Conventional Wisdom says second tier free agents have to wait their turn in the queue until the top tier guys sign and "set the market." We seem to be seeing a new trend that started last year of teams that for one reason or another are not in the market for a top tier dude to jump the market and grab second tier guys at a price that is possibly higher than the player would get if they tried to wait out the market, so the players are signing some life-changing contracts with only a small probability they left money at the table.
Aaron Nola RHP was the first to sign early, re-upping with the only team he has played for with a whopping, eye-opening 7 yr/$170 M deal with the Phillies. Today, we saw Sonny Gray RHP and Kenta Maeda RHP follow suit with teams they can help.
Aaron Nola beat MLBTR's prediction by 1 year/$25 M.
Sonny Gray's total was $15 M less than MLBTR prediction but beat the AAV by $2.5 M.
Kenta Maeda was predicted to get 2 yr/$36 M and settled for 2 yr/$24 M which is considerably less so he may have sold himself a bit short, but may have had other reasons to secure an early deal.
The Cardinals entered the postseason in desperate need of both quality and depth in their rotation and were rumored to be willing to trade from a surplus of hitting to get pitching. Instead they added a frontline SP in Gray and a couple of innings eaters in Lynn and Gibson without giving up any of their hitting stockpile. They can still trade hitting for pitching but can now afford to wait for a favorable deal as opposed to a desperation trade, although the AAV may be a bit of an overpay.
The Tigers may have a steal of a deal on their hands as Maeda, coming off a missed season due to the "internal brace" version of Tommy John Surgery, compiled a modest 4.23 ERA in 104.1 IP, but that came with a stellar 10.09/2.42 K/BB which portends to possibly better things to come, although at 35 yo he is getting up there in years for a pitcher.
So what, if anything, does all this have to do with the Giants? Maybe nothing but some fans think that last Hot Stove League season, FZ let the second tier market get away from him while he was chasing the top tier and when the top tier didn't work out he was left scrambling to sign damaged players for above-market prices and terms(like opt outs). Are we starting to see the outline of that same dynamic here?
Do the Giants think they have a realistic shot at the Top Tier of Othani, Yamamoto, and Bellinger?
ReplyDelete(Some Stick Snell ahead of Bellinger.)
Kudos to Nola for staying home, although that contract was a mutual sweetheart deal. The Phillies HAD to make that happen and Nola was ready to oblige.
The Giants seem to think they have a realistic shot at one or more of those players. I know there is a clamor from fans and sports commentators for them to get into the $mega-millions market. I am not so sure. I would like to see them sign Yamamoto but the rest have serious red flags that scream "stay away" to me.
DeleteI am a huge fan of Shōta Imanaga. I hope the Giants don't forget about him.
DeleteThe Athletic (subscription required but they have some good deals) has an interesting article on regrettable contracts.
ReplyDeleteGood news is the Giants aren't on the Mega-Multi-Million List (thank you FZ? Or Ownership?), but some of the players SF sought are (Stanton, Correa, Rodón & Bryant & maybe Others if the Giants tried for them).
Of course, the Giants have had some lead-weight corkers, and a couple current contracts don't look good but they are not in the $100,000,000 class and could look better this year (fingers crossed).
Historically $mega-millions contracts are way more likely to turn out bad for the team than good. For every Kevin Gausman there are at least 4 of the Stanton, Correa, Rodon and Bryant ilk. Even Aaron Judge's contract is not looking so great right now.
DeleteEven if the player performs up to the contract it's no guarantee the team is going to win a WS because of it. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are doing everything expected of them for the Dodgers and all they have to show for it is a win in a short season(2020) and Freeman wasn't there then. Manny Machado has performed will for SD but it's not been enough for them either. In fact, all 3 of SD's megastars, Machado, Bogaerts and Tatis Jr performed well last year and look where it got them.
DeleteSan Diego was a good team but something was wrong.
DeleteThe manager?
But see: the 2023 WS champion Texas Rangers, with mega-contracts to Seager and Semien. See also Phillies and Bryce Harper, who is probably worth the contract and whom the Giants might have signed.
DeleteThat said, I share the fear of big contracts generally. I would have supported the Judge deal (and doubt he would have broken his toe as a Giant) but didn't like the Correa deal even before his physical. This year the only one for which I'm cautiously enthused is Yamamoto, who will probably cost well over $250M (including the posting fee, which itself will be in the neighborhood of $35M). Wouldn't throw a ton at anyone else.
Each year it seems like the FA class especially bats gets more expensive and less attractive! I can’t support giving Bellinger or Chapman 150 to 180 million. I know spending big money on pitching can be risky too but none of the bats other than Ohtani are going to make a big enough impact to justify the spend. Also have to overpay bats to play here but pitchers love it so wouldn’t it make the most sense to spend big on a few arms and then try trading for the bats we need? It’s also a proven strategy in this ballpark that a solid rotation can take this team all the way. I think FZ can pull off signing 2 of the top 5 arms available but I dont have a ton of confidence he can pull off a trade involving prospects for a significant bat or two but that should be his focus.
ReplyDeleteMike krukow said on KNBR that he expects the Giants to have at least 3 transactions within the next 10 days ,, Interesting.
ReplyDeleteIt's the 8th day and counting...
ReplyDeleteIs "O" signing tomorrow?