The Hot Stove League is heating up with 3 significant deals reported in the first 2 days of the week leading up to the Winter Meetings. So what's going on?
The Mets agreed to terms with Devin Williams RHP on a 3 yr/$51 M contract. The deal includes a $6 M signing bonus paid in 3 installments. There is also $15 M in deferrals plus a $1 M assignment bonus in the event of a trade. There does not seem to be in opt-out.
Devin Williams RHP. DOB: 9/21/1004. 6' 2", 193 lbs.
2025(Yankees): 4-6, 4.79, 62 IP, 13.06 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, 18 Saves, 15 Holds, 4 Blown Saves, 2.69 FIP.
Another case of a veteran shut-down closer coming off a down season. Once again, while the usual peripheral numbers look like it's due to bad luck, if you drill down to the third layer of stats, Williams gave up harder contact than in previous seasons. The Mets obviously think this is a blip and he'll positively regress to his mean over the next 3 seasons but that's a lot of money being dropped on a Closer who lost his job amid an ERA over 4 last season. Man! The market for underperforming closers is white hot!
The Angels signed troubled SP Alek Manoah to a 1 yr/$1.95 M contract. \
Alek Manoah RHP. DOB: 1/9/1998. 6' 6", 285 lbs.
2025(MiLB- 4 levels): 1-1, 3.96, 38.2 IP, 8.15 K/9, 5.35 BB/9.
After bursting on the scene in 2022, Manoah's career fell on hard times. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2024 and spent the first half of 2025 rehabbing. When time came to bring him off the 60-day IL the Blue Jays did not have room and DFA'd him. The Braves claimed him but then non-tendered him making him a free agent. It's a little surprising he got a MLB deal at all but the Angels reportedly inquired of the Blue Jays about him in the past. It's a $2 M lottery ticket that seems like the longest of longshots but stranger things have happened.
The Blue Jays continued to show they are serious about repeating as AL champs by signing Cody Ponce to a 3 yr/$30 M. Ponce was once a second round draft pick by the Brewers in the 2015 draft(wow! That's like a lifetime ago!). He got some pre-draft buzz for touching triple digits on the fastball. Ponce made it to the major leagues but struggled and never found traction. He went to Japan and also struggled there. He landed in the KBO and had breakout numbers: 17-1, 1.89, 180.2 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9. This was accompanied by reports of much improved conditioning and better stuff. I can understand the excitement here and maybe the BJ's can afford to take a risk on upside but there are real questions about strength of competition here for a guy who is a one season wonder. The contract is not backbreaking if it doesn't work out.
As a Giants fan, I wouldn't; be happy if the Giants signed Devin Williams to that contract. He lost the closer role for a big part of last season. Theres a connection. Between Mets GM Danid Stearns who was Brewers GM 2015'-2023 when Williams last pitched for the Brewers.
ReplyDeleteI would not want to see the Giants do any of the deals for pitchers we've seen so far. It's almost like there is a bubble in the pitching market and no matter how many of these deals underperform, teams just keep signing them.
DeletePonce was blinking bright on my Giants' radar.
ReplyDeleteSorry to see him off the board.
Apparently the Giants were interested but his price got beyond where they were willing to go. Last year was the only good season of his entire career and it was in the KBO so I don't blame them for bowing out.
DeleteI am thinking about a pitcher who came from the KBO and had success. Merrill Kelly, 3.77 ERA over 1008 inning.
ReplyDeleteFor Cody Pence, Given what we know about Ponce’s 2025 KBO season — 17-1 record, 1.89 ERA, 252 strikeouts, league Triple Crown/Pitcher “Quadruple Crown,” etc.
Re: Cody Pence
He ticks many of the boxes that lined up for successful MLB returns like Kelly:
Dominance at KBO level
Likely refined mechanics, improved pitch-mix & velocity (per scouting reports)
So — there is precedent for someone in Ponce’s shoes coming back and succeeding in MLB. That said: precedent ≠ guarantee. However, I would have gone for it at $10m a season for 3 years. (Minor note- his brother-in-law, George Kittle would be happy to have in San Francisco).
It's the one season wonder part that gives me pause about Ponce. Kelly pitched in the KBO for 4 seasons and improved his K and BB rates each successive season.
DeleteI really wanted the giants to sign Williams but I was thinking he would get a one year prove-it deal in the range of 15 million. We have seen time and time again successful pitchers go to the Yankees, struggle, and then bounce back after leaving. But to echo others, I wouldn’t want the giants to have signed him to that three year deal and obviously the Giants aren’t going to sign any closer to a deal like that. It’s going to be tough for us to compete in the playoffs without a closer. It would be cool if Reggie Crawford came into spring training healthy and is turned into a lefty reliever who can throw almost triple digits. Also would be dope if the Giants converted Birdsong or another young pitcher to reliever in the event that they sign or acquire other established pitchers. Obviously Birdsong would provide way more value if he worked out as a starting pitcher for us but it does seem like a lot of great closers are guys who started out as starters.
ReplyDelete"Man! The market for underperforming closers is white hot!" lol. I was thinking the same thing. Also, the "Birdsong as a closer" has some merit in my mind. He doesn't cost much right now and his brain may better be able to wrap itself around coming in for an inning and throwing it as hard as he can for 10-20 pitches (theoretically) than getting through a batter or two and then having his mind wander into thinking ahead too much and losing his release point. It would depend on his make-up. It might be easier to sustain a repeatable release point if every pitch came out with the same fire-balling intensity. I was thinking the Giants would add a 4-5th starter like a Scherzer and/or a Verlander and call it a Winter, but with Schmitt's new surgery development, it might give them an excuse to add a Bichette, maybe?
ReplyDeleteI think they will find their 4 outfielders from their current stock of 11, so they are likely done in the outfield. Eldridge needs to take next year and learn to catch fly balls (Baby Giraffe Jr.) because Devers is going to get the majority of time over there at first base for the next 4+ years. And I'm betting the back-up catcher duty goes to Rodriguez with Buster taking him under his personal wing and assisting in coaching him up. The bat will play and the defense will have time and support to mature.
Backup catcher sounds like a good way to ruin a good young hitter, but I'm not seeing much of an alternative path to the majors for Rodriguez.
DeleteContracts are going like there is no tomorrow – if 2026 is today, there may not be a tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteIts sure seems like some teams have unlimited amounts of money to spend or else they are run by the dumbest people on Earth.
Delete....which leaves fans of teams who don't operate that way feeling profoundly frustrated.
DeleteThings are so weird, Buster may confound everyone and finish the infield with Bo Bichette...
DeleteOff topic really like the Ron Washington hire by the Giants as infield coach. He's been in baseball for a lot of years as a player. Coach, and manager. Heard stories about the great job he's done working with infielders with various teams. Shows Giants are serious improving their infield defense.
ReplyDelete