Well, this isn't good! So those meetings Yoshinobu Yamamoto requested with the Mets and Yankees? Looks now like those might have been a misdirection play to get the Dodgers to up their offer which was reported to be in the $250 M range to a mind boggling 12 years/$325 M. That brings the total amount of money the Dodgers have committed to around the Hot Stove to over $1.1 B, that's right, B stands for billion to just 3 players.
Make no mistake, this one is the killer. Ohtani is an incredibly expensive DH and Tyler Glasnow is an injury-prone pitcher. Dodgers can have them. I really had my heart set on Yamamoto being the centerpiece of the Giants Hot Stove League season. Now, not only does that not happen but he goes to our bitter rivals and that is very tough to swallow. On an intellectual level I'm thinking the success rate of mega-contracts for pitchers is extremely low, but on an emotional level, he was so perfect for what the Giants need to get to the next level.
So where does FZ and the Giants go now? If they can get Blake Snell LHP they should sign him and another SP. I'm thinking Marcus Stroman who seems to really like the Giants organization or another Japanese pitcher, Shoto Imanaga LHP. There are also several pretty good pitchers reportedly on the trading block such as Corbin Burnes RHP, Shane Bieber RHP and Dylan Cease RHP. There are a lot of really good lefty hitters in the NL West. How about Snell and Imanaga?
Oh! And F*** the Dodgers!
Well as mentioned in earlier post it's tough when several big market teams were bidding on Yamamoto. I'm hoping to see a flurry of moves before Christmas hopefully a couple involving the Giants now that Yamamoto is finally signed. This off season was dragging along.
ReplyDeleteAgree with everything you said Doc..In a vacuum, not getting the ungettble (for the Giants) Yamamoto doesn't bother me...The Bums getting him is another story!...LIke you, as I mentioned in the other thread, I always thought they should go after Snell (I hope they have been showing him love), another FA pitcher (Stroman?? or the other Japanese guy)..and use their young pitching/OF prospects, an MLB OF, Joey Bart for a good youngish bat or SP if they can't sign two. I'd still be happy with all of that to go along with the solid but by themselves only keep the Giants below .500 Lee and Murphy moves
ReplyDeleteThat said, while I’m not gonna bury FZ yet, the continually whiffing on pie in the sky Star FAs, wasting time where it shouldn't be wasted on fools errands only to say and whine that you tried but in truth were never gonna blow the opposition out of the water with an offer----which unfortunately is what it would take for the Giants given their losing ways under FZ--- has got to end. Put up or shut up Farhan……Anyways, all this failure and media/social media reports of it only adds to the real and/or perceived futility of a Giant organization poorly run by FZ over the past few years which feeds the futility of their FA searches. A vicious cycle that badly needs to be broken.
Now, if in desperation, FZ is able to somehow sign Snell, Stroman/Imanga and trade for a bat, I'll gladly eat a monthly diet of crow!
SteveVA
We will never know how much FZ's pursuits raised the ante for other teams but yeah, the frustration is palpable.
DeleteWell spoken, put up or shut up FZ. This really hurts. Started enjoying baseball @ 14 listening to Lonn and Russ on the radio in 1958. Witnessed the highs of Mays, McCovey and the 3 world series. This really hurts. Guess we needed a low before we get another high.
DeleteThe thing that irritates me is that on the rebound, they usually spend more money on broken down, over 30, unathletic players than they would have spent on Ohtani and Yamamoto combined. I think I've read on this board that their pivot players acquired last season ended up totally over $90 million in salary. We will likely see Stripling 2.0, Conforto 2.0, or La Stella redux.
DeleteThey should not be making statement like "we will not be outbid" or "we are devoting our whole heart and finances". As far as I can tell, three teams submitted higher bids for Yamamoto than the Giants and the Giants matched the Dodgers offer for Ohtani (technically, not "outbid" but not a superior deal, all other things considered). Fans pay attention when a POBO makes statments like these that seem intended to appease an angry fanbase but in reality are statments that really don't mean anything. It doesn't cost anyone anything to make high bids that are not accepted.
DeleteI agree the posturing does not help their cause. I also agree that FZ needs to stay disciplined through the process. It's OK to overspend on a guy you really believe in but if you miss, spending that money just because you have it to spend can end up worse than doing nothing.
DeleteWere those statements that "we will not be outbid" and "we are devoting our whole heart and finances" reported by baseball reporters or said in public? I agree that the Giants shouldn't be making those kinds of statements in public. I thought they've done a better job of not saying too much in public like they did last year, which made last off season more upsetting
DeleteDisappointed but not surprised by the Yamamoto deal. I expect Farhan to move quickly and get a notable signing.
ReplyDeleteSnell and Stroman/Imanaga would give us a fun rotation. I’m all for that.
F*** the Dodgers is right - they make me sick. I hope they choke on bad karma for displacing all those nice people from Chavez Ravine to build their stadium.
ReplyDeleteThanks Doc for my early morning surprise!
ReplyDeleteI am going to keep my comments to reiterating what I have said before about Farhan.
He does not know what a baseball player looks like.
How can he, he has never played the game.
He learned about being a slide rule bean counter under the Wizard in Oakland.
He watch how to spend money in Los Angeles.
Not ever sure what he brought to the table discussing how to build a team other then maybe being great at doing power point presentation filed with graphs and numbers and metrics; that left the ownership dazed and confused > who ultimately signed up rudder less management skills.
Farhan is not yet ready for big boy pants.
Buster is nice window dressing in a playerr interview meeting, but he is not yet ready for prime time.
Sabes where are you pal? Oh yeah helping the Yankees now.
Richard in Winnipeg
We've seem to have gone from a consensus of "in Farhan we trust" to "Farhan can't do anything right". The truth is almost certainly somewhere in between. As I have said, absolutely everything went right in 2021 and everything went wrong last season. I think it's possible that some positive regressions, a couple of second tier FA signings and a couple more reclamation projects could get the Giants into the postseason which is the only reasonable goal given the Dodgers overwhelming talent level.
Delete...er.....We seem to have gone.......
DeleteFrom a baseball perspective hard to see either deal turning out favorably for the dodgers long term. 12 years for a pitcher smaller than Lincecum and 10 years for another coming off his second TJ. But, from a business perspective they cornered the market in LA and Japan for the foreseeable future making the contracts a moot point. I guess the only silver lining is I hate the dodgers even more.
ReplyDeleteI think it may be time foe MLB to think about real salary caps -the type that the NFL has. The mega market teams aren’t really afraid to spend over the current thresholds when the right players are available . I imagine that the Giants did make a similar offer but players and agents like the biggest markets because of the additional exposure and earning potential that the larger markets provide. Also, LA certainly has its share of crime and other social issues so I don’t think SF was alone in that regard. MLB is dependent upon competition and when a team can simply buy talent beyond what other teams can, competition (fair) suffers . I know mine is not the most popular opinion- big media, agents and players all would fight to preserve the current rules but the majority of Teams suffer and are not able to compete like small market teams in the NFL.
ReplyDeleteProbably never going to be a hard cap and I'm not a fan of the NFL cap system anyway. I do think there needs to be stronger penalties for busting through the CBT threshold and the extreme deferments in Ohtani's contract should not be allowed.
DeleteTo clarify on deferments. They should be allowed by without the accounting tricks to avoid the CBT tax. The Dodgers hit on the CBT should be $70 M/yr for 10 years.
DeleteI agree on the salary cap. When I was a kid in the 70s and 80s, any team could go to the series any year and baseball was the national sport. Now there are teams like the A's and 10 others who have salary thresholds hovering around or less than the Ohtani/Yamamoto contracts. Its not fun to watch this or follow. The only thing I still enjoy is Dr. B's minor league takes.
DeleteThank you, Anon. I've been thinking about this year's DrB's Giants Top 50 Prospects list. In the past, I could be reasonably confident there would not be any signficant trades after the Winter Meetings but that's not the case anymore. Will probably have to post my list knowing that it could change dramatically by the start of spring training and even beyond.
DeleteIt’s a bummer that the Giants wiffed again on another big name FA, but not a surprise. I’m sure the Giants made a great offer. Even if they outbid the other teams, though, I still think they lose.
ReplyDeleteThe reality is big name FAs won’t sign with the Giants until they are confident the team can be seriously competitive. The Giants are an average team at best right now and likely ranked 4th in their division.
Until FZ or someone else can cobble together a good team and turn the Giants prospect pipeline into the Rays, Astros, Dodgers, etc., the Giants won’t be an attractive landing spot of the top FAs.
-TK
This narrative may be a bit overused right now. The Phillies weren't a powerhouse when Bryce Harper picked them. The Rangers were a year or two away when Seager and Semien signed with them. I do think the Dodgers have a "'superteam" aura about them right now and elite free agents have more off-field business opportunities in major media markets like LA and NY.
DeleteTK- you hit the nail on the head. Top level FA want to win, and the Giants are not a winning organization now- either on the field or in the management suite. Farhan and ownership has criminally mis-managed this franchise from the jewel that it was to an embarrassingly irrelevant afterthought in the baseball world. Until the organization is sold to an owner who is committed to winning and willing to spend the money that it takes to do so, the Giants will remain an embarrassment. And hating on the Dodgers because they do have ownership that knows how to win and will spend their $ to do so, is a waste of jealous energy. The only leverage we as fans have is to vote with our wallets. Only when the Johnson family feels the economic pain will they make a move to sell. Keep you fingers crossed that Joe Lacob doesn't buy a baseball team before that happens!
DeleteIIRC, neither Harper, Seager, or Semien had any serioius suitors among the "big market" teams. If the circumstances are right, the Giants can land a big fish. They did last year with Correa, even though that deal fell apart for health reasons (which now seem justified based on the year Correa had).
DeleteI do think the Giants can sign one of these big free agents. but it will either be because other big teams are uninterested and/or the Giants are in better shape to compete in the future.
-TK
It has always been the case that if a free agent really wants to play in LA or NY, that's where they are going to go as long as the pay is even close to equal. I reject the notion that the Giants can or should "blow" those teams "out of the water" with any. The Ohtani contract would be terrible for the Giants and I'm not sure about Yamamoto's even though I had my heart set on him coming to the Giants. I sure as heck do not wish they had made a 10/$360 M or 10/$400 M contract like some commenters are pushing. I still think there are excellent free agents out there who will sign with the Giants. FZ just needs to keep his head down and keep making strong offers.
DeleteThe thing is, unless the Giants finally "put up" to their needs (on the filed and the perception of them and their front office) and their convictions instead of not doing whatever it takes, the same narrative will likely apply to Snell and Imanga and we end up with another round of Stribling, Maneas, Confortos, and Hanigers and the team is in the same place next off season.. The Losing (off and on the field) cycle needs to be broken and winning and signing some semblance of star (snell the only one left) will help and go hand in hand..And it's past time to deal prospects for what you can't fill via FA to facillitate that change and cycle breaking
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
I agree the start at the top and work down free agent strategy is not working. For instance, it seemed pretty obvious to most of us several days ago Yamamoto was going to sign with either the Dodgers or one of the NY teams. IDK if Snell was signable at that point but FZ maybe should have checked off YY and gone hard for Snell much earlier?
DeleteBut I continue to push back against the idea that the Giants must always overpay. That is a prescription for disaster.
DeleteReading all of the angst and frustration is not leading to any seeds of wisdom here. It is very hard to swallow but I don't think that the Dodgers are setting any competition on fire in Dec 23. We all want the same thing: competition with an opportunity to win it all. It is far too easy to blame Zaidi, and IMHO Sabean would have been equally hamstrung in the same circumstances. The best path for today and the near future is to consider "how" to improve rather than rage at the machine the Dodgers have become. They seem perfectly capable of finding ways to drop out of the post season all by themselves. I can't waste my breath or energy fretting about L.A. I want a team in Oracle I can love and enjoy play a game I have loved for more than 70 years. Let's not grind each other to shreds.
DeleteDoc - I don't think they always have to overpay but right now in this point of time and where FZ has the team, I think they should have or need to do it once for a star..it would mean (or would have meant) a lot in many respects in my opinion
DeleteSteveVA
Bonds was worth overpaying for. Bryce Harper was worth overpaying for. Turns out Corey Seager and Marcus Semien were worth overpaying for, but who knew? At this point the Dodgers seem to be overpaying with impunity. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. I would have been happy with an overpay for Yamamoto but 12 years/$325 M would have made me gulp hard. That contract is unlikely to age well.
DeleteAs I was out driving around this afternoon meditating and realized the Dodgers will write their last check to Shohei Ohtani when I am almost 90 years old.
ReplyDeleteThis is the first I recall DrB. in all these years dropping an F bomb. But I'm afraid I share that sentiment on this day. Shohei basically signed a screw-the-Giants delayed-payment contract so that the Bums could also sign YY with current money.
ReplyDeleteBut there remain interesting options remaining and fortune may not favor the rash Bums.
Ha ha! I have quite a few friends who are Dodger fans. They have no understanding of the depth of hatred those of us Giants fans who grew up in the 1960's and then went through the Lasorda years have for the Dodgers.
DeleteHope Ohtani gets lots of boos next year when he comes to town.
ReplyDeleteLA has won 1 WS in 35 years. ONE!
ReplyDeleteThese 2 signings were made in absolute desperation.
They'll win 100 games again.
And most likely find a way come up losers in the end.
Again.
I agree there is some desperation going on in Dodgerland. Their fanbase was not happy after this last postseason.
DeleteWhen I look at Blake Snell's career, I see a pitcher with inconsistent seasons. Over eight seasons, he has five with seasons under 4.00 ERA and three with ERAs over 4.00. Also, looks like Snell walks too many batters ( a good BB/9 rate is 3.0). Snell has three seasons with BB/9 around 5.0. The Giants won't get Snell without overpaying and I would not do that. I would say go hard after Imanaga and Stroman. I am also a believer that Keaton Winn, Kyle Harrison and Tristan Beck could help fill out the rotation. Get some batters that will deliver. If Haniger and Conforto can't rebound, ship them out. The standard business concept is "a sunk cost is not a relevant cost." Right now the Giants offense looks ordinary.
ReplyDeleteI saw a X post, almost surely fake, that the Giants signed Snell for 9 years $300 M and I just said "nooo!!!!!" That is going to be a terrible contract. With Cobb's slated to miss the first month and his future after that uncertain I think the Giants need to sign at least one frontline SP plus a FZ reclamation project or two(Lucas Giolito anyone?). I agree with giving the kids a chance but I don't think you can depend on them for 4 of the 5 rotation slots.
DeleteI have been quite the curmudgeon in the comments these past few weeks, and I haven't been this upset about the state of Giants baseball in quite a long while. 5 years ago I had strong hopes that Farhan would build the infrastructure to bring the Giants to a tier 1A team by now. He hasn't.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I do fear that this new direction of ownership to "sign a star" is going to leave us with a few mediocre albatrosses, which I think Snell will be, hampering the org in a few years when the team might actually finally ready to compete with the team down south.
I think now is the time to do what Farhan does well and look for value. Next year play the kids, and build towards that super team. Because the big guys on the board are landmines not building blocks, and I generally fear when owners get involved in free agent signings.
- Fan
I do think there is a danger that ownership, in trying to appease the fanbase and put more butts in seats, is pushing FZ to return to the same game plan that got his predecessor fired. If we don't believe Snell and/or Bellinger are worthy of 9-digit mega contracts, and I think it's debatable, then FZ needs to pull back and go back to what he does best and find undervalued pieces.
DeleteDoc - That is indeed what he does best but, in the end, it doesn't lead to a real winning team but just mediocrity. There was that one good year but how much of that was becasaue of the absurd years of the two Brandons?? Guess what I'm saying is FZ needs keep doing his smaller talent-evalution smart moves but also has needed to go big time and win.!
DeleteSteveVA
Well, when I say finding undervalued pieces is what FZ does best, he really has not been that good at it, as I have said in the past. I think it is arguable that Sabes was much better at finding value in castoff players using a much more targeted approach. I am OK with spending big on a player who is a true franchise player. IMO, there were only two of those in this year's market: Ohtani and Yamamoto. Two problems: All the big spending teams thought so too. 2. They both obviously wanted to play for the Dodgers and used the process to up their price. Nothing wrong with that except IMO, the Dodgers should be charged the full $70 M AAV on the CBT tax.
DeleteGotta say, it bugs me reading these "Giants were aggressive on Yamamoto" and "Yamamoto was impressed by Giants" BS propaganda post mortem articles that I have seen...Didn't they just change name on the previous Ohtani articles? And will do the same for Snell?? Sorry, still a little ticked...Get SNELL!!!
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
This has been a post for venting, which I think all of us badly needed.
DeleteIn my opinion, FZ's biggest mistake was not signing Gausman. But overspending now on pitching seems untimely; agree go hard after Imanaga and Stroman and get some value. play the kids some and churn on....
ReplyDeleteI would greatly prefer Bieber to Stroman...agree with Imanaga, and perhaps revisit Manaea and hope that he will regain form with Melvin and counter some of that Blue weight from the left side of the plate? At this stage it would seem that trades will produce better value than FAs. The best (only) way to react to the offensive tilt to the Division is to focus on pitching and defense. Build the foundation...when the *superstar* that fits the club, and NOT in desperation, remember how badly we all feel now and act AGGRESSIVELY...and not passively to get your man.
ReplyDeleteI think a good model for building a successful team from within without chasing free agent 'stars' is Tampa Bay. They're doing something right - always challenging around the top of their division. Do they develop players better than SF? Trade for better prospects than SF can? Draft better? Perhaps the revamping and upgrading of the farm system is FZ's attempt to emulate TB's success --
ReplyDeleteVery interesting take. I am honestly not sure what Tampa Bay is doing differently than the Giants because they roll with role players, platoons and churning the roster as much as the Giants or even more. I will say their starting CF and one of their better SP's were guys who got washed out of FZ's sluicebox the seemed to find a home with the Rays. Are they maybe a bit more patient with their churning?
DeleteIf you read through MLB Pipelines Rays Top 30 Prospect list, you'll find several references to them frequently doing something FZ has not done nearly enough of: Resolving roster crunches by trading guys who are out of options or blocked in other ways for complex league prospects who still have a few years of development time before they run into Rule 5 and options deadlines.
DeleteThanks for that, Doc! I hope FZ reflects on that difference - could be a way forward.
Deletethink they stacked up last year, didn't work out but maybe its not a bad thing to do it it again, its not cheap street wise but a big market team like the giants can afford it and who knows they might get lucky
ReplyDeleteDespite what the Rays have achieved on the field, (including a 99-game winning season last year), it’s interesting that their Game 1 against the Rangers in the playoffs was the lowest attended post-season game since 1919. Consider this: The Rays ranked 27th in average attendance during the past season — higher than only the Royals, Marlins and A’s. (Their average of 17,781 was actually the organization’s highest for a non-COVID season since 2014.) Even so, Rays ownership announced funding for a new $1.2 billion stadium in Tampa Bay. Is it the area not being a good baseball city … or, could the fans be turned off by the constant roster churning and hyper-analytics — despite fairly impressive on-the-field success?
ReplyDeleteI'm not personally familiar with the Tampa/St Pet area but from what I've read, it's a bad stadium and tough to get to.
DeleteI don't favor committing big money & years to multiple starting pitchers this off-season. At this point, objective for '24 should be to improve record, ideally contend season-long, and see what's development of the many intriguing minor league pieces. Starting rotation for '25 could be Webb, ONE expensive FA SP added now, Harrison, and pick 2 out of Beck, Winn, Wisenhunt & Black, with Birdsong & McDonald knocking on the door (not to mention Teng, Roupp, Whitman) -- and bullpen situation also flush including some of those guys who don't make rotation + 4 more years team control of Doval, 5 of Walker, 6 of Miller, and both Rogerses & Jackson signed through '25, and Crawford coming up. There's promise for deep, young & economical pitching for rest of this decade and emphasize spending on non-pitchers (& maybe have extra pitching pieces for trades).
ReplyDelete