Fantasy Focus: Ranking Jonathan Sanchez

As if Matt Cain wasn't enough, Jonathan Sanchez is another Giants pitcher who confounds sabermetric analysts and thus is creating a good deal of anxiety among fantasy baseball managers about where to rank/draft him for 2011. I will again pick on Jeffrey Gross of Hardball Times who ranked Sanchez #62 behind pitchers like James Shields, Scott Baker, Brian Matusz, Gio Gonzalez, Travis Wood and Marc Rzepczynski. #62 doesn't even get him in the starting rotation of a 10 team league, although if you are in a league with a big bench and can re-set your roster daily, you can run rotations that are much bigger than 5 men.

Now, Sanchez put up a line last year that was a whole lot better than the 62'nd best fantasy starter in baseball: 13-9, ERA= 3.07. 205 K's with a WHIP of 1.27. So why is Jeffrey Gross ranking him #62 and saying things like if you draft him at all, you better have a WHIP anchor? Well, Jonathan Sanchez has had a very interesting progression over the last 4 seasons:

ERA: 5.88, 5.01, 4.24, 3.07.

WHIP: 1.63, 1.45, 1.37, 1.23.

H/9: 9.87, 8.77, 7.44, 6.61.

K/9: 10.73, 8.94, 9.75, 9.54.

BB/9: 4.85, 4.27, 4.85, 4.47.

Note that Sanchez has dramatically reduced his ERA and WHIP almost exclusively by reducing his H/9. Since his K/9 and BB/9 and HR/9 have remained essentially constant, it is easy to see that his BABIP(Batting Average on Balls In Play) has also dropped dramatically. It is virtually gospel among sabermetricians that over a large sample size, BABIP varies little from .300 for any pitcher. By last season, Sanchez had gotten his down to a ridiculously low .265 which any good sabermetrician will tell you is likely due to luck and is unsustainable. So, what about Jonathan Sanchez? Is he a guy you should stay away completely in the draft, or someone you should be thinking about for your #3 starter? His line last year would indicate he is at least a #3 starter, but his peripheral stats suggest that he is in for a huge regression and will ruin your ERA/WHIP categories in fantasy ball. Well, as you might expect, I have some thoughts on the subject:

1. There are pitchers who seem to be able to maintain low BABIPs over a large sample size. Matt Cain is one who has done so for most of his MLB career. Most of these pitchers are flyball pitchers reflecting the fact that flyballs in play are more likely to turn into outs than are ground balls which may find their way between fielders at fluctuating rates. Sanchez may be one of these pitchers. he's not as extreme in his flyball tendencies as Cain with a GO/AO of about 1, but there is another factor to consider. His high K/9 may be a marker for an ability to induce weak contact on the part of batters, especially as he has gained experience in the league.

2. If Sanchez' H/9 had remained stable for 3 seasons then suddenly dropped to his remarkable low level last year, I would be the first to say it was likely a fluke and unsustainable. Practically any stat that takes a 1 year excursion is probably a fluke. There is no reason why H/9 would be any different and a lot of reasons why it wouldn't. The "problem" with Sanchez is that his H/9 did not just suddenly drop. It has been on a steady, dramatic downhill course for 4 full seasons now. I regard a trend over 4 seasons to be no different than maintaining a steady state over 4 full seasons. When you get a sample size that big, it's not luck!

3. People also point to Sanchez' LOB% as being unusually high and likely unsustainable. Well, first of all, a pitcher with a K/9 of 9.4 just might be able to dial it up a notch in a tight situation. Certainly he is more likely to be able to get a couple of K's to get out of a bases loaded 1 out jam a lot more than the average pitcher. Secondly, I have a theory about Giants pitchers in general which may explain some of the anomalies we see in their secondary stats, which brings us to point #4.

4. Despite most of their pitchers having high flyball rates, the Giants last year tied with 3 other teams for having the 3'rd lowest HR's allowed in baseball. You might be tempted to say that it's due to the park they pitch in, but the home/away splits are roughly equal. At the same time, they had the 3'rd worst BB/9 in all of baseball. I can't prove it but I believe, after watching a whole lot of Giants baseball, that the Giants have an organizational philosophy of being risk averse to allowing HR's. You know how a lot of us Giants fans have been frustrated over the years by watching pitchers with good stuff nibble and nibble and walk batters and allow way too many runners on base? Well, I have come to believe that a lot of that is by design. Now, if you or I were in Dave Righetti's shoes and a pitcher was nibbling away like Jonathan Sanchez often does, and Sanchez gives up a hit the walks a batter then goes 3-1 on the next batter, we'd probably go fuming out to the mound and say something like "just throw strikes, dammit!" I just have this feeling that Dave Righetti goes out there with a completely different message. I bet Dave Righetti goes out there and says something like, "now remember, you still have an open base. You don't have to give in to this guy. Make him hit your pitch. If he walks, you'll get the next guy." I think the Giants have an organizational philosophy, while not trying to walk batters, of thinking it's better to give up a walk to load the bases than to throw the ball down the middle of the plate and risk a 3 run HR. I think they trust their pitchers enough that they think they can be both careful with pitch location and still keep their walk rates at a manageable level. Most HR's are not lazy flyballs that happen to carry over the fence by luck. Most HR's are hit off "mistakes" and are crushed. They are no doubters! I believe the Giants have found a systematic way to limit their "mistake" pitches by preferring to give up a few more walks than groove a pitch to get a strike and risk having it leave the yard.

Jonathan Sanchez is an emotional guy. His major problems have been maintaining his composure on the mound and a lack of stamina. Both of those factors improved last season and should continue to improve as he gains experience and maturity. With his ridiculously good stuff, as manifested by his K/9, all he has to do is lower his walk rate just a bit and he can be one of the elite pitchers in baseball, but again, some of those walks may be helping him keep his HR/9 down thus contributing to his success. His volatility on the mound might make me hesitate to make draft him as my #3 starter in a fantasy league, but he has just as much chance of performing like a #1 starter next year as he does to have a major regression.