The Mets continued their financial rampage through the Hot Stove League signing my personal favorite free agent, Kodai Senga RHP, to a 5 yr/$75 M contract. I've seen video of Senga's stuff and he's got an impressive mix of 4 pitches led by a mid-90's FB and an off-the-table splitter. I think he's at least a #2 SP and this contract is a bargain for the Mets(although it can be argued that their cumulative payroll is not a bargain). Senga was the guy I was hoping would save the Giants Hot Stove season but the lack of rumors since someone spotted his mug on the scoreboard at Oracle Park seemed ominous.
The brisk pace of signings continued unabated:
Kevin Kiermeier OF to the Blue Jays. No word on terms.
David Robertson RHP to the Mets.
Andrew Heaney LHP to the Rangers
Jose Quintana LHP to the Mets
Willson Contreras C to the Cardinals to replace Yadi.
True or not, the vibes coming out of the Giants front office are that they are well behind the curve on these deals and are in the mode of letting the market come to them. That can be a great strategy but the risk is the market dries up before it turns.
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The Giants signed a minor league free agent out of the Guardians organization, Raymond Burgos LHP. He was given a NRI(Non-Roster Invitation) to spring training. Burgos is 24 years old, tall and slender with good stuff. He's been held back by injuries and has never pitched above A+ ball but could move fast on the reliever track if he stays healthy for a full season.
Correa switched agencies in the off-season. Boras will milk this for every penny. It may exceed the Judge in total value, 12 years at least.
ReplyDeleteAgree and unless they are to a point of desperation, I would think that would be well out of the Giants comfort zone, as it should be.
DeleteI agree not trying much on Senga was disappointing. Susan Slusser suggests that they're also out on Chris Bassitt, who I thought might be helpful.
ReplyDeleteIf they're looking for the market to come to them, my best guesses at possible targets would include three position players: Michael Conforto (seems just up Farhan's alley as an injury reclamation, plus he's a west-coast fellow), Will Myers, and Brandon Drury, both for obvious reasons.
For his established relievers with closing experience, I'd guess Taylor Rogers (buying a little low and a great marketing opportunity) and Adam Ottovino.
For starters maybe Ross Stripling (obvious choice by many), Noah Syndergaard (another reclamation), and maybe a couple of old guys on short contracts - Zach Greinke or Johnny Cueto. I wouldn't mind Cueto, as he looked pretty good for the White Sox and I just like watching him pitch. And I wonder if he has some late-career Luis Tiant in him.
I would say that is a pretty good summary of what is left.
DeleteCueto pitched great last year all things considered but can he play nice with Bart? Stripling and Rogers and even Thor would be a decent option and we might just finish .500 next year! Or we could try tanking and going for a top 6 pick like we should have done 5 off-seasons ago. If our ceiling is a .500 team why not go all in on the youth movement and take a year or two in the shorts to try to get a few top draft picks? Not like fans are going to show up this season with any of the moves above. It would make sense to spend the next 2 years trading anyone but Logan or Camilo that has value and having solid drafts at the top.
DeleteI don''t accept the premise that the Giants ceiling is .500 without Cueto/Swanson/Rodon.
DeleteZIPS projected 83 wins for 2023 Giants before adding Haniger.
DeleteSigning Sean Manaea to a Rodón-light contract @ 2 yrs/$25M with a 2024 opt-out fills the rotation IF everyone pans out!
ReplyDeleteHow likely is that?
A very interesting connection is Manaea's agent, the Boras Corporation: who else but Carlos Correa is represented by Número Uno? Nice to be in communication, no?
Doc, you seemed to like the Giants talking to Correa but were not liking a prospective contract of 10+ years (hopefully that represents you reasonably).
What contract could you abide? Surely not 12 years/$361M, biggest, longest contract of the Season...
Probably around 8 yr/$240 M, which is clearly not going to get it done.
DeleteI can't understand the Rodin signing last year.
DeleteBased on his injury history, were you betting lottery style (pure random) or Big-Short style (based on some rationale)?
If the latter, you should have done a longer deal.
If the former, why? If he had gotten hurt again, it's not just the money ('Oh, luckily, it was for just one or two years'), but losing the chance for his contract to contribute to team winning - i.e. you were, in reality, betting (randomly - and not so responsibly) on the team's success (it's not just betting on 'Oh, it's only money' one-contract success).
You should spend money, when adding free agents, for the purpose of enhancing team success and, the extra money premium is usually the cost to get reliability. This kind of random lottery-style betting is the oppose of enhancing reliability (the other kind of betting, based on some medical rationale, is more reliable, in comparison) Now, if the bet worked out, as Radon did by staying healthy, it's only for one year, and the next year, you are back to square one, keeping in mind that one year contracts usually cost more, per year, than multi-year contracts. And you could be repeating this for a while, betting on someone's health or comeback.
By paying a little more money, these two factors (more per year, repeatedly betting) are less concerning. (I mean, players still do get hurt. So, that risk doesn't go away).
And if you can take advantage of medical expertise that other teams do not have access to, then a longer deal is warranted.
With all that said, I don't think Manaea is in that category. Hopefully, the wizard pitching coaches can help him.
Every pitcher is an injury risk every season and the risk goes up with every additional year of the contract. Don't believe it? Just ask Bobby Evans. Every GM's wet dream(pardon the expression) is to be able to pay every pitcher 1 year at a time. FZ appears to believe that injury history is less predictive of future injury than many believe thus it creates an opportunity to sign an undervalued commodity both for less AAV and for fewer years. Not sure what you aren't understanding about that.
DeleteYes, there is always the risk, for all players.
DeleteFrom reading here, I recall injury risk comments about body types, throwing motions/mechanics, etc.