Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Scouting the Offseason: More Numbers

MLBTR has released their annual Arbitration Projections which are generally accurate.  Here is a list of Giants arbitration eligible players with their projected arbitration salary:

Will Smith LHP- $2.5 M

Cory Gearrin RHP- $1.6 M

Sam Dyson RHP- $4.6 M

Joe Panik 2B- $3.5 M

Tim Federowicz C- $1.3 M

Hunter Strickland RHP- $1.7 M

Total- $15.2 M


-Smith, Gearrin, Panik and Strickland are no-brainers.

-Much as I am a Fedex fan, I don't think the Giants want to pay him $1.3 M.  Non-tender.

-I'm on the fence with Dyson.   I mean, he was OK as long as the Rangers were paying most of his salary, but $4.6 M?  Isn't that a bit rich for what he gives them?  Those last 2 Blown Saves were not what you want to see from a guy you are going to entrust the setup and backup Closer roles to.  On the other hand, who do they put in that role?

-Should the Giants go 1 year at a time with Panik or try for a long term team-friendly deal in exchange for security?


  1. With Panik I would trade him to find the center fielder.

    Dyson I don't have a problem with the 4.6M, outside of the last two outings he was solid for the Giants and we have no idea what we're getting from Mark Melancon.

  2. Man, Sam Dyson is going to be a tough decision. Those two blown saves were a confidence crusher as far as I'm concerned and I was just about all in before those outings. Will Smith will be coming off TJ and Melancon will also be recovering from a procedure. Talk about question marks!

  3. Panik: Signing Panik for that money is a no-brainer. Panik is not a premium second baseman like a Brian Dozier or DJ LeMahieu But he is good, and probably better than half of them out there. As for extending him long-term... He needs to get his defense back to 2016 before the Giants go long-term. He was not anywhere near his 2016 GG campaign.

    Dyson: 4.03 ERA. 4.08 FIP. Add in a 6.4 K/9 with a 4.3/9 BB... I wouldn't be upset if they did. But I'm thinking no.

    Smith, Gearrin & Strickland: Absolutely.

    FedEx: I'd rather have Hundley.

  4. If we only have 15mm before you get to the next level of MLB penalty issues, I think we have to make tough roll the dice issues. Looking at the pen, you have Smith coming back and Crick playing well. Combined with Hunter, Gearrin and Melancon, that gives you 5 with only one lefty. Have to assume they give Okert the shot give how well he played down the stretch. So that is 6. Doesn't include Law, Moronta or Stratton. I think you let Dyson go and save the money.

    As for Panik, I'd do a 3 year deal to make it team friendly. We don't have anyone coming up who can field the position and Kelby/Gomez need to be the super subs. Trading seems like trading for trades purposes; you get rid of one problem and inherit another.

  5. They should sign Panik for that money. Dyson should be signed since it seems like relievers like him who can save games are valuable, and potential trade chips. Who knows if Melancon can come all the way back as well.


  6. Dyson was OK. But that's it. He definitely didn't return to 2015-2016 form. Considering payroll, the Giants have to get that kind of production (4.00ish ERA, 108 ERA+) at a discount. $4.6 million is paying for pre-2017 production.

    Do teams re-sign non-tenders? Dyson is a lot more attractive at around $2-2.5 million.