Tuesday, December 2, 2025

Hot Stove Update: Heating Up

The Hot Stove League is heating up with 3 significant deals reported in the first 2 days of the week leading up to the Winter Meetings.   So what's going on?

The Mets agreed to terms with Devin Williams RHP on a 3 yr/$51 M contract.  The deal includes a $6 M signing bonus paid in 3 installments.  There is also $15 M in deferrals plus a $1 M assignment bonus in the event of a trade.  There does not seem to be in opt-out.  

Devin Williams RHP.  DOB:  9/21/1004.  6' 2", 193 lbs.  

2025(Yankees):  4-6, 4.79, 62 IP, 13.06 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, 18 Saves, 15 Holds, 4 Blown Saves, 2.69 FIP.

Another case of a veteran shut-down closer coming off a down season.  Once again, while the usual peripheral numbers look like it's due to bad luck, if you drill down to the third layer of stats, Williams gave up harder contact than in previous seasons.  The Mets obviously think this is a blip and he'll positively regress to his mean over the next 3 seasons but that's a lot of money being dropped on a Closer who lost his job amid an ERA over 4 last season.  Man! The market for underperforming closers is white hot!

The Angels signed troubled SP Alek Manoah to a 1 yr/$1.95 M contract.  \

Alek Manoah RHP.  DOB:  1/9/1998.  6' 6", 285 lbs.  

2025(MiLB- 4 levels):  1-1, 3.96, 38.2 IP, 8.15 K/9, 5.35 BB/9.  

After bursting on the scene in 2022, Manoah's career fell on hard times.  He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2024 and spent the first half of 2025 rehabbing.  When time came to bring him off the 60-day IL the Blue Jays did not have room and DFA'd him.  The Braves claimed him but then non-tendered him making him a free agent.  It's a little surprising he got a MLB deal at all but the Angels reportedly inquired of the Blue Jays about him in the past.  It's a $2 M lottery ticket that seems like the longest of longshots but stranger things have happened.

The Blue Jays continued to show they are serious about repeating as AL champs by signing Cody Ponce to a 3 yr/$30 M.  Ponce was once a second round draft pick by the Brewers in the 2015 draft(wow! That's like a lifetime ago!).  He got some pre-draft buzz for touching triple digits on the fastball.  Ponce made it to the major leagues but struggled and never found traction.  He went to Japan and also struggled there.  He landed in the KBO and had breakout numbers:  17-1, 1.89, 180.2 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9.  This was accompanied by reports of much improved conditioning and better stuff.  I can understand the excitement here and maybe the BJ's can afford to take a risk on upside but there are real questions about strength of competition here for a guy who is a one season wonder.  The contract is not backbreaking if it doesn't work out.


No comments:

Post a Comment