The Giants MLB SP depth chart goes 6 deep with the departure of Matt Cain. From top to bottom, Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Matt Moore, Chris Stratton and Ty Blach make it unlikely that the Giants would feel forced to invest heavily in SP this offseason. Of course, this assumes that Cueto will not opt out of his contract and the Giants will pick up Moore's option. Those are the probabilities. On the other hand, I am sure Cueto's advisors will try to gauge his market and with 30 teams seemingly looking to add pitching this offseason, I don't think it's a given that Cueto won't take his chances on the market.
AAA: Andrew Suarez may have passed Tyler Beede on the depth chart, but I continue to believe Beede has a far higher ceiling. Casey Kelly is trying to revive a career savaged by injuries while Jose Flores is an organizational pitcher who could surprise if he ever gets a shot.
AA: Not much to get excited about at this level. Tyler Herb was in interesting trade acquisition. He may have a chance to be a 5'th starter/long relief man in the future. Cory Taylor was inconsistent. A questioner on Keith Law's Klawchat said Sam Coonrod underwent TJ surgery.
A+: The Giants organizational pitching depth got a nice shot in the arm with the Eduardo Nunez trade. Shaun Anderson pitched well for San Jose and was dominant in his final start in San Bernardino. Garrett Williams seems to have gotten his control/command issues worked out and seems poised to break out next season. Matt Krook showed improvement too, but is not quite as far along on his development. Conner Menez, Grant Watson and Dominic Mazza are low ceiling guys.
Low A: Stephen Woods, Raffi Vizcaino and Melvin Adon are hard throwers who could put it together and move fast. Caleb Baragar is a big lefty who still needs work.
Short Season: Stetson Woods started the summer strong but faded down the stretch. Logan Webb pitched in relief coming off TJ surgery. I think the Giants will move him back to starting in 2018 which is why I'm listing him here.
Rookie AZL: Seth Corry was the Giants 3'rd round draft pitch out of HS, He was dominant at times but other times could not find home plate to save his life. Miguel Figueroa is a DSL graduate who does not strike out enough batters at this level. Jake Greenwalt is a project.
DSL: The big name here is the other pitcher in the Nunez trade, Gregory Santos. He has a chance to be a star, but has a long way to go in developing his talent. Norwith Gudino dominated the DSL, but it was his 3'rd year at the level. Marco Gonzalez has nice size for a LHP.
The additions of Shaun Anderson and Gregory Santos help a lot, this is still a weak group in need of a serious talent infusion.
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Moore's option was picked up, it seems.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.knbr.com/2017/09/16/matt-moore-on-giants-decision-to-pick-up-2018-option-it-definitely-did-take-me-by-surprise/
That is an old story about a Bobby Evans quote at the end of the season. I do think the Giants will pick up Moore's option, but I don't think they have actually done it yet.
DeleteWhich brings up a question: If the Giants don't pick it up after Evans publicly said they would, could Moore sue for breach of contract based on the verbal commitment?
DeleteCan anyone imagine the Giants reneging? Is there a precedent? What would a GM's word mean after that?
DeleteUnless Moore had a terrible accident, the Giants couldn't do that -- assuming that Evans did say it. Seems that he did.
If the WS ends Sunday (LOL-Astros win!), Cueto must opt-out by Wednesday (3 days). At worst, it's a week from today.
Does anyone think that he will opt out?
How many wins above replacement is $22 million? Would a WAR of 4-5 justify 22 mil? Only 13 SPs had WAR exceeding 4.0 this year, Cueto's 1.6 tied him for 48th. Considering that his blister and forearm cost him about a third more IPs, scaling up gives him a 2.4 and a tie with Jake Arrieta at 36th.
Arrieta is a FA, will he get $22M/year (average). I'd guess yes and he had a down year like Cueto and is the same age.
Maybe his contract isn't so bad -- if he's healthy?
Merely a broken promise -- no contract was created when Evans made his comment.
DeleteElements of a Contract. The requisite elements that must be established to demonstrate the formation of a legally binding contract are (1) offer; (2) acceptance; (3) consideration; (4) mutuality of obligation; (5) competency and capacity; and, in certain circumstances, (6) a written instrument.
Therefore no breach.
On a separate note - with all the WS focus on curveballs (McCullers, Kershaw, Rich Hill etc) it sure places SFG starter Stratton's curve in a new light. When I heard that McCullers ended his Yankee game with 24 straight curveballs the first thing I thought of was Stratton.
Merely a broken promise?
DeleteIn law maybe, but among men?
Your word is your bond.
You are the summer associate for a law firm specializing in contract matters. Review the enclosed case materials and prepare a memorandum of law addressed to the Senior Partner setting forth the rights and obligations of the respective parties? ,,, Evans' comment is "not actionable" .. and Moore cannot claim detrimental reliance to create an "implied contract" ... yet, aside for the legal issues that arise, were Evans to renege who would listen to him? Fellow GM's? Players? Media, fans? He would have no place to hide and would lose all credibility. Thus Evans is bound by his gratuitous oral promise that is otherwise unenforceable.
DeleteThere is almost no reason beyond a medical condition we are not aware of, and I would imagine that would bring a lawsuit if so, that Moore does not have his option picked up. Especially since his contract is essentially for 1.0 WAR production for the season.
DeleteThe $/WAR for last season was around $7-8M last season, from what I remember, so it is $8-9M for 2018, or roughly Moore's option salary.
Cueto's contract thus is valuing him at around 3 WAR for 2018, so it would be a gamble for any team to take him on after this up and down season. And it was not just blisters, but he was battling some other injury too, one that has recurred in the past (if I recall right), and he's at the age when pitchers start to regress. He's not going to get a 4 year contract at $21M per, especially from saber teams, as sabers generally take the WAR production and regresses it downward going forward for contracts signed by 30+ year olds. So even if they start with 2.4 WAR in 2018 (and most would drop by 0.5 WAR), the contract would be pretty bad by year 3.
Well put on Cueto OGC. While starting pitching is, as always, at a premium, I can't think of any rational argument for him to opt out.
DeleteIf he'd hit some WAR level this year (gotta figure at least 4-5) then an opt out might play. But even then, it would be a bit risky.
Although Johnny Cueto is full of surprises, snubbing nearly 88 million at 32 yo (next season) would be beyond a surprise.
ReplyDeleteHe gets 5 mil for the snub, so it's "only" almost 83.
He would be betting the blister!
That said, these guys believe in themselves.
No mention of Gregorio?
ReplyDeleteHe's been pounded in AFL, maybe the long layoff didn't help him. This might get him ready for ST.
DeleteNo mention of Jason Bahr, who had solid numbers as a starter for Salem in his first professional season.
ReplyDeleteBeede was delayed in his Arizona Fall League debut this past Tuesday and allowed five runs in two innings for the Scottsdale Scorpions.
ReplyDelete