Scouting the 2020 Draft: New Rules and New Draft Board

It looks like the MLB draft will not be moved from June 10, but it will be shortened dramatically to just 5 rounds. What's crazy about this is both the MLBPA and MLB front offices wanted 10 rounds but couldn't agree on bonus rules for rounds 6-10 so the commissioner laid down the law and made it five rounds.  Take that!  Bonus pools will be significantly smaller, but slot numbers won't change.  This will reduce negotiating flexibility but I don't expect it to change signability for drafted players much, if at all.  The overall situation may well make them more likely to sign.  I mean, if you are a draft eligible sophomore and you get offered third round slot money, are you really going to turn that down when there is no assurance of a college season at all in 2021?  Same goes for a high school draftees.

The big losers in all of this are the players who were expecting to be drafted in later rounds.  Their maximum bonus is now set at $20, 000.  They have a choice.  Take it or face a very uncertain future in the amateur ranks. At least they may get more of a choice of which team to sign with.  Once again, the MLBPA throws future players under the bus to protect those already in the club.  Look for more amateur players to sign deals outside the U.S.

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Time to put up a new draft board.  Giants draft at #13 and there seems to be a tier break somewhere around #18-20 so will stop there.

DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:

1.  Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).  Top 5-tool college player in the draft.  Power is not elite but makes up for it with other tools and ability to play premium positions.  A bit odd that he's projected to be a SS, but played mostly 3B for Vandy in 2019 and CF in 2020.

2.  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St).  Top bat in the draft with elite power.  Negative is he is likely limited to 1B/DH.  Seems to move OK around the bag, but a very bad looking body.

3.  Nick Gonzalez 2B, College(New Mexico St).  College 2B is generally not a sought after demographic in the draft, but recent successes of Keston Hiura and Nick Madrigal post-draft have it made much less toxic.  Gonzalez is cut along those lines.  Has played college ball in an extreme hitter-friendly environment, but also dominated the Cape Cod League.

4.  Max Meyer RHP, College(Minnesota).  On the small side but brings big time stuff.  One scouting site rated both his FB and slider as tops in college.  If you are looking for an off-the-shelf pitcher who could step in and play at the MLB level immediately, Meyer is the guy you are looking for.

5.  Asa Lacy LHP, College(Texas A&M).  Most boards currently have him as the top college pitcher in the draft and he has great stuff.  Delivery is a bit funky and inconsistent.  Some perceived injury and bullpen risk.

6.  Garrett Mitchell OF, College(UCLA).  Elite tools.  Raw power has yet to play in games.  Some teams may perceive Type 1 Diabetes as a risk.  Review of medicals will be critical.

7.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).  Top pitching projection in the draft.  Ideal size and frame.  Top shelf current stuff with oodles of room to grow.  There is something about his arm action that screams injury risk to me.  Results on field have not matched possibly unrealistic expectations.

8.  Heston Kjerstad OF, College(Arkansas).  If you are impressed by on-field performance, Kjerstad is your guy.  Solid combination of contact, discipline and power.  Came out raking in 2020 before the shutdown. Profiles as a corner bat.

9. Austin Hendrick OF, HS.  Has moved up to top HS prospect in the draft on my board despite issues with his setup and swing.  Bat speed is elite.  Wrists appear incredibly strong and quick on video.  Swing draws comparisons to Cody Bellinger.  Plenty of speed and arm to play RF.  Speed is borderline for CF.  I think this is the guy the Giants are hoping for.

10.  Zac Veen OF, HS.  Tall and angular.  Body comp is Christian Yelich.  Like the younger Yelich, power is more gap than HR but the projection is off the charts.  Close call for top HS hitter between Veen and Hendrick, IMO.

11.  Patrick Bailey C, College(North Carolina St).  Solid defensive catcher with power from both sides of the plate.  Might be a better hitter than Kjerstad or Mitchell above and catchers who can hit lefty are crazy valuable.  I could see FZ being interested despite the presence of Joey Bart in the organization.

12.  Tyler Soderstrom C, HS.  Son of a former Giants first round draft pick.  Seems to be catching some helium as the draft approaches.  HS catcher is considered a high risk demographic, but Soderstrom's switch-hitting bat and athleticism project to other positions.  Again, I could see FZ being tempted if he is on the board at #13.

13.  Jared Kelley RHP, HS.  This is a strong draft for HS hitters and pitchers.  With a projected run on college players in the top 10, the Giants should have a choice among multiple high ceiling HS players.  The frame is not as projectable as a Mick Abel or Nick Blitsko, but Kelley already has MLB strength with elite velocity and the most advanced stuff of any HS pitcher in the draft.  Given the relative weakness of pitching in the Giants farm system, this could work out if Kelley is the best player available at #13.

14.  Mick Abel RHP, HS.  Tall projectable frame.  Reminds me a lot of Michael Kopech.  The ceiling is to dream on, but I see a TJ in his future.

15.  Nick Bitsko RHP, HS.  Big strong frame. Hard thrower.  Reclassified for this draft but that only makes him age appropriate instead of old for the draft. Raw talent but very projectable.

16. Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).  Elite size and frame.  FB tends to be on the straight side and has had command issues.  The ceiling is dreamworthy, though.

17.  Jordan Walker 3B, HS.  IMO, the most physical prospect in the draft.  Power potential is off the charts.  Fast enough to play CF and athletic enough to play SS, although size projects as a corner player.  Reminds me of Jo Adell who turned out to be one of he steals in his draft.

18. Dylan Crews C/OF, HS.  Body type, stance and swing remind of Mike Trout which is undoubtedly in unfair comp.  Stock dropped over the summer of 2019 when he struggled to make contact on the showcase circuit.