Scouting the Draft: First Round Tiers- College Pitching

This draft is the flip of last year's when college hitting was quite deep and pitching was paper thin.  This year's is quite deep in everything but college hitting with college pitching perhaps the deepest.  Again, we will break down first round talent into 1A(candidate for #1 overall), 1B(top 15) and 1C(Top 37- first round + Competitive Balance).  These are my rankings, not necessarily where I think players will be drafted.

1A:  None.  College hitters Torkelson and Martin have this level locked up.

1B:

Max Meyer RHP
Emerson Hancock RHP
Cole Wilcox RHP
Asa Lacy LHP
Bryse Jarvis RHP
Reid Detmers LHP
Cade Cavalli RHP
Bobby Miller RHP

Garrett Crochet?
JT Ginn?

As you can see, this is a deep group with Crochet and Ginn being wild cards due to injury concerns.  Both are easy 1B talents without the injuries.  Crochet did come back and pitch 3 innings just before the shutdown but shoulder pain is scary and teams will want to thoroughly review the medicals.  Ginn had TJ surgery so there is a reasonable probability he can get back to 100% or more, but it's not a given. I have a feeling he will wind up dropping and staying in school.

Max Meyer does not have classic pitcher's size, but has an ace level fastball and a wipeout slider.  He's the closest thing to an off-the-shelf MLB pitcher in the draft.  I am gradually warming up to Emerson Hancock and if you want a great combination of present stuff plus projectability from a college pitcher he's your guy.  I still think Cole Wilcox has the most awesome pitching frame I have seen in awhile and there is nothing wrong with his 2020 stat line, albeit in a small sample.  I am higher on him than most analysts.  Bryse Jarvis' stock is rising but I think he is still being underrated.  He really took his game to another level this spring and is right behind Meyer in terms of MLB readiness.  Think a more physical version of Aaron Nola.  I am not as high on Detmers as some.  His FB is pedestrian and I am not sure the big, slow Zitoesque curveball plays in the majors.  Cavalli and Miller both have big projectable frames and big fastballs with solid secondary pitches.

As you can see, even if you take Crochet and Ginn off the board, between the 6 college hitters I rated 1B or above and the 8 college pitchers here, the Giants are guaranteed to have a 1B college talent available at #13 if they want that safety in the pick. There are high school talents I might rank ahead of Detmers, Cavalli and Miller and I would personally stay away from Crochet and Ginn.

1C:

Slade Cecconi RHP
Chris McMahon RHP
Tommy Mace RHP
Carmen Mlodzinski RHP
Kyle Nicolas RHP
Jared Shuster LHP
Ian Bedell RHP
Tanner Burns RHP
Cole Henry RHP
Burl Carraway LHP
Franco Aleman RHP(JC)

These are all solid college pitchers who are reasonably safe picks with higher ceilings than what is available from college hitting in this range.  Kyle Nicolas is a physical beast from a smaller program who will need some development.  Ian Bedell's stock seems to be rising but is still underrated in my opinion.  He has a very intriguing mix if secondary pitches and enough fastball to make them play up.  Burl Carraway is a hard throwing LHP who projects as a reliever and has drawn comps to Billy Wagner but fear may be more like Tyler Jay.

So, even if we eliminate Crochet and Ginn from the mix, we have 17 college pitchers and 8 college hitters worthy of first round consideration.  That's 25 out of 37 picks and we haven't even touched the high school class which is also quite deep in both hitting and pitching.  The holy grail here is to identify at least 49 first round talents as the Giants pick at #49 on round 2.  We are well on the way!