Monday, January 31, 2011

Down on the Farm: DrB's 2011 Giants Top 50 Prospects- #16 Seth Rosin

#16 Seth Rosin, RHP. BD: 11/2/1988. 6'5", 235 lbs. B-R, T- R.

Short Season(Salem-Keizer): 1-1, 4.91, 11 IP, 1 BB, 9 K's, GO/AO= 1.67. College(Minnesota): 9-4, 4.72, 103 IP, 12 BB, 93 K's.

You may have noticed a paucity of highly ranked pitching prospects on this list. After years of having pitchers dominate Giants top prospect lists, it seems strange the the lions's share of top prospects in the system are position players. I am optimistic that this imbalance will be corrected in the near future and a big part of that is because of pitchers in the system like Seth Rosin. He is at the top of a fairly long list of pitching prospects in the system with great arms and tremendous upside who have a great chance to break out within the next two years.

Seth Rosin is a big kid who was the Friday starter for Minnesota, a well respected D1 college program. Although his ERA was not spectacular, his K and BB stats reflected a much better performance. His season culminated in a dominating performance against none other than Cal State Fullerton in CSF's home stadium in the college playoffs. In my own pre-draft analysis, I had Rosin right up there with other college starters like Deck McGuire, Asher Wojciekowski, and others who went much higher in the draft, so I think the Giants got tremendous value when they were able to grab him in the 4'th round.

Rosin is listed at 6'5", but other reports have him at 6'6" and even 6'7". John Klima has extensive scouting reports, writeups, video and a Q/A on Seth on his website baseballbeginnings.com. If you go to the site, just type Seth's name into the search function and you will find a treasure trove on information. Make sure to look at he scouting video. Trust me, it's awesome!

Seth throws two fastballs, a 4 seamer that goes 94-96 MPH and a 2 seamer that goes 92-94. He has 80 command of both pitches on both corners of the plate. His best secondary pitch is a changeup that goes in the mid 70's, so there is as nice differential there. He throws it with the same arm angle and motion so he hides it well too. He had a rudimentary curveball in college that he seldom used, but the Giants had him throwing a hard slider in the NWL. If he can put those fastballs in the inside corner in the pros, he will leave a lot of wood splinters scattered around the ball fields he plays on!

He got off to a nice start in Salem-Keizer until giving up 4 runs in his last outing that blew up his ERA. The 9/1 K/BB is right in line with his college performance. The Giants shut him down after that due to fatigue from the long college season that extended into the college playoffs. His arm is reportedly healthy and he's spending his offseason working on conditioning.

I think his likely destination is San Jose. I can hardly wait to see him pitch! Last year, BA ran an article saying that fastball command is the single best predictor of future success for pitching prospects. If that is true, Seth might just be the best pitching prospect in the entire 2010 draft! He should be a fast mover in the system with the potential for a huge breakout and long term dominance. He's my #1 sleeper/breakout prospect from a system that is full of sleepers and breakout potential.

6 comments:

  1. Agreed all around, doc. In fact, I have him ranked #9 - and I think it's likely he's in the top 5 at this time next year.

    Klima's reports have me convinced. He seems like the prototypical Giants selection in the 4th round, with huge upside.

    After first being rather disappointed with last year's draft, I'm now really looking forward to following Mike Kickham, Seth Rosin, Heath Hembree, and Chuckie Jones (each of whom I have in my Top 10). It's nice to have exciting players in the system for a change.

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  2. Wow. You, Kilma and Fla-Giant over at McCoveyChronicles have convinced me on Rosin. I'm very hopeful.

    This year will be interesting to watch the development of his secondary pitches. To that end, I actually hope we see a spike in his BB-rate early in the season, which would tell me that he's working on new pitches and not just sticking with what he has to overpower lower-level hitters.

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  3. I think he'll be the next Randy Johnson! Go Seth!

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  4. Well, RJ and Seth are both tall anyway.

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  5. I'm excited about Rosin, too. If there is one thing the Giants know and develop well it is pitching. But these days, with so much scouting and information on prospects readily available every team should have been on Rosin and he sounds like he should have been drafted earlier. I haven't read any negatives but does anyone know of any red flags?

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  6. Hey Junkie,

    Thanks for the comment, as always. Fla-Giant brought up an interesting concern that maybe Seth is too obsessed with keeping his walk rate down and this may cause him to make some of his pitches too hittable.

    I have a theory that the Giants have an organizational philosophy of being HR averse and would rather give up a few more walks than risk giving up HR's off pitches over the fat part of the plate. If Seth is too walk averse, I'm sure the Giants have already started working on convincing him that his command is good enough to not give in to hitters.

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