LF in trade for Moore?
DeleteGiants ownership is cleaning house and the FO responsible for the LF signing and trade are gone.
Recall when the 49ers lost a post-season game and the offense was absent - the Offensive Coordinator
was named Tressman (or something) and at a press conference the press asked the coach about him and Eddie D. angrily blurted out, "GONE."
Well SFG FO has been canned.