Well, what a surprise! Can't say I saw this coming. Still trying to wrap my head around it, but we'll try to unpack it now. FZ reached out to his fave trading partner, Trader Jerry DiPoto of the Mariners, to unload a couple of contracts that were perhaps getting in his way. In return, he picks up a former Cy Young Award winner who is coming off Tommy John surgery and will likely start the season on the 60-day IL. The Giants also send $6 M cash to the Mariners so the money for 2024 is exactly even. So what is the benefit to the Giants here?
1. After the Jung-Hoo Lee signing, the Giants had a glut of OF's. While Mitch Haniger is a candidate to bounce back after yet another injury plagued season, his performance was not at all impressive when he did play and he is not getting younger and the injuries keep piling up. He seemed to be the obvious odd-man out in a crowded OF situation. Moving him opens up the possibility of acquiring another OF through trade or free agency and it also potentially opens a DH slot to accommodate J. D. Davis in the event of a Matt Chapman signing.
2. While Ray is coming off TJ surgery, if you were betting on a player returning to full strength and performance, I think you would bet on a former Cy Young winner coming back from TJ over the oft-injured Haniger and a pitcher who is coming off platelet-rich plasma injections, which I mean, have those ever worked?
3. There is possibly another angle that I haven't seen anyone mention. I haven't been able to confirm, but I think the CBT payroll is calculated based on players on the 40-man roster. Robbie Ray will almost certainly start the season on the 60-day IL which removes him from the 40-man roster until he is activated which lowers the CBT hit the Giants would take for his salary. If this is correct, does it portend them taking their payroll spending right up to the threshold?
While the trade is not a slam-dunk win for the Giants it may facilitate future moves and I believe Ray's likely upside is greater than either Mitch Haniger or Anthony DeSclafani.
BTW, both Haniger and Ray has opt-out clauses in their contracts at the end of 2024. Again, I would say Ray is the more likely of the two to be in position to opt out, although if he doesn't, his contract is for an additional year beyond Haniger's and is for more money per year.
Well, I like this! Imagine the Giants hang close in the first half and then bring on Cobb and Ray to bolster the rotation in the second half!
ReplyDeleteThis trade made me laugh out loud when I saw it since it was shocking. I like it too, I would trade Haniger and Anthony D for at least 1/2 year of Ray because of Ray's upside. Hopefully his TJ recovery goes well A rotation led by Webb, a healthy Ray, and Kyle Harrison could be interesting. Even if he opts in, the Giants have minimal payroll commits after 2024. Just saw FZ say on a zoom call that this trade will give them more flexibility to look at future trades and free agent signings. This off season is finally getting interesting!
ReplyDeleteI want to like this, but Ray's opt out makes it a little sketch. Seems more like addition by subtraction in the immediate future, providing some roster flexibility. It is nice Farhan made a move, even if the high upside end of it (Ray pitches lights out in the 2nd half) is thwarted by the opt-out.
ReplyDeleteI guess i have a different feeling.....I think this move shows a few things I don't like…One,.FZ admitting that he and the Giants are a second tier organization and can't compete with the big boys for FA; 2) admitting two big mistakes in Desclafini and Haniger. (is Conforto next?). 3) Due to inadequacy in the front office the past two seasons, and in acquiring a risky player who will not pitch until the summer, (ala Cobb) the Giants may be punting on this year; 4) this move illustrates the Giants fear of giving out huge and long contracts to Snell and others (which may not be wrong) as well as FZ trying to show that while he is a failure in acquiring big time FAs he is smarter and more innovative than anybody in the room (which we know is wrong even if he has his moments) ….
ReplyDeleteAll that said, there is definitely addition by subtraction here with those guys gone and the salaries wash for now…. Rob Ray and his 25 mill salary for the next three years is a huge roll of the dice ..with high upside and high downside….Guy is 32 and coming off a major injury and hasn't pitched since 2022 and won’t pitch until July…..can he ever come back?..If he can come back to the three previous healthy years (175-195 IP) the Giants got themselves a good 2nd -3rd starter..but do you really see that happening? I've seen enough injuries and incompetence from guys like Cobb (injuries), Tony D, Wood, Stribling.. I don’t know..maybe I’m just battered!
SteveVA
There are plenty of pitchers who have come back from TJ at age 32 and been as good or better than before. Doesn't always happen but yeah, I can see it happening.
DeleteI like this deal. Wish Haniger worked out but Ray is a nice pitcher to bet on. Opens flexibility with an extra roster spot. Let’s see what Farhan does next. Hoping we get one of Snell or Imanaga.
ReplyDeleteIt's also two 40-man slots opening against one new which goes away when Ray hits the IL
ReplyDeleteIf nothing else Ray may come in to help avoid an end-of-season slump
They got rid of Disco who was cooked and Haniger who looked about as bad as anyone could last year with a bat in their hands. Ray however is more than likely never going to contribute anything significant as he will come back from TJ after the AS break and like most will likely struggle. If he shows any signs of success he will opt out. Typical FZ move where the upside is minimal and he basically traded 2 bad players for 1 slightly better player. Best case scenario is that Ray doesn’t opt out but rehabs to where he is a solid piece in the rotation in 2025 which obviously doesn’t help us in 2024. At least we don’t have to suffer through anymore Disco starts or Haniger AB’s but this does little to improve the team in 2024 unless it is a precursor to more rotation pieces but let’s not kid ourselves, this is likely the biggest “move” they will make!
ReplyDeleteNot sure why you say Ray will most likely struggle after coming back from TJ. Yes, it could happen but there are plenty of examples out there of pitchers, even older pitchers coming back as strong or stronger than before. As for who else they might add, I will wait until the Hot Stove flickers completely out before I get all Debbie Downer on the Giants results.
DeleteNot typically out of the gate. No matter who the pitcher or their age, the first few months coming back are always rough and it’s usually the following year that the pitcher is either as good or better than before surgery. That means we shouldn’t expect much this year from Ray thus the doubts that this improves us in 2024. Like I mentioned as well, if he does come back strong then expect an opt out as he will be worth much more than 2/50 if he shows success right away. Best case scenario is he doesn’t come back strong so that he doesn’t opt out and we have him hopefully healthy and strong for 25 and 26. Other best case scenario is he comes back in the second half and does well and helps us get to the playoffs but then expect the opt out.
DeleteI think you are peddling misinformation here. There are scholarly articles in the Orthopedic literature showing average time to return to performance(RTP) of 12 months and Return to Full Performance(RTFP) of 15 months. Ray will be at at 15 months on August 3. I think FZ's best-case scenario is Ray opts out after 2024.
DeleteThanks for that last comment, Doc, and insight on CBT. If true, that could be very interesting... This all looks like a way to clear that outfield log jam of a player that would have otherwise been very difficult to move and maybe get something to play/tinker with in Ray. A gamble for sure if Ray opts in, but I'm sure there are worse things. If Ray performs even semi-decent, he easily opts out. Again, the outfield logjam and dead weight we all saw from a mile away just got a little easier.
DeleteRob in Vancouver
As I said earlier I really like this trade. Feels like we turned nothing into potentially something!
ReplyDeleteI did a quick jot on a notepad of what our roster might look like as is. Is it just me or does Chapman not feel like the offensive addition we need, especially for the likely price? SP seems like a much bigger priority still. I kinda like the idea of seeing what the young position players can do with opportunity too. I hate the idea of a vet taking ABs from matos and Luciano
I still am not thrilled with the idea of a Chapman signing. Giants still need to add at least 1 reliable SP.
DeleteThe offense addition we need for what? To tread water this year and have, at best, a .500 season..That is what FZ is building towards with injured pitchers, reclamations to come and mediocre bats/FAs..Is the fan base going to like another year of striving for mediocrity? I can see a lot of empty seats...If you can't go big, which FZ can't, the next best thing is to tank and just ply the kids and be honest with the fan base about it, not middle of the road morass
DeleteSteveVA
....unless the kids take a step forward. Plus the Hot Stove League is still playing ball.
DeleteDOC - very true that the off-season is far from done..but from FZ's words and deals, it seems like .500 and "not sucking" is his goal...I hope I m wrong big time.....And, yes, "unless the kids take a step forward"..I m fine with going with the kids and the future and "hoping" but FZ should be open about what the season will now be about..Fat chance..But I think the fan base is pretty smart and will know the low ceiling
DeleteSteveVA
Gotta say, FZ pointing to Ramos and Matos as internal options is not reassuring. They would both young players a tear-down/rebuild team could commit playing time to and see if they can step up but a huge risk for a team selling itself as a contender.
DeleteIt was so much easier to just sign Gausman sigh
ReplyDeleteHindsight vision is alway perfect. What about Carlos Rodon? Johnny Cueto? Madison Bumgarner? Matt Cain? Signing pitchers to very large long term contract is risky business and more don't work out than do.
DeleteI’ve been reading reports from both fanbases and the overwhelming majority of M’s fans are happy with this trade. It saves their team $50 mil over next 3 years and based on the chatter none feel like Ray is ever going to return to form after TJ AND flexor tendon surgery. Most Giants fans are just happy to see Haniger and Disco go and with good reason. Still the team that is taking the biggest risk here are the Giants as Ray could be done and we could be on the hook for $50 million in dead money. He could also return to form or better but if he doesn’t then this was a horrible move by FZ.
ReplyDeleteThe Giants took on the biggest risk from a purely monetary perspective. I think FZ believes, and I personally believe, that of the 3 players involved Ray is the most likely to return to full performance. That may be a big part of his calculation here.
Delete"Spending money on the wrong players just because you can is a prescription for disaster"
DeleteThat was a quote from you Doc a few days ago in response to my suggestion of spending willy nilly on any FA who is willing to come here. I promise I'm not trying to pick a fight but I don't see a ton of difference as far as financial risk is concerned between this deal and spending on any FA in the top 15.
There are many ways this deal could play out but one thing is for certain and that is that Ray will not pitch to start the season and likely till after the AS break. That doesn't really help us this year especially if no other moves are made to bolster the rotation which is how I read the tea leaves from FZ's comments. He thinks that Stripling, Hjelle, Harrison, Winn, etc. can carry the load until Cobb and Ray come back to save the second half. As the old saying goes, you can't win the division in the first month or two of the season but you can definitely lose it. If no further moves are made, this will effectively make it the most likely scenario that by the time Cobb and Ray are back we are already out of playoff contention.
We just resigned Donovan Walton BTW so back to same old same old as far as moves go. If the Giants have another mediocre year or hopefully tank so that we can finally rebuild, does that mean that FZ gets the boot or will they really let the 3 year extension play out after seeing more of the same from FZ and little to no improvement yet again?
Well, that is taking my comment a bit out of context. 1. In this case there is both a subtraction of bad contracts as well as taking on. 2. Ray's contract, at worst, is 3 years, not 7 or 10. I agree FZ still has to add at least one reliable SP before the start of the season. If he doesn't, this trade doesn't make much sense. And LOL Donovan Walton. Yeah, that name brings back nightmarish memories.
DeleteDoc on a scale from 1 to 10 I rate this a "Meh"!
ReplyDeleteRichard in Winnipeg
P.S. Amen to what could shouda BEEN signing Gausman!
As my Scottish Gramma said to mme " If wishes were horses beggars would ride"
It definitely can't be the last big transaction of the Hot Stove League season.
DeleteHa ha! That was one of my mother's fave sayings when I was growing up too.
DeleteThe trade makes sense from a roster – management perspective.
ReplyDeleteNext: Conforto.
Ha ha! If FZ can find a way to dump Conforto and Stripling, that would really be something. I have to admit it's a bit odd to dump bad contracts by taking on even more monetary risk but again, I think Ray is the most likely of the 3 to return to full performance.
DeleteI’m with SteveVA, just do a rebuild already so we can get a few top 5 picks to really build this team around. I wish they would have done this 5 years ago instead of whatever you call the last 5 years of the wool being pulled over Giants fans eyes! We could have had Corbin Carrol or Gunnar Henderson already or someone other than the lottery ticket draft picks FZ makes. If we rebuild we also actually get to see if anything we have in the farm is worth their salt which we will need when the young studs we draft with top 5 picks come up in 4-5 years!
ReplyDelete....and to rub salt in the wounds here, the headline on sfgiants.com is "Giants Make Splash; Snag Ray From Mariners." LOL!
ReplyDeleteMaybe his nickname should be "Splash'. More to come, if you look at the good side of any of these signings/ trades, they look good
ReplyDeleteThey could have drafted Corbin Carroll but chose Hunter Bishop instead.
ReplyDeleteIn retrospect, Hunter Bishop was a bad draft pick but I personally had him ranked several spots higher than where the Giants drafted him so I can't honestly say I would have selected a different player with that pick. Even the best scouting directors have bad drafts. When 2 of 3 are complete busts like Bishop and Bednar I do think you have to start asking questions about your evaluation processes.
DeleteThe draft pick I'm most disappointed with is Joey Bart. They could have drafted Alec Bolm or Jonathan India instead. When a player you draft 2nd overall, doesn't develop into a starter, that hurts. That said the Giants can't afford to miss on Marco Luciano. Good news is they have young players ready to contribute in 2024 led by Kyle Harrison.
ReplyDeleteIn defense of the Bart pick, I do not recall Bohm or India being obviously better picks at the time or even nearly as good and the rest of that draft is looking like one huge bust. I do wonder if the Giants could have done a better job of developing Bart. I still think he's going to be at least a league average catcher someday, just probably not with the Giants which is a shame.
DeleteI remember Bart being the right pick at #2 for the Giants since the Tigers took Casey Mize #1 overall. Sometimes things happen to hurt players development. Bart was called up in 2020 before he was MLB ready since Buster opted out to take care of family which is a good reason. It probably hurt Bart's development, it's a shame that he may need to move on. Even Casey Mize is recovering from TJ surgery, but he was the right pick for the Tigers also.
DeleteI could see a scenario where Bart gets traded and thrives with a new team while Bailey's offensive production craters and he goes back to the minors. That would be a true disaster. Only saving grace would be Blake Sabol starting the season getting more catching experience at AAA and the triumvirate of Sugastey, Perez and Morgan climbing the ladder at AA.
DeleteBest case scenario is both Bart and Bailey thrive. Melvin said on a recent TK podcast that a decision hasn't been made yet on Bart's future with the team . I'm not sure if another team will give Bart a chance. He's a hard worker but hit so poorly in AAA. Hope I'm wrong. Didn't like when Bailey admitted he was tired last season. He needs to come to spring training in great shape since they'll expect him to catch 120 games. If he doesn't then the Giants might have a problem, but having Melvin as manager should help Bailey succeed.
DeleteManaea signs with Mets for 2/$28 with opt out at 2024. I think I am ok with that. Still not sold he has it figured out enough to be consistent and gives the Giants a chance to try someone else in that role that could have an impact longer term.
ReplyDeleteBrutal pitchers market from team perspective.
Delete