I probably should have done this before starting the Scouting the 2024 Draft series but better late than never, right? It's fun to get a first return read on the draft by seeing how player performed in their first pro experience. It's always a small sample size and not all that predictive of future success, but I will say it's definitely better for draft picks to perform well out of the gate than not.
1. Paul Skenes RHP, Pirates(College): ACL: 0-0, 0.00, 1 IP, 9.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9. A: 0-0, 0.00, 3 IP, 12.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9. AA: 0-0, 13.50, 2.2 IP, 16.88 K/9, 6.75 BB/9. Hard to make much out of this extremely small sample. Skenes pitched 122.2 innings during the college season after pitching 85 innings the previous year. I would have taken Dylan Crews with the first overall pick so will be following their careers with interest. My comp for Skenes' ceiling is Justin Verlander but for every Justin Verlander there are about 50 Jameson Taillons.
2. Dylan Crews OF, Nationals(College): FCL: 1.000/1.000/1.333, 0 BB, 0 K, 3 PA. A: .355/.423/.645, 5 HR, 8.5 BB%, 26.8 K%, 71 PA. AA: .208/.318/.278, 3 SB, 9.4 BB%, 22.4 K%, 85 PA. Again, I would have taken Crews 1-1. Elite hitter and athlete from an elite college conference. Although he was at the top of most predraft rankings, I understand there were some scouts who worried about whether the bat would play at higher levels. AA is an aggressive placement even for an elite college draftee but I would say the 27% K rate in A ball is a definite concern.
3. Max Clark OF, Tigers(HS): FCL: .283/.411/.543, 2 HR, 4 SB, 16.1 BB%, 17.9 K%, 56 PA. A: .154/353/.179, 0 HR, 1 SB, 23.5 BB%, 29.4 K%, 51 PA. First HS player selected. Too good for the complex league but A ball is tough for a player fresh out of HS to drop into after most of the players have over half a season of experience under their belts. HS draftees often struggle in A ball in their first full season. Now Clark has seen what to expect and has a winter to prep.
4. Wyatt Langford OF, Rangers(College): ACL: .385/.429/.846, HR, SB, 7.1 BB%, 21.4 K%, 14 PA. A+: .333/.453/.644, 5 HR, 7 SB, 17.0 K%, 17.0 BB%, 106 PA. AA: .405/.519/.762, 4 HR, SB, 20.4 BB%, 13.0 K%, 54 PA. AAA: .368/.538/.526, 0 HR, 3 SB, 23.1 BB%, 23.1 K%, 26 PA. There were analysts who believed Langford was a better draft prospect than Dylan Crews and oh my! They might have been right! Pretty tough to top this for a pro debut. Question is placement for 2024 and whether he sustain it over a full season. Wow! The Rangers are on a roll!
5. Walker Jenkins OF, Twins(HS): FCL: .333/.390/.537, 2 HR, 4 SB, 8.5 BB%, 13.6 K%, 59 PA. A: .392/.446/.608, HR, 2 SB, 7.1 BB%, 10.7 K%. The predraft debate between Jenkins and Max Clark was the classic speed/athleticism vs bat/power. Early returns indicate the right guy fell to the Twins.
6. Jacob Wilson SS, A's(College): ACL: .455/.500/.636, 0.0 BB%, 8.3 K%, 12 PA. A+: .318/.378/.455, HR, 4 SB, 6.1 BB%, 10.1 K%, 99 PA. Dad is former MLB SS Jack Wilson. Put up elite secondary stats at Grand Canyon U but friendly hitting environment and questionable competition. Put up nice looking numbers in a decent sample size with an aggressive placement in A+ out of the draft.
7. Rhett Lowder RHP, Reds(College): DNP. Pitched deep into the College postseason with Wake Forest. Reds understandably cautious.
8. Blake Mitchell C, Royals(HS): FCL: .147/.423/.176, 32.7 BB%, 25.6 K%, 52 PA. HS catcher demographic does not have a great track record for drafting success. Royals will need to be patient.
9. Chase Dollander RHP, Rockies(College): DNP. Preseason # 1 overall draft prospect on some boards. Had an inconsistent junior season. Coors Field does not sound like an ideal MLB destination.
10. Noble Meyer RHP, Marlins(HS): FCL: 0-1, 4.50, 4 IP, 13.5 K/9, 6.75 BB/9. A: 0-0, 3.86, 7 IP, 11.57 K/9, 5.14 BB/9. HS pitching is risky but the ceiling intriguing. Meyer was #1 on my board out of the "big 3" HS pitchers. I would have been happy had he fallen to the Giants and they took him. Oh, and kudos to Kim Ng for landing 2 of those "big 3". Marlins owner made a huge mistake letter her walk.
11. Nolan Schanuel 1B, Angels(College): ACL: .250/.500/.375, 0 HR, 1 SB, 33.3 BB%, 8.3 K%, 12 PA. A: .833/.778/.833, 0 HR, 0 SB, 11.1 BB%, 0.0 K%, 9 PA. AA: .333/.474/.467, 1 HR, 1 SB, 21.1 BB%, 11.8 K%, 76 PA. MLB: .275/.402/.330, 1 HR, 0 SB, 15.2 BB%, 14.4 K%, 132 PA. Wow! I was a bit skeptical of Schanuel's video game numbers from a mid/low-major college program but wow! The power didn't show up but other MLB numbers look fantastic after rocketing through the Angels system. Will it prove to be a mirage when MLB pitchers get a book on him?
12. Tommy Troy SS, D'Backs(College): ACL: .455/.563/.636, 0 HR, 1 SB, 25.0 BB%, 12.5 K%, 16 PA. .247/.343/.447, 4 HR, 8 SB, 12.1 BB%, 26.3 K%, 99 PA. Troy was the guy I was hoping would fall to the Giants. Pretty nice numbers with an aggressive placement in A+ ball although the K rate might be a least a pink flag. Turns out he did all is with a fractured bone in his foot and underwent surgery in Sept.
13. Matt Shaw SS, Cubs(College): ACL: .500/.636/1.000, 1 HR, 2 SB, 18.2 BB%, 9.1 K%, 11 PA. A+: .393/.427/.655, 4 HR, 7 SB, 4.5 BB%, 13.5 K%, 89 PA. AA: .292/.329/.523, 3 HR, 6 SB, 4.3 BB%, 17.1 K%, 70 PA. Very similar player to Tommy Troy. I liked Troy slightly better and he went one pick ahead. Nice pro debut for Shaw but will his swing early and often approach hold up at higher levels?
14. Kyle Teel C, Red Sox(College): FCL: .429/.556/.857, 1 HR, 22.2 BB%, 0.0 K%, 9 PA. A+: .377/.485/.453, 0 HR, 1 SB, 16.7 BB%, 16.7 K%, 66 PA. AA: .323/.462/.484, 1 HR, 2 SB, 20.5 BB%, 28.2 K%, 39 PA. Teel fell further than most mock drafts placed him. Some had him as high as #6 overall. Seeing has how he was a lefty-hitting catcher with elite K/BB I was convinced the Giants would draft him if he fell to them. He almost did and he looks like he would have been a great pick.
15. Jacob Gonzalez SS, White Sox(College): ACL: .250/.375/.250, 18.8 BB%, 12.5 K%, 16 PA. A: .207/.328/.261, 1 HR, 1 SB, 14.6 BB%, 16.8 K%, 137 PA. Early preseason draft rankings had him as high as #4 overall. Concerns about the bat dropped his stock. Perhaps those concerns were well founded?
16. Bryce Eldridge OF/RHP, Giants(HS): ACL: .294/.393/.647, 5 HR, 14.8 BB%, 26.2 K%, 61 PA. A: .293/.406/.379, 1 HR, 1 SB, 15.9 BB%, 26.1 K%, 69 PA. I sniffed out Eldridge and his true 2-way potential late in the draft cycle but once he hit my radar screen I become more convinced by the hour the Giants were in on him. Tremendous physical talent at 6'7", 235 lbs. Has a short stroke that is quick to the ball as a hitter and looks like a hoss on the mound. Giants shut him down on the pitching side after the draft but the hitting side really shined. Can't wait to get a live look with San Jose this spring and summer. If they aren't making an early trip to SoCal I might have to make a pilgrimage to SJ or another Cal League locale to make sure I see him.
17. Enrique Bradfield OF, Orioles(College): FCL: .556/.667/.667, 0 HR, 1 SB, 25.0 BB%, 25.0 K%, 12 PA. .302/.494/.340, 0 HR, 20 SB, 24.7 BB%, 11.7 K%, 77 PA. A+: .118/.286/.118, 0 HR, 4 SB, 19.0 BB%, 19.0 K%, 21 PA. Slap and dash hitter with speed to burn from an elite college program. Players with his tool and skill set all but went extinct in the analytics era. Will the new rules bring them back? Happy the Giants went in another direction.
18. Brock Wilken 3B, Brewers(College): ACL: .333/.464/.571, 1 HR, 1 SB, 14.3 BB%, 21.4 K%, 28 PA. A+: .289/.427/.438, 2 HR, 3 SB, 18.0 BB%, 21.3 K%, 150 PA. AA: .217/.280/.565, 2 HR, 0 SB, 8.0 BB%, 36.0 K%, 25 PA. IMO, best pure power on the college side of the draft but somewhat limited defensively. Solid start to pro career with aggressive placement in A+. Also got a preview of AA to give him a head start to next season. If he can maintain adequate contact, he's should soon be a middle-of-the-order bat for the BrewCrew.
19. Brayden Taylor 3B, Rays(College): FCL: .222/.417/.556, 0 HR, 2 SB, 25.0 BB%, 25.0 K%, 12 PA. A: .244/.354/.512, 5 HR, 9 SB, 14.6 BB%, 32.3 K%, 96 PA. Rated as one of the best pure hitters in the draft by many analysts. That's a lot of K's for a college draftee in A ball.
20. Arjun Nimmala SS, Blue Jays(HS): FCL: .200/.500/.320, 0 HR, 1 SB, 35.0 BB%, 20.0 K%, 40 PA. Lean wiry HS SS with excellent physical projection. A raw talent who will require some patience to develop. Prospects like him tend to be boom or bust, mostly bust.
21. Chase Davis OF, Cardinals(College): A: .212/.366/.269, 0 HR, 3 SB, 19.1 BB%, 26 K%, 131 PA. Numbers in A ball not impressive. Don't trust college numbers from Arizona.
22. Colt Emerson SS, Mariners(College): ACL: .536/.629/.786, 1 HR, 4 SB, 17.1 BB%, 17.1 K%, 35 PA. A: .302/.436/.444, 1 HR, 4 SB, 13.9 BB%, 17.1 K%, 79 PA. This draft was deep for HS hitters in general and HS SS's in particular. I did not scout Emerson predraft but looks like the Mariners got another good one here.
23. Ralphy Velazquez C, Guardians(HS): ACL: .348/.393/.739, 2 HR, 1 SB, 10.7 BB%, 17.9 K%, 28 PA. At least a grade 70 name. Solid scouting reports but too small a sample to judge much from pro debut.
24. Hursten Waldrep RHP, Braves(College): A: 0-0, 3.00, 3 IP, 24.00 K/9, 3.00 BB/9. A+: 0-0, 0.75, 12 IP, 12.75 K/9, 3.75 BB/9. AA: 20-1, 2.70, 10 IP, 9.90 K/9, 6.30 BB/9. AAA: 0-0, 0.00, 4.1 IP, 10.38 K/9, 6.23 BB/9. College power pitcher who was inconsistent as a junior causing his draft stock to drop. College pitchers with good stuff and command can move very fast.
25. Dillon Head OF, Padres(HS): ACL: .294/.413/.471, 1 HR, 3 SB, 17.5 BB%, 14.3 K%, 63 PA. A: .241/.311/.333, 0 HR, 1 SB, 6.6 BB%, 16.4 K%, 61 PA. I don't know anything about him. Decent numbers in reasonbly aggressive pro debut.
26. George Lombard Jr SS, Yankees(HS): FCL: .417/.588/.500, 0 HR, 3 SB, 29.4 BB%, 11.8 K%, 17 PA. A: .273/.415/.303, 0 HR, 1 SB, 19.5 BB%, 24.4 K%, 41 PA. Big HS SS at 6' 3". Don't know much about him except someone named George Lombard had a modest MLB career from 1998-2006.
27. Aidan Miller 3B, Phillies(HS): FCL: .414/.528/.483, 0 HR, 0 SB, 16.7 BB%, 13.9 K%, 36 PA. A: .216/.341/.297, 0 HR, 4 SB, 13.6 BB%, 22.7 K%, 44 PA. I scouted him predraft and really liked his bat. Time will tell.
It will be interesting to see how Walker Martin debuts next year. Their 2nd round pick 6'2" 188 L/R SS. He's ranked #5 in the latest MLB SF Giants top 30 prospects list already.
ReplyDelete6'7" Eldridge's professional 18-yo slugging/OPS compare favorably with 6'7" Judge's college 19-yo numbers @ Fresno State.
ReplyDeleteCould be...
Doesn't apply to Eldridge but tomorrow is the deadline to select players eligible for the Rule 5 draft in order to protect them from being selected.
Of the Giants "Top 30" (MLB.com), these are eligible (from Around the Foghorn); all except Miller are only in High-A ball:
Grant McCray (No. 7)
Aeverson Arteaga (No. 12)
Jairo Pomares (No. 17)
Trevor McDonald (No. 22)
Onil Perez (No. 24)
Adrian Sugastey (No. 25)
Erik Miller (No. 29)
At this moment, Giants have 36 on their 40-man roster.
They could protect 4 but if they have no vacancy, FZ can't pluck anyone form the other teams. At least that is how the rule appears to apply.
Who in Sacramento is worthy of protecting? Wilson, Johnson, Diaz?
DeleteWhat "veterans" on the 40-man roster with questionable value should be protected: Villar, Hjelle, Wisley, Waites?
Who is not of the future?
Probably Erik Miller is only Sacramento player you could consider for protection, maybe Trenton Brooks and Kai-Wei Teng?
DeleteYou called that right, Doc — Giants added Erik Miller, Kai-Wei Teng to their 40-man today. Also added Trevor McDonald, which might be a little surprising.
ReplyDelete