Two things I am a lot less interested in now than I was a few years ago are the Arizona Fall League and the Rule 5 Draft. AFL numbers historically mean absolutely nothing and the Rule 5 Draft only rarely results in any significant transfer of talent. Having said that, the AFL season recently ended and teams have completed their pre-Rule 5 maneuverings so it's time to check in on what's going on.
Giants pitching prospects shone in this year's AFL while their hitting prospect representatives mostly struggled. Melvin Adon in particular got national attention with his eye-popping velocity combined with strong results. Here are the stat lines for anyone who is interested:
Melvin Adon, RHP- 0-1, 2.92, 12.1 IP, 3 BB, 21 K's. Adon gave up 3 runs in his last 2 appearances after 7 consecutive scoreless outings. The K/BB is obviously encouraging. What he needs more than anything is consistency and this sample is too small to show that. The velocity is for real though. His skill set may be better suited to the bullpen but he has shown the ability to hold his velocity deep into games.
Garrett Williams, LHP- 3-0, 1.88, 24 IP, 11 BB, 27 K. Williams has always had premium stuff, but has struggled with his command. He's kind of been the poster boy for the Giants strategy trying to fix pitching prospects who fit that profile. You can see some of that in the walk rate here. Again, this is a SSS, but hopefully something to build on.
Chase Johnson, RHP- 0-0, 3.00, 9 IP, 7 BB, 10 K's. Johnson was recently dropped from the Giants 40 man roster but passed through waivers and was assigned to the AAA Sacramento roster. He needs a full season of health S/P TJ. I'm happy he will get to do that in the Giants organization.
Sam Wolff, RHP- 1-0, 0.00, 10 IP, 2 BB, 14 K's. Wolff was acquired in the Matt Moore trade last offseason and spent the first half of 2018 on the DL. He was inconsistent after his midseason return. These numbers look great, but were not enough to get him onto the Giants 40 man roster. At risk for being grabbed in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.
CJ Hinojosa, IF- .149/.245/.234, HR, 5 BB, 12 K, 47 AB. CJ had his moment, a 3-run PH HR, but otherwise had a forgettable AFL.
Heath Quinn, OF- .128/.222/.128, 4 BB, 17 K's, 39 AB. Not good numbers at all, but it's the AFL.
Matt Winn, C- .122/.321/.317, 2 HR, 12 BB, 20 K, 41 AB. Winn's profile is he is a good defensive C with leadership skills with a bit of pop and contact issues. This result fits in with that profile.
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The Giants added 3 players to their 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, RHP Melvin Adon, RHP Logan Webb and RHP Sam Coonrod. Adon and Webb were expected. Coonrod is an interesting choice given his struggle post-TJ last season. Sandro Fabian and Manuel Geraldo are probably too far away to worry about too much.
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RHP Julian Fernandez, the Giants Rule 5 selection last year, was dropped from the 40 man roster and claimed of waivers by the Marlins. Since he spent all of last year on the DL, the Giants would have to keep him on the 25 man active roster for 90 days or offer him back to the Rockies. Probably not worth that trouble, but I really like this kid and hope his finds success in Miami.
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Kelby Tomlinson has moved on from the Giants after they moved on from him. He signed a minor league contract with the D'Backs with an invitation for spring training. Wish Kelby the best. He got the absolute most out of his talent and had some nice moments with the Giants. I can easily see him being a coach or manager someday.
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With 4 open 40-man spots (plus Gorkys) and 1 needed for backup for Posey (unless that's Garcia!?), the Giants are able to add ML ready players and have money (a lot if they're willing to go over $207MM after resetting) to spend.
ReplyDeleteDo you think they might just bolster the pitching and then see if the veteran C/IF plus Shaw, Williamson, and Duggar can do enough to keep the folks coming through the gates?
The 3 of them -- the OFers -- aren't kids anymore, they are "arrived" or close, Shaw and Duggar reaching 26 at the end of the season, Mac is do-or-die at 29.
With the "core" on the field, I'd pay to see them play.
Or is that silly?
All bets off if they hunker down and buy Harper which would be very un-Zaidi, wouldn't it?
I agree about the AFL! But every year some grinders from there end up on the 25. The 2015 AFL class was Arroyo, Williamson, Slater, Mejia, Blackburn, Slania and... Ray Black! Hey that's 2 of the 5 OFs on the current 40 man. The past 3 years haven't been very exciting.
ReplyDeleteI scoured the list of unprotected Rule 5 players. Here are two helpful links:
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/11/18/18101439/eligible-prospects-rule-5-draft-tracker
https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-40-man-roster-protection-preview/c-300760064
There aren't a lot of exciting players. One guy who stood out to me is on the Dodgers - Drew Jackson - speed guy who can defend up the middle and hit some. That'd be my first choice. A backup would be Cleveland's Tyler Krieger - went to Clemson with Duggar, has dealt with injuries. Pretty fast also, switch hitter, maybe a utility guy but can play up the middle.
I'm enjoying Zaidi's lack of moves. I imagine he's learning the entire organization on the fly. Glad he protected Webb and Adon - Coonrod is interesting. Maybe because of how the game is evolving to avoid 200 IP starters? Two guys who might be fast tracked to the pen from last year's draft - Jake Wong and Blake Rivera. With Adon going to the pen also I just thought of that.
Kelby has been a fun scrappy player to watch. Hope he can make it.
I agree on Drew Jackson. The other guy who I was really surprised was not protected is SS Richie Martin of the A's. Hasn't shown a lot of power so far but has outstanding K and BB numbers.
DeleteA couple of 40 man roster casualties that I could see Zaidi having some interest in: Derek Dietrich DFA'd by the Marlins and Jose Miguel Fernandez DFA'd by the Angels. Fernandez in particular was in the Dodgers organization prior to the Angels stint.
Wow, all AFL bats well south of Mendoza. We can say the requisite, "means little," sure. But that is a sad showing.
ReplyDeleteYou might want to look up Mike Trout and Buster Posey's AFL stat lines. Not quite as bad a the current Giants trio but a long ways off from their expectations at the time and their accomplishments since.
DeleteSwitch hitting SS Manuel Geraldo finished strong at 21 yo in unfriendly Augusta, perhaps giving some hope for the future -- will he do better in A+ hitting environment? Is he a potential Giant SS, a replacement for Crawford by 2021 or 22?
ReplyDelete