Farhan Zaidi and the Giants pivoted quickly from their futile pursuit of Shohei Ohtani to address their stated need for a true CF. They agreed to terms with Korean KBO League star Jung Hoo Lee. This is a move they have telegraphed for awhile with well publicized scouting trips to Korea by GM Pete Putila. The deal, 6 years/$113 M comes in at over twice the MLBTR prediction of 5 yr/$50 M but so far they have been low on almost every signing so apparently inflation is impacting the 0.01% too. Terms seem to be straightforward with no deferred money and a single opt-out after 4 seasons. The AAV works out to approximately $18 M which leaves about $48 M for more signings if the Giants are willing to go to the CBT threshold.
So, what did the Giants just acquire? Here's the capsule summary:
Jung Hoo Lee CF. DOB: 8/220/2023. B-L, T-R. 6'0", 171 lbs.
2022(KBO): .349/.421/.575, 23 HR, 5 SB, 10.5 BB%, 5.1 K%, 627 PA.
2023(KBO): .318/.406/.455, 6 HR, 6 SB, 12.7 BB%, 5.9 K%, 387 PA.
2024(Steamer Proj): .291/.353/.434, 11 HR, 6 SB, 506 PA, fWAR= 2.7.
Projections for players transitioning from the KBO to MLB are tricky with some historic variance but there have been enough successful transitions that an adjusted projection is not totally throwing at a dart board. If Lee truly gives plus D in CF and can put up a batting line close to the Steamer projection, it will be a fantastic signing. If he stays healthy and bats leadoff the same rate stats would likely propel him above 3.0 fWAR.
Of course the outstanding stat for Lee is his fantastic and unusual reversed K/BB. Expect the K-rate to increase some against high velocity MLB pitching but he does seem to have exceptional bat control and on-base skills. I expect he will be the full-time, non-platoon CF and bat leadoff in the lineup.
One concern is he lost a big chunk of last season with an ankle fracture which required surgery(hmm....sounds vaguely familiar), but he did return to play at the end of the season and Peppermint Pete's scouting trip included his final game of the season after his return so at least Pete must have been convince by what he saw that he was fully recovered and it would not be a problem going forward.
So let's all send out a big welcome to our newest Forever Giant, Jung Hoo Lee!
Super happy about this one. Your Domino's are starting to fall, Doc!
ReplyDeleteWith addition of Lee, who starts season in SF & who in Sac (& who gets traded) among Conforto, Haniger, Yastrzemski, Slater, Matos, Ramos, Meckler? Seems Meckler has no path with this franchise, and Ramos maybe seems more interesting on a team with Lee? What's Lee joining mean for McCray?
ReplyDeleteI don't think Conforto or Haniger are tradable right now, maybe midseason if they get off to a good start? Slater and YtY have the most trade value. Matos, Ramos and Meck have options. McCray made it through the rule 5 draft. He probably does not have much trade value now but that could change if he gets off to a good start in AA, which is a big challenge.
DeleteI’m happy with the signing. If the defense is legit I think we can live with the growing pains if there are any for him with the bat. Yamamoto next please.
ReplyDeleteI’m also curious how this will impact the logjam of outfielders we have like anon said above. My guess is Matos on the trade block but no clue what the options are for the young guys.
I like the signing too. Would feel a little better once he passes his physical! We get to watch Padres games in Hawaii and really like Kim. He plays a great SS and came around offensively. There was an adjustment from KBO that Kim went thru. Heard Kim and Lee are good friends. If Lee can come close to the player Kim is I'll be happy.
DeleteThough there are concerns like Doc mentioned, I think LEE could work out very well for the Giants and is a good official start to the off-season. But, it's only as good as the next move(s)!!!!..And while I thought there should be two FA pitchers with one to go near the top with Webb, the market may just be saying you will only have one by FA (Yamamotto? SNell? or do you have to go to the next tier down????) and BY TRADE, either one of another pitcher (say Burnes or Glasnow or ?????) OR a Big Youngish Hitter (Arazorena for example)...and the Giants have a lot of assets to get anything done with prospects like Harrison (gulp), Matos (will there ever be enough power for corner OF?), Meckler (was in demand last year), Winn, Black, Whisenhunt, Luciano (gulp), Schmidt and younger guys .....as well as guys like Slater and Yaz..and then there's Joey Bart!!! ..Of course, I am probably dead wrong and they just go with Chapman at 3B, Manea at SP, Jimmy Rollins , I mean Tim Anderson at SS although I'm thinking SS could be a young committee of Luciano (if not dealt), Schmidt, Fitzjarrad with a cheap vet by the end of off-season.. LEE was easy, the next few days for Yamamotto or Snell are difficult and key and more of statement on if FZ can close the deal .
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
I suspect the Giants way overbid on Lee to ensure they get one of the FAs they want (or, need for the fan base). They'll probably have to do the same to land Yamamato, and the owners might be willing to not be outbid again because he'd surely give them more relevance in the division and playoffs.
ReplyDeleteChapman might be solid at third for a few years, but I'd rather they look more toward the future and put Schmidt there to learn and grow — he won a minor league gold glove last year. If they can get Hoskins for first, then Wade and Davis (selling high) could be in a trade bundle for a top-end pitcher or solid hitter.
sbtokyo
If they land Yamamoto, they can fill in the rest of the blanks with almost anybody and it will be a successful offseason.
DeleteThe outfield glut will also fill the DH slot. & PH.
ReplyDeleteMatos is 21. Ramos and Meckler are 23. They all plus Fitzgerald have options. (YtY does also which would be weird.)
Haniger and to some extent YtY seem to be injury prone. Injuries do happen.
Slater is the RHB against LHP.
With roster space (?), they can platoon a lot of positions and have good reserves playing everyday in Sacramento.
I read the story in the athletic on the Ohtani courtship and I think it’s mostly bluster. And while it’s nice that the giants were open to matching the deal he ended up getting. Reading between the lines I do think it’s strange that they didn’t try to go above it. 460ish million in present value isn’t as high as the $500m number peopled expected.
ReplyDeletePlus I thought it was obvious that if the Giants wanted the player they would have to make the strongest offer by a lot. Otherwise I find it obvious that all things being equal he would pick the Dodgers or another team.
It smells to me like damage control. I am tired of these stories saying the giants matched the offer. Because its way too easy to say that when you loose out post facto.
- Fan
All probably true, but I am actually relieved they didn't go there. As great of a player as Ohtani is, I believe this contract is not going to age well and maybe the Dodgers can afford $68 M/yr for 10 years when he's not even playing anymore but I would feel mighty uncomfortable if the Giants were committed to that.
DeleteFan--I agree with all of that.. seems to be self serving hot air but I think Giant fans know better. No problem with them not getting Ohtani, it was never gonna happen...the reality was it wasn't a "great try", it was wasted time and effort......Now, with Ohtani helping to court Yamamoto, it's likely that the same thing will happen again..If the Giants wanted/want Yamamoto they should have or should blown his and MLB's doors off..If you don't, clam up when you don't get him..Or the next guy (Snell??) after that......Sorry......Anyways, I still have a sliver of hope for Yamamoto!!!!
DeleteSteveVA
Maybe part of the reason FZ felt like the Giants had to be involved with Ohtani to ensure the Dodgers over payed for him? Same with Yamamoto?
DeleteI get the feeling that if the Giants offered $800 million, he would have still signed with the Dodgers for $700 million.
DeleteTechnically the Giants matched the offer but Andy McCulloch in the Athletic felt that they weren't close. It was kind of a dog and pony show.
DeleteHow about this as a thought? Giants trade Conforto and a prospect or two for Ha Seong Kim of the Padres. The Giants might have to eat some of Conforto's 18m. Kim makes $7m. Put Kim at short. Lee has a better year with his fellow Korean and buddy on the team. Padres need outfielders since they traded Soto and Grisham.
ReplyDeleteIf FZ could pull this one off, I would be OK with it. I really like Kim as a player. IMO, he was the only Padres player with his head completely in the game last year.
DeleteI like this idea, but can Kim play better short than Schmitt or Luciano? Bold move would be to package Estrada with Conforto for the complete salary dump and play Kim at 2B. Haniger and Yaz at outfield corners, Chapman and Hoskins at infield corners, Snell, Webb, Harrison, Manaea and Cobb/Disco SP rotation.
DeleteThis sounds great, but prompted me to wonder-- when is the last time two division rivals made a significant trade? I feel like the Giants recently tend to trade with Tampa or Seattle more commonly. (Let's not mention the prospects that we traded for rentals in the late 2000's)
ReplyDeleteAgree, we'll probably need to wait for Kim to be a FA after this season to bring him in to join his buddy in SF.
DeleteBuster is not helping
ReplyDeleteBuster Posey says San Francisco's perceived crime, drug problems an issue for free agents
Jace Evans, USA TODAY
Wed, Dec 13, 2023, 6:32 PM CST·1 min read
169
Dodgers ink Shohei Ohtani to gigantic 10-year, $700 million contractScroll back up to restore default view.
The San Francisco Giants have missed out on several marquee free agents in recent seasons, the latest apparently being Shohei Ohtani.
One franchise legend, recently retired star catcher Buster Posey, says the perception of the city may be playing a role in the team's failures to land a game-breaking star in free agency.
"Something I think is noteworthy, something that unfortunately keeps popping up from players and even the players' wives is there's a bit of an uneasiness with the city itself, as far as the state of the city, with crime, with drugs,” Posey said in an interview with The Athletic.
"Whether that's all completely fair or not, perception is reality," Posey added. "It's a frustrating cycle, I think, and not just with baseball. Baseball is secondary to life and the important things in life. But as far as a free-agent pursuit goes, I have seen that it does affect things."
Doc, not a good message from the Giants poster boy.
Seems to be a Greg Johnson acolyte.
Richard in Winnipeg
I'll give Buster the benefit of the doubt and say this a rookie mistake for the newest member of the ownership group. He did say it was a perception of others rather than what he believes himself but I wish he had been stronger about articulating why he disagrees with the perception and why he and Kristen decided to move back after moving to Georgia for just one year.
DeleteReally tough to hear Posey go there, he should know that that "perception" is not all that organic. Now, he's just hammered it home for anyone on the fence! Ughh... I was just there in early October after not being there for many, many years, thought it was as beautiful as ever! Even took photos all around the park to show the naysayers.
DeleteThough, I seriously doubt it had anything to do with Ohtani not picking the Giants.
And, yeah, why did Posey move back?
So with Glasnow and Margot traded to the smart, rich and fearless Dodgers while all the other big clubs such as the Yanks, Mets, Phils, Red Sox, Jays likely to leave the "we really do try hard" Giants in the dust and negative comments about the city of SF being spread in the sports media, this is turning into a real clusterfudge for the Giants...And the poor performance of FZ and Kaplan the last two years is all part of it also..Do players WANT to come here???...What do they do next? Fail on Snell and then go to Option D in FA where players settle for the Giants like last years Fantastic Four?? May leave trading your assets as the only way to get a significant player...Still hope for the best, which is Yamamoto, but....
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
Buster's gaffe may end up actually help reverse the negative perception of San Francisco perpetuated by right-wing political media. I am seeing a lot of Giants players and fans coming coming out of the proverbial woodwork to defend the city and region.
Delete...and I'm still not sure why we are all still wringing our collective hands over a dramatic overpay for Ohtani by the Dodgers.
DeleteYou heard it here first: Lee's contract will perform positively for the Giants while Ohtani's will perform negatively.
DeleteI wasn't really referring to Buster's statements--which have some truth to them--but the media/social media running with tweets/x's from FAs like Rowdy Telez saying the same thing..Also, my field had a huge national Conference in SF recently and many people chose not to go due to the perception/reality of SF also....As for OHTANI, it was never gonna happen..Yamamoto OTOH could have been and still may be a target..You want him, blow his doors off....it's what you have to do..although beating the NYs/Phillies/TOR may be impossible....Back to reality, LEE is nice little player, I like it but they need a bigger bat and a big time pitcher..but you can not win, if you do not play..err..pay...Will the Giants?? We'll see...
DeleteSteveVA