Sunday, January 2, 2011

Hot Stove Update: What's Left?

I used to love to play armchair GM in the offseason and think about signings and trades I would make as GM of the Giants. Over the years, I've discovered armchair GM'ing is mostly a futile exercise and ultimately frustrating. Whattheheck though? The Hot Stove has died down to mere embers and we need something to break up the monotony of reviewing last year's top prospects.

mlbtraderumors.com recently identified backup shortstop and 6'th starter as the two items of unfinished business for the Giants. Most of discussion has centered around the mini-drama of Edgar Renteria and his characterization of the Giants offer of $1 million for 1 year as "insulting." Now, Edgar Renteria has done a lot of good things in his career, not the least of which was hitting the HR that won the World Series for the Giants, so I don't really blame him for feeling like he deserves some respect. On the other hand, Edgar is clearly nearing the end of his illustrious career and well, baseball is a business. Until Edgar hit that HR, the $18 million he got from the Giants over the last 2 seasons insulted the sensibilities of a lot of fans. One could easily make a case for both sides owing the other something here.

Things had kind of died down on the Edgar Renteria front until this last week when it was reported the Reds had made an offer. I don't know the dollar amount, but Edgar responded by announcing he intends to play 2 more seasons, the strong implication being that the Reds had offered 1 year and Edgar is looking for a 2 year offer. Now, I wouldn't be at all against the Giants sweetening their offer to $2 M as an appreciation for Edgar's WS heroics, but 2 years for a guy who's spent almost as much time on the DL as playing the last 2 years is not something the Giants are going to do, nor should they.

So, what other options might the Giants have if Edgar gets something more to his liking from another team? There isn't a whole lot out there, but the cupboard isn't completely bare either:

Orlando Cabrera- John Shea of sfgate.com recently commented that the Giants have kicked the tires on OCab. Now, I'd be pretty disappointed if OCab was the starting shortstop next year, although he'd probably provide better D than Miggy T. As a backup option though, I'd definitely be down with it.

Nick Punto- The Giants have recently gone to extremes in roster flexibillity and Punto would fit right in here as he is a jack of all trades. He also plays plus D at shortstop. He's not going to give you much in the way of offense, but he would likely be better at the plate than Emmanuel Burriss.

Bobby Crosby- Crosby is a guy who could probably be picked up on the cheap. He's been a negative of D the last 2 seasons and he'll never hit for more than about .230, but he will hit an occasional HR. Who knows, maybe he could be a Juan Uribe type reclamation project?

Augie Ojeda- another versatile guy who will give you a slight plus on D. He's good at drawing walks, but doesn't give you anything else at the plate.

Cristian Guzman- This one seems like the least likely option, so he's probably who Sabes will end up signing and it will probably work out pretty well. Guzman is only 33 years old, I thought he was in his late 30's. He has been essentially a replacement player for the last two seasons, but sometimes these guys have an "indian summer" in the autumn of their careers.

The Giants could go with Fontenot as the only backup MI. He is probably adequate as an occasional fill-in with the hope that Brandon Crawford shows enough by mid-season if a shortstop replacement is needed for an extended period. That plan would not leave the Giants with much teeth in their threat to demote Pablo if he comes to camp out of shape. Perhaps DeRosa could play 3B in that case leaving Tejada at shortstop? This is where I always start to get a headache with these analyses! In any event, it seems likely that the Giants will try to sign another player whose main duty would be backup shortstop.

Signing another infielder would leave the Giants with a major roster crunch, probably a nice problem to have, but one the Giants may have difficulty resolving the way they would want. The Giants already have 25 players who are "locks" to make the 25 man roster to start the season, and that's if Brandon Belt starts the year in the minors and they only carry 11 pitchers:

8 position starters- C Buster Posey(1B), 1B Aubrey Huff(LF), 2B Freddy Sanchez, 3B Pablo Sandoval(1B), SS Miggy T(3B), LF Pat Burrell, CF Andres Torres(RF, LF), RF Cody Ross(CF, LF). 5 SP- Timmy, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, MadBum, Barry Zito. 1 Closer- Brian Wilson. 5 Relievers- Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez, Ramon Ramirez. 6 Bench- Eli Whiteside(C), Mike Fontenot(2B, SS, 3B), Travis Ishikawa(1B), Nate Schierholtz(RF, LF, CF), Aaron Rowand(CF), Mark DeRosa(LF, 3B, 2B, 1B, SS?).

Questions: 1. Will Pablo be the starter at 3B? 2. Will DeRosa's surgery hold this time and allow him to play? 3. Will Freddy Sanchez start the season on the DL after yet another shoulder surgery?

Assuming everybody is healthy and ready to go, adding another shortstop to the mix would mean at least 1 and likely 2 players who are current "locks" would need to go. If Belt has a huge spring training and forces his way onto the team, that number would increase to 3.

Who's on the bubble?

I think just about everybody, including the Giants, would like to see Aaron Rowand somewhere else next year. Sabes has certainly gone about his roster building this offseason as though Rowand isn't in his plans at all. The problem is how do you make that happen? I believe $24 M would be the biggest contract the Giants have ever swallowed, but maybe it will come to that? How much relief could they get in a trade? $3 M/season or $6 M total would seem to be the absolute upper limit they could hope for. Then, you have to find a team that needs an aging CF who can't hit any more. Good luck with that!

The Giants have several players to back up first base. I love Travis Ishikawa's defense and his pinch hitting, but can they afford to keep a bench player who only plays 1B? He would seem to be #2 on the bubble after Aaron Rowand.

Nate Schierholtz- absolutely love his D in RF, but if Belt forces his way onto the team and Huff moves to LF, Nate's fate would probably be sealed even if Rowand and Travis are already gone.

Guillermo Mota was signed to a minor league deal and I have a hard time seeing the Giants going with just 11 pitchers for very long into the season.

As for 6'th starter, the options are still too numerous for any type of analysis. Sabes will probably make 1 or 2 minor league deals near the start of spring training. I actually wouldn't mind Wellemeyer as long as it was strictly a minor league deal and he started the season in Fresno.

How do you see the roster crunch shaking out?

11 comments:

  1. Pablo will start at 3B this year, for two reasons.

    First, he wasn't actually bad last year -- he was slightly below average with the bat (95 wRC+) and basically an average fielder (0.3 UZR/150). Which adds up to a 1.9 WAR -- just below a league average player. If last year is near his floor and 2009 is near his ceiling, than expecting something in between in reasonable, which is an above-average ML player at worst.

    Second, there isn't an upgrade to him outside of Beltre and we're not going to sign him. Anyone else that takes over 3B would be a major, major shock to put up 2 WAR over the course of the year.

    The only way he isn't the starting 3B is if he eats his way out of the spot. I don't think that's likely.

    I think that Rowand is absolutely useless on the Giants next year as the team is currently constructed. He's a right-handed bat, so he doesn't have pinch-hitting value. His defense has drastically declined and he plays the same position as our best defender (plus, Cody Ross can back up CF more than adequately). He doesn't run well any more, so he doesn't have much pinch running value. If he weren't due $24 million over the next two years, he'd be the very easy choice for who doesn't make the team. The only way he gets traded is if we eat 75% of his salary (which Sabean won't), or if it's for another bad contract. If that contract is for more than the two years or over the $24 million we already owe Rowand, we should walk away. I'd prefer to just cut him if those were our choices.

    But, given that his contract is what it is, Ishikawa is next in line to go -- especially if Belt is on the team.

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  2. Dave,

    Great take, which more or less means I agree with you. Really the only way I can see Pablo not starting on Opening Day is if he plays terribly in the Spring and in some miraculous event, Mark DeRosa turns in to David Wright.

    Unfortunately, Rowand, who is a great guy, just has no place in SF. It would be a major mistake in my opinion to keep a $24mil 5th (or 6th) outfielder who provides absolutely nothing the Giants don't already have.

    As for the other Giants that could potentially be on the bubble:

    Ishikawa, although having a great season as a defensive replacement and lefty pinch-hitter, really loses value with Belt's rise. Belt offers a lefty bat with much more potential AND what we are told is plus defense. Couple that with Huff's lefty bat and ability to play 1B and Ishikawa is expendable, but he is obviously a major league player as a pinch hit, defensive substitute and will find a place.

    For me, Schierholtz would be a tough guy to watch get cut loose. His arm in the OF is not plus, it is elite. In a strange way I would almost like to see a young team hand him a spot to play 100 games and see what he could do.

    * Bottom line is this: Fans should love these problems. When your team has 3 legitimate big league players who could have a hard time even making your roster, you know something good is brewing, it is an enviable position to be in, I just hope the Giants make the right moves.

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  3. Emmanuel Burress should be the back up ss. Actually, he should be the starting short stop! He is an excellent bunter, he has the potential to steal between 30 and 50 bases, does not strike out a lot at all, and is realistically able to hit around .280. On top of that, he has excellent range and has gold glove caliber potential, and he's cheap, so why are we paying 6 mil for a useless short stop in Tejada and now trying to get a back up short stop when we already have one? Stupid of Sabean to forget about him, we have a terrible gm.

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  4. Anon,

    Burriss is realistically able to hit around .280? Not sure where that idea comes from but it's definitely not realistic. Hope that whole post was tongue-in-cheek.

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  5. I like Burriss, but at best he's a starting 2B, I have not heard one good comment about his ability to start at SS from any of the prospect experts, plus if the Giants really thought he was a viable starting SS, they wouldn't even bother to have him start at 2B in 2010, they would have just played him at SS.

    If Sabean was so stupid and terrible, how did the Giants win the World Series Championship?

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  6. nate's trade value may not be high, but there are a bunch of teams who would love to have him on their squads

    in other news, former giants farm hand and current o's rp, alfredo simon, has just been charged in a double homicide in the dr

    wish players would be more careful when going home to the dr....that place is terrible

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  7. If Burriss is realistically able to hit .280, steal 40 bases and win a gold glove, I think we should expect Brandon Belt to hit .390, 45 homers and drive in 140...

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  8. JH,

    I like Belt's chances better between those two! LOL!

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  9. I think the Giants management is counting on a DL shuffle and 11 pitchers to hold onto as many of their players as possible in an attempt to trade for some value.

    If Rowand stays, I think Schierholtz is first to go.
    If Belt plays himself onto the team, then Ishi goes.
    If the Giants do acquire a FA backup MI, then I wouldn't be surprised to see Fontenot go.

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  10. I've had a thought that some of the arbitration guys may have trade value. Fontenot would be one that other teams might have interest in. Also, one of the relievers could get a nice return.

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  11. Burress actually hit .280 in the only season where he was given over 200 at bats. He was batting over .280 when he began the year as a starting 2b a few years ago, and then went into an 0 for 25 slump that saw his avg fall and then the giants prematurely demoted him and watched as he got hurt his toe and sat out the rest of the year. If he were a veteran, Sabean would have let him go through an 0 for 40 slump(like Rowand nearly did) and stick with him. Did you not watch him play defense when he was playing 2b? He has excellent range. And it's laughable that some people think the Giants won the world series because of Sabean. We won because of our homegrown pitching talent, which credit goes to our head of scouting department and our minor league coaches. A while back Sabean was quoted as saying "I'd rather not waste money on the draft." This is the guy that signed type A free agent Michael Tucker before the Royals even got the chance to decline to offer him arbitration, which they surely would have done. We only have Lincecum because he was too high of a pick for Sabean to give up. Bumgarner was huge for us, giving us a number 5 starter that could win games instead of the guy that Sabean signed to play over him, Wellemeyer, who handicapped us by giving us an automatic loss every 5 days. Molina was chosen to play over Posey, and he went on to barely hit .200 and slug under .300 for 2 months, also costing us wins. The guy that says Pablo is not a for sure starter, when he hit .330 two years ago with 25 hrs and over a .500 slugging, yet he guarantees a cruddy veteran like Tejada who barely hits .270 with no pop and horrible D that he is for sure our starting ss. If Pablo were a 34 year old with more experience on the down side of his career instead of a 24 year old up and comer who already has an all star season in his two full seasons, he would be our starting 3b no doubt about it We won IN SPITE of our GM, ONLY because our homegrown starting pitchers and closer were so unbelievably historically awesome that he could go out and get any mediocre offensive talent to put up the measely 2 or 3 runs that our pitchers need to get the win. You guys don't know your baseball

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