Thursday, December 15, 2022

Hot Stove League Update: Rodon to Yanks; Thor to Dodgers

No big surprise here but the Yankees signed Carlos Rodon LHP for $162 M for 6 injury plagued years.  The Giants end up with one 6.2 fWAR season and a compensation draft pick that comes after Competitive Balance Round B.  In other words, the equivalent of an early third round draft pick.  If this seems like meager compensation, remember that FZ does not value the draft pick itself nearly as much as the extra bonus pool money that comes with it which allows him to manipulate the draft.  Whether that is actually a good draft strategy or not is debatable but that's the FZ way.  Meanwhile, the Giant pitching wizards will go to work and try to coax another 4-6 WAR out of Sean Manaea LHP and/or Ross Stripling RHP.

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In an obvious move, the Dodgers signed Thor to a 1 year contract to rebuild his value.  He was not so Thor-like last season as he struggled to adjust to a pedestrian average velocity of 94.5 MPH with command issues, particularly of his secondary pitches.  Like the Giants of recent years, Dodgers are generally quite good at rebuilding pitching careers so watch out for Thor next season.

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Turns out nobody actually talked to Brandon Crawford SS about moving off SS in case of a major SS free agent signing.  Yikes!  Craw is no dummy though and says he is prepared to help in any way he can and understands it's not going to be at shortstop.

12 comments:

  1. I read an article that Crawford received a phone call from Farhan 15 minutes after the news of the signing broke. Not speaking to Crawford prior to the signing is Yikes! in deed. What happened to the great communicators - Farhan and Gabe. At least give your longest serving Giant the courtesy of letting him know that they were in serious discussions and a change of position was in the cards. On KNBR, Mike Krukow said he was sure that Crawford had been consulted regarding the signing and the possibility of changing positions - I guess Mike was incorrect. If they did not talk with Brandon prior to the signing of Correa, then it is a blemish on this very positive move by the Giants. APGiantsfan

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  2. I’d be very surprised if Crawford was totally blindsided by this move. You’d have to think there had to at least be some expectation of this on Crawfords part.
    Regardless, I was debating between whether a move to third or second would be better for the team. Crawford seemingly would be a great fit defensively at 3B but that would prevent Villar and Davis from getting their shots to prove themselves. I’d personally rather play him at 2B and let Estrada carry the super utility role. Estrada can even takeover if Crawford can’t hang with the bat anymore.

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  3. Yes, I also hope we can repeat with Manaea and Stripling what we had done with Gausman and Rodon.

    And another point - I assume the 1 year strategy with free agent pitchers is more suitable if they are not counted on as your main frontline starting pitching contributors. That way, in the case of involving health risk, if it goes against you, the plan for the team, for that year, doesn't get severely impacted. On the other hand, if you get an ace performance out of it, as we did with Gausman and Rodon, and if, at the start, you do it with a 'middle or end of rotation' expectation (for example, the Dodgers with Urias and Kershaw already on the team such that you can say, we are only counting on Thor as the 3rd or 4th starter), then, trying to replace Thor next off season, after completing his (in this scenario) successful one year deal, will not be so ciritical (because the Bums already have a couple top starters, with Buehler coming back just before the next offseason possibly, plus a few in-house options, probably).

    In our case, we were able to sign Rodon after Gausman left. Now, we may be able to replace Rodon with Manaea and Stripling (perhaps Harrison mid-season). We will see if this is repeatable, to various degrees. On the other hand, if we have a few Harrison-like options, the situation may be more stable from one year to another.

    So, I am happy with the Gausman and Rodon deals. I am also just speculating about other possibilities, involving longer term, repeatable approaches.

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  4. Before getting to the main point of this comment, you have to wonder how/why Craw fell out of the equation when all the calculations on Correa's contract were signed, sealed, and delivered. Sort of like "tell Sam he was traded" – who's in charge of that? It certainly was common knowledge – everyone including the Giants old SS knew, after Judge didn't sign, they were going after a new SS – but no one got tagged with "tell the old guy."
    Bad things can happen and in the euphoria of the moment, someone integral to everything was forgotten.
    Perhaps, and maybe this is trying to whitewash the Giants who are about as woke as any sports team is, the acceptance, the magnitude of the obligation, and the meaning to the franchise was overwhelming. Sorry, Brandon, you've been shoved aside. Who wants to deliver that?
    Main point: As for "The Contract," Ben Clemens of Fangraphs has an interesting explanation of why suddenly are there many long contracts, and it all has to do with monetary inflation for the nation and the "big world" beyond the "little world" of baseball: 2033 dollars will be worth a lot less than 2023 dollars.
    "But wait, there’s more!"
    The ever expanding CBT has its contribution: an exorbitant contract or two will be eaten by raising the tax threshold as long as the team fill the seats while increasing prices.
    It is College Level math but if you subscribe to Fangraphs you might find it interesting (sometimes they let you read an article without signing in):
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-are-teams-issuing-extremely-long-contracts/

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    1. For what it's worth maybe Brandon could asked to be traded, if he wants to play shortstop there must be a team that might be interested, sometimes things just workout that way.

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  5. One more thing!
    If, on Fangraphs, you line up Crawford's "Def" with Correa's "Def" for the last 8 years (time Correa was in MLB), only in 2 years – 2018 & 2019 – is Correa's "Def" higher than Crawford's, and it's also lower in 2023 projection.
    OTOH, if Baseball-Reference's dWAR is used, Correa's been ahead for the last 5 years.
    "Def" (runs) and "dWAR" (wins) do measure different things, so that may account for something.

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  6. As far as why Crawford was quite easily brushed aside, it's easy. He's not FZs boy. FZ didn't find him. He was starring long before FZ got here. As far as FZ is concerned, similar to anybody who FZ didn't find, sign, or draft, he's not important. Bart. Ramos. Luciano. If they're not his, they're expendable. And Correa is FZs boy. If we are saddled with this contact and he doesn't perform, then it's on FZ. 100%.

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    1. I see zero evidence that FZ has discriminated against or tried to get rid of players acquired by previous administration. In fact, quite the opposite. Bad take!

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    2. Whats wrong with Crawford being traded to another team ? Surely if that's what wants , doesn't seem like a bad thing?

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    3. Nothing wrong with it but there is zero evidence Crawford wants to be traded. In fact, quite the opposite. Another bad take!

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  7. FZ signed Crawford to his very nice 2 yrs/$32M contract on which he returned 2.0 WAR in the first year. At 3rd, 2nd, and fill-in SS in his age 36, he be well compensated.
    Don't cry for him...

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