Friday, October 3, 2014

Thoughts on the 2014 NLDS Giants vs Nationals: Keys to the Series

I'm not going to lie.  On paper, the Washington Nationals look like the best team in the postseason, and it's not particularly close.  They are so good that they will probably have a starting pitcher with an ERA of under 3 pitching out of the bullpen.  They have good hitters from 1-8 in the lineup.  If there is a weakness, it might be the bullpen, but that is only relatively speaking.  They have a strong bullpen too.

Of course, facing a team that is better on paper in the postseason is nothing new for the Giants.  The Phillies in 2010 looked every bit as imposing.  I mean, they had Roy Halladay coming off a postseason no-hitter against a very good hitting team!  We all know what happened in 2010!

This is a different Giants team than the one that took the field against the Phillies in the NLCS 4 years ago.  That team had a 1-2 SP combination of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain at or near their peak.  After that, the starting pitching might have been a bit shaky with a rookie Madison Bumgarner not quite the beast he is today and Jonathan Sanchez who could be brilliant but could also completely lose the strike zone at any time, and of course, Barry Zito who was left off the postseason roster entirely.  The offense was held together by bailing wire led by two guys, Andres Torres and Aubrey Huff having career years.  Buster Posey was a rookie, although a very good one.  Pablo Sandoval was on the bench do to conditioning issues and poor play.  The Brandons were in the minor leagues.  Their right and left fielders were reclamation projects picked of the waiver wire.  We won't even talk about the SS and 2B, two old players whose bodies were literally in the process of falling apart.  What the Giants did have was the best bullpen in baseball, so good that it gave them the best pitching staff 1-12 in baseball!  They also had a much despised and ridiculed manager who was secretly the best in baseball without anyone knowing it.

In many ways, the 2014 Giants are a better team than the 2010 team.  The lineup is younger, faster and stronger.  Aside from Madison Bumgarner, the starting pitching is probably not as strong, although Jake Peavy looks like a reasonable stand-in for Matt Cain.   The bullpen is similar but lacks the dominant closer they had in 2010.

So, despite the apparent dominance of the Washington Nationals, the Giants are not bereft of weapons, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.  What do the Giants need to do to win this series?  Here are my Keys to the Series:

1.  Get a great start from Jake Peavy and win game 1.  This sets up Madison Bumgarner pitching game 3 in SF with the series no worse than 1-1 and an outside chance of being able to go for the sweep.  So game 1, IMO is huge and it is not a stretch to think Peavy is up to the task.

2.  Get in front first.  It seems like the Giants have too many starters who take an inning or two to get comfortable and into a rhythm.  They cannot fall behind this Nationals team and expect to win.

3.  Play great defense.   The Nationals have a great defense too, but don't concede the field to them.  Don't give up runs you don't need to give up.  Keep the games close into the late innings.

4.  Pence and Pablo play within themselves.  At the end of the regular season, it looked like both players were trying the win the game in 1 AB on every AB.  They did better against the Pirates in the Wild Card game.  They need to keep that going.  This series will be won by a long lineup that keeps the line moving.  There may be situations where they have to swing for the fences, but in most cases, the HR's will come from guys like Brandon Crawford in the Wild Card Game who was just trying to hit a Sac Fly.

5.  Brandon Belt.  Not sure what it is, but I think this guy is going to have a huge postseason and he's the type of hitter that can carry a team if he's hot.

6.  Bruce Bochy.  Boch was a difference maker in both 2010 and 2012 and in the just completed Wild Card Game.  He might be the best manager in baseball and is one championship short of being a no brainer for the HOF.  Matt Williams has done a nice job where others have failed in Washington, but this is his first postseaon as a manager.  He might be starting a HOF managing career himself, but chances are he is not.  Look for Bochy pushing the right buttons to be a difference maker once again.

What are your keys to the 2014 NLDS?

18 comments:

  1. i think everyone saw last night that the post season is nothing like the regular

    had it been, the halos shouldve pounded the royals at home

    saying that, despite what the degenerate odds makers have said, i believe the nats are the best team in the post and are designed to win in the post season

    the only way to beat them is to make mistake free ball....and figure out a way to get aoki on this team

    bacci

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  2. DocB, you pretty much nailed it.

    The Nats have shown they have firepower aplenty to win this series with dominate pitching, defense, a long lineup and their bullpen. Plus they got ownage on us this year. Plus I don't see Williams throwing it away ala Dusty. This could get ugly.

    My keys:

    1A+. Get in front first. Take a cue from MadBum. Work it out in the warmup pen session and bring your best stuff to the mound from pitch one. No lost innings. They cannot fall behind the Nats and expect to win.

    2. The bullpen better be ready and effective. Odds are they ain't getting 9 shutdown from Peavy, Huddy, Voggie, or Petit. The pen must, "Always be closing." as Larry Bear says. Don't care if it's the 4th, 6th or 9th inning, come in and shut it down. I believe Hunter Strickland could be a difference maker here.

    3. Get a great start from Jake Peavy and win game 1. Peavy must set the tone. Win game 1 and get in front first. I believe they can get to Strasburg, and Peavy has got to keep them in it until they do.

    4. Don't let the RF wind tunnel in Nationals Park do you in. Giants pitchers are used to ATT, where balls go to die in RF. Not so in Nats Park. This is a park adjustment the Giants have been unable to master so far.

    5. Match the Nats defense and long lineup. Play 'em to a draw here and win by getting ahead first.

    6. Relish the underdog. Not one "National Pundit" will pick the Giants. Enjoy the ride boys, I know I will.

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    1. Well Strickland was a difference maker - not sure which way.

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  3. let me add this....hamilton's performance last night is why the giants should not activate morse

    bacci

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  4. I think we have proven we have the fire power to match the Nationals when we are hitting. Our defense is solid, our pen is solid and our bench can be stonger depending on the final roster. IMO, it's going to come down to the starting pitchers keeping us in the ball game. We keep it close,we have a chance. We are not going to be able to come from behind by too many runs. Getting a win today would be a great start.

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  5. A factor for both teams tonight is 70% chance of rain forecast during game.
    I think the X factor is Belt.

    Richard in Winnipeg

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  6. Panik hit his first and only HR in this park. He got 3 hits against Pirates also. Belt is pin a groove - and working the count as well. I think these two hitters can come up big in the series...

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  7. I see we have kept Gary Brown on the NLDS roster. Maybe Boch has seen a couple Royals' Games lately and has his sights set on a bullpen arm for the Nats that doesn't hold runners on well? Wouldn't surprise me at all if Boch has picking on a pitcher or two in mind there.

    I have a feeling Panda and Belt are going to be our guys to carry us in this series. Panda can foul off a ridiculous amount of pitches and isn't impressed with fastballs. He also has some confidence against power arms in the playoffs (see Verlander). Belt just seems like he's dialed in, focused and ready to go. I wouldn't be surprised to see his short swing get the ball into that wind tunnel once or twice in Washington.

    Really, the heart of our lineup is going to be important. You said it: they can't be swinging for the fences, they need to get on base and move some guys over, give Belt, Crawford and Ishikawa some runners-on situations to hit in.

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  8. Offensive side: Blanco and Panik getting on for the heart of the order, who just have to stay within themselves. Keep the line moving. No one player is likely to win this series singlehandedly. Could Panik be our third consecutive Little Second Base Sparkplug?

    Pitching side: Veteran experience from the starters... battle it out to get to the bullpen. Giants can win a bullpen war against the Nats.

    Defense: Must play heady defense with no lapses.

    Managing: Boch just needs to do what has gotten him here. Capitalize on Williams' inexperience and force him out of his comfort zone and into overmanaging.

    Intangibles: Even Year Magic. Stay loose. Pence and Peavy rallying the team in their own special way.

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  9. Good call on the keys to the game. I think that the intangibles that Baseball Junkie mentions above is the most important. DVRed the game so I look forward to watching it (hey, it worked in 2010 & 2012, so why jinx the mojo now).

    Let's Go Huddy!

    And a reluctant let's go Cards...

    NWGiantsFan
    DtF!!!

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    1. I'm torn. I want the Dodgers to lose... and I want the Giants to beat them in the Championship Series for the pennant. Still, I can't root for them right now.

      I'll just be content with rooting for the Giants for now. Great win tonight!

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    2. I think it is always best to root for the Dodgers to lose. Get rid of em as quickly as possible.

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    3. Yeah, I was a bit torn it would be great to clinch the pennant against them. But I agree with Doc...best the Doyers lose,,,second only to Los Gigantes win!

      NWGiantsFan
      DtF!!!

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  10. Can't STAND the shear ignorance of the announcers, "You can't quantify the Giants success is stats. We don't understand how they do it?" And then they go on to make a BIG deal about Harper, Strasburg, et. al.

    Who the F won the game? Giants, thank you.

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  11. someone needs to explain to me why pablo was lifted for arias in the 9th

    bacci

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    1. Uh...because Arias is a better fielder overall?

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  12. Arias over his career has greater range at third than Sandoval (compare UZR/150), and Bochy apparently thinks the difference is current and significant. He's made this substitution a number of times in the last month or two.

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    1. Yup, standard late inning defensive substitution. Where've you been, Bacci?

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