What would a perfect Hot Stove League campaign for the Giants look like? I have some thoughts as well as an analysis for whether that is financially feasable for them. The big unknown in all of this is how much payroll are they willing to take on both long term and this season. The Giants have minimal committed longterm payroll obligations so I don't think that is much of a factor although that will grow substantially if they take on several longterm deals this winter and they have to leave room to lock up young stars like Kyle Harrison and Marco Luciano if they find the kind of success we all hope for from them. I assume the Giants are not willing to go significantly above the CBT threshold this year which will then become the rate-limiting step in how close they can get to my dream scenario.
Using Cot's Contract website numbers, the 2024 CBT threshold is $237 M while the Giants have $168, 226, 667 currently committed including benefits and 40-man roster obligations leaving $68, 773, 333 to spend(CBT salaries are the average AAV for the duration of the contract, not what actually gets paid in 2024).
With that said, I present my dream Hot Stove League championship run(contracts are MLBTR predictions which are usually the most accurate of the predictions out there):
1. Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP: 9 yr/$225 M. AAV $25 M. It's a close call whether the Giants need an ace pitcher or a cleanup hitter more, but the only true cleanup hitter on the market, Shohei Ohtani is widey projected to cost more that twice as much in both total compensation and AAV which I find very scary and not worth it when they can fill an almost equal need in Yamamoto. Just to be clear, they almost certainly cannot afford to sign both Ohtani and Yamamoto.
2. Sign Jung-Hoo Lee CF: 5 yr/$50 M. AAV $10 M. There is also a posting fee but that does not count against the CBT threshold. Lee is not a middle-of-the-order hitter but he fills a widely identified need as a true CF. He has elite bat-to-ball and on-base skills and occasional HR power. He would be a close to ideal leadoff hitter moving the 1B platoon of Lamonte Wade Jr and Wilmer Flores down the order.
3. Sign Sean Manaea LHP: 2 yr/$22 M. AAV $11 M. Hey! While MLBTR's prediction for Manaea is for more than the $12 5 M he walked away from the AAV is $1.5 M less! Manaea gets to continue working with some of the coaches who helped him gain velocity on his FB and a manager he's worked with before and won't jerk him around like Kap did. With the crazy price of pitching this is a bargain for the Giants.
4. Sign Brandon Belt DH/1B: 1 yr/$15 M. AAV $15 M. Giants need a lefty bat to replace and upgrade Joc Pederson. Belt is not Ohtani but he's a lefty bat who can DH and is an upgrade over Joc.
5. Sign Tim Anderson SS: 1 yr/$12 M. AAV $12 M. This one was suggested by a reader/commenter a few posts back and it's grown on me. Anderson is a plus defender at SS. His offensive production inexplicably dropped off the table last year. Before that, he provided excellent power/speed numbers. This contract is low risk with a high reward. A little more salt for Marco Luciano in Sacramento won't hurt anyone and he can still be the fallback plan.
This fills all the Giants needs except a true cleanup hitter. It hangs onto their young pitching and they can still trade for a big bat if they can find a cost-controlled one available.
Here's the problem: This all adds up to an addition of $73 M to the 2024 CBT payroll which puts the Giants about $ 4 M over the limit before considering additional trades either preseason or at the trade deadline. Options:
Find trade partners for Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater which trims about $11 M.
Tim Anderson is a luxury sign. Not signing him and just going with Luciano at SS with Schmitt and Fitz as backups trims off another $12 M.
Belt would be nice but they could go for a poor man's Belt and sign Dan Vogelbach for a fraction of $15 M. If they do all 3 of these adjustments that frees up $38 M to fund a trade for a true cleanup hitter like a Juan Soto or Pete Alonso. (I guess they would not need Belt or Vogelbach if they traded for Soto. Only problem is I doubt SD trades Soto within the division).
TBH, I am a little dismayed at how little $73 M buys you on the open market. Guess FZ will have to keep The Churn going after all as well as fast-tracking young players already in the organization.
ReplyDeleteGreat plan - top three wishes excellent! If they signed Lee for CF, they could keep YtY to be LH DH. Might provide more defensive versatility and save the $$. I also favor Luciano/Schmitt at SS and keep tightening up that bullpen!
ReplyDeleteAgree
Delete....or move YtY to RF and Conforto to DH.
DeleteIf wishes were horses then Conforto and Haniger would hit (big) flies and solve the Giants power problem.
ReplyDeleteAlso would indicate FZ somewhat...
Like it or not, almost any scenario for the Giants to win next year, including signing several high-priced free agents is for Haniger and Conforto to produce close to their career averages when healthy.
DeleteRe Tim Anderson: DeJong had a better 2023, has better D for his career (per BR), hits many more HR's, and would have been far cheaper.
ReplyDeleteFangraphs projections favor Anderson somewhat.
Since SF didn't want DeJong, should they want Anderson?
DeJong has had over two full years of futility whereas Anderson only one. Much more realistic upside to Anderson.
Deleteagree 1000%
ReplyDeleteThank you.
DeleteSpeaking of horses (see above), it would not be a surprise if SF does something either side of stupid just to "spur" ticket sales immediately and bring in a real Quarter Horse to draw a Quarter-million extra fans!
ReplyDeleteThere may not be enough money to buy The Given One, he's reportedly more interested in a big post season than a big pay check, but a promising Run for the Roses might attract even Him.
The churn has gone from a strategy to almost a necessity quite honestly. FZ will most definitely need to make more big moves this offseason than maybe the other 5 combined when you consider he hasn’t really pulled off trades like the ones you suggested or signings of this magnitude. I say you are right about Yamamoto but maybe Shoto is a decent fallback if we can’t get him. Hoskins is the other option for middle of the order bat and of course fits the profile of what we are used to seeing so far from FZ. How much for Shoto, Anderson, Hoskins, and Lee? Let FZ churn his little heart out to figure out the rest!
ReplyDeleteI am astonished to see that Farhan has some how already committed $168M to the current dumpster dive roster. That in itself should have gotten him fired!
ReplyDeleteThis is true. He has basically sold ownership on overspending for mediocre players on short deals. Problem is that when you do it every year it is worse than signing long term deals if you don’t win. I have been skeptical of FZ and his plan from year one but am willing to give him this offseason to figure it out. All of us have come up with scenarios where this team could be drastically improved with 3-4 moves and if FZ isn’t able to pull those off win or lose he needs to go. I’m not asking to win next year I’m just asking to make enough moves so that we are better positioned to win in 2025.
DeleteHa Ha! Re. First comment, I burst out laughing when I read it. But in all seriousness, I believe FZ deserves just as much blame as Kap for the 2023 debacle, maybe more as much of the on-field chaos was caused by poor performances by players FZ acquired. Probably contributed to the clubhouse chaos too.
DeleteAnd yes, while I understand there is much going on behind the scenes we know nothing about, there are multiple achievable pathways to fielding a competitive team next year and if FZ can't find one himself, he should be let go.
DeleteIf Kap and FZ were let go last season at the same time , i would have been ok with it, but disappointed since the organization would have been put in turmoil and they would have no shot at the top free agents this off season. The red flags for me on FZ was when Brian Sabean was let go, and making no moves at the trade deadline when they were the wild card leaders. Now since FZ was extended 2 years to match Bob Melvin's 3 years they should be given at least 2 seasons to work together and see if they can turn it around. Kuiper said that if FZ wasn't extended Melvin would not have signed for 3 years. Melvin's long track record of success
ReplyDeleteSorry to finish earlier post Melvin has a long record of success as a manager and worked with FZ with the A's. If it's true that Melvin wouldn't have signed a 3 year contract unless FZ was extended also, doesn't that make them a package deal?
ReplyDeleteI am OK with Melvin as manager. He does have a nice track record of success and seems to be the type of manager the players will have more trust in. On the other hand, I am still scratching my head over what happened in SD last season and I don't think he is the only guy who could come in and be an upgrade over Kap, especially in the clubhouse.
DeleteAnd dare I way I have just a bit of unease over Melvin getting his old boy network together for his coaching staff, but maybe that's what the team needs after Kap's extremely unconventional approach?
DeleteKapler had some really good an innovative ideas. Unfortunately he tried to run the team like the Ray's without the institutional buy in. Rays don't sign many free agents, and the players who come up through the system get it. The few free agents who do sign with them know what they are getting into.
DeleteFarhan likes to sign bounce back guys & mercenaries -- not necessarily the crowd that wants to be playing for the team.
- Fan
Who knows what went on but Tim Kawakami had an interesting podcast with Dave Fleming, who said the collapse the last month was so bad, it felt like the players checked out, although he said the players worked hard. Suggest any Giants fan would find the podcast interesting since a lot of interesting topics were brought up.
DeleteThanks for the tip, LG. I will try to find it. Yes, the last month of the Giants season was as bad as any I can remember for any team. Just a complete collapse of player performance, managerial decision making and clubhouse culture.
DeleteLike the player, but a 9 year contract for an unknown starting pitcher?
ReplyDeleteContext: 1. Japanese pitchers have a strong track record of success after coming over to MLB. 2. By both scouting reports and stats, YY appears to be a true ace. 3. It is extremely rare for a free agent to be less than 28 yo and most are at least 30. YY is 25. 25! All big longterm contracts are risky but YY appears to be lower risk than most with a high probability of surplus value.
DeleteDOC…I like your strategy,,..may disagree on some particulars but not the philosophy/strategy….This off-season really scares the beejeezus out of me…I think it’s more likely that the Giants once again get the Shaft instead of the Gold Mine and then, as last year, do the UFA version of the dumpster dive churn…By all accounts, the Giants are committed to trying to land OHTANI and/or Yamamoto.. I just don’t see OHTANI coming to the losing Giants when recent winners with the same resources want him.. And then the next big fish is Yamamoto, who I prefer (to pair with Webb and Harrison!!)..but by all accounts that is gonna be a long drawn out affair lasting into January..If they get him, GREAT but ifffff the Giants are left at the altar..again.. …there will only be scraps left. My feeling is to scrap the idea of both pie in the sky Japanese players and do the best you can with what is available…and do it fast…Unless, this is all about balls to the wall for a STAR but I don’t think all the money in the world will probably bring that in,. I just think the way KAPLER and FZ mismanaged this team into a dull, unexciting, robotic doormat has really put the Giants behind the 8-ball for Stars. The only other possibility for a star is to overpay in assets for STARS with issues like SOTO (SD, pending UFA, but pay him the moon!) or Trout (worn down and money). I think the Giants will be left to trusting FZs eye and acumen for the non mega star UFA and TRADE talent that is available.. But not the bargain basement bin…do it quick, fast and hard with the second tier….I don’t see it, but what I would do…Maybe if a few of the kids (i.e, Harrison, Luciano, Matos on Steroids) blossom, and they move away from the analytic driven platoons, the team will then become more of an attraction in a year or two..
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
Whatever happened with Melvin and the SD star lineup, he's well-proven as a manager for teams with primarily emerging talent. It'd be fun to roll the dice with Harrison, Luciano and Matos and add a couple of lights-out SPs. Major free agent bats won't come to SF unless their father and godfather raised them in the Candlestick dugout, and trade bats have got to bring winning personalities (Burrell, Pence, Scutaro). If Matos comes to spring training with power at CF and we've got an elite rotation on board, things could get good in 2024.
ReplyDeleteI'd be happy with your offseason strategy. Unfortunately, I don't have any confidence that the Giants are serioulsy pursuing Ohtani or Yamamoto, or if they are, that they have a realistic shot at signing either of them. They could even be in a situation where they are the high bidder, but not wanted. I just get the feeling the Giants will have another repeat of last offseason where FZ has to go to plan B or C to get something done.
ReplyDeleteA lot of the future hinges on the performance of rookies (Luciano, Matos, etc.). I wish the farm was in better shape than it is, and I expected more from FZ in that regard. He's shown he's not his mentors Billy and Andrew, that's for sure.
-TK
By all accounts the Giants are aggressively pursuing Ohtani and/or Yamamoto, but so are about 25 other teams. We'll see. The problem is the top tier of FA's is very thin this year. I actually think the farm is pretty dramatically improved with the last draft and the last international signing period, but most of those prospects are down in the low minors and will take time to develop.
DeleteThe failure in drafting is not (yet) the 5 years 2019-2023, it's the 9 years 2010-2018 which produced Webb and a few fair to OK players.
Delete2021 was destined to be the last hurrah as the last of the great pre-2010 drafts, Posey, Belt, and Crawford, quit playing (retired or ineffective).
Zaidi had very little to work with which was why he was brought in, the post 2021 teams were pieced together by trades and FA signings and were been better than their records, both could have been playoff teams but failed for lack of depth, and maybe managing.
Zaidi's team is a mixed bag for their first 4 years of drafting and didn't seem to find much in the international market. Last year's draft and international signings look quite promising. Things to watch in 2024: 1. How do Bryce Eldridge and Walker Martin perform in their first full seasons? 2. How do Rayner Arias and several other "Dominican Dandies" perform after moving up to the ACL or even the Cal League? 3. Can the Giants back up last years international haul with at least one high profile signing in January? 4. Snap judgments on the 2024 Draft in June.
DeleteFarhan needs to take a long look in the mirror each time he picks up a player form the scrap heap (see Scooter Gennett, Lewis Brinson, Kevin Padlo, Matt Beatty, Ford Proctor, Michael Reed, Donovan Walton, Isan Diaz, Will Wilson, Zack Cosart, Mike Tauchman). These are only a few of the names I can recall and damage the churn does to the franchise IMHO far out weighs the few success stories (although I love Thairo). Not sure you can call Yaz a success anymore (Late bloomers often turn into early faders). All the playing time given to these churn and burn players takes away development and consistency from the players we have.
ReplyDeleteAny successful roster needs players from the scrapheap. The Giants 3 championship teams had many such players. It's not like Sabes et al couldn't find undervalued players. They were actually quite good at it and they didn't burn roster space by churning through 10 failures for every success. They were more selective, stuck with their choices and had a lot of success with them.
DeleteDoc-Agreed. As far as your "Dream Plan" for the off-season, I like your list #s 1-4. I am on the fence with bringing Brandon Belt back (maybe he would stay healthy as a DH), but would not want to see Tim Anderson in a Giant uniform. My impression is that he would not be good for the clubhouse. I don't know if you saw the fight last year with the Guardian's Jose Alvarez, but he did not look good as a player on that one or a fist fighter. Tim Anderson, according to some sources has called baseball boring, has shown a lack of hustle and has shown a lack of respect to the game.
DeleteOK, I just watched a video of the Anderson-Ramirez fight narrated by the guy on Jomboy Media. 1. Yes, it was a silly fight but Ramirez clearly instigated, or at least escalated, it after a very borderline provocation by Anderson(standing over him a little too long after the tag). 2. Both players issued what appear to be sincere apologies after although possibly not to each other. Anderson has been upfront about some of his emotional struggles and to his credit has sought therapy to help him work through them. I did a quick Google search of Tim Anderson Attitude and came across a GQ article from June 26, 2023 I think is worth reading. Anderson was slowed by nagging injuries over the past two seasons which places him in a perfect position to be one of FZ's reclamation projects. If FZ has an extra $12 M in the piggy bank I'm down with giving Anderson that shot.
DeleteTony LaRussa came to the White Sox with some pretty serious cultural baggage of his own and ended up being one of Anderson's biggest defenders and vice-versa. His manager from last season, Pedro Grifol had positive things to say about him too.
DeleteMost of the guys you listed didn't take ABs away from anyone really.
DeleteI think you're forgetting about a lot of dudes who gave a solid starter 2 WAR seasons.
Alex Dickerson
Donovan Solano
Darin Ruf
LaMonte Wade Jr.
Of course you acknowledge the guys you like, Thairo and Yaz, who's been a solid player for several years.
You also leave out guys like Jose Siri and Connor Joe who are everyday players. Even Mike Tauchman put up almost a 2 WAR season this past year.
I think you're severely underestimating the value Farhan's has been able to extract from almost thin air. And this is not even taking into consideration the pitching side.
Tim Anderson has hit rock bottom in his career and thus would be a huge feather in FZ’s reclamation project cap if he worked out. He undoubtedly has the talent to rebound and this could be a good situation for him making it a good fit both ways. Unfortunately as a Giants fan we need to lower expectations and be satisfied with moves like this.
DeleteI disagree that Farhan has extracted value out of thin air. Yes, The Churn has produced some very nice value players but again, if you go back to the Giants championship seasons there were a whole bunch of value players on all 3 of them without all the churning. That is not by itself an indictment of The Churn. There are more ways than one to achieve the same result but I don't see that The Churn has performed noticeably better than Sabes et al's old school approach
DeleteI also disagree Giants fans need to be satisfied with "buy low" signings like Anderson. He was just one piece of a 5-part offseason plan I laid out. If he and Belt, or players like them are the only haul from this Hot Stove League, it will be a failure and more than enough justification to fire Farhan, but I will be genuinely surprised if the Giants don't come away with at least 2 first or second tier free agent signings, 1 or 2 reclamation projects and possibly a trade for a frontline player.
DeleteThe big difference is that Sabean's championship teams had a reasonably young core that you could add complementary pieces to, like Gregor Blanco or Andres Torres. This is pretty much what all good teams do, not just the Giants. Farhan had an aging, expensive core that he needed to wait out their contracts while pretty much remaking the entire AAA team and MLB players on the fly. And the churn for the most part has produced without taking up much payroll space for the future, or the development of younger players.
DeleteI don't think one approach is significantly better than another. I am just pointing out that there are other ways to find undervalued players and The Churn has not been significantly more successful and finding them than Sabes regime.
DeleteReturning to question about whether your dream offseason is feasible, I think the short answer is that it's a pretty good dream and seems close to feasible. If I were to pick nits, they would be as follows:
ReplyDelete1. It'll cost more to sign Yamamoto. I share SteveVA's concerns above about holding out for Yamamoto until the end and coming up short and then making desperation moves. So if they really want him, they'll need to overpay. That will affect the salary-cap calculations.
2. On the last Giants Talk podcast Kuiper & Britt related rumors that they seemed to believe that the team really is focusing on Ohtani, which (again echoing SteveVA) seems pretty pie in the sky and would require a real overpayment above an already stratospheric price. If they do that it'll certainly blow the offseason wide open. More likely they'll be left empty-handed like last offseason.
3. You're right that surplus outfielders need to be moved. But I'd move Conforto before either Yastrzemski or Slater. He disappointed last year and it will likely require eating upwards of half of his $18M player option that he exercised. My eyes tell me that Yaz is a better hitter, a better outfielder, more clutch, and a better teammate. The knock on Yaz is primarily that he gets injured every time he gets hot -- but that's no worse than Conforto. Slater is also much cheaper and a handy role player, and an excellent PH against LHP. I fear he may have lost his speed and base-stealing ability what with his chronic hamstring problem, though.
4. Not clear to me that there will be enough in the budget for Anderson, but otherwise I don't oppose. But there will be too many shortstops (Anderson, Luciano, Schmitt, Fitzgerald). I wonder if Luciano could be packaged with Mason Black and Carson Whisenhunt for Corbin Burnes? Burnes attended St. Mary's and would likely sign long-term. Perhaps that would demonstrate a commitment to winning enough to impress Ohtani.
The numbers I used were MLBTR's predictions. There is always some variance from those but MLBTR's track record with their predictions is almost astonishingly accurate. The reason I put YtY and Slater on my trading block is they have way more trade value than Conforto and when was the last time the Giants ate money to trade a player? I just don't think Conforto is tradable for anything close to terms the Giants would accept. Lastly Luciano is still young. I would not trade him even if the Giants do sign Anderson. Give him more AB's in AAA. He can be the backup plan if Anderson does not perform or gets hurt or he can be more ready to step into a starting role after Anderson has a huge season and goes somewhere else via free agency after rejecting his QO.
DeleteFor the most part, the Giants have gotten value from Farhan's pitching acquisitions, because pitchers like coming to SF.
ReplyDeleteThey also like leaving for more money.
And more offense.
2023's chaos wasn't a selling point: they would have to pay dearly to get Manaea back even with a "pitcher's manager."
Zaidi just hasn't been able to sell Oracle to a hitting stud FA and so far hasn't found a proven one in the draft.
They need the Big Bat. They must get one.
If they can't sign Ohtani (and, realistically, how could they without a billion dollars?) and they are shunned by (or don't want) Bellinger, FZ should at least check in with SD for Soto who would be as perfect as perfect could be IF the southern neighbors would trade him to SF without requiring too many of the young pitchers the Giants have.
As hungry as SD is for pitching and how badly they want to shed salary, maybe they’ll "only" want as much as SF would give.
Bonds came at 28, Soto is 25.
If SF can get Soto for 2024, Fellow Dominicans Luciano (22 yo), Doval (26 yo), Rodríguez (24 yo), Rayner Arias (18 yo), and the “Dominican Dandy” Himself plus fellow Caribbeans Flores, Estrada, Matos, Ramos, Arteaga, et al would have a year to sell him on San Francisco.
And the greatest Giants, Willie and Barry can extol Giant virtues, and how Soto can be among the Best of the Best in San Francisco.
Another Latin Islander, the Baby Bull, could help, too.
Maybe signing Ohtani would be easier...
According to Fangraphs (per RosterResource), The Giants are estimated for 2024 be $68M below the 1st Luxury Tax threshold and another $20M below each subsequent threshold for 2024.
ReplyDeleteFor 2025, $100M comes off the books, so, if Ownership allows an overage to sign a couple pricey FAs, it won't extend to 2025.
Fandom, of course, wants more spending, but it's not that the Giants haven't tried: they have been willing to go to huge sums for Stanton, Harper, Judge, and even Correa which was an outrageous overpay that they were fortunate to wiggle out of.
They don't have to overpay for pitchers, and, although another Ace is always nice, it's not a must like a power bat, or 2.
2024 Anderson = 2023 Conforto
ReplyDeleteHasn't played more than 123 games in 5 years
Belt = Injury
Often at exactly the wrong time like 2021
I agree, Belt is an injury risk. That is why they can get him on 1 year deal. When he is healthy, he is a much better hitter than a healthy Conforto. Note I am not saying Belt should be the centerpiece of any plan but could be a low risk(1 year deal) complimentary player. Pretty much ditto with Anderson. If he's a bust, they can still bring up Luciano with a little more AAA experience and they are only on the hook for 1 year.
DeleteInteresting to note that there are 40+ messages and GM Pete Putila's name is not mentioned once. Doubt he came from the Astros to silt over in the Giants front office. Some are giving rave reviews for the Giants first 3-4 picks in the 23 draft. Maybe Putila had something to do with that. I guess my point is that with the addition of Putila, would like to think he provides a meaningful upgrade to the Giants FO braintrust.
ReplyDeleteWho knows what Peppermint Pete does? I think his job with the Astros was Player Development. I read somewhere that he may have been the voice in the room advocating for the aggressive promotions we saw last season.
DeleteReports have placed him heavily in Korea and Japan, scouting and schmoozing Asian players, prospects, and agents. He seems to be lead in working up the Lee deal, if it comes to pass.
DeleteHow will the Giants address the outfield glut if they sign an OFer and especially a DH?
ReplyDeleteIn addition to the "regulars":
Conforto, Hanniger, Slater, & YtY
and youngsters:
Matos, and Ramos,
and fill-ins:
Sabol, Meckler, and Fitzgerald
and DH:
Flores or Wade when not playing 1B
and there's still:
Johnson
What about the middle of the lineup?
The Giants finished 27th in Slugging, 19th in HRs, 23rd in RBIs, 24th in Runs, 27th in triples (even with a Triples Alley), 25th in doubles (with a short down-the-line wall in right), 28th in total bases, 26th in OPS.
An additional Ace would be nice but not at the expense of a B-A-T
So the problem with middle-order hitters is there are only about 2 good ones available in free agency. If you can land one of them great but they are going to be beaucoup expensive. Alternate strategy is to sign 2-3 veteran pitchers then trade from your stable of younger pitchers for a cleanup hitter.
DeleteYes, agreed, but aren't the power bats SF would be trading tor with young inexpensive pitching going to be OF/1B/DH glut and the money for signing 2-3 veteran pitchers eating into what will be necessary to keep power bats that were traded for? Kinda.
DeleteIf the above makes any sense, which in re-reading, is questionable
Whatever Giants do, as long as they can add a front line pitcher as a minimum I would be happy anything else would be icing on the cake.
ReplyDelete