Jerry DiPoto, the new GM of the Mariners, wasted no time in firing up his hot stove. He packaged 3 guys, SS Brad Miller, 1B Logan Morrison and RHP Danny Farquar, who clearly did not figure into his future plans and shopped them to the Rays for RHP Nate Karns, LHP CJ Riefenhauser, and Prospect OF "Boog" Powell. I'm not going to spend a lot of time on the 3 guys going to Tampa Bay. Miller may fill their SS hole, but he's a guy whose stat line always seems to look better than he does in person. I think we all feel about the same on Morrison. Hate the guy, both on and off the field. Farquar is a middle reliever coming off a terrible season.
Karns is obviously the centerpiece for the Mariners. He's coming off a successful rookie campaign so is cost controlled for 5 more seasons. He looks like a solid back-end starter. The key is whether he can stay healthy. He missed some time with the dreaded forearm tightness last year.
Riefenhauser is a lefty reliever who has less than 20 MLB innings under his belt. His minor league numbers look good. He has struggled in the majors, but pitched more like his minor league numbers in Sept 2015. You all know how I feel about lefty relievers. I definitely see why DiPoto wanted him.
Powell is being dismissed by Dave Cameron and the Fangraphs crowd, but he has very Giantsy minor league K and BB ratios. I like Cameron's comp of Gregor Blanco. I think Dave forgot that Blanco has averaged 3.1 fWAR/600 PA's over the past 4 seasons. Another comp would be a faster version of Joe Panik. The key is if Powell can D it up in CF. If he can, I can see him having a solid career there.
Overall, I like this deal for DiPoto and the Mariners. I am not sure why DiPoto has had so much trouble hanging onto his GM gigs. He always seems to make solid trades and other acquisitions, then just as his teams look like they are about to break through, boom, he's the odd man out in a regime change or something. His last gig was with the Angels where he lost a power struggle with Mike Scioscia. My take on that is when was the last time Scioscia accomplished anything? Seems like he's still riding his own coattails from 2002.
*********************************************************************************
OK, as we have commented on several times already, there seems to be a harmonic convergence of of the stars for the Giants to make a huge run at Zack Greinke. He, along with David Price, is one of the two premier free agent pitchers on the market after he opted out of his Dodgers contract. The Giants have almost a desperate need to seriously upgrade their starting pitching. The Giants also have stockpiled a very large war chest of available payroll. The Dodgers are rumored to be seriously considering going young and cutting payroll. If the Giants signed Zack Greinke, they would not only be gaining him, but taking him away from the Dodgers. How sweet would that be?
So, let's do a little armchair GM'ing here. Using rough numbers, we'll assume the Giants have $45 M in payroll space for next season. They do not have a large burden of long term future commitments thanks mainly to a very team friendly contract with Bumgarner. Here's the question: Taking all that into consideration, 1. Do you make a serious run at Zack Greinke and 2. What is your final offer to him, the one you back away from the table on if he turns it down? How would it be structured?
*********************************************************************************
Addendum: A couple of things for additional consideration:
1. There is a new CBA coming up which will likely raise the Luxury Tax threshold.
2. I am pretty sure deferred payments on contracts are paid as AAV during the time the player is obligated to play, not when the payments are made.
3. The Giants mortgage on AT&T Park will be paid off after 2017.
4. The property development project that just go voter approval will likely bring a financial windfall starting in about 5 years.
Man, are the Giants in the catbird's seat for the future or what? It seems like the only barrier between them and signing Zack Greinke is whether they want him and if they do, how much are they willing to pay? There is almost no limit to what they CAN pay!
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1. Yes, of course you do. He looks like a 32-year-old who will stand up to a 5-year deal. You either want to have him at market or make sure the Dodgers pay market or above.
ReplyDelete2. 5/150. But leave it on the table only long enough to find out if he will take it, while pursuing other negotiations. No Lesteresque extended pining.
I think 6/170 is what he will want and that is the most the Giants should pay. How great would it be if the Giants signed Greinke, and Price and Zimmermann went to other teams? That would be a dream come true. The Doyers would have Kershaw and a bunch of 3rd tier guys. Who knows how Ryu will come back from injury.
ReplyDeleteI know 170 seems like a lot but the extra money is just to weaken the Dodgers which is huge. You don't see very strong SP Free Agent classes like this and if the Dodgers lose out to the Giants, Cubs, etc. it will be hard for them to find a good SP without a major trade.
I'm not great with projected contracts, so I'll defer to MLBTR and their expert analysis. They project Greinke at 6-156, which is a $26M AAV. I also dug up the reported offer the G's made to Lester last year, which was 7-166, a $23M+ AAV. I think I'd make him an initial offer of 5-140, and if he balked, the final offer would be in the neighborhood of that predicted 6-156.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, I'd love to bring Greinke's talents to AT&T (though I'm not sure what the comments from Bobby Evans were all about a couple days ago... comparing Greinke's resume to Kershaw's. Anybody else catch that?)
Cove Chatter
No, what did Evans say re Greinke vs Kershaw?
DeleteBasically he just said that Kershaw is younger and has more Cy Young awards to his name. I think this might be a tactic to downplay their interest.
Delete"But that's a tall order, that's a huge price to pay. He's certainly older than Kershaw was, and has a few less Cy Youngs that Kershaw did." - Bobby Evans: http://www.csnbayarea.com/giants/giants-gm-evans-200-million-greinke-tall-order
DeleteJust very interesting comments to make publicly about a player you're supposedly interested in... players read what is said about them, and Greinke is known to be a chip on his shoulder type of guy. I just hope something little like that doesn't send the wrong message to him & his agent.
Cove Chatter
Is Greinke the number one pitcher in your eyes?
ReplyDelete5 year deal for Price - Ages 30-34, career 29.2 WAR thus far
5 year deal for Greinke - Ages 32-36, career 48.6 WAR, but 13.6 over last 2 years, so 35 WAR at same point in career as Price.
Price will get either 7 or 8 years vs 5 or 6 with Greinke. Price will be over $210MM easily while Greinke with probably be under $175MM. Greinke is more realistic to the Giants plans. Price would be a huge shock if they landed him.
DeleteI think it is a tossup between Price and Greinke. Greinke's numbers over the past 3 season are better, but Price was pitching in a tougher league and tougher ballparks. Price is bigger, throws harder and is younger. You have to think Price will cost more than Greinke. One advantage to signing Price is they would not lose a first round draft pick. The advantage with Greinke is they the double beatdown it lays on the Dodgers.
DeleteIf we take Grienke, who would be our second FA pitcher? Anyone? Rely on Heston and/or Blackburn? It'd be nice to get Grienke, but I kind of like what MLB trade rumors has going on for the Giants: Jeff Samardzija – Giants. Five years, $80MM & Mike Leake – Giants. Five years, $80MM.
ReplyDeleteThat's $32 million a year. Which, depending on what the Giants decide is their payroll budget, could leave anywhere from $10 to $20 million to play with. Which could mean Aoki + some depth. Or an upgrade in LF. Or perhaps a CFer and move Pagan to LF where his slowing down isn't such a problem.
I think they could find a way to land both Greinke and Leake, but they would have to go with Parker and Williamson for the OF or else try to make good on a dumpster dive.
DeleteI would rather work out a trade before giving up a first round draft pick for Samardzija. Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar are two names that seem attainable by trade. A draft pick for Greinke makes much more sense.
DeleteRather than landing the biggest pitching fish in the lake, I could see the Giants signing both Leake and Kazmir to shore up the rotation, and Zobrist for LF (with outside chance of Cespedes instead)
ReplyDeleteThat would definitely be Brian Sabean's MO. On the other hand, Giants ownership has, at times, insisted on going for the big splash. It worked out great with Barry Bonds, not so much with Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand.
Delete