I'm on holiday today and I don't do the shopping thing, so fire away. I'll try to answer questions about anything related to the Giants or baseball in general. I'll check in frequently to write up answers.
Dr B
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Hey Doc, I know it's rather impossible to predict such things, but it's the offseason... and that's what we do! So, just curious to hear what your gut tells you about the Giants and their offseason free agency dealings. Do you think we'll see two aces at the top of the rotation next spring?
ReplyDeleteHappy Holidays!
Cove Chatter
I think the Giants will take their shot at a Price/Greinke. I am getting the feeling they are actually more interested in Price. I'll put the odds that they sign one or the other at 50/50.
DeleteI think the Giants are going to have to decide how bad they want one of these pitchers and how much they are willing to spend. All it takes is for one team to shoot the moon and offer something way above consensus estimates. Rumors are that Boston, for one, is willing to do just that. The Giants have to decide if they are willing to be that team or not. Personally, I would be OK if they said no and just went with Leake and some third tier guy who does not cost a draft pick.
DeleteSince teams are asking about them, if you HAD to trade one, would you trade Joe Panik or Matt Duffy?
ReplyDeleteThat one is actually pretty easy. I would trade Panik.
Delete1. I don't completely trust the back.
2. Tomlinson is not a terrible backup and there are other 2B options in the system.
3. Nothing in the system at 3B with experience above low A
I agree. It seems that back injuries linger over a players career. Chances are it will come back.
DeleteAre the Giants eligible to re-sign any of the players they left off the 40 man roster (ie, Agosta, Delfino, Turner, etc.) once the Rule 5 Draft is completed? Were there any players they protected that you would have traded out for someone else?
ReplyDeleteThe Giants still own the rights to those players. The only way they lose them is if they get taken by another team in the Rule 5 draft. I'm more concerned about who they might have to drop off the 40 man and clear waivers if they sign a FA or 2. Some have suggested they might not tender contracts to arbitration-eligible Yusmeiro Petit and Hector Sanchez.
DeleteI think it is a better strategy to not protect a player and risk losing him to rule V draft, then to have risk removing him off the 40 man in the future when you need the roster, due to injuries, etc. Take Jake Smith. There is a reasonable chance that he is selected in the rule V draft, but the drafting team would need to keep him on the 25 man for the entire year. The drafting team cannot option him to the minors, he must be offered back to the Giants. Should the Giants need a roster spot in the coming season, a very likely scenario given the unbalanced nature of the roster at the moment, if the Giants have to waive him, the claiming team can claim him, and option him to their minor league. The Giants would not be able to get him back.
DeleteA question: If the Giants need to open up a few roster spots in the next few months, who would you let go? I can see the Giants needing at least three, possible five spots.
Well, Petit's and The Hector's estimated arbitration values are a bit rich for what you are getting, so they could be non-tendered. Beyond that, I would say Ty Blach, Mike Broadway and Cory Gearrin would be on my bubble.
DeleteThat's one thing I don't understand that perhaps DrB can answer: I've seen in the Rule 5 draft that there are AAA and lower minors Rule 5 Drafts where the players is just lost, without worry about having to offer anything back to the losing team. How does that work? Is that a reason why the Giants had to put them on the 40-man? Anything else interesting?
DeleteI agree with DrB about the possible drops where it won't hurt so much and are on the bubble. Smith would not be that close to the edge unless there are wholesale changes. And I still think the Giants are trying to set up a trade of quantity to open up space on the 40-man and upgrade somewhere. If I were to guess, I think a package including Petit, Kontos, as well some of the names that DrB noted as bubble players, plus a bigger prospect, who I would guess is Mejia and/or Crick.
The number of protected players goes up for each minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. I'm not sure what the number is, but 80 for the AAA phase and 120 for the AA phase come immediately to mind.
DeleteJust looked it up. Teams can protect an additional 38 players in the AAA phase or 78 total and an additional 37 in the AA phase or 115 total.
DeleteIs Brandon Belt a pre-season trade chip? Given his injury history (has he played 150 plus games in a year yet) and his lack of a breakout season (20 plus HRs and 90 plus RBIs)--- do you sell "high" now or do you see an obvious upside worth holding on to him? What would Belt bring in a trade now? thanks
ReplyDeleteThe problem with trading Belt is there is no obvious replacement unless they make the decision to move Buster Posey there full time now. At this time, I see no indication that the Giants are ready to do that, so I do not expect to see a Belt trade this offseason.
DeleteThe problem with trading Belt is also that in spite of all the negatives people pile on him, he has averaged roughly 3-4 WAR per seasonal rate (150 games/650 PA, roughly), and even with missing significant time the past two seasons, has average almost 3 WAR per season in the last 4 seasons, and 2.4 WAR the past two seasons.
DeleteHis finger breaking from HBP are things you can attribute to him, but Scutaro throwing a ball at his head and getting kneed in the head are injuries that I would consider to be flukes. His multiple concussions is another worry, but the official team statement on that (given HIPAA rules, they can only share if he permits) is that there is no worry about his future with regards to them.
Given that his value has been hurt by not being on the field, I would consider him being sold low on. In 2013 and 2015, playing most of the seasons, he averaged 4 WAR. And his production was hurt by him coming back when he was still suffering from concussion effects, and thus performed poorly. I just don't see the Giants trading him for the above reasons as well as DrB's very good point that there are no obvious replacements in the system (though I would note that they could trade for one, or even get one back in exchange in a trade of Belt).
I'll address your homerun qualification:
DeleteAll Giants hitters suffer at ATT. Posey hit 6 of his 19 HRs at ATT. Crawford hit 6 of his 21 HRs at ATT. Pence hit 3 of his 9 HRs at ATT. Belt hit 5 of his 18 HRs at ATT. In fact only Duffy hit more HRs at home than on the road -- 7 at home, 5 road and that's probably a fluke.
If SF was a neutral park and they hit HRs as their Home run %'s on the road (HR/AB) and project out quite well in 600ABs:
Pence -- 5.7% -- 35 HR in 600ABs
Belt -- 5.2% -- 31 HR in 600ABs
Crawford -- 4.6% -- 28 HR in 600ABs
Posey -- 4.4% -- 26 HR in 600ABs
Those are solid numbers. At home, the numbers are bad. But the numbers are bad for everyone and you're just not going to see many batters hit better at ATT than on the road, though sometimes it'll happen because that's the nature of baseball. (Like Duffy did this year.)
Anyway, my point is that if you're going to use generic standards for 'break-out,' you need to understand the conditions in which the players hit really does matter. ATT is a large park, but more important it's a COLD park. Cold air is dense. The same exact ball hit in Boston at 95 degrees will travel 8 feet less in SF at 75 degrees. Eight feet is the difference in a lot warning-track flyballs hit for outs in SF.
So, put these men at neutral parks and they're all likely 25-35 HR guys. And Belt is that kind of guy. Every year he consistently hits far more HRs on the road than at ATT. And it's not his fault. It's the park. Further if you trade him to bring in some power guy, you'll likely see his HR production drop and you'll be in the same exact position you are now.
Thanks for the analysis MoseZD. Shame on me for forgetting that! I would also add that the right field configuration also especially hurts LHH like Belt and Crawford, only Bonds appears able to not be affected negatively by the RF wall being the way it is, in addition to the cold air.
DeleteBut I'm not against trading Belt if he nets us a great pitcher, if the other team is willing to overpay to get Belt, I'm willing to listen. But I think most trade offers for Belt will result in us selling low. And I like Belt, and would rather keep him and see him blossom with us rather than another team, I still think he can have a Votto-lite type of season.
I've read reports that the Giants will make a pitch for John Lackey. Would you be happy if they signed him? I'd have my concerns.
ReplyDeleteLG
I hope the Lackey rumors are just idle Hot Stove talk or routing tire kicking. Although I respect his toughness as a competitor, Lackey is not the type of player that makes you proud to be a fan. Seems like he'd be a better fit for the Dodgers.
DeleteIf the Giants did sign him, I would hope they would do some background work and make sure some of the attitudes he has displayed in the past have been amended.
DeleteBlue Jays sign J.A. Happ to 3 years $36MM. That sounds like a low risk high reward signing the Giants would possibly do.
ReplyDeleteHapp is a guy who I like a lot. One of the few pitchers who has gained velocity as he gets older although that has not always translated into successful outcomes.
DeleteHe's kind of close to what Leake has produced, roughly about the same, though perhaps a little lower, and, of course, 5 years older. Seems to support a 5 year deal for Leake, and around $14-15M AAV (vs. $12M for Happ), perhaps even a sixth year, what do you think DrB?
DeleteI do not think Happ and Leake are particularly comparable pitchers and would not use Happ's contract as any kind of benchmark for what Leake would get.
DeleteWell, what I mean by close is that Happ has a 4.13 career ERA vs. Leake's 3.88 career ERA, which I believe that teams look at closely. Also, Happ 2.15 K/BB vs. Leake's 2.65 K/BB, he's like in the next tier below Leake.
DeleteSo you are saying that Happ's contract has no bearing on Leake's circumstance, OK, I'll wait for another signing for a setting of the market for Leake. In any case, based on the estimates I've seen regarding Leake, $14-15M AAV is the low end, $18M AAV is the high end.
I would not call those two career ERA's particularly close nor would I say that about the K/BB's. And no, I do not think Happ's contract sets anybody else's market.
DeleteDr. B,
ReplyDeleteWhat would you do about CF? I looked up Fowler's stats and he doesn't appear to be any great shakes as a defender either. Personally, I hope the Giants do something because another year of watching Pagan stumble around in the outfield is not a happy prospect.
On another matter, are you concerned about Evans' ability to get results? I know he says the right things but, including last year, the results to date have been modest at best. Larry Kruger on KNBR last year summed up Evans' performance as like parents implying to their children that they are going shopping for a Porsche (I.e. Lester et al) only to return with a Pinto (Peavy and Vogelsong).
I love your blog and especially appreciate your minor league insights. Like you, back in the stone age, I used to subscribe to the Sporting News because of the minor league stats. Thank goodness our farm system is so much better now than then when our hopes rode with the likes of Gary Alexander and Frank Ricelli.
Austin Jackson is a terrific defender in CF who should be affordable. I think this is an important offseason for Evans. I wish he had not made a comment like their goal is to have a better rotation than the Dodgers, which taken out of context leaves a lot of room for misinterpretation and possibly unrealistic expectations.
Delete