The Detroit Tigers reportedly agreed to terms today on a free agent contract with RHP Jordan Zimmermann. The deal has yet to be confirmed by the Tigers. The price tag is pegged at 5 years/$110 M for an AAV of $22 M. Zimmermann has been a model of consistency for the past 5 seasons for the Washington Nationals, although 2014 was his best season and 2015 his least good(although it was still quite good). His cumulative line over that time frame is plus 7 games in 2010, is 70-50, 3.32, 1094 IP, 7.43 K/9 and 1.82 BB/9 with a cumulative fWAR of 20.3. His fWAR per season has ranged from 3.0 in 2015 to 5.3 in 2014. His FB velocity has belt steady at 93.0 MPH last year compared to a career average of 93.5.
The Tigers most likely decided they were not in contention for either to the top tier players, David Price or Zack Greinke so grabbed Zimm while the rest of MLB was focused on the lead group which was probably a smart strategy. Still, he did not come cheaply. Detroit is paying for an anticipated production of about 3.5 fWAR per season going forward which is just under his career average, although he has topped it just once so far in his career.
In addition, the Tigers take on at least a perceived risk of a long term commitment to a pitcher with a history of Tommy John surgery. Zimmermann is entering a window where historically, the incidence of recurrent UCL tears starts to dramatically increase. On top of that, successful recovery rates for second TJ surgeries is notoriously poor. Whereas a first time UCL tear would likely result in just one lost year out of the 5 in the contract, a second time tear likely busts the remainder of the contract.
So, how does Zimmermann's signing impact the Giants? More than one analyst predicted the Giants as the team signing him and he certainly had significant support among Giants fans. I have always been lukewarm at best on him due to the TJ issue which I think is bigger than it's being given credit for. The signing also likely creates a rough benchmark for both higher and lower rated players in the free agent market. I would probably slot Zimmermann between Johnny Cueto above and Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija below in the FA pitcher hierarchy with the 5/$110 representing an absolute floor for Cueto and an absolute ceiling for Leake and Samardzija.
It also takes away one fallback option should the Giants fail or give up their pursuit of one of the top tier pitchers, Price or Greinke. Leake is on record as saying he wants to choose a team and sign quickly. If somebody jumps up and convinces Leake to sign with them, who are the Giants left to choose from if they they strike out on Price/Greinke. So, Zimmermann's signing puts some pressure on the Giants to put their final, best offers up for the top tier guys and move on quickly if they get rejected.
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Although his performance has been a tick below Zimmermann's over the past 5 years, Leake has the advantage of being 2 years younger in baseball years and of not having previous TJ surgery. A reasonable estimate of a Leake contract might be the same total dollars with an extra season or two tacked on for a bit lower AAV.
ReplyDeleteFangraphs' FA Tracker projects 3.1 fWAR for Z and 2.9 for Kazmir in 2016, essentially the same but without a last draft pick for Kazmir.
ReplyDeleteI would like the Giants to sign Leake and one other top-pitcher. It's true Leake didn't pitch that well for the Giants this year, however his ERA+ was 111 for Cincinnati (106 for the year) and, for the most part Leak has generally had positive ERA+ numbers for his career.
ReplyDeleteSo, to me, he seems to be a nice, relatively steady pitcher with low mileage who will eat innings and give you a chance to win. He's not Bumgarner, he's not a sexy FA, but he's also not Lincecum, Cain, Hudson and Vogelsong. And when you look at his ERA+ for the season, he was also better than Heston and Peavy (by a point).
So,I think signing him and one big FA would give us a rotation that can keep us in playoff contention for the year.
Assuming the Giants stay at or under the "luxury tax" threshold, they might, barely, have enough room to sign both Leake and one of the elite FA pitchers. That would leave nothing for a CF upgrade or a bullpen booster. On the other hand, if they landed, say, Price and Leake, maybe they can get along with what they have in the OF and the bullpen? On the other hand, they just might decide to go a bit over the cap this season knowing they have another $25-35 M coming off the books next year!
DeleteWhat I had in mind earlier, in pointing out that Fangraphs projects Kazmir at a WAR for 2016 that is almost identical to Zimmermann's, and in fact also to Cueto's, is that the Giants might b able to get a pretty near elite pitcher in Kazmir, keep their draft pick, and also have enough money for Leake and some outfield help. Kazmir is projected to be worth one WAR less than Greinke in 2016, and the Giants could gain more than that difference with a better outfield.
ReplyDeleteI'd be OK with a haul of Leake, Kazmir, a CF and a left reliever like Tony Sipp.
DeleteIt is highly improbable that the Giants can upgrade both their defense and offense in CF. If they just need someone who can go get it out there, they could do a lot worse than Lil' Juan and he costs nothing.
DeleteCmon DBacks, don't you know the table is set for a minimum of $22MM a year for Cueto since Zimmermann signed. Nice try.
ReplyDeleteSorry, another wrong button. Bryce wanted to know how Leake and Zimmermann could be mentioned in the same conversation and mentioned that another TJ could be insured.
ReplyDelete1. Leake is 2 years younger.
2. Yeah, he may have only reached 200 innings once, but he comes close every year. No history of major injuries.
3. MLB contracts are generally NOT insured! Just ask yourself why any insurance company would underwrite a contract for a pitcher with a prior history of TJ. It just does not make sense. I challenge you to show me any evidence that a contract like Zimmermann's is insurable.
DrB, I have found a few articles stating that large contracts are insured for about 50-80% roughly of the contract. They are usually in increments such as 3 years and must be renewed. You are correct by saying an insurer wants nothing to do with pitchers with previous damage to pitching arm. Here is one article that is worth a read:
Deletehttp://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/02/understanding-the-business-of-baseball-insurance-on-player-contracts.html/
DrB, google long term MLB contracts with insurance policies? It is going to surprise you?
DeleteYou can insure ANYTHING if you are willing to pay a high enough premium. It was a few years ago, so I doubt I can find a link, but I seem to recall Brian Sabean addressing this issue. Yes, you can insure the player against injury, but if it's a pitcher, especially one who has an injury history, the premium is so high, it's probably 50/50 for the team to just take the full risk themselves. Again, knowing what we now know about the natural history of Tommy John surgery, would YOU underwrite a policy on Jordan Zimmermann's contract?
DeleteThere is another excellent article from Fangraphs entitled Baseball Insurance is Like a BlackHole. Yeah, it does not sound like Zimmermann is a guy who is insurable.
DeleteCome on, Doc. You didn't allow my post?
DeleteI hit the button by mistake. Unfortunately, once I do that I cannot get it back. Thanks for the comment.
Delete