You had to know this was going to happen when the Blue Jays hoax fell apart yesterday. The Dodgers were always the frontrunners to sign Shohei Ohtani so that by itself is no surprise. The terms of the deal are.....well, they are staggering! 10 years/$700 M! I mean, really? There must be, has to be no limit. Now, while deets are not completely known, over half the $700 M is deferred which creates a loophole adjustment in the AAV for CBT purposes. Per Fangraphs, assuming $400 M deferred in $40 M yearly parcels by 10 years and spread over 4 years each(my my math Ohtani will be paid about $10 M/yr for 40 years after this contract ends), the Prevent Value of the deferred money is reduced by about $10 M per year which means the Dodgers still take a total $60 M hit on the CBT yearly for 10 years which is not a small amount.
There are lots of ways to rationalize why this could end up being a bad deal for the Dodgers. As of right now, Ohtani is limited to DH with a projected fWAR in 2024 of 3.7 which is not a return you hope for from a $70 M/yr player, or even from a $60 M/yr player. Yes, he may add pitching to is WAR value starting in 2025 but this is his second TJ surgery and there is a non-zero chance he will never be an effective MLB pitcher again. On the other hand, it appears there is no such thing as a financial drag on the Dodgers. They apparently have unlimited financial resources. On top of that I think you have to factor in the local aspect of this and it involves the territorial competition between the Dodgers and Angels with the Dodgers having just gained a huge upper hand in local brand value to the point of near total destruction of the Angels brand.
Much as I hate that Ohtani is now a Dodger, I am more than a little relieved the Giants are not on the paying end of this contract. I just wish he had gone to the BJ's or almost anywhere else besides the Dodgers. My own offseason dream scenario is still on the table: Yamamoto, Lee, Manaea, plus or minus Brandon Belt and Tim Anderson. Get er done, FZ!
Hear hear!
ReplyDelete(Plus Burns.)
Like your off-season dream scenario, its addresses starting pitching, Shortstop , center field - all needs they need to fill. Hope the Giants are finalists for Yamamoto? If yes, they'll have to put in a massive bid to compete with the 2 NY teams and others, so Giants ownership would need to step up. Show the fans they're willing to spend to close the deal. If the Giants gave Ohtani the same contract could they have built a winning team around him or would it have been like the early Barry Bonds years when he was the only star on losing teams? Feel bad for Angels and Blue Jays fans who thought they were gonna sign him.
ReplyDeleteMaybe Snell rather than Yamamoto as well as Manaea - two LHPs plus Harrison to throw at LAD Ohtani and Freeman?
DeleteMore than one pathway to a successful offseason but FZ needs to step it up and start getting signatures on the dotted line.
DeleteGiven the state of the Giants team and organization, and the fact both NY teams want Yamamoto, I just don’t see how we have a serious chance to sign him.
ReplyDeleteThe team needs to get better and make itself more attractive to high profile FAs, which means they’ll need to build some level of Star power from within first.
-TK
You know, I think I've said this already. While most fans and beat reporters seem to be using signing a superstar as a litmus test for FZ, if he wants to impress me, as he should(LOL!), I want to see him make a trade for or sign an under-the-radar player who turns into a superstar. That is on top of continued sustained improvement in the farm system. I know that's what he's been trying to do and it's incredibly hard but that's what would impress me. He kind of missed his big chance with Kevin Gausman who seemed to really want to stay in SF and never even got an offer. Gausman's contract with the BJ's looks like the bargain of the decade right now.
DeleteHe needs to sign an under the radar player and also draft a player or two
Deletethat turn into stars. He needs his own Soto, Acuna, or Freeman. That was supposed to the promise of FZ’s reign, and it hasn’t happened yet and it’s starting to seem like it never will.
Doc I agree that been waiting for FZ to make a creative trade to acquire an everyday player or two. That's an area that GMs would do to improve their team, but FZ not so much. He likes to make trades to improve the edges of roster. FZ hasn't given me the option to criticize or praise any trades he's made lately since they're minor trades, lol. If they are lucky enough to sign a Yamamoto, FZ will get the credit but bigger free agents like that are more ownership driven. When they didn't re sign Gausman I thought they were too risky adverse, but made up for it locking up Logan Webb
DeleteNot giving 5-year contracts to 30+ yo pitchers is probably consistent for FZ.
ReplyDeleteBefore Gausman's excellent SF 2021, he had not pitched a "full" season since 2018. He got a 5-year deal with a good Blue Jay team, has had 2 good years, and has gone to the playoffs both times, but bowed out in the WC twice in poor starts by Gausman.
Given Yamamoto's age, FZ might go 8 or 9 years, but a NY team will go 10+.
Will Zaidi?
Rodón's 6-year contract with NYY @ 30 yo has already gone south.
If it’s true the Dodgers and the NY teams are now prioritizing Yamamoto, I don’t see a realistic scenario where the Giants sign him.
DeleteEven 10 years, $400M might not be enough. Ohtani apparently did everything in his post to sign with the Dodgers because he wants to win. Giants can’t compete with that. At least not in their given state. FZ needs to think about some less high profile moves and focus on building a winner from within. I just don’t know if he’s up to the task.
-TK
The thing is, FZ did nothing wrong this year in not getting Ohtani and ditto when he doesn't get Yammamotto (although i hope he does)..Winners with money and willing to do anything trump..But that doesn't absolve him for putting the Giants in the no mans land position they are in where they have trouble competing.....I also wonder if FZ is the type to win over stars..He's well liked by the stat heads, the intelligista but not sure if his game really plays as the recruiter..
DeleteSteveVA
Things look very bleak right now, but are they really as bleak as they seem? Absolutely everything went right in 2021. Almost everything went wrong in 2023. Maybe things land somewhere in between in 2024 and by adding a couple of second tier guys and a couple more third or 4'th tiers, combine with modest improvements from Haniger and Conforto and maybe you have enough to get into the postseason?
DeleteNot sure about 3rd-5th tier :) but I kinda agree..Bolster the Pitching with as good as you can get...and make sure to make defense a priority in CF and utility IF/3B ..Maybe defense and pitching can get you into the watered down POs if a 3rd tier bat or a kid pan out..Then, who knows..a deadline deal for bats..and welll....
DeleteSteveVA
1/6: It is now becoming clear that the position where the Giants are most sorely in need of a star is... the front office. Everyone looks at the players. What about those who lead the organization, the GM/President of the team? These men are, more than anything, builders. They can be established pros like Alex Anthopoulos in ATL or Andrew Friedman in LAD. Or they can be up-and-comers like Chris Young in TEX. They all have three things in common: They are smart; they are effective; they boldly insist on being the leader.
ReplyDelete2/6: Chris Young? He develops cast-offs (Adolis García) and - hit or miss - he is both capable of and unafraid to pull the trigger to acquire star talent (Seager, deGrom, Scherzer, perhaps even Kershaw). And he values Leadership (see Bochy, Bruce).
ReplyDelete3/6: Alex Anthopoulos had years of success in TOR, until Mark Shapiro came in - Anthopoulos did not want to play second fiddle there, so he left to join LAD, where it was clear that Andrew Friedman was not going anywhere, so he then went to ATL, where is now 'the Man' - and probably one of the top 2 or 3 GM in baseball (a year from now, I believe everyone will be asking: how did he get Jared Kelenic away from SEA?)
ReplyDelete4/6: Andrew Friedman: Smart? Please. Effective? Betts: Check. Freeman: Check. Ohtani: Check. And he is a leader - two days ago, he said the following: "...But I think it’s important to either figure out how to make them [LAD top MiLB prospects] a part of what we’re doing up here or trade once they’ve gotten to that point of going through the minor leagues and having nothing left to prove.” That is what a leader shows – vision and execution.
ReplyDelete5/6: Farhan Zaidi? While he might say something like that, has he ever done that? Bart, Villar, Ramos should have been packaged for something, long ago. Now? They will get nothing for Bart or Villar. Ramos? They re-signed Slater and Yty, not to mention must find OF playing time for Conforto and Haniger. The fact is: Zaidi is likely what everyone in LAD thought he was – a gifted analyst, but not an architect, or even a leader. He encouraged Bochy to leave, so he could recruit his hand-picked field manager (Kapler), and then, after little progress in 4 years, stood silent while the Giants let Kapler go and hired his exact opposite – Bob Melvin - to replace him.
ReplyDelete6/6: In summary: The problem with the Giants is at the top: Farhan Zaidi. Perhaps he is smart. But he is surely not effective. And, as the Bochy-Kapler-Melvin in 4 years situation shows, he is clearly not a leader. With Zaidi as GM/President, the Giants will be a perennial .500 club. And what’s more, a boring one (the last half of 2023 showed that). What big star wants to play for (or stay with, if you developed him) a perennial .500 club? It has been 4 years. We have seen enough. The Giants need new leadership at the top.
ReplyDeleteA frenzy seems to be forming around Yamamoto. Perhaps better to strike with Burns and Snell. And Manea.
ReplyDeleteGotta agree here. Giants will obviously stay in on Yamamoto as much they can, at least driving the price up. (Though NY's teams will probably take care of that.) But really, start treating contingencies to Yamamoto as primary goals.
DeleteGiven that the 2024 Giants have only one successful d͟r͟a͟f͟t͟e͟d͟ SP (Webb) since Bumgarner (2007) and no d͟r͟a͟f͟t͟e͟d͟ All-Star position player on their 2024 roster (Crawford & Posey were the last SF drafted All-Stars, both from 2008 draft).
ReplyDeleteIt's unlikely that FZ's first draft (2019) will amount to much but there is hope that a draftee of 2020-2023 may become an All-Star or a 1-3 SP and end a long "Draft Draught"!
This is really the problem, right? An dreadfully long period of failure in the draft, interrupted by two successes (Wheeler and Reynolds) who were traded away for rentals.
DeleteThe Giants have little base to build around. It makes almost no sense to overpay for Yamamoto, who would take the team from 77 to 82 wins.
Until the Giants have a productive farm, signing a couple of stars is going to have very limited value at an extraordinary cost
You have to start somewhere. If you wait until you have your core in place and the perfect moment to strike in FA, you may never get there. If they sign Yamamoto, it will be for at least 5 years. Then you keep adding pieces and hopefully developing prospects to have a team that can seriously compete in 2-3 years. Remember the bar to get into the postseason is pretty low and once you are in, anything can happen.
DeleteI agree you gotta start somewhere. Perhaps we have to overpay to get a star today but that could look like a bargain tomorrow. A couple good signings and internal development can make all the difference
DeleteThis right here. FZ was brought in to emulate the Dodgers’ blueprint of having a strong farm that can develop a strong core and also be used as trade chips. That hasn’t really materialized yet, and most of our up and coming core (Luciano, Webb, Matos) pre-date FZ’s tenure.
DeleteIf he can’t improve the farm system by the time his contract is up, why keep him around?
-TK
The farm system was noticeably better and deeper last season with the 2023 draft and 2023 international signings looking particularly good. With his extension in hand, FZ has 3 more seasons to sustain it and get players like Eldridge and Arias to the upper minors with more coming behind.
DeleteOhtani was never a possibility in my eyes and can't see why Yammamotto, who I like but is also pie in the sky, would ever pick the Giants over the Dodgers, Mets. Yankees, etc.... Do you wait on him also while other players maybe go off the boards??? Very risky...I think the only thing to do now is overpay for 2 arms in FA (Snell?? Montgomery?? Stroman?? Maneaa??)) and ditto for a CF (LEE, I hope, or Bellinger but likely BADER..or do they roll the dice FITZ??) and maybe work out a trade using TOP assets for a hitter...Plain and simple, teams like the Dodgers, Yanks, Braves, etc always find reasons why to pay or give up the most to get things done,...Like they were gonna do for JUDGE and even CORREA before the medical stuff, Giants will have to bite the bullet at least once...But they better be right!!! :) ..Oh yeah, a reserve/mentor/1 year starter at SS might be nice too
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
Like the idea of the Giants stacking their starting rotation overpaying for 2 quality arms. If they don't sign Yamamoto, what about signing Snell and Stroman to go with Webb. If the Dodgers are gonna stack their lineup, the Giants should compete with a stacked pitching staff . History shows the Giants have better success luring free agent pitchers to play for them then hitters
Delete"But they better be right!!!" This is why taking a $250 million flyer on Bellinger or, significant money on ANY pitcher, is such a huge risk for the Giants.
DeleteOnce you leave the TRUE superstar tier....FA is a crapshoot. We're all aware of Correa's stats this past season. Don't even bother checking in on past targets like Giancarlo...
Hey..Being right is why FZ gets paid the big bucks and it is time to deliver a little!!..and yeah, I think the only way to go is with a focus on Pitching and more pitching and better defense....Bolster the Pitching with as good as you can get...defense in CF ..Get ONE bat somehow.....Maybe defense and pitching can get you into the POs if other things break right
DeleteSteveVA
I'm in on lights-out pitching and defense, set some record for winning the most 1-0 games in MLB history. Since bats are so hard to lure out to SF, could Bob Melvin lure out the best hitting coaches and try to maximize what we've got?
DeleteDoc’s plan is very plausible. If this team can find a few more key contributors and get some real seasoning for their younger guys, this might be a fun team to watch develop. (I’m still wondering why Tyler Fitzgerald can’t be a starting CFer and/or backup SS?)
ReplyDeleteFitzgerald has abnormally low exit velocities which is probably why they are not high on him.
Deletebut he can run like a rabbit
DeleteFZ did roll the dice last year with preliminary poor results but the final grade is not in.
ReplyDelete2022-3 FAs: Conforto, Haniger, Stripling, Manaea, and Rogers – none had a good start but Manaea and Rogers came around.
Conforto was always a long shot after his layoff, Haniger couldn't stay on the field, Stripling was a bust, BUT all three could rebound, and Manaea could re-sign if Melvin promises him a spot IN the rotation, and why not?
The plan last year, after whiffing on Judge and Correa, was good on paper but the players didn't perform. Had they just had average years and NOT quit in September/October (8-19), the Giants "coulda" been a Playoff team.
With the good drafts and International Signings since 2019, the Future is not bleak. Pick up a couple good FAs who can contribute and the Giants will be in the playoffs in 2024, not 1st in the West, but, with the format, the Giants can be in and have a chance.
So, being reported that the Giants met with Yammamotto on Sunday...Being a one-way player, Offer him half of what Ohtani took!!!!!...$350m over 10 years with deferrals .But, seriously, not sure if that will get it done with the NY teams involved....If it does..sign 1 more 2nd tier pitcher (???)..maybe LEE for CF..and trade young assets (hopefully not Harrison, but likely) for a youngish bat (say, Randy Arozarena)...Giants need to make a splash for the organizational mental well being and how they are viewed amongst potential aquisitions....It is past time....Oh , will Joey Bart bring back anything??
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
I think one of the worst aspects of Baseball is the lack of competitive balance. The luxury tax is not working. Ohtani signed for more than 2 full teams had as their payroll in 2023. I think baseball needs to consider a salary cap like the NFL. It makes it unwatchable if five or six teams are grabbing all the good free-agents.
ReplyDeleteI agree. Unlike the NFL and the NBA, the baseball draft doesn't yield that relatively quick reversal of fortune, so a reasonable cap would allow every team a chance to bid on the super-talented free agents.
DeleteThe Players Association will never agree. Period.
Delete