OK, enough of leaning on the Top 50 Prospects and fantasy baseball for material. Let's start talking some real Giants baseball! There aren't actually a lot of question marks for the Giants heading into Spring Training, but let's see if we can dredge up a few just for something to talk about:
1. Is Matt Cain's arm healthy? This might be the single biggest and most important question to answer in spring training. Matt Cain does not have to be healthy for the Giants to be good this year, but if he is…..oh baby! I don't care too much about Matt Cain's spring stat line unless it's something truly horrific like an ERA north of 5 with a low K and high BB rate. Anything better than that and the most important stat is whether he makes all his scheduled starts and makes his scheduled number of pitches in each one. He does that, and the Giants are gonna be alright this year.
2. Who wins the Starting LF job this spring? The assumption going in is Angel Pagan, and it probably will be. I'm just not completely convinced that Pagan is any better in LF than CF and I'm even less convinced that he is really willing to play the position. I could see this going very badly and right out of the gate. The question is, if it goes badly, how long before the Giants pull the plug, because Denard Span IS the CF and leadoff batter.
3. Who wins the positional bench spots? The standard NL bench is 5 players: 2 OF's, 2 IF's and a Catcher. The guys who seem to have the best shot going in are Gregor Blanco, Andrew Susac, Kelby Tomlinson, Ehire Adrianza and Jarrett Parker. That bench leaves some holes: No back up first baseman other than Buster Posey. No backup 3B unless Tomlinson or Adrianza take quite a few reps there in the spring. There are a few contenders coming to camp too: George Kottaras at catcher and Kyle Blanks at 1B and OF. That still leaves no backup at 3B. So, there is some stuff to sort out.
4. Assuming the Starting Rotation of Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija, Peavy and Cain all stay healthy, do the Giants use their last bullpen slot to turn Chris Heston into a swingman or can someone like a Clayton Blackburn come in and win that role? Most likely it will be Heston unless he is terrible in spring training, which could happen.
What burning question do you have about the Giants Spring Training?
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Not a burning question but a prediction, that Blanks will make the team as backup in the OF and 1B, and as a RH pinch hitter, and that Conor Gillaspie will be the LH pinch hitter and backup at 3B, along with Tomlinson and Blanco. That gives every position an experienced substitute, and a reasonably capable PH will be available of the desired handedness. Parker, in this prediction, will be returned to the minors to see if he can learn to maintain his power while cutting down on his egregious K percentage; and if he's at all successful, will reappear in San Francisco as soon as Pagan goes on the DL.
ReplyDeleteI could see Gillaspie and Blanks making the team. As for Parker, I think he is who he is. More time at AAA is not going to change that, but that does not mean he doesn't get sent down due to having options(I think he has options left).
DeleteThese are great questions! Cain returning could make a good team great. I like your view of what he needs to do. I would add Samardzija to that question. If one of those two can join Bumgarner and Cueto as aces, we will have a killer rotation.
ReplyDeleteGood point about Pagan. He is kind of stuck unless he plans on retiring to his mountain bike, like that lazy Rowand. But I think he wants another big contract, he has that fire. Plus, I like having Blanco and Blanks in reserve, the Giants DFAed Rowand with more money, so Pagan is gone if he doesn't play nice.
And that brings me to Blanks as the fifth OF. His stats have actually been good, much like Blanco before Giants, ok offense and defense, his problem has been staying healthy. FYI, Giants are actually listing him as 1B, so it looks like he will get reps there in spring.
As far as MI goes, I see people doubt Adrianza, but I would say that Tomlinson is as much on the hot seat as well, because a high BABIP helped him a lot. And the guys the Giants have picked up are more like him, the bat is what carries them, the defense is ok at best. I see the bench as Susac, Tomlinson, Adrianza, Blanco, and Blanks. Adrianza is good defensively at SS, so I assume he would be ok at 3B. I think they like having some defense on the bench.
Yeah, I see battle between Heston and Blackburn. But if Lincecum does not get a promised MLB role with another team, i.e. all minor league deals, I can see the Giants guarantee him the long relief super utility role and sign him.
Burning question for me, I guess, is about their health. They had a good team derailed by injury last season. I think they have an even better team this year, but will the overall health hold up?
Time to wake up and smell the coffee, ogc. Timmy is done. The Giants have all but said he is not going to be back and certainly not in any guaranteed role.
DeleteOGC brings up a point about Lincecum I was going to raise as well. I don't think he'll be back, but on the other hand I hold up some hope (dream is a more appropriate word, probable) that he returns to "good" with the Giants, and wouldn't be surprised if he were back in some minor league or 6th man capacity beacuse of everyone the Giants have brought back before, from Gillaspie, to Ishikawa, to Vogelsong, to Torres, etc.
DeleteBut the actual point I was going to raise: as long as Lincecum is out there and available, it will be a burning question. Haft was just the most recent beat to try and shut down the idea in his mailbag. And then DrB v OGC. So burning question; albeit much more about remembering the past and dreams of the future, rather than what this season's success is hinged upon.
Well, I guess it's a burning question in some people's minds, but is it really a question if it's already been decided?
DeleteEvans just said that he doesn't see Timmy coming back, that's not shutting the door, though the door is pretty much shut. That's why I made the condition of his return so specific, that if he gets only minor league offers from other teams, the Giants could end up with him maybe. We'll see.
DeleteWell, I guess you never say never and never say always, especially in baseball, but Timmy is not coming back, at least not this season.
DeleteI'm not sure why anybody thinks it would be a good idea to bring Timmy back in any role, even on a minor league deal. There is a minuscule chance he could come in throwing 94 MPH with great command, take over a starting slot from an injured pitcher and win his 3'rd Cy Young. There is almost infinitely greater chance that he struggles and eventually forces the Giants to make a very painful decision to either send him to the minors or release him, creating a whole lot of unnecessary distraction. Why would they put themselves in that position?
DeleteAnd while he struggles, be forced to use him repeatedly, so as to "give him a fair chance to prove himself" for sentimental, PR reasons. Both roster decisions and in-game decisions risk being warped.
DeleteWell stated position DrB. Full of logic AND concern for the emotions of fans, players, and management. Doesn't mean we still won't see the question asked and (re)answered dozens of more times.
DeleteThey may already have that situation coming with Cain (again) if he doesn't rebound and Pagan if he can't stay healthy. They're not going to bet on three fan favorites making surprising comebacks. Especially not when they have so much talent already.
DeleteOne burning question is how Posey will work with Cueto. Without Sanchez as a personal catcher option, and learning Cueto's effectiveness is partially tied to who he throws to, there's a lot riding on that relationship. Cueto is so idiosyncratic, it effects the entire infield, especially if he's giving the quick pitch or the wiggle (which I have a feeling he'll stop doing under the Giants).
ReplyDeleteWhat we've seen is Posey hands off catching duties when pitchers starting acting unpredictable. But unpredictable is part of Cueto's game. Cueto also seems to need a rock solid target where Posey is known to play around within the course of a game, no matter who is throwing to him. I'm excited to see how that plays out, but it's a question.
Eh, you need a backup catcher for about every 5'th game anyway. They usually pair up the back up catcher with one pitcher for continuity sake. If that pitcher is Cueto, they will find somebody he can work with. I wouldn't be shocked if that's why they brought in Kottaras and Olivo as backup options.
DeleteOf course, but we're talking about a potential staff co-ace, or #2, on a long term contract, and Posey's framing benefits. It's just interesting, and we'll know pretty quick if it's a non-issue.
DeleteGood point about Kottaras, or Olivo, if they have room for them. I could see Trevor Brown doing better than Susac at handling some Cueto, and Peavy's starts too.
I am not sure why Buster would have a problem with the Shoulder Shimmy or quick pitches. I've Seen Santiago Casilla quick pitch with Buster behind the plate. Heck, I'd think Buster would be pushing him to do it. Also, Cueto's problem with Sal Perez was Perez was not getting his glove low enough. It seems to me Buster generally sets up very low, so I doubt it's a problem.
DeleteA question for me is can Josh Osich be the guy to take Jeremy Affeldt's spot in the pen? Affeldt could get RH and LH hitters out, pitch multiple innings in save situations.
ReplyDeleteLG
Osich showed last year he could get hitters from both sides of the plate out and he showed he could pitch multiple innings. As for Save situations, I don't recall Affeldt pitching in too many of those.
DeleteI'm not too worried about Osich. He was prepped for this role coming up the farm system, had been a very successful closer for us in the minors, getting both RHH as well as LHH out pretty easily.
DeleteAgree Osich did a good job. Hoping that he'll be one of the pitchers that Bochy will have confidence in to hold a lead in the 7th or 8th inning for the entire season like Affeldt was.
DeleteLG
After watching Timmy pitch in Fresno and SF and bring our first WS in a long long time, it is going to be a particularly sad spring training without him, but as you've said, it's time to move on and wish him the best.
ReplyDeleteThanks DrB for all your daily articles during the dark season. They keep the Giants on my mind everyday and get to learn about all the minor league players that I don't get a chance to follow. Keep up the great work it is appreciated!
Isn't there a 40-man roster problem that would impact Blanks, Gillespie, and a backup catcher not named Susac or Brown? Don't the Giants "love" everyone that has a slot and wouldn't they worry excessively about someone being nabbed if they have to dfa a guy from the 40-man roster? Who would go, any ideas, to make room for Blanks (most likely guy probably because he plays 1B and OF and bats RH with some pop)?
ReplyDeleteMaybe Brown could take reps at 1st and 3rd, he has played some IF and must have an arm.
Blanks is on the 40 man. Plus there's some dumpster dives, and dead weight, 6 backup catchers, and a stack of arms that are unlikely to see immediate playing time.
DeleteThis is a good question anon. Here's another question: Where the HECK did Brown come from, and why does he have to be on the 40-man roster presently? Send like I hadn't heard of that kid at either AA or AAA before he was shipped up to the majors. What's that kid's story, and what's the rule for guys getting taken on and off of the 40-man?
DeleteAn additional thought: I have a feeling the Giants would be fairly comfortable with Tomlinson in the SS reserve roll on the bench, given his calm, Duffy-like demeanor and fantastic work ethic (plus the rarely acknowledged time he spent at Short in the minors, with accolades). With that said, the Giants have recently been in talks with Juan Uribe who was solid in a starting roll last year & as recently as 2013-2014 was averaging over 4 WAR per year.
DeleteDoc points out above that the Giants are bereft of a player to handle 3B and 1B as their natural infield position, which Juan can do very capably. Uribe proved out as a tremendous bat off the bench, both in a starting and PH roll with the G's back in the early years & I have a feeling that if the two sides can find a good price point, it's as good a match as is out there + Uribe is a fantastic clubhouse guy. Maybe all of that is just a long way of saying, "I really loved having Juan on the team and I'd be thrilled to see him back in the black & orange!"
Another "Real Question" is, who of the minor leaguers do the Giants truly feel are ready to step up into a big time shut-down roll on the ML team out of the gate. Law would be my pick, but he needs another 1/2 season to prove out, and I don't know if Black has the control & secondary pitch to succeed in high leverage situations against very good hitters. Jake Smith? Ian Gardeck?
Blanks is on a minor league deal with a spring training invitation. He's not on the 40 man roster.
DeleteBurning question: can Strickland secure the closer role and start a youth movement in the pen?
ReplyDeleteMore important question, when he does, can we call it the Strickninth inning? He'll be killing the opponents chances, right?
Strickland may well the closer by the end of the season, but $6.5 M says the job is not open for competition in Spring Training as long as Santiago Casilla is healthy.
DeleteDon't see Blanks on Baseball Reference or MLB's Giants 40-man roster, so they must be wrong. MLB has a ** for Blanks that says "not on 40-man roster." If he is, that would make him more certain to make the team, at least for the short run. Maybe there's a secret list.
ReplyDeleteG's had to dfa Cody Hall and Joe Biagini and they both got picked up (or traded for) so SF thinks the stack of arms are better than those 2.
Cain: I hope, but don't expect. I think it's 60/40 Heston (or possibly Blackburn) ends up as the starter by the All-Star break.
ReplyDeleteLF: Blanco unless he starts the season in a slump.
Bench: Gillespie (3B, 1B), Tomlinson (2B, SS), Susac (C), Blanco (or Pagan), Parker.
Pitching: If Samardzija and Cueto only pitch as well as they did last year, it's still a 10 game Quality Start upgrade over the men they replaced. If Cain turns into 'merely mediocre' instead of 'being really awful' that could improve QS by another 5. If Heston fails as a swingman or Cain just can't do it, Blackburn comes up early. Otherwise Blackburn'll be on the 40-man and will get a few starts to get his feet wet.
People are sleeping on Tomlinsons ability to play short and third. He played 95% of his career 1st SS. It will be his bat that will make it break him. His D is better than advertised.
ReplyDelete