Saturday, January 22, 2011

Down on the Farm: DrB's 2011 Giants Top 50 Prospects- #5 Francisco Peguero

#5 Francisco Peguero, OF. BD: 6/1/1988. 5'11", 185 lbs. B-R, T-R.

A+: .329/.358/.488, 19 2B, 16 3B, 10 HR, 40 SB, 22 CS. DWL: .265/.283/.342.

Francisco Peguero backed up a 2009 season in which he hit .353 at 2 levels with another fine performance in 2010. In the process, he had a major jump in his IsoP from 0.090 to 0.159 putting up a "quadruple double," double digits in doubles, triples, HR's and SB's. After a slow start in the Dominican Winter League, Peguero caught fire at the end raising his BA by about 15 points and hitting .371 over his last 10 games. Peguero is a wiry, athletic fellow who, despite his relatively short stature, still looks like he could fill out his frame a bit. He's a strong defensive OF with enough speed to play CF and a strong enough arm to play RF. He played mostly RF for San Jose. On the surface, he seems like a classic leadoff type hitter, but I think he will end up with enough power to hit farther down in the lineup where his lack of patience and the plate won't hurt so much.

Although I think Peguero is a fine prospect, there are some negatives, the most glaring being his total lack of patience at the plate. It's true, there is no reason to take walks if you can hit with a BA in the mid .300's, but unlike Gary Brown, Peguero has never adjusted his approach during cold spells. Hey, maybe his nickname should be Hacman II! The early move to RF is a bit troubling too. While he may have enough speed to play CF and enough arm to play RF, he also may be a "tweener" with not enough D for CF and not quite enough power for RF. His relatively high CS rate is a bit troubling too. He is either not being selective enough in his SB attempts or he just isn't as fast as he appears to be.

Right now, I have Gary Brown as the Giants CF of the future with Peguero the front runner for RF, but he will have plenty of competition for that position from inside and outside the organization.

10 comments:

  1. I really hope he is not part of the Giants future. Peguero is supposedly a hard worker and great teammate, but will be frustrating to watch in the Sandoval/Velez mold, with his talent putting him somewhere inbetween.

    He could be valuable 4th OF, platooning in right (maybe Parker or a vet) and backing up center, but his tools may get him more PT than he deserves. Best case the Giants trade Peguero to a bad team that can afford to play him everyday.

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  2. I noticed they brought Juan Perez to ST but not Peguero. When I saw them Perez was on a hot streak so naturally I came away with Perez as the better of the two. I realize 3 years difference but I have grown worn of the out of the strike zone hackers...

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  3. Peguero is already on the 40-man roster, thus will naturally be in ST. That is for non-roster invitees.

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  4. My bad... I think I will bad order my brain. I was just talking to my grandchild about the 40 man roster. I think will release myself to assignment... Thnx anon

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  5. I hope every single one of these prosects are part of a very successful Giants future, but I know not all of them will be.

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  6. If I had to bet I don't think Peguero will be a starter for the Giants but he may be for another team. With a WS win I truly think the Giants will spring for a top name outfielder if he becomes available when Rowand's contract expires in 2 years.. On my wishlist is Markakis, Pence or Braun. I just don't think the idea of Peguero excites anybody nor brings more people to the ballpark. But, I could be completely if he goes crazy like Belt. Feel free to repsond.

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  7. Nick Markakis has been a bit of an enigma as his power numbers have been sliding for several years and cratered last year. Hunter Pence has been one of the most remarkably consistent players in baseball the last 3 seasons. I'd love to have him on the team. Very strange looking dude though. Not sure I could stand looking at his mug on TV game after game all season long. Braun, of course, is probably the top offensive OF in baseball. Any fan would be happy to have him on the team. He looks like he has Graves Disease, but it sure hasn't affected his play.

    I've slowly learned not to make too many bold predictions about the future of any of these prospects. It's fun to dream about what they might become, but you have to regard any prospect with a healthy skepticism. It also works the other way and you don't want to prematurely write anybody off.

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  8. Yeah, bold predictions is much too hard, really. As El Lefty Malo reported a few years back, I think it was a quote from Baseball Prospectus, every farm system has roughly two starters and two bench/relief players in their system in any season. So most farm systems don't really have much in them and there will always be players like Jonathan Sanchez, Brian Wilson, Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, Brandon Belt, who are drafted lately or not highly regarded who rise to become significant cogs on the team.

    Even if you look at the top experts top 100 lists, while there are many big hits, there are the big misses too, Andy Marte, Sean Burroughs, the A's and Met's Four Aces (where none of them became aces), etc. Not that the lists are not valuable, but that even for the top prospects, there are big mistakes made.

    I would rather the Giants not spend any money on any of these outfielders. I would rather they spend their money on keeping their own player on the team into their free agents years. Zito and Rowand end of contracts will free up cash, but even that won't be enough to keep Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Wilson, Posey, Sandoval, and hopefully Belt and Wheeler, should they develop.

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  9. I'm scared he's going to end up like Velez. I know he is ranked a lot higher, but Velez was a very toolsy, scrawnny player with potential that was never reached. Peguero seems like a high ranked sort than Velez was, with more pop as well, but I hope the Giants give him time when he comes up. Velez got a decent amount of time and proved a decent fill in, but hopefully Peguero jumps off like Velez never could.

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  10. Is it unrealistic to think Sandoval with less pop, more speed? I mean in terms of average, like Sandy did his first year and second, smackin line drives all over the place for doubles(or in Peguero's case there could be double digit triples in store here) Me likey :)

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