The starting pitcher market was expected to liquify after Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP signed but instead quickly recongealed around Blake Snell LHP and Shoto Imanaga LHP. Maybe the sheer size of YY's contract made the second tier guys re-evaluate their value and demand more? Maybe GM's and POBO's are re-evaluating whether they want to shop at the top of the market at all?
Jordan Montgomery LHP is probably the other second tier SP available but is market seems to lower key than Snell and Imanaga. In addition potential trade candidates Corbin Burnes RHP and Dylan Cease RHP would qualify as at least second tier and maybe even top tier but their degree of availability remains unclear.
The Giants priorities remain a top-end SP and possibly an additional lower tier SP like Sean Manaea LHP or bounceback candidate like Lucas Giolito RHP.
Meanwhile the utility/backup market remains brisk with the Blue Jays re-signing Kevin Kiermeier OF and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa IF. Neither player hits much. Kiermeier was once an elite OF defender but that skill may be slipping if you believe in Fangraphs UZR. IKF's main defensive value comes from his versatility, a profile the Giants don't exactly have a need for.
The Mariners replaced Tom Murphy C, who signed with the Giants, with a similar profile Mitch Garver C. Garver may be a slightly better hitter than Murphy and has stayed healthier but the Mariners also paid him about 3 times as much as the Giants paid Murph.
The Giants are rumored to be close to signing Matt Chapman 3B but those rumors are not new and after awhile you wonder how close they really are. While Chapman would be an upgrade at 3B, it's also true that 3B is not the Giants biggest Hot Stove need.
And so we wait........
An off season this slow is not good for MLB. It somewhat kills the fans excitement to wait weeks for their team to make moves . Maybe Scott Boros is holding up the market. He's been known to have his clients wait out the market until his clients get good offers. Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger, Chapman and others are Boros clients. Heard Jim Bowdon say the Giants want Snell and Chapman which is interesting. FZ likes strike throwing pitchers, which Snell struggles with at times. But he has great stuff and maybe Bob Melvin wants him. Melvin may want Chapman also.Hes been more of an everyday player throughout his career then Davis . 3rd base is not really a big need, but a good thing would be that maybe it would force FZ to trade a player to improve a need area. I would love to see the Giants sign Imanaga. He's a good lefty pitcher and they would be getting their foot in the door signing future Japan players. It would be cool if Japanese media can cover both the Dodgers and Giants having a Japanese player on their roster.
ReplyDeleteI suspect Snell's walk rate is being negatively overrated. Not all walks are created equal and there is something to the "effectively wild" notion. Leadoff walks are almost always bad but if you have runners on base and open bases, it can be strategically sound to pitch around a batter or two in order to face a weaker hitter. IDK if that is what Snell is doing but dude did just win a Cy Young while issuing 5 BB/9. 5 might still be too high but I suspect if a pitcher's walk rate is too low, that is not good either and he's probably serving up to many fat pitches to try to avoid walks.
DeleteI agree with your analysis here, completely! The worst pitching, delivers all pitches in or nearly in the strike zone, at similar speeds. The worst deliveries, let the batter see where the pitch is coming from, too soon. Effectively wild pitching, is what I would hope we get. Great thoughts on the 5 walks per 9, Doc.
DeleteSide note: I was a very similar pitcher, statistically, at the high school level (if you add in a few hit batters per 7 innings, every game)! 😂
I am reminded of the real-estate market. In frenzies sellers raise prices as rapidly as buyers will follow. When the market cools sellers tend to stick with their high prices rather than following buyers back down to the new reality. Here Snell and others saw the billion dollars the Dodgers just committed and have stars in their eyes. And MLBTR reports that Boras will take free agents well into spring training to maximize the contracts. So I suspect a Manaea or Giolito signing sounds like the most we'll see for a while.
ReplyDeleteIf somebody as flawed as Giolito is getting 2 years at 19 m per year.(Red Sox???).do the Giants do the same crazy shuffle for Stroman and Manea or do they pony up 25-30 mil for Snell and/or Imanga....or some combo of the two (Snell/Stroman??)Crazy money either way but FZ should have seen that coming and maybe acted proactively instead of his usual close but no cigar strategy...Hell just tank and go with Winn, Harrison, Teng and Whisenhunt and you won't have to worry about FAs saying NO.
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
That is a crazy amount of money for Giolito. He makes some sense on 1 year/prove it contract but no thank you for that deal. I just don't want to see the Giants get "lumbered", as Paul McCartney would say, with long term contracts non-elite players. If the market does not come back to some semblance of prudence, I'm starting to think just go with the kids.
DeleteThe thing is, will the market ever come back and/or correct itself or just be worse the next year and the year after? If so..you should have done it or do it now (Snell) or accept losing with the kids and HOPE they turn into Lincecum and Bumgarner (we already have Cain!)..We'll see..
DeleteSteveVA
Yes, that is the choice. But if they do turn into Lincecum and Bum, history shows it can turn around a lot quicker than anticpated.
DeleteDoc both you and SteveVa make a lot of sense.
ReplyDeleteI am for going with what we have with our young kid pitchers and the Luciano,Casey,Davis Etc.
See if we can get early traction and see what trade op may arise in the season.
You know my views about Farhan!
Whatever happens either put up or shut up Farhan,
Do your damn job!!!!
Richard in Winnipeg
I was just about to come back with a repeat of something I've said a few days ago. I'm still waiting for FZ to really impress me with a trade.
DeleteThe Ruf trade impressed me. But it did not really impress me. Not a big trade. After that, there’s really nothing there.
DeleteThis seems kind of surprising, because Farhan studied under trader Billy Bean.
I do have to say the Ruf trade was a real steal for FZ and some of the Churn trades have come up positive, but I'm still looking for that franchise-altering move that folks will talk about years from now.
DeleteDoc , FZ has made some good under the radar trades for players like Yaz, JD Davis, Estrada. But I'm still waiting for that creative trade to acquire a top player from another teams MLB roster that I can praise or criticize. It's time to take a risk! Curious to see what the 2024 26 man roster payroll will be The 2023 payroll according to cots was $188k. The 2024 payroll is currently at $153k. While spending doesn't guarantee success I wonder how much more spending ownership will allow. I wish Greg Johnston didn't make that comment about breaking even in public.
ReplyDeleteI've been pondering whether FZ could swing a real blockbuster with the BrewCrew taking on Christian Yelich and his remaining contract(which BTW, isn't all that bad), to get Burnes and Adames while giving up minimal prospect talent. The if you can't extend Burnes and Adames, offer them the QO and either get them for another season or 2 extra draft picks. To me, it's trades like that which can not only help win now but build talent for the future.
DeleteFarhan Farhan Farhan
ReplyDeleteOf course he gets the blame, he's in charge and it doesn't matter what he inherited in 2019: A very lousy team and a sparse farm.
Then, the undisputed team leader ops out of his contract in both 2020 and 2022, 2 years that SF could have been in the playoffs with Buster playing, plus while contending in 2023 going into the final month, just about the entire team quit for which the manager got the axe.
The Giants aren't as bad as they have performed in 3 of the last 4 years and they had the "best" team in baseball in the one good year with the 3-core holdovers performing at high levels for the last time.
The added parts in 2023 looked good going into the season, and the Giants were in 2nd place, just 1.5 games back, 1st WC, after an 7-game winning streak in mid-July.
From Doc's blog July 19, 2023:
After the smoke cleared, the Giants lead the Wild Card playoff race by 1.5 games over the Phillies and 1 game over the D'Backs. They trail the NL West leading Dodgers by 1.5 games.
Comment by Anonymous July 19, 2023 at 6:46 AM:
Giants: 3rd best record in NL, 6th best in MLB.
Perhaps Melvin can do something Kapler couldn't: keep 'em going.
They have pitching and may improve it.
The FA's from last year need to perform.
As I have said many time, everything went right in 2021 and almost everything went wrong last year. Maybe the true talent is somewhere in between and can be added onto?
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