Once upon a time, there was a very good power-hitting rightfielder named Vladimir Guerrero. He was a free agent who seemed like a perfect fit for the Giants who were nearing the end of the Barry Bonds era and had not been competitive in RF for several seasons. In his end of the season press conference, Brian Sabean told everybody to calm down and not expect any big free agent signings. The fit seemed so obvious that speculation continued. Fans on message boards wrote long posts with spreadsheets detailing how Vlad would fit into the Giants self-imposed salary cap(There was not "luxury tax" cap back then, but the Giants ownership, while not exactly cheap, was notorious for it's fiscal discipline). There was vague talk of a "rainy day fund" that could be used for a "special" player. I got caught up in that and wrote a few posts of my own. Another fan politely pointed out to me that in his memory, Brian Sabean had never done anything different that what he said he would do. Sure enough, Vlad went to the Angels while the Giants signed Michael Tucker with bonus money saved from a punted first round draft pick. The internet based portion of the fanbase did not react well and Sabes called them the "lunatic fringe." Whooo boy! Those were the days!
14 years and 3 championship seasons later, we find ourselves nearing the end of another era. The Giants need power. They need a rightfielder. Their ownership has lots of money. Giancarlo Stanton appears to be available to any team willing to take on his entire contract. The Giants are rumored to be interested.....except for one small detail. The Giants had another end-of-season press conference. While Bobby Evans is now the GM, Brian Sabean was still on the dais. Guess what they said! The Giants are going after a defensive CF and they prefer the trade market to the free agent market.
14 years after Brian Sabean kept his word to not sign Vlad Guerrero, Giants management still has not ever deviated significantly from what they said they would or would not do at that press conference. I don't know why that would change now. The message was loud and clear:
1. The Giants still think pitching and defense will win games, especially in their ballpark.
2. They are unlikely to go significantly over the "luxury tax" cap despite talk of not letting it get in the way of the "right" player, thus the trade over FA scenario.
3. They are not likely to acquire a corner OF like JD Martinez or Giancarlo Stanton.
4. I don't think they will punt a draft pick again after Larry Baer took pains to point out that the "luxury tax" penalty includes draft pick and international signing penalties which would impact talent acquisition and development.
Much as I would love it if they did, and I am not going to say there is a zero percent chance, I am not holding my breath until the Giants trade for Giancarlo Stanton.
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I think it comes down to what they’d have to give up. If they can just eat the contract and give up a couple minor prospects, they will take Stanton. If he costs Beede, Arroyo, etc, there’s no deal.
ReplyDeleteStanton’s contract won’t look so bad once Harper and Machado sign on the FA market for $40 mil AAV.
I don't think it has anything to do with what players they would have to give up and everything to do with the contract and the "Luxury Tax" cap. I will be surprised if the Giants allow their payroll to go significantly above it.
Delete$32 million (peak contract) is a lot. Especially as the contract goes into his late 30s and not everyone is convinced (based on his injury history and average fielding) that he will age well.
DeleteAnd in the reality of defense is important, I would much rather find someone like Mookie Betts who blends positive offense and positive defense quite well. Marcell Ozuna is another of that kind of player I like. I have major doubts we could pry them away, never mind Stanton who is probably even more valuable as he is a definite ++ on power and adequate on defense even if he's not exactly a 'glove' guy.
The contract goes through 2027 and he's already nearly 28. I'd be willing to bet the last 4-6 years of that contract is downright awful. However, if the Giants win just one championship with him potentially it's probably worth it, so I understand the desire for him and he'd be pretty sweet at AT&T. I'm on the fence whether I'd like to have him with the contract or not, maybe slightly leaning to not. The fact that he's been pretty inconsistent in the past is also worrisome.
DeleteNext year FA Bryce Harper is a close comparison to 1993 Barry Bonds which was a huge contract at the time. Immediate improvement of 31 wins was great, and Barry (for one reason or another) lasted a long time).
ReplyDeleteWill Harper get more than Stanton? $30 million per year (10 years?) is $50,000 per AB based on 600 per year (for 10 years).
Where would the Angels be without Pujols, Trout, and Upton who will be getting collectively $85 million in a couple years? Not in the playoffs just as they are now and have been for the last 8 years except for 1 LDS loss.
Money not well spent!
Without an unlimited budget or a flock of low paid, young producers, paying upwards of $20 mil/year for more than 2 or 3 players is probably a mistake.
ReplyDeleteThree $10-million per year players will likely outproduce one $30-million player.
In 2018 the Giants have 7 players averaging $18.5 million, roughly $130M for this Magnificent 7.
Not sure how much is too much, but with the Giants apparently determined to out of the luxury tax club, this seems top heavy.
They have roughly $70 million for the rest of the 40-man roster. This does not include $32 million more for Bumgarner, Span, and Moore. The top ten will each be paid between $9 & 22 million. Sandoval is not included.
The 10 highest paid players will earn $160 million, not including benefits.
Dyson, Smith, Hundley, and Gearrin will get another $10-12 million collectively if signed.
The 27 remaining players will get less than $30 million, give or take a few million in small change.
If not already bloated, the Giants salary structure is very close.
Don't look for any $10 million signings unless Cueto leaves or Moore is unsigned.