The most intriguing subplot in the Dodgers current run of success in the NL West is the emergence of 3 players, who other organizations essentially gave up on, into All-Star level production. Ordinarily, I wouldn't be writing about Dodgers random success stories on this blog, but now the Giants have hired former Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi to be their head honcho in charge of all baseball operations. Now we want to know what role he played in finding those 3 players and what he might have seen in them that led to their acquisition. I spent part of last night and this morning scouring each player's Fangraphs stat page trying to pick up patterns. What I found were some definite similarities but also some differences. Let's break it down:
Justin Turner: Turner came to the Dodgers in 2014 which I believe is a year before the new regime took over. It is also well known that Turner worked with a private hitting coach on his own to change himself from a groundball predominant hitter to a flyball hitter. The only thing I can add to that is he maintained K rates under 20% throughout his minor and major league career and has lowered them even more to an astounding 10% in the last 2 years while maintaining walk rates in the 5-10% range which is pretty average.
Chris Taylor: I remember Taylor getting attention from stats oriented websites when he was in the Mariners organization. He maintained BB% over 10 with K% under 20 through his minor league career with flashes of power. Those ratios proved elusive in major league action with K/BB of around 25/8 being typical even after moving to the Dodgers. I don't know if Taylor consulted with Justin Turner's private hitting coach but the most dramatic change in his stat line was a flipping of his GB/FB ratio from around 1.5 or more to 0.86 in 2018.
Max Muncy: Muncy came up through the A's organization and he was more of a ready-made product. He maintained BB% greater than 10 with K% less than 20 throughout his minor league career. He also had a strong flyball tendency throughout his minor league career. It is therefore not clear why he enjoyed such a huge power spike in 2018 and in the majors. Maybe he just learned to swing harder?
Conclusion: Although Justin Turner, Chris Taylor and Max Muncy are not exact clones of each other and arrived at their breakouts by slightly different paths, the common characteristics seem to be high walk rate combined with relatively low K rate and getting the ball in the air more than on the ground.
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Isn't a high FB/GB a characteristic of the Dodgers' organization?
ReplyDeleteThe Dodgers as a team had the 3'rd highest FB rate in MLB with a GB/FB of 1.05, but that number is significantly higher than any of the 3 players discusses in the post. They also had the highest team BB% and the 16 lowest K% in MLB.
DeleteI don't think there is anything earthshaking here. High Walk Rate, low K rate and HR's is pretty much the standard Moneyball formula. It's just that we now have a better understanding of the components that go into the HR part such as Flyball rates and Launch Angles.
Haven't the Giants had more success with turnaround pitchers than batters?
ReplyDeleteThe pitching trades and signings have been a mixed bag -- perhaps success is random and you just have to try a lot?
The start of the "run" in 2010 would not have happened without the acquisitions of Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, Freddie Sanchez, Andres Torres, Juan Uribe, and Edgar Renteria -- although the biggest $$ splashes, Rowand and Zito -- were not integral to the start of the run. Maybe they were paid too much?
Is dumpster diving better than high priced FA signings, Barry Bonds excepted?
An acquisition of a FA outfielder that happened in 2007, played 2 years with the Giants, team lost 181 games, was none other than Dave Roberts. That was the same year that the Giants signed Barry Zito. General Manager: Brian Sabean.
An average, high priced FA signings have performed very poorly all over MLB in the last 10 years. A big part of that is the long length of the contracts for players age 30 and over which almost assures the back end of the contract is going to be bad for the team. That creates big problems for a team like the Giants who have always tended to focus on the current season and let future seasons take care of themselves. That is probably the biggest area in need of philosophy adjustment, IMO. Seems like Zaidi is a guy who hates huge longterm deals so we'll see.
DeleteDumpster dives are pretty much risk free, so if you sign 5 players and 1 exceeds expectations, that's the one you remember whereas if you sign 5 expensive players and 1 is a bust the bust stands out.
Deletevery astute
DeleteDon't forget about the finds they have had with hitters over the past decade, as well: Uribe, Torres, Blanco, and I would count Sandoval in his second run here. But yeah, nothing like Turner, Taylor, or Muncy.
DeleteI would also add that the Giants have been kicking tires of players who showed high walks, low K type of profile, from what I recall, but they haven't developed to the degree that the Dodger's 3 have. Adrianza was that type in the low minors, I think that SS we had in 2018 showed that, the hitter we got from the Yankees showed some of that in rookie ball too, then had that power breakout in 2018. I wish my memory was better, but the Giants have been looking for this type of contact hitter for many years now, just not hitting on any of the guys they looked at.
ogc,
DeleteI have pointed out the Giants success in finding good players of "dumpster dives" over and over, so nobody is forgetting about that. All I was doing her is trying to identify a "type" of player Zaidi might try to go after this offseason by looking for common denominators in the Dodgers "big 3".
Look, ogc. I don't know what kind of fantasy you are living in but pointing to Ehire Adrianza as some kind of evidence the Giants have had the same or similar process to Zaidi is downright ridiculous. Yes, the Giants have had success with "dumpster dives" but I find zero evidence that their processes were in any way similar to the recent Dodgers processes. Remember, there is more than one path to success.
I think one takeaway from analyzing the Turner/Taylor/Muncy run is that Zaidi is probably not thinking as far outside the box as it might seem. He's pretty much following Moneyball orthodoxy and signing players he's already familiar with from his days as Assistant GM for the A's, as Taylor was playing for an AL West team and Muncy was in the A's system.
"long length of the contracts for players age 30 and over" is a problem (sort of taking from your reply above) -- is this why you'd look hard at Harper?
DeleteBoras wants more years so he can get larger than Stanton's $325 million (that was not a FA signing) and not be too crazy, but wouldn't a $350 mill over 14 years ($25 million/yr) be better than a 10-year @ $35 million -- same total but less CBT effect?
I ask that because the way things are these days, Harper may be worth $35 mill(?) for 5 years (healthy), and then less but will we see $40 million contracts by 2025 and paying Harper $25 won't "feel" so bad.
Unless he's broken down at 30 like Aaron Rowand.
I believe I have said several times that while I love Bryce Harper, I don't think the Giants should sign him at the price he is going to command. I would also much rather pay him $40 M/yr X 5 years than $30 M/yr X 14 years.
DeleteThat's an interesting concept.
DeleteYou could extend it 10 more years @ 15M/yr ($350M total for Borass) with opt outs at 2 & 5 but no complete no trade clause. The CBT hit would be (only) $23.3M/yr.
A guy like Harper, unless he falls apart, will always feel he could do better, and test the waters.
I'm a believer that the maximum length of an MLB contract should be for three or four years. I'd rather see teams pay 25% more per year in each of a three or four year contract than be stuck with eight to ten year contracts.
ReplyDeleteThat is true from the team's perspective but players have very short career windows so players are going to try to get a long a deal as possible. Supply and demand. When good players are in short supply they can and will demand the best deal for themselves.
DeleteBTW, any concern about length of contract and it's impact on future payroll is only because of the artificial ceiling the CBT has created. Please don't ever feel sorry for MLB owners!
as more and more players sign big deals and then fall off a performance cliff - especially after they reach early 30's - we should see GM's wise up - very few ballplayers are worth $15M + after they reach age 32 ,,, Sabermetrics will assign max value relative to age
Deleteevery GM should examine the contracts given to players who did not deliver value at tail end of career
GM's have to stop assuming that every star player at age 28 - 30 will not suffer serious performance drop off
After playing 152 games in 2014 & 159 in 2015, 30-yo Yoenis Cespedes played 132 games in 2016, slashed .280/.354/.530/.884, and then signed 4-yr $110 M contract.
DeleteHe's played 119 games since and is on the shelf into 2019, unknown when he'll be back and how he'll be with new heels.
that is a great example. Matt Harvey never signed a Mega Deal - but it would haver been a disaster for any team that had signed him to one
DeleteMatheney was a great catcher - Giants signed him - and poor guy suffered a career ending concussion. Giants signed that Cardinal SP around same time - great guy - but he had peaked before he donned a Giants cap
many many tales
is there an algorithm that has quantified the likelihood that an "older" star player has peaked based on position/age/injuries to date?
i bet you an MIT Grad could create such an Algo - anyone know of an MIT grad in the higher ranks of BB MGMT? (joke)