Today marked the offseason deadline for options to be exercises. The Giants had 3 players with player options AKA opt outs: Sean Manaea LHP, Ross Stripling RHP and Michael Conforto OF. They had a team option on Alex Cobb RHP which seemed like a no-brainer until it was announced that Cobb would undergo hip surgery which is projected to keep him out for at least 6 months or at least the first month of next season. Here is the breakdown with the results of these decisions:
Sean Manaea LHP- Player Option for $12.5 M. Declined. Manaea finished the season strong and was actually one of the better pitchers in the league in the second half of the season. On top of that he had a 2-3 MPH velocity gain which he maintained all season making him an attractive target for bargain hunters in the free agent market. Even at a bargain, though, he should land a contract well north of 1 yr/$12.5 M so no surprise he opted out. Combined with Cobb's injury, as it stands now, the Giants would start the season with just one proven reliable SP, Logan Webb. They simply can't do that and are looking at a need to add not only a frontline SP but at least one other above-average SP via free agency or trade.
Ross Stripling RHP- Player Option for $12.5 M. Exercised. I have to say Stripling is in my doghouse after he complained to the press about his roll when the Giants delayed his return from the IL, essentially accusing them of creating a phantom injury to manipulate the roster which can get a team in a whole lot of trouble with MLB. At the same time he admitted he did not pitch well enough to opt out of the second year of his contract. So he'll try to figure out what went wrong last year and do better this year. Perhaps Bob Melvin's more orthodox use of pitchers will be more to his liking? Does that mean Melvin will let him get bombed for a few more games than Kapler did before losing faith in him?
Michael Conforto OF- Player Option for $18 M. Exercised. There were rumblings that Conforto might opt out but it was hard to imagine him finding a better deal on the open market after his second subpar season in 3 years with the other year being lost to injury. On the other hand, he looked miserable as the season wound down. My suspicion is he would have opted out anyway if Kapler was still the manager. This move leaves the Giants with 4 underperforming, oft-injured OF's on the roster with little room for upgrading. They may end up having to eat some $$$ to release or trade one or two to make room for a free agent upgrade and/or opportunity for younger OF's like Tyler Fitzgerald or Heliot Ramos.
Alex Cobb RHP- Team Option for $10 M with $2 M buyout. With a net cost of $8 M it seems like a risk worth taking that Cobb will recover completely from his hip surgery in time to be a #2 SP for the last 5 months of the season. It's still a good deal if he can do that for 4 months or 3 months, but it's also possible he never gets back to pre-injury form and it's another sunk cost. Is it just me or do the Giants seem to have more than their share of potential sunk-cost contracts?
I am not going to waste my time and yours grinding out payroll projections and how that impacts free agent signings. If you are into that, you can find detailed articles on other sites like mccoveychronicles.com. I will say the outcome of all these decisions is to make FZ's job upgrading the starting rotation and OF more difficult regardless of cost or payroll constraints.
These opt ins can’t be an excuse for FZ to not spend money. He made this bed and now he needs to lie in it. When he came onboard 5 years ago he could blame the situation on the previous regime but this situation is all on Farhan!
ReplyDeleteThe 6 highest paid Giants for 2024 (this doesn't count Manaea) were acquired by FZ, and only one, Taylor Rogers, can be counted on to be particularly beneficial to begin next season.
ReplyDeleteThe cost? $87,000,000
The total guaranteed payroll (which does not include arbitration for 6 players) is only $108M.
Seems that while Kapler lost team in 2023, Zaidi may have already lost 2024, unless Ownership bites the bullet on payroll next year.
"only Taylor Rogers, can be counted on to be particularly beneficial to begin next season"
DeleteThairo is MORE than beneficial:
3.9 fWA
ROAA - #2 MLB — all positions
"The 6 highest paid Giants for 2024" – Thairo is NOT one of the 6 highest paid. MLBTR arbitration estimate is $3.2MM, far below the highest paid Giants..
DeleteThe 6 highest paid are Haniger ($20MM), Conforto ($18MM), Stripling ($15MM), DeSclafani ($15MM), and Taylor Rogers ($12MM). Manaea would have slotted in there @ $15MM.
As Doc has warned, if he feels the heat this year, what will he do in terms of loading up on fat, long contracts for 2024 and beyond? A good, young pitcher and Bellinger might be nice. But remember when the previous regime signed big multi-year deals with several different free agent pitchers ... and at the same time thought it was a good idea to extend aging fielders past their primes? This is going to be quite tricky ... how do you overpay for free agents without burdening rosters down-the-line?
ReplyDeleteI think you have to be willing to cut the sunk costs down the line, i.e. you're paying them for now, just stringing out the paychecks into the future. Texas won by spending now (choosing wisely among FAs) and worrying about it later - along with gems from the farm system. That's the current blueprint. The D-backs were a great story but in the end, not enough.
DeleteGood riddance to Manaea. Only was good when it no longer mattered.
ReplyDeleteStripling might turn it around (though I see him being a DFA candidate in about June.)
Conforto might be servicable off the bench.
Cobb is a sunk cost. Might be good when he returns, but I see little real difference between what he does for the Giants in 24 and what Desclafani did for them last season.
All in all, a bunch of meh here.
Giants can sign Manaea. Maybe also sign up Matt Chapman (let JD Davis go), Cody Bellinger (let Conforto go), Ohtani and Blake Snell and let's see what happens!
ReplyDeleteShort of signing Ohtani, can Farhan dig himself out of this mess he's created.
ReplyDeleteYamamoto would bolster a rotation of 1, but can the Giants last until Cobb comes back in May (if he does) with 3 uncertainties: a 21-year old whose 7 up-and-down career MLB starts (some were very good and some were not) couple with DeSclafani and Stripling who need career U-turn's, and some untried relievers.
Zaidi may have a plan because he didn't sweet talk Manaea into staying which could have helped.
Bellinger is potential Big Reward but Big Bust is equally likely: he did stink for 3 years before his 2023 breakout.
Good pitching that the Giants had down the stretch needs some bats. Who will they be?
Lee might help in CF defensively, but where's the team power going to come from?
Short of Mr Wonderful, there is no sure fire answer in Free Agency.
Hitters will have to come through trades - no FA hitter with toonder chooses SF, do they?
DeleteTrades or the farm...
DeleteMelissa Lockard in yesterday's The Athletic profiles 30 Giant Rule 5 eligible players. Not much of her excellent article hasn't been covered in Doc's posts. She offers some suggestions on who might be added to the 40-man roster. It's a good read but does require subscription.
ReplyDeletehttps://theathletic.com/5040599/2023/11/07/san-francisco-giants-rule-5-preview-2023/